Earnings are in the Driver s Seat

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Earnings are in the Driver s Seat"

Transcription

1 WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Sean Lynch, CFA Co-Head of Global Equity Strategy Earnings are in the Driver s Seat April 2, 2018 Key takeaways» Valuations for most equity markets increased from 2015 to 2017 as stock markets moved steadily higher. This year is likely to be a year in which earnings catch up to valuations.» We believe that corporate earnings will be the main catalyst driving equity-market appreciation in 2018 (rather than expansion of valuations). What it may mean for investors» We believe that corporate earnings have been exposed to more positive catalysts in the U.S. than they have in overseas markets. As a result, we expect that U.S. earnings growth will be steadier than corporate earnings growth in markets abroad.» We continue to favor exposure to domestic equities over exposure to international equities. Asset Group Overviews Equities... 5 Fixed Income... 6 Real Assets... 7 Alternative Investments... 8 Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) believes that corporate earnings growth will be the main catalyst driving equity-market appreciation in That hasn t always been the case over the past decade. In many years, expansion in valuations has been the primary driver of positive equity returns. WFII believes that many factors are likely to act as headwinds to equity valuations this year, so we do not expect price-earnings (P/E) multiples to expand significantly beyond current levels. In today s report, we discuss the projected earnings growth rate in three major equity markets and share our views on what this could mean for stock markets following a volatile first quarter. Across the major equity markets, earnings continue to expand. Yet, earnings growth rates may begin to decelerate (slow) across these markets in the next few quarters. This deceleration should be expected in the U.S., given the recent spike in earnings expectations that was fueled by U.S. tax reform. Clearly, the earnings boost from tax reform (and other U.S. developments) has not been a significant influence on international equity markets. Yet, earnings growth rates also are beginning to slow abroad Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 1 of 10

2 Earnings are in the Driver s Seat Chart 1. Ratio of consensus next 12 month earnings to trailing 12 month earnings: S&P 500 Index Source: FactSet, March 26, Quarterly data. EPS = earnings per share. The S&P 500 is a market-weighted index considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Analysts earnings estimates may not materialize as shown and are subject to revision. Forecasted earnings growth deceleration In our analysis for Charts 1-3, we divided the consensus next 12-month (NTM) earnings forecast by the trailing 12-month (TTM) earnings for each equity index we evaluated. 1 This ratio gives us an implied projected growth rate for earnings on a rolling quarterly basis. Our findings, reflected in Chart 1, show that the S&P 500 Index had steady analyst-forecasted consensus earnings growth from 2012 to mid Following the 2016 presidential election, a clear acceleration in forecasted U.S. earnings growth appeared. This likely peaked at the end of this year s first quarter. We expect earnings growth for the S&P 500 Index to decelerate, or slow, throughout the remainder of A high bar has been set for U.S. earnings growth rates, and it will be difficult to exceed that bar going forward. Chart 2. Ratio of consensus next 12 month earnings to trailing 12 month earnings: MSCI EAFE Index Source: FactSet, March 26, Quarterly data. EPS = earnings per share. The MSCI EAFE is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance across 21 developed market countries excluding the U.S. and Canada. Analysts earnings estimates may not materialize as shown and are subject to revision. 1 Source: FactSet, March 27, Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 2 of 10

3 Earnings are in the Driver s Seat A different picture can be seen in international developed markets (as represented by the MSCI EAFE Index). Earnings have been a bit more volatile in the past decade as issues in the eurozone have halted earnings momentum each time a turn in earnings begins to appear. As we saw in the U.S., earnings expectations began to improve in mid Yet, international developed markets already have seen deceleration in growth rates occurring since the middle of last year. Incidentally, earnings in the local markets in many European countries have lagged those of the U.S. since mid-2017, when corporate earnings growth in the eurozone began to slow. Chart 3. Ratio of consensus next 12 month earnings to trailing 12 month earnings: MSCI Emerging Markets Index Source: FactSet, March 26, Quarterly data. EPS = earnings per share. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure emerging markets equity performance. Analysts earnings estimates may not materialize as shown and are subject to revision. Emerging markets (as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index) have seen a much more volatile earnings pattern. Corporate earnings have struggled to return to the absolute levels that were achieved in While emerging-market earnings may finally return to those levels this year, investors seem to distrust the premise that emerging-market earnings are in a long-term recovery. There have been too many examples of overexuberance on a turn in emerging markets, only to be met with disappointment. This could result in steep market declines if investors were to see earnings declines, along with compression in valuations. The impact on valuation We do not expect global equity-market valuation to expand much beyond today s levels this year. The forecasted P/E multiples we used for our year-end 2018 target prices are 18.8 for the S&P 500 Index, 16.2 for the MSCI EAFE Index, and 13.6 for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. All three of these P/E multiples are below the current trailing 12-month P/E ratio for each of these indices. Investment implications We continue to anticipate high-single-digit returns for many of the major equity markets over the next 12 months, so we are not making a negative call on the stock 2018 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 3 of 10

4 Earnings are in the Driver s Seat markets. We simply are cautious about forecasting equity target prices that are well above current levels as markets may struggle to deliver on lofty expectations. Valuations may have a challenging time expanding this year, because: 1. We are near the end of the business cycle, when valuations may start to decline. 2. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increases stacking upon each other are likely to pressure valuations. 3. The impact of trade policy (and tariffs, or a trade war) on earnings in international equity markets is challenging to estimate. Thus, the initial impact of trade-policy concerns is likely to pressure valuations. We continue to favor domestic equities over international equities for investment of new assets today (although we are tactically evenweight, or neutral, on all equity classes). We believe that earnings growth is likely to be steadier in the U.S. than it is abroad, because U.S. companies have more positive earnings catalysts (in the form of tax reform and fiscal spending) than companies do in international equity markets. Valuations for most equity markets rose from 2015 through 2017 as the markets steadily moved higher. This year is likely to be a year in which earnings catch up to valuations. Last year, the strong equity markets benefited from rising earnings and expanding P/E multiples. It would be wise for investors to remember that the reverse can occur (falling multiples and falling earnings), and the fall down can be much more precipitous and painful than the steady climb up. We still remain positive on equities in general, but the gains this year may be limited to what we see in profit growth (and less in how much valuations expand) Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 4 of 10

