Precious Metals Weekly

Transcription

1 Issue th March 216 Gold ETF holdings continue to rise, up 11t in the last week, while net long COMEX positions have reached 533t, their highest levels since February last year. Silver The Au:Ag ratio now stands at 81:1, falling from last week s highs of 84:1. Platinum The platinum:gold discount sits at $269, having narrowed from $315 mid last week. Palladium Total US car sales grew by 6.8% in February to 1.3M units, the best February performance since 21. Precious Metals Weekly 216 off to a strong start for investment demand The jump in gold ETF holdings during early 216 has been widely publicised, with the ytd total over 26t, or 18%, higher compared with end-215 levels. Retail buying of coins and bars has also improved, but less dramatically. Below, we draw on our latest field research, highlighting key trends, for both gold and silver, in particular the strength of consumer price expectations and what this may suggest for retail demand over the rest of 216. Looking first at the US, both gold and silver Eagle coin demand has jumped over the first two months, by 29% and 126% y-o-y respectively. Although each market is susceptible to a January rush, where retail investors are attracted by the first issue of coins in the new year, this does not explain still robust February sales. In essence, investors have been attracted by the run-up in both gold and silver prices. However, the ytd gold demand has also benefited from a relative lack of coins in the secondary market. During early 214 and 215, high-net-worth (HNW) liquidations emerged, which meant there was less need for dealers to buy newly minted pieces. However, this year there appears to have been no repeat of this selling back, which in turn has boosted demand for 216-dated bullion coins. The other point to note is that HNW selling was not accompanied by widespread retail liquidations. In other words, retail holdings of gold coins and small bars in the US have been relatively sticky. The same is true for silver, where retail

2 Metals Focus would like to thank the following companies for their generous support in sponsoring the Precious Metals Weekly Brazilian Gold Refinery

3 Precious Metals Weekly, Issue 141-8th March US Gold Bullion Eagle Sales, Koz purchases of privately made 1oz rounds have been relatively strong over the first couple of months. This offers an interesting contrast with silver ETF holdings, where ytd demand has risen by 1%. Although gold ETF demand is weighted towards HNW and institutional players, for silver, there is a bias in favour of retail activity. The apparent disparity between silver ETF and coin and bar demand in the US may reflect the different nature of retail buyers in the two markets. In particular, a key reason for strong coin and bar demand has been a growing mistrust of the US administration (the past few months have also seen a surge in small firearm sales in some states). As a result, these investors are often interested in taking physical delivery. Overall though, although retail buying of silver in the US should remain elevated, especially during an election year, the 216 total may fall short of last year s record level. Source: US Mint 12 Turkish Gold Coin Sales (kg) Across the Atlantic in Europe, and Germany, the continent s largest physical investment market is also enjoying relatively healthy gold demand (for both bars and coins, also locally-listed ETFs). Following robust demand in late 215, and then a slowdown in January, the jump in (both euro and dollar) prices in February attracted retail buyers, a trend which has seemingly carried over into early March Source: Darphane Moving to the key Asian markets, physical gold demand has been relatively strong during early 216, notably in India and China. Looking first at India, healthy retail price expectations lifted demand in January, although February saw a marked slowdown in advance of the (endmonth) Budget. As a result, we expect March to see a resumption of Indian retail buying, which should in turn contribute to double-digit growth for the full-year total. In contrast, silver investment demand has been a little slower, but it is worth remembering that the past three years have seen tremendous volumes of silver bullion imported into India. Turning to China, in contrast to the country s gold jewellery demand, retail bar demand appears on course to realise y-o-y gains. Here, a combination of the yuan s depreciation and low interest rates have contributed to upbeat gold demand. In sharp contrast, retail investor purchases in the Middle East have continued to weaken so far this year. In past issues of this Weekly we have highlighted the impact of the slump in oil prices on the region s gold demand, in key physical gold markets, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Added to this has been the weakness in the Turkish gold coin market. This owes much to a deteriorating Turkish Lira, which has helped push up local gold prices to new record highs. This in turn has been taken as a signal by Turkish consumers to take profits and also wait on the sidelines for prices to ease back before re-entering the coin market. However, the Middle East appears to be an outlier this year. This suggests that global retail gold buying could remain buoyant, although purchases of silver coins and bars may fall short of last year s record.

