Assessing the Impact of Non-Tariff Measures on Imports

Transcription

1 Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies PRONTO Annual Conference: Quantifying Non-Tariff Barriers to Trade and Investment 27 February 2016 Assessing the Impact of Non-Tariff Measures on Imports Julia Grübler (with Mahdi Ghodsi and Robert Stehrer) This paper was produced as part of the PRONTO (Productivity, Non-Tariff Measures and Openness) project funded by the European Commission under the 7 th Framework Programme.

2 Issues Who? What? Methodology Ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs) of NTMs or: How to make NTMs directly comparable to tariffs? Price gap method Deriving AVEs from an analysis of the price wedge due to the implementation of NTMs Dean et al., 2009 Nimenya et al., 2012 Cadot and Gourdon, 2015 Necessity to compare different prices along the production and supply chain Neglect of product quality differences Price data availability usually restricts to few countries for a small set of products Indirect Approach Deriving AVEs with a Gravity estimation approach from the impact on import quantities and import demand elasticities Kee et al., 2009 Bratt, 2014 Beghin et al, 2014 Based on import demand elasticities, which are themselves estimates Neglect of product quality differences 2

3 Issues Who? What? Methodology Ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs) of NTMs or: How to make NTMs directly comparable to tariffs? Price gap method Deriving AVEs from an analysis of the price wedge due to the implementation of NTMs Dean et al., 2009 Nimenya et al., 2012 Cadot and Gourdon, 2015 Necessity to compare different prices along the production and supply chain Neglect of product quality differences Price data availability usually restricts to few countries for a small set of products Indirect Approach Deriving AVEs with a Gravity estimation approach from the impact on import quantities and import demand elasticities Kee et al., 2009 Bratt, 2014 Beghin et al, 2014 Based on import demand elasticities, which are themselves estimates Neglect of product quality differences New data set (WTO I-TIP complemented by Ghodsi et al, 2015) Types of NTMs Intensity Measure for NTMs Using a panel structure 3

4 Methodology Heckman two-stage estimation procedure: (1 ) Prob m ijht > 0 = α 0h + α 1 ln 1 + t ijht + α 2n NTM nijht + α 3 C ijt + ω i + ω j + ω t + ε ijht, n h; n ADP, CVD, SG, SSG, SPS, TBT, QRS; STC SPS, STC TBT N 1 I (2) ln m ijht m ijht > 0 = β0h + β 1 ln 1 + t ijht + β 2n NTM nijht + β 2n i ω i NTM n ijht + β 3C ijt n=1 i=1 + ω ij + ω t + φ ijht + μ ijht, h; n, n ADP, CVD, SG, SSG, SPS, TBT, QRS; STC SPS, STC TBT where n n Transformation to AVEs: (3 ) ln m ih NTM ih n = ln m ih ln p ih (4) AVE ih n = eβ 2n i 1 ε ih ln p ih NTM ih n = ε ihave ih n 4

5 NTMs by type: Sum % 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 2.1% 49.6% 35.2% TBT SPS QRS ADP SSG SG CVD Note: Total of 37,982 NTM notifications over the period 1979 to March 2015; Graph excludes 899 Specific Trade Concerns. 5

6 NTMs by type vs. average AVEs AVE 28.0; 9.7; 0.8% AVE 21.7; 30.0; 1.5% AVE -20.2; -12.3; 10.1% AVE 7.8; 15.1; 2.1% 0.7% AVE -11.0; % SPS AVE 6.2; % TBT AVE 4.4; 6.5 (Full sample; excl. intra-eu trade from the estimation) TBT SPS QRS ADP SSG SG CVD Note: Mean binding AVEs (i.e. statistically different from zero at the 10% level) computed as simple averages over all observations for two samples: (a) the full sample and (b) excluding intra-eu trade in the estimation 6

7 NTMs by income Note: Figures on countries affected exclude all NTMs that apply to all exporters. Income group classification of the World Bank. 7

8 NTMs by income vs. average AVEs Income Group SPS TBT QRS ADP OCA STC Simple Averages over country-specific AVEs Simple Averages over country-specific i.w. AVEs i.w. Averages over country-specific i.w. AVEs Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income Note: Income classification of the World Bank 8

9 NTMs by Product 9

10 NTMs by Product vs. simple average AVEs Note: AVE