5 EQUITIES Stuart Freeman, CFA Co-Head of Global Equity Strategy U.S. Small Cap Equities U.S. Large Cap Equities U.S. Mid Cap Equities Developed Market Ex-U.S. Equities Emerging Market Equities When the economy and equity markets move in different directions During most of an economic cycle, favorable economic and earnings growth accompanies relatively persistent equity-market appreciation (with the exception of modest pullbacks from time to time). It is not unusual to experience a mid-cycle pullback when earnings growth prospects are very good. Most frequently, however, those periods of year-over-year corrections or flatness occur alongside rising inflation and Fed tightening. Today, the growth we have been experiencing, and the growth we expect for 2018, are moderate and signs of problematic inflation are difficult to find. We do not expect the Fed to act aggressively in the foreseeable future. Yet, we do expect higher (and more normal) volatility this year than in recent years, even as fundamentals continue to improve. The chart below shows two examples of mid-cycle periods during which corrections occurred alongside strong earnings growth, greater inflation risks, and Fed tightening the and periods. In , the S&P 500 Index declined by 10% over one year. In , the market pulled back roughly 2% over a year. In both cases, the economy continued to grow. Even after aggressive Fed tightening and corrections in those extreme cases, the market returned to its upward trajectory alongside the economy. We expect the S&P 500 Index to move back toward our year-end 2018 target range as U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) continues to climb at a healthy 2.9% pace, with only a moderate 2.4% inflation rate. We believe that investors should rebalance their portfolios on the current correction to realign them with our sector guidance and their chosen asset allocation. Key takeaways» It is not uncommon to experience a mid-cycle market pullback when earnings prospects are good, the economy is growing, and inflation remains moderate.» We believe that investors should rebalance portfolios on the current correction to align then with their chosen asset allocation and our sector guidance. Sometimes, market pullbacks occur in quite healthy economies Fed funds rate (%) and S&P 500 Index year-over-year change (%) Fed funds rate (%) S&P 500 Index % change Sources: Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Bloomberg; March 27, Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 5 of 10

6 FIXED INCOME Brian Rehling, CFA Co-Head of Global Fixed Income Strategy Underweight High Yield Taxable Fixed Income Underweight Developed Market Ex.-U.S. Fixed Income Overweight U.S. Short Term Taxable Fixed Income Underweight U.S. Long Term Taxable Fixed Income Emerging Market Fixed Income U.S. Taxable Investment Grade Fixed Income Surging short-term LIBOR yield spreads red flag or opportunity? A key short-term funding indicator has been surging, and some investors are concerned that it is warning of potential credit-market issues. Let s set the stage first. LIBOR is the London Interbank Offered Rate (the reported average rate that banks charge each other for short-term funding in the international interbank market). OIS is the Overnight Indexed Swap rate, and it closely resembles the federal funds rate. The LIBOR OIS spread recently traded at 59 basis points, well above its mid-2017 low of 9 basis points. 2 The LIBOR OIS spread reached a peak of 515 basis points in late 2007 as the financial crisis was starting. We believe that the forces fueling the recent spike in this key spread are technical in nature and offer investors an opportunity, rather than a reason for concern. When LIBOR spikes relative to the federal funds rate as it did in , it can suggest that banks are concerned about each other s credit quality and demanding higher rates as a result. This would be concerning, but we do not believe that credit concerns are to blame for the recent increase. U.S. tax reform, and the resulting opportunity to repatriate capital, coupled with a rise in government spending and suspension of the U.S. debt ceiling through March 2019, have led to abundant supply in short-term funding markets. This change in funding and demand behavior is pressuring corporate spreads and short-term funding markets as supply outstrips demand. These technical factors are likely to persist in the near term, but we do not believe that this indicates a funding challenge for issuers or signals that buyers are unwilling to lend to corporations (which would be indicative of underlying credit concerns). Key takeaways» Higher short-term yields may persist in the near term; we do not expect a rapid reversal in this trend. Higher short-term yields can offer investors an opportunity to shorten duration and improve the risk return.» We view the recent spread widening in short-term corporate securities as an opportunity for investors looking for added yield in high quality short-term paper. Year-to-date trend in short-term LIBOR-OIS spread U.S. Intermediate Term Taxable Fixed Income Source: Bloomberg; March 26, OIS is an interest rate swap that exchanges fixed rate interest payments for floating rate payments. The floating rate is tied to an overnight rate such as LIBOR. The LIBOR-OIS spread indicates credit risk in the interbank market. 2 One hundred basis points equal 1% Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 6 of 10

7 Austin Pickle, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst Underweight Commodities Private Real Estate Overweight Public Real Estate REAL ASSETS What wisdom can you find that is greater than kindness? Commodities more than gold, oil, and copper -- Jean Jacques Rousseau Since the beginning of 2017, the most visible commodities gold, oil, and copper are up roughly 20%. This impressive performance is comparable to the total return of the S&P 500 Index during that same time period. Throughout this stretch, we have been underweight commodities. Does this mean that our call has been wrong? No, actually the call has been spot on the commodity complex overall has only managed to eke out a lackluster 1% return (as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) 3. This easily sets commodities apart as one of the worst-performing major asset classes during this time frame. Why has there been a discrepancy in returns when the big-hitter commodities have performed so well? The reason is that the commodity complex is quite diverse (at last count, there were 22 different commodities in the BCOM Index) and most commodities are dealing with chronic oversupply. Oversupply tends to cap price rallies in individual commodities, which makes a sustained increase difficult for the complex to achieve. This means that certain individual commodities can perform admirably, while others underperform. This type of performance divergence between individual commodities is quite common during bear super-cycles. 4 Notice how, in the chart below, the correlations of individual commodities (red line) are low during commodity bear supercycles (shaded areas). In other words, during bear super-cycles, it is common for one commodity to zig when another zags. This dynamic will make a coordinated appreciation in the commodity complex difficult to achieve, in our opinion. Key takeaways» Individual commodities may perform admirably at different times during the bear super-cycle.» Yet, widespread oversupply will make coordinated appreciation difficult for the commodity complex to achieve. Individual commodity correlations 0.75 Median six-month rolling correlation of individual commodities to the CCI (50-day SMA) CCI Commodity Index 650 Commodity correlations CCI Index value Sources: Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Daily data: January 1, March 27, Correlations based on daily returns. Correlations represent past performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that future correlations between individual commodities in the CCI will remain the same. The CCI index comprises 17 commodity futures that are continuously rebalanced: Cocoa, Coffee Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold, Heating Oil, Live Cattle, Lean Hogs, Natural Gas, Orange juice, Platinum, Silver, Soybeans, Sugar No. 11, and Wheat. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. 3 The index is calculated on an excess return basis and reflects commodity futures price movements. 4 If you look at commodity prices over the very long term (hundreds of years), it becomes evident that they tend to move in overall bull and bear cycles, some lasting decades. These are super-cycles Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 7 of 10