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5 Precious Metals Weekly, Issue 141-8th March 216 US$ billions Asia-Pacific ex-japan Semiconductor Billings* Other* China Three-month moving averages shown Source: Semiconductor Industry Association *Prior to March 215, Chinese billings were bundled into the overall non-japanese Asia-Pacific total Market Developments China s slow-down taking a toll on industrial demand A recent field research trip to China, focussing on industrial uses of precious metals, reaffirmed Metals Focus concerns about the outlook for Chinese industrial fabrication. Although not all sectors are equally affected, the overall market sentiment appears quite sober. Indications of the headwinds faced by Chinese industrial demand have been building for some time now. As the accompanying chart illustrates, Asian semiconductor billings have been moving sideways for some time, after a few years of healthy growth. While data on China-specific billings has only been available since March 215, anecdotal reports point to strong gains in previous years, which then gave way to stagnation in the second half of 215. IDC s recent forecast on smartphone shipments also paints a bleak picture, pointing to a mere 2% increase in Chinese shipments in 216. Turning to PGMs, lacklustre car sales growth and indications of slowing capacity increases in the LCD and petroleum sectors are also suggestive of lacklustre demand. Finally, given the bulk of solar pastes and powders are imported, the expected strength of Chinese installations should have a limited impact on local fabrication. Returning to our field research, market feedback suggests that gold bonding wire consumption, already suffering from substitution pressures, is being affected by falling utilisation in the memory packaging sector. Fabrication of gold targets and vaporisation slugs, meanwhile, are being hampered by weaker LED and semiconductor sectors. The outlook for gold potassium cyanide plating solutions is also problematic, against a backdrop of slowing smartphone and falling tablet sales. The picture is somewhat more positive for PGMs, although not without its headwinds. The latest LMC forecasts point to a healthy recovery in Chinese car production, after last year s poor performance. However, the rates of growth remains far lower than previous norms (e.g ). Turning to petroleum, slower capacity gains, coupled with high inventories, suggest new metal purchases will probably be limited in 216. Growth in the LCD sector is also expected to be lacklustre. The chemical and fibre glass sectors should, in contrast, fare better. Looking finally at silver, the outlook for non-solar electronics-related applications (such as conductive pastes, plating & deposition materials) is clouded by slowing demand from relevant end-use sectors. While the recent real estate price boom may help mitigate the recent weakness in electrical demand, many question the scope for a genuine and sustained recovery in construction. Finally, as noted earlier, the likely continued strength of the Chinese solar sector should only marginally help local fabricators, given the bulk of silver pastes continue to be imported.

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7 Precious Metals Weekly, Issue 141-8th March 216 Charts - Precious metal prices Gold - $/oz Silver - $/oz 1,285 1,275 1,265 1,255 1,245 1,235 1,225 1,215 1,25 23/2 24/2 26/2 1/3 2/3 4/3 8/ /2 24/2 26/2 1/3 2/3 4/3 8/3 Platinum - $/oz 1,2 1, /2 24/2 26/2 1/3 2/3 4/3 8/3 Palladium - $/oz /2 24/2 26/2 1/3 2/3 4/3 8/3

8 Precious Metals Weekly, Issue 141-8th March 216 Charts - Ratios & spreads Gold:silver ratio Gold:oil (Brent) ratio /2 24/2 26/2 1/3 2/3 4/3 8/ /2 24/2 26/2 1/3 2/3 4/3 8/3-26 Platinum:gold discount (US$/oz) 1.96 Platinum:palladium ratio /2 24/2 26/2 1/3 2/3 4/3 8/ /2 24/2 26/2 1/3 3/3 4/3 8/3

9 Precious Metals Weekly, Issue 141-8th March 216 Charts - Futures positions Gold - tonnes Silver - tonnes 1, Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, -1, -15, Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Total Long Total Short Net Total Long Total Short Net Source: CFTC Source: CFTC Platinum - tonnes Palladium - tonnes Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Source: CFTC Total Long Total Short Net Source: CFTC Total Long Total Short Net

10 Precious Metals Weekly, Issue 141-8th March 216 Charts - ETF holdings Gold Silver 9 2, ,6 1, Holdings - Moz Price Holdings - Moz Price Platinum Palladium 3, 2,5 3,5 1, 2,5 2, 2, 1,5 3, 2,5 2, 8 6 1,5 1, 1, 1,5 1, Holdings - Koz Price Holdings - Koz Price

11 Precious Metals Weekly, Issue 141-8th March 216 The Metals Focus Team Philip Newman, Director Charles de Meester, Director Tel: +44 () Junlu Liang, Senior Analyst Peter Ryan, Consultant Elvis Chou, Consultant, Taipei Chirag Sheth, Consultant, Mumbai Madeleine Hinton, Research Analyst Neelan Patel, Sales Executive Nikos Kavalis, Director Oliver Heathman, Consultant Neil Meader, Research & Consultancy Manager George Coles, Consultant Simon Yau, Consultant, Hong Kong Çagdas D. Küçükemiroglu, Consultant, Istanbul Yiyi Gao, Research Analyst, Shanghai Carmen Eleta, Regional Sales Director Jadwiga Zajac, Office Manager Metals Focus - Contact Details Address Unit T, Reliance Wharf 2-1 Hertford Road London N1 5ET U.K. Tel: info@metalsfocus.com Bloomberg chat: IB MFOCUS Disclaimer & Copyright This report is published by, and remains the copyright of Metals Focus Ltd. Although every effort has been made to undertake this work with care and diligence, Metals Focus Ltd cannot guarantee the accuracy of any forecasts or assumptions. Nothing contained in this report constitutes an offer to buy or sell securities and nor does it constitute advice in relation to the buying or selling of investments. It is published only for informational purposes. Metals Focus Ltd does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this report.