8 ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS Jim Sweetman Senior Global Alternative Investment Strategist Private Equity Hedge Funds-Macro Hedge Funds-Event Driven Overweight Hedge Funds-Relative Value Overweight Hedge Funds-Equity Hedge Hedge funds in the recent market swoon The financial-market turmoil over the past two months reversed strong hedge fund performance over the previous 23-month period during which the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index 5 was up in 22 of the past 23 months, positive in 15 consecutive months, and posted gains in each month last year. While hedge funds (as represented by the HFRX indices in the table below) have not been immune to the volatility spike associated with the recent equity-market correction, rising interest rates, widening credit spreads, and a weakening U.S. dollar, they did provide downside protection during the recent market correction. Broadly speaking (on a relative basis), hedge funds outperformed equities, fixed income and commoditites year to date (YTD), through March 23. The table below shows that last month (through March 23) the average hedge fund declined by approximately -0.7%. Three of the four main hedge fund strategies were negative over that period. Yet, over that same period, the average hedge fund captured only 19% and 16%, respectively, of the downside of the MSCI World Index and the S&P 500 Index. Importantly, YTD, the Equity Hedge (+0.7%) and Relative Value (+1.1%) strategies (two of our highest conviction strategies) provided positive returns and dampened volatility (due to lower net exposures and identifying idiosyncratic alphageneration opportunities independent of the broader equity and credit directionality). In short, hedge funds allowed investors to participate in the upside in January, and mitigated downside movement as markets experienced difficulties over the past two months. Key takeaways» We expect the environment for hedge funds to remain favorable. Yet, we are mindful that we are in the latter stage of the global business cycle. That is why we remain more constructive on strategies that have low net exposure profiles, such as Equity Hedge and Relative Value.» Hedge funds have performed relatively well during the recent market sell-off. Yet, we remain cognizant of key risks and expect more volatility this year. We favor strategies that can diversify, insulate, and help protect capital. Alternative investments, such as hedge funds, private equity, private debt and private real estate funds are not suitable for all investors and are only open to accredited or qualified investors within the meaning of U.S. securities laws. Sources: Bloomberg and HFR, March 23, Please see below for important information on index comparisons and for asset class risks. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. * Through March 28, A global, equal-weighted index of over 2,000 single-manager funds that report to the HFR Database 2018 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 8 of 10

9 Index Comparisons Index returns represent general market results and do not reflect actual portfolio returns, the experience of any investor, or the impact of any fees, expenses or taxes applicable to an actual investment. Nor do such returns constitute a recommendation to invest in any particular fund or strategy. The indices reflect the historical performance of the represented assets and assume the reinvestment of dividends and other distributions. Because the HFR indices are calculated based on information that is voluntarily provided actual returns may be higher or lower than those reported. HFRX performance reflects constitute fund management fees, incentive fees, dividends and other distributions. Comparisons to benchmarks have limitations because benchmarks have volatility and other material characteristics that may differ from those of an investor's portfolio. Because of these differences, benchmarks should not be relied upon as an accurate measure of comparison. There is no guarantee that any of the securities in an investor's portfolio are included in the representative benchmarks. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Risks Considerations Each asset class has its own risk and return characteristics. The level of risk associated with a particular investment or asset class generally correlates with the level of return the investment or asset class might achieve. Stock markets, especially foreign markets, are volatile. Stock values may fluctuate in response to general economic and market conditions, the prospects of individual companies, and industry sectors. Foreign investing has additional risks including those associated with currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. These risks are heightened in emerging markets. Small- and mid-cap stocks are generally more volatile, subject to greater risks and are less liquid than large company stocks. Bonds are subject to market, interest rate, price, credit/default, liquidity, inflation and other risks. Prices tend to be inversely affected by changes in interest rates. High yield (junk) bonds have lower credit ratings and are subject to greater risk of default and greater principal risk. The commodities markets are considered speculative, carry substantial risks, and have experienced periods of extreme volatility. Investing in a volatile and uncertain commodities market may cause a portfolio to rapidly increase or decrease in value which may result in greater share price volatility. Real estate has special risks including the possible illiquidity of underlying properties, credit risk, interest rate fluctuations and the impact of varied economic conditions. Alternative investments, such as hedge funds, private equity/private debt and private real estate funds, are speculative and involve a high degree of risk that is suitable only for those investors who have the financial sophistication and expertise to evaluate the merits and risks of an investment in a fund and for which the fund does not represent a complete investment program. They entail significant risks that can include losses due to leveraging or other speculative investment practices, lack of liquidity, volatility of returns, restrictions on transferring interests in a fund, potential lack of diversification, absence and/or delay of information regarding valuations and pricing, complex tax structures and delays in tax reporting, less regulation and higher fees than mutual funds. Hedge fund, private equity, private debt and private real estate fund investing involves other material risks including capital loss and the loss of the entire amount invested. A fund's offering documents should be carefully reviewed prior to investing. Hedge fund strategies, such as Equity Hedge, Event Driven, Macro and Relative Value, may expose investors to the risks associated with the use of short selling, leverage, derivatives and arbitrage methodologies. Short sales involve leverage and theoretically unlimited loss potential since the market price of securities sold short may continuously increase. The use of leverage in a portfolio varies by strategy. Leverage can significantly increase return potential but create greater risk of loss. Derivatives generally have implied leverage which can magnify volatility and may entail other risks such as market, interest rate, credit, counterparty and management risks. Arbitrage strategies expose a fund to the risk that the anticipated arbitrage opportunities will not develop as anticipated, resulting in potentially reduced returns or losses to the fund. HFRX Strategy Definitions HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index is designed to be representative of the overall composition of the hedge fund universe. It is comprised of all eligible hedge fund strategies; including but not limited to convertible arbitrage, distressed securities, equity hedge, equity market neutral, event driven, macro, merger arbitrage, and relative value arbitrage. The strategies are asset weighted based on the distribution of assets in the hedge fund industry. HFRX Equity Hedge Index consists of Equity Hedge strategies that maintain positions both long and short in primarily equity and equity derivative securities. A wide variety of investment processes can be employed to arrive at an investment decision, including both quantitative and fundamental techniques; strategies can be broadly diversified or narrowly focused on specific sectors and can range broadly in terms of levels of net exposure, leverage employed, holding period, concentrations of market capitalizations and valuation ranges of typical portfolios. Equity Hedge managers would typically maintain at least 50%, and may in some cases be substantially entirely invested in equities, both long and short. HFRX Event Driven Index consists of Event Driven Managers that maintain positions in companies currently or prospectively involved in corporate transactions of a wide variety including but not limited to mergers, restructurings, financial distress, tender offers, shareholder buybacks, debt exchanges, security issuance or other capital structure adjustments. Security types can range from most senior in the capital structure to most junior or subordinated, and frequently involve additional derivative securities. Event Driven exposure includes a combination of sensitivities to equity markets, credit markets and idiosyncratic, company specific developments. Investment theses are 2018 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 9 of 10

10 typically predicated on fundamental characteristics (as opposed to quantitative), with the realization of the thesis predicated on a specific development exogenous to the existing capital structure. HFRX Macro Index tracks managers that trade a broad range of strategies in which the investment process is predicated on movements in underlying economic variables and the impact these have on equity, fixed income, hard currency and commodity markets. Managers employ a variety of techniques, both discretionary and systematic analysis, combinations of top down and bottom up theses, quantitative and fundamental approaches and long and short term holding periods. HFRX Relative Value Arbitrage Index consists of Relative Value investment managers who maintain positions in which the investment thesis is predicated on realization of a valuation discrepancy in the relationship between multiple securities. Managers employ a variety of fundamental and quantitative techniques to establish investment theses, and security types range broadly across equity, fixed income, derivative or other security types. Fixed income strategies are typically quantitatively driven to measure the existing relationship between instruments and, in some cases, identify attractive positions in which the risk adjusted spread between these instruments represents an attractive opportunity for the investment manager. RV position may be involved in corporate transactions also, but as opposed to ED exposures, the investment thesis is predicated on realization of a pricing discrepancy between related securities, as opposed to the outcome of the corporate transaction. Additional Index Definitions Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate 10+ Year Bond Index is composed of the Bloomberg Barclays US Government/Credit Index and the Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage-Backed Securities Index, and includes Treasury issues, agency issues, corporate bond issues, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of 10 years or more. Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Index includes public obligations of the U.S. Treasury with a remaining maturity of one year or more. Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of 23 developed markets including the United States. NASDAQ Composite Index measures the market value of all domestic and foreign common stocks, representing a wide array of more than 5,000 companies, listed on the NASDAQ Stock Market. Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. General Disclosures Global Investment Strategy (GIS) is a division of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Inc. (WFII). WFII is a registered investment adviser and wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company. The information in this report was prepared by Global Investment Strategy. Opinions represent GIS opinion as of the date of this report and are for general information purposes only and are not intended to predict or guarantee the future performance of any individual security, market sector or the markets generally. GIS does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this report. Wells Fargo & Company affiliates may issue reports or have opinions that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, this report. The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor. This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell securities. Do not use this report as the sole basis for investment decisions. Do not select an asset class or investment product based on performance alone. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs and investment time horizon. Wells Fargo Advisors is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, but is not licensed or registered with any financial services regulatory authority outside of the U.S. Non-U.S. residents who maintain U.S.-based financial services account(s) with Wells Fargo Advisors may not be afforded certain protections conferred by legislation and regulations in their country of residence in respect of any investments, investment transactions or communications made with Wells Fargo Advisors. Wells Fargo Advisors is a trade name used by Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, separate registered broker-dealers and non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company. CAR Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 10 of 10

WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE. Jim Sweetman Senior Global Alternative Investment Strategist

WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE. Jim Sweetman Senior Global Alternative Investment Strategist WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Jim Sweetman Senior Global Alternative Investment Strategist Asset Group Overviews Equities... 4 Fixed Income... 5 Real Assets... 6 Alternative Investments...

More information

Investing in Record-Breaking Markets

Investing in Record-Breaking Markets WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Tracie McMillion, CFA Head of Global Asset Allocation Investing in Record-Breaking Markets» Most fixed income and equity indices are at, or very

More information

Market Volatility May Create Opportunity

Market Volatility May Create Opportunity WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE George Rusnak, CFA Co-Head of Global Fixed Income Strategy Market Volatility May Create Opportunity February 12, 2018» In early February, a strong

More information

Economic forces behind the equity-market correction

Economic forces behind the equity-market correction WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Paul Christopher, CFA Head of Global Market Strategy February 26, 2018 Perspectives on Inflation, Interest Rates, and Equities» The expanding U.S.

More information

Stock Pickers Market Becoming Credit Pickers Market

Stock Pickers Market Becoming Credit Pickers Market WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Justin Lenarcic Global Alternative Investment Strategist Asset Group Overviews Equities... 5 Fixed Income... 6 Real Assets... 7 Alternative Investments...

More information

Why We See Lower Copper Prices in 2018

Why We See Lower Copper Prices in 2018 IN-D EPTH A NALYSIS OF THE C OMMODITY AND REAL E STATE MARKETS John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy Why We See Lower Copper Prices in 218 December 21, 217 Key Takeaways» 216 and 217 were great years

More information

Global Investment Strategy Report

Global Investment Strategy Report Global Investment Strategy Global Investment Strategy Report June 5, 2017 Tracie McMillion, CFA Head of Global Asset Allocation Strategy Weekly market insights from the Global Investment Strategy team»

More information

Key takeaways. What it may mean for investors FIRST A NALYSIS NEWS OR EVENTS T HAT MAY AFFECT Y OUR INVESTMENTS. Global Investment Strategy Team

Key takeaways. What it may mean for investors FIRST A NALYSIS NEWS OR EVENTS T HAT MAY AFFECT Y OUR INVESTMENTS. Global Investment Strategy Team FIRST A NALYSIS NEWS OR EVENTS T HAT MAY AFFECT Y OUR INVESTMENTS Global Investment Strategy Team February 5, 2018 Market Sell-off What Investors Need to Know Now Key takeaways» A swift climb in the 10-year

More information

Key Takeaways. What It May Mean for Investors. Portfolio Alignment WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE

Key Takeaways. What It May Mean for Investors. Portfolio Alignment WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE June 26, 2017 The Perils of Portfolio Drift and What to Do About It Chris Haverland, CFA Global Asset Allocation Strategist» Constructing and maintaining

More information

Global Investment Strategy Report

Global Investment Strategy Report Global Investment Strategy Global Investment Strategy Report June 19, 2017 Justin Lenarcic Global Alternative Investment Strategist Weekly market insights from the Global Investment Strategy team» The

More information

Executive Summary. Asset Allocation Strategy,

Executive Summary. Asset Allocation Strategy, Executive Summary. Asset Allocation Strategy, Focus on what you can control. And for the rest use diversification.. Volatility has reawakened. Throughout March, and for most of the first quarter, we were

More information

Introducing Our 2018 Year-End Targets

Introducing Our 2018 Year-End Targets WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Global Investment Strategy Team Asset Group Overviews Domestic Equities... 4 International Equities... 5 Fixed Income... 6 Real Assets... 7 Alternative

More information

Applying the Monetary Brakes What Investors Should Know

Applying the Monetary Brakes What Investors Should Know WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE George Rusnak, CFA Co-Head of Global Fixed Income Strategy Applying the Monetary Brakes What Investors Should Know September 25, 2017» The Federal

More information

Key Takeaways. What It May Mean for Investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE

Key Takeaways. What It May Mean for Investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Sean Lynch, CFA Co-Head of Global Equity Strategy November 13, 17 Equity Valuations Matter But We Don t See a Bubble» Market valuations typically

More information

The Fed Reexamining the Future

The Fed Reexamining the Future WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Brian Rehling, CFA Co-Head of Global Fixed Income Strategy The Fed Reexamining the Future March 25, 2019» The Federal Reserve (Fed) is reexamining

More information

Time to Buy Late-Stage Commodities?

Time to Buy Late-Stage Commodities? WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy Time to Buy Late-Stage Commodities? Key takeaways» Late in economic cycles, commodities have outperformed

More information

Bank for International Settlements, February

Bank for International Settlements, February WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Peter Wilson Global Fixed Income Strategist Asset Group Overviews Equities... 4 Fixed Income... 5 Real Assets... 6 Alternative Investments... 7 March

More information

Where Demand Meets Supply Changing Fixed Income Markets

Where Demand Meets Supply Changing Fixed Income Markets WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE George Rusnak, CFA Co-Head of Global Fixed Income Strategy Asset Group Overviews Equities... 3 Fixed Income... 4 Real Assets... 5 Alternative Investments...

More information

What Might Higher LIBOR Mean for Bonds and the Dollar?

What Might Higher LIBOR Mean for Bonds and the Dollar? WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Peter Wilson International Fixed Income Strategist October 29, 2018 What Might Higher LIBOR Mean for Bonds and the Dollar? Key takeaways» The London

More information

Is this a good time to invest in private equity?

Is this a good time to invest in private equity? WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Yegin Chen Global Alternative Investment Strategist February 5, 2018 How Have Private Equity Funds Performed Across Cycles? Key takeaways» Private

More information

Low Volatility: How Long Can It Last?

Low Volatility: How Long Can It Last? Veronica Willis Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Low Volatility: How Long Can It Last? January 30, 2018 Key takeaways» In 2017, the U.S. stock and bond markets

More information

Dead Dollar Bull? WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. Austin Pickle, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst.

Dead Dollar Bull? WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. Austin Pickle, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst. Austin Pickle, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Dead Dollar Bull? March 3, 208 Key takeaways» The U.S. dollar has experienced three secular cycles of

More information

Q&A Market Implications of Tax Reform

Q&A Market Implications of Tax Reform IN-D EPTH A NALYSIS OF TIMELY INVESTMENT TOPICS Q&A Market Implications of Tax Reform December 27, 2017 Investment Strategy Team Key Takeaways» The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was signed into law on December

More information

Global Growth On Track or Derailed?

Global Growth On Track or Derailed? Austin Pickle, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Global Growth On Track or Derailed? Key takeaways May 15, 2018» Concerns regarding the global growth outlook

More information

ASK THE INSTITUTE. Key takeaways. Filling the gaps in traditional finance. What is traditional finance? What is behavioral finance?

ASK THE INSTITUTE. Key takeaways. Filling the gaps in traditional finance. What is traditional finance? What is behavioral finance? ASK THE INSTITUTE What is traditional finance? Traditional financial theories assume: Markets are efficient Market prices of assets reflect all available and pertinent information Investors are rational

More information

Late-Cycle Investment Positioning

Late-Cycle Investment Positioning WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Tracie McMillion, CFA Head of Global Asset Allocation Strategy Late-Cycle Investment Positioning December 17, 2018 Key takeaways» Although some economic

More information

Global Equity Strategy Report

Global Equity Strategy Report Global Investment Strategy Global Equity Strategy Report April 26, 2017 Stuart Freeman, CFA Co-Head of Global Equity Strategy Scott Wren Senior Global Equity Strategist Analysis and outlook for the equity

More information

Key Takeaways. What It May Mean for Investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst

Key Takeaways. What It May Mean for Investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst Michael Taylor, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS October 31, 2017 Consumer Debt Not Likely to Derail U.S. Economy

More information

WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE. Scott Wren Senior Global Equity Strategist

WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE. Scott Wren Senior Global Equity Strategist WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Scott Wren Senior Global Equity Strategist July 16, 2018 Making Sense of the Upcoming S&P Sector Changes» After the stock market closes on September

More information

Oil Running into Year-End Headwinds?

Oil Running into Year-End Headwinds? WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy Oil Running into Year-End Headwinds? November 20, 2017 Key Takeaways» Oil prices have rallied 30 percent,

More information

The Oil Connection. Key Takeaways. What It May Mean for Investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE

The Oil Connection. Key Takeaways. What It May Mean for Investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy The Oil Connection August 14, 217 Key Takeaways» Oil prices have an impact on other commodities, and on

More information

Key Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. U.S. Dollar Index. S&P 500 Index. Chart of the Week. Crude Oil.

Key Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. U.S. Dollar Index. S&P 500 Index. Chart of the Week. Crude Oil. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing May 8, 2017 Sameer Samana, CFA Global Quantitative and Technical Strategist Key Takeaways S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 Index is continuing to consolidate

More information

Global Investment Committee Themes

Global Investment Committee Themes Global Investment Committee Themes The Global Investment Committee (GIC), which meets monthly to review the economic and political environment and asset allocation models for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

More information

Recessions are Unavoidable. WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 19, 2017 Recession Indicators Agree the Expansion Continues

Recessions are Unavoidable. WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 19, 2017 Recession Indicators Agree the Expansion Continues Austin Pickle, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 19, 2017 Recession Indicators Agree the Expansion Continues Key Takeaways» There are several

More information

What Is Behind the Equity Sell-Off?

What Is Behind the Equity Sell-Off? IN-D EPTH A NALYSIS OF THE E QUITY MARKETS Investment Strategy Team What Is Behind the Equity Sell-Off? March 26, 2018 Key takeaways» Investors are concerned about the negative implications of a potential

More information

Cyclical Asset Allocation Quarterly

Cyclical Asset Allocation Quarterly Global Investment Strategy Cyclical Asset Allocation Quarterly April 2, 2018 Our cyclical asset allocation process is based on a rolling three-year outlook which means that the Global Investment Strategy

More information

Corporate Earnings Picture Remains Healthy

Corporate Earnings Picture Remains Healthy WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Sameer Samana, CFA Global Equity and Technical Strategist Corporate Earnings Picture Remains Healthy May 7, 2018 Key takeaways» Many U.S. investors

More information

Our Guidance in This Fast Start to the Year

Our Guidance in This Fast Start to the Year WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Paul Christopher, CFA Head of Global Market Strategy Asset Group Overviews Equities... 4 Fixed Income... 5 Real Assets... 6 Alternative Investments...

More information

Debt Growth Reckless or Reasonable?

Debt Growth Reckless or Reasonable? Austin Pickle, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Debt Growth Reckless or Reasonable? February 6, 2018 Key takeaways» The availability of credit largely

More information

Retail REITs Not Biting, Yet

Retail REITs Not Biting, Yet WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy Asset Group Overviews Equities... 4 Fixed Income... 5 Real Assets... 6 Alternative Investments... 7 Retail

More information

Key Takeaways. What it May Mean for Investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS

Key Takeaways. What it May Mean for Investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst Paul Christopher, CFA Head Global Market Strategist July 11, 2017 Does Rising Mortgage Debt Signal an Economic

More information

» These risks are unlikely, in our view, and do not change our conviction calls for 2018 overweight REITs, and underweight commodities.

» These risks are unlikely, in our view, and do not change our conviction calls for 2018 overweight REITs, and underweight commodities. WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy January 8, 2018 Where Our Tactical Calls on Real Assets Could Be Wrong Key Takeaways» The main risk to our

More information

Why is Investor Confidence Lagging?

Why is Investor Confidence Lagging? Veronica Willis Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Why is Investor Confidence Lagging? July 3, 2018 Key takeaways» Typically, late in the economic cycle, we

More information

Key Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. U.S. Dollar Index. S&P 500 Index. Chart of the Week.

Key Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. U.S. Dollar Index. S&P 500 Index. Chart of the Week. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing January 2, 2018 Sameer Samana, CFA Global Equity and Technical Strategist Key Takeaways S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 Index has broken out and remains

More information

What Are Consumer and Investor Confidence Signaling?

What Are Consumer and Investor Confidence Signaling? Veronica Willis Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS What Are Consumer and Investor Confidence Signaling? September 19, 2017 Key Takeaways» Consumer and investor

More information

Key Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. S&P 500 Index. U.S. Dollar Index. Chart of the Week. Crude Oil.

Key Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. S&P 500 Index. U.S. Dollar Index. Chart of the Week. Crude Oil. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing December 4, 2017 Sameer Samana, CFA Global Equity and Technical Strategist Key Takeaways S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 Index has broken out and remains

More information

2017 Capital Market Assumptions and Strategic Asset Allocations

2017 Capital Market Assumptions and Strategic Asset Allocations 2017 Capital Market Assumptions and Strategic Asset Allocations Tracie McMillion, CFA Head of Global Asset Allocation Chris Haverland, CFA Global Asset Allocation Strategist Stuart Freeman, CFA Co-Head

More information

We have launched Communication Services with an unfavorable outlook WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE

We have launched Communication Services with an unfavorable outlook WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Audrey Kaplan Head of Global Equity Strategy Ken Johnson, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst October 8, 2018 Our Outlook on the New Communication Services

More information

A Shrinking Fed Balance Sheet is No Cause for Alarm

A Shrinking Fed Balance Sheet is No Cause for Alarm WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Brian Rehling, CFA Co-Head of Global Fixed Income Strategy July 31, 2017 A Shrinking Fed Balance Sheet is No Cause for Alarm» Contrary to the fears

More information

Do U.S. Tariffs Change Our Commodity Outlook?

Do U.S. Tariffs Change Our Commodity Outlook? FIRST A NALYSIS NEWS OR EVENTS T HAT MAY AFFECT Y OUR INVESTMENTS John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy Do U.S. Tariffs Change Our Commodity Outlook? March 12, 2018 Key takeaways» The U.S. recently

More information

Anatomy of a Stock-Market Correction

Anatomy of a Stock-Market Correction WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Chris Haverland, CFA Global Asset Allocation Strategist Asset Group Overviews Equities... 3 Fixed Income... 4 Real Assets... 5 Alternative Investments...

More information

Market Welcomes Fed News What s Next?

Market Welcomes Fed News What s Next? WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Brian Rehling, CFA Co-Head of Global Fixed Income Strategy Asset Group Overviews Equities... 4 Fixed Income... 5 Real Assets... 6 Alternative Investments...

More information

WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE. Stuart Freeman, CFA Co-Head of Global Equity Strategy

WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE. Stuart Freeman, CFA Co-Head of Global Equity Strategy WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Stuart Freeman, CFA Co-Head of Global Equity Strategy Asset Group Overviews Equities... 4 Fixed Income... 5 Real Assets... 6 Alternative Investments...

More information

Hypothetical Growth of $100,000 August 1, 2013 June 30, 2016

Hypothetical Growth of $100,000 August 1, 2013 June 30, 2016 June 30, 2016 Steben Select Multi-Strategy Fund I Shares Dear Investor: Steben Select Multi-Strategy Fund I Shares (Steben Select) gained 1.10% in the second quarter of 2016, bringing year-to-date performance

More information

Key takeaways. What it may mean for investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. Veronica Willis Investment Strategy Analyst

Key takeaways. What it may mean for investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. Veronica Willis Investment Strategy Analyst Veronica Willis Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS May 8, 2018 Monetary Policy Divergence Could Last a Little Longer Key takeaways» Recent economic improvement

More information

Key Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. U.S. Dollar Index. S&P 500 Index. Chart of the Week.

Key Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. U.S. Dollar Index. S&P 500 Index. Chart of the Week. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing March 12, 2018 Sameer Samana, CFA Global Equity and Technical Strategist Key Takeaways S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 Index continues to consolidate in

More information

Markets at a Crossroads

Markets at a Crossroads WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Paul Christopher, CFA Head of Global Market Strategy Sameer Samana, CFA Senior Global Market Strategist Asset Group Overviews Equities... 3 Fixed

More information

DESIGNED FOR TODAY S AND TOMORROW S INVESTMENT CHALLENGES

DESIGNED FOR TODAY S AND TOMORROW S INVESTMENT CHALLENGES DESIGNED FOR TODAY S AND TOMORROW S INVESTMENT CHALLENGES PRUDENTIAL REAL ASSETS FUND EFFECTIVE JUNE 11, 2018, THE FUND S NEW NAME WILL BE PGIM REAL ASSETS FUND. FUND SYMBOLS WILL NOT CHANGE. Potential

More information

Investment Perspectives. From the Global Investment Committee

Investment Perspectives. From the Global Investment Committee Investment Perspectives From the Global Investment Committee Introduction Domestic equities continued to race ahead during the fourth quarter of 2014 amid spikes in volatility, dramatic declines in oil

More information

Current corporate debt environment

Current corporate debt environment Ken Johnson, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS May 30, 2018 Rising Corporate Debt What It May Mean for Equities Key takeaways» Our expectation for gradually

More information

Key Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. U.S. Dollar Index. S&P 500 Index. Chart of the Week. Crude Oil.

Key Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. U.S. Dollar Index. S&P 500 Index. Chart of the Week. Crude Oil. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing July 10, 2017 Sameer Samana, CFA Global Quantitative and Technical Strategist Key Takeaways S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 Index has broken out and remains

More information

World Trade Powering Global Economic Growth

World Trade Powering Global Economic Growth WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst World Trade Powering Global Economic Growth August 1, 217 Key Takeaways» Evidence is mounting that global

More information

Five Ways Rising Interest Rates Could Affect Investors

Five Ways Rising Interest Rates Could Affect Investors Global Investment Strategy Five Ways Rising Interest Rates Could Affect Investors Now May Be a Good Time for Investors to Revisit Their Fixed-Income Strategy Brian Rehling, CFA Co-Head of Global Fixed

More information

Fed Tightening: How Global Markets May React

Fed Tightening: How Global Markets May React Bobby Zheng, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst Luis Alvarado Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Fed Tightening: How Global Markets May React August 8, 2017 Key

More information

Downgrading REITs to Neutral

Downgrading REITs to Neutral IN-D EPTH A NALYSIS OF THE C OMMODITY AND REAL E STATE MARKETS Downgrading REITs to Neutral June 14, 2018 John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy Key takeaways» We believe that real estate investment

More information

Event-Driven Investing

Event-Driven Investing Event-Driven Investing An Alternative to Beta What is Event- Driven Investing? How Does it Complement a Balanced Portfolio? Why Event-Driven Investing Now? Event-driven investing is a strategy that aims

More information

Grant Park Multi Alternative Strategies Fund

Grant Park Multi Alternative Strategies Fund Grant Park Multi Alternative Strategies Fund 2018 Mid-Year Update June 30, 2018 Summary Equities The first half of 2018 saw volatility return to the financial and commodity markets. January s optimism

More information

Seeing Equity Risk through a Cash-to-Debt Lens

Seeing Equity Risk through a Cash-to-Debt Lens WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Audrey Kaplan Head of Global Equity Strategy Ken Johnson, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst Seeing Equity Risk through a Cash-to-Debt Lens February

More information

CORRECTION PERSPECTIVES

CORRECTION PERSPECTIVES LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY February 12 2018 CORRECTION PERSPECTIVES John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS A perfect storm of investor worries collided over the

More information

FundSource. Professionally managed, diversified mutual fund portfolios. A sophisticated approach to mutual fund investing

FundSource. Professionally managed, diversified mutual fund portfolios. A sophisticated approach to mutual fund investing FundSource Professionally managed, diversified mutual fund portfolios Is this program right for you? FundSource is designed for investors who: Want a diversified portfolio of mutual funds that fits their

More information

Portfolio Optimization Aggressive-Growth Portfolio

Portfolio Optimization Aggressive-Growth Portfolio Summary Prospectus May 1, 2018 Class I Shares Portfolio Optimization Aggressive-Growth Portfolio This summary prospectus is intended for use in connection with variable life insurance policies and variable

More information

Breaking Out is Hard to Do

Breaking Out is Hard to Do WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Sameer Samana, CFA Global Equity and Technical Strategist Breaking Out is Hard to Do May 21, 2018» We believe that observing market movement and

More information

Chart 1. Gross domestic product of China, the U.S. and other major economies

Chart 1. Gross domestic product of China, the U.S. and other major economies John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE January 22, 219 Commodities What Are They Saying About China? Key takeaways» Commodity prices started getting

More information

Personal Strategy Income Fund

Personal Strategy Income Fund SUMMARY PROSPECTUS PRSIX PPIPX Investor Class I Class October 1, 2017 T. Rowe Price Personal Strategy Income Fund A fund seeking primarily income through a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, and other

More information

KP Retirement Path 2050 Fund: KPRHX. KP Retirement Path 2055 Fund: KPRIX. KP Retirement Path 2060 Fund: KPRJX. KP Large Cap Equity Fund: KPLCX

KP Retirement Path 2050 Fund: KPRHX. KP Retirement Path 2055 Fund: KPRIX. KP Retirement Path 2060 Fund: KPRJX. KP Large Cap Equity Fund: KPLCX The KP Funds KP Retirement Path 2015 Fund: KPRAX KP Retirement Path 2020 Fund: KPRBX KP Retirement Path 2025 Fund: KPRCX KP Retirement Path 2030 Fund: KPRDX KP Retirement Path 2035 Fund: KPREX KP Retirement

More information

When Gasoline Prices Matter

When Gasoline Prices Matter IN-D EPTH A NALYSIS OF THE C OMMODITY AND REAL E STATE MARKETS John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy When Gasoline Prices Matter May 17, 2018 Key takeaways» Gasoline prices have risen by 18% year-over-year

More information

FIVE KEYS TO EMERGING MARKET OUTLOOK John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

FIVE KEYS TO EMERGING MARKET OUTLOOK John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS We favor emerging market and U.S. equities for tactical asset allocations based primarily on our outlooks for global economic growth and earnings. We

More information

WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 18, 2018 Are Rising Household Debt Concerns Warranted?

WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 18, 2018 Are Rising Household Debt Concerns Warranted? Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 18, 2018 Are Rising Household Debt Concerns Warranted? Key takeaways» Concerns have risen about the

More information

KP Retirement Path 2050 Fund: KPRHX. KP Retirement Path 2055 Fund: KPRIX. KP Retirement Path 2060 Fund: KPRJX. KP Large Cap Equity Fund: KPLCX

KP Retirement Path 2050 Fund: KPRHX. KP Retirement Path 2055 Fund: KPRIX. KP Retirement Path 2060 Fund: KPRJX. KP Large Cap Equity Fund: KPLCX The KP Funds KP Retirement Path 2015 Fund: KPRAX KP Retirement Path 2020 Fund: KPRBX KP Retirement Path 2025 Fund: KPRCX KP Retirement Path 2030 Fund: KPRDX KP Retirement Path 2035 Fund: KPREX KP Retirement

More information

TRANSAMERICA FUNDS ANNUAL REPORT

TRANSAMERICA FUNDS ANNUAL REPORT TRANSAMERICA FUNDS ANNUAL REPORT OCTOBER 31, 2017 ASSET ALLOCATION FUNDS TRANSAMERICA ASSET ALLOCATION CONSERVATIVE PORTFOLIO TRANSAMERICA ASSET ALLOCATION MODERATE GROWTH PORTFOLIO TRANSAMERICA ASSET

More information

Is Diversification Still Relevant?

Is Diversification Still Relevant? Is Diversification Still Relevant? Examining the portfolio value of managed futures and other alternative investments after a 9-year equity bull market FOR BROKER DEALER AND RIA USE ONLY. NOT TO BE USED

More information

Portfolio Navigator funds Quarterly performance and commentary

Portfolio Navigator funds Quarterly performance and commentary Navigator funds Quarterly performance and commentary June 30, 2018 291426 AA VUL (7/18) The Navigator funds Performance Quarter ending 6/30/18 3 month YTD 1 year 3 year 5 year Since Inception* (Class 2)

More information

TRANSAMERICA MANAGED RISK GROWTH ETF VP (FORMERLY,TRANSAMERICA VANGUARD ETF PORTFOLIO GROWTH VP)

TRANSAMERICA MANAGED RISK GROWTH ETF VP (FORMERLY,TRANSAMERICA VANGUARD ETF PORTFOLIO GROWTH VP) TRANSAMERICA MANAGED RISK GROWTH ETF VP (FORMERLY,TRANSAMERICA VANGUARD ETF PORTFOLIO GROWTH VP) Class & Ticker Initial & Service Not Applicable Summary Prospectus May 1, 2015 (as revised May 22, 2015)

More information

The Hartford Target Retirement Funds

The Hartford Target Retirement Funds The Hartford Target Retirement Funds Sub-advised by Hartford Investment Management 2011 First Quarter Review Economic Review Asset Class Highlights Outlook Performance Review Economic Review Despite substantial

More information

THE PRUDENTIAL SERIES FUND

THE PRUDENTIAL SERIES FUND THE PRUDENTIAL SERIES FUND PROSPECTUS APRIL 30, 2018 The Prudential Series Fund (the Trust) is an investment vehicle for life insurance companies (the Participating Insurance Companies) writing variable

More information

MANAGED FUTURES INDEX

MANAGED FUTURES INDEX MANAGED FUTURES INDEX COMMENTARY + STRATEGY FACTS JULY 2017 CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE ( SINCE JANUARY 2007* ) 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% AMFERI BARCLAY BTOP50 CTA INDEX S&P 500 S&P

More information

Portfolio Optimization Conservative Portfolio

Portfolio Optimization Conservative Portfolio Summary Prospectus May 1, 2018 Class I Shares Portfolio Optimization Conservative Portfolio This summary prospectus is intended for use in connection with variable life insurance policies and variable

More information

Factor Investing. Fundamentals for Investors. Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

Factor Investing. Fundamentals for Investors. Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee Factor Investing Fundamentals for Investors Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee As an investor, you have likely heard a lot about factors in recent years. But factor investing is not new.

More information

Fortigent Alternative Investment Strategies Model Wealth Portfolios Fortigent, LLC.

Fortigent Alternative Investment Strategies Model Wealth Portfolios Fortigent, LLC. Fortigent Alternative Investment Strategies Model Wealth Portfolios Important Disclaimers The information provided is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be, and should not be construed

More information

Global Investment Committee Themes

Global Investment Committee Themes Global Investment Committee Themes The Global Investment Committee (GIC), which meets monthly to review the economic and political environment and asset allocation models for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

More information

Wells Fargo Target Date Funds

Wells Fargo Target Date Funds All information is as of 9-30-17 unless otherwise indicated. Overview General fund information Portfolio managers: Kandarp Acharya, CFA, FRM; Christian Chan, CFA; and Petros Bocray, CFA, FRM Subadvisor:

More information

Hedge Fund Research, Inc

Hedge Fund Research, Inc Hedge Fund Research, Inc. www.hedgefundresearch.com +1-312-658-0955 indices@hfr.com LAST UPDATED: February 2017 Hedge Fund Research, Inc. (HFR) has constructed an accurate, relevant, robust and contemporaneous

More information

Mixed Signals from the U.S. Economy

Mixed Signals from the U.S. Economy Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Mixed Signals from the U.S. Economy January 15, 2019 Key takeaways» Increased U.S. market volatility and negative

More information

The E-Valuator Funds* PROSPECTUS. January 31, The E-Valuator Very Conservative RMS Fund. R4 Class Shares (EVFGX)

The E-Valuator Funds* PROSPECTUS. January 31, The E-Valuator Very Conservative RMS Fund. R4 Class Shares (EVFGX) The E-Valuator Funds* PROSPECTUS January 31, 2018 The E-Valuator Very Conservative RMS Fund R4 Class Shares (EVVCX) The E-Valuator Conservative RMS Fund R4 Class Shares (EVFCX) The E-Valuator Tactically

More information

Investing Late in a Bull Market ESSENTIAL STRATEGIES FOR TODAY S INVESTOR

Investing Late in a Bull Market ESSENTIAL STRATEGIES FOR TODAY S INVESTOR Investing Late in a Bull Market ESSENTIAL STRATEGIES FOR TODAY S INVESTOR APRIL 2018 Will this be the longest U.S. bull market ever? We are in the ninth year of a U.S. economic expansion that coincides

More information

Fund Information. Partnering for Success. SSgA Real-Life Insight

Fund Information. Partnering for Success. SSgA Real-Life Insight SM SSgA Real-Life Insight Fund Information Partnering for Success For Plan Participant Use only. The information contained in this document is intended as investment education only. None of the information

More information

HATTERAS ALPHA HEDGED STRATEGIES FUND

HATTERAS ALPHA HEDGED STRATEGIES FUND Summary Prospectus April 30, 2017 HATTERAS ALPHA HEDGED STRATEGIES FUND CLASS A CLASS C INSTITUTIONAL CLASS Ticker Symbol: APHAX APHCX ALPIX Before you invest, you may want to review the Hatteras Alpha

More information

COLUMBIA VARIABLE PORTFOLIO OVERSEAS CORE FUND

COLUMBIA VARIABLE PORTFOLIO OVERSEAS CORE FUND PROSPECTUS May 1, 2018 COLUMBIA VARIABLE PORTFOLIO OVERSEAS CORE FUND (FORMERLY KNOWN AS COLUMBIA VARIABLE PORTFOLIO - SELECT INTERNATIONAL EQUITY FUND) The Fund may offer Class 1, Class 2 and Class 3

More information

What is repatriation of cash?

What is repatriation of cash? Craig Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS September 25, 2018 Repatriation How Are Firms Using Their Overseas Cash? Key takeaways» U.S. businesses are bringing

More information

Wells Fargo Compass Advisory Program Current Equity Income Portfolio

Wells Fargo Compass Advisory Program Current Equity Income Portfolio Wells Fargo Advisors Portfolio Management Quarterly Commentary Wells Fargo Compass Advisory Program Current Equity Income Portfolio December 31, 2017 Chris Hanaway, CFA Co-Portfolio Manager Jack Spudich,

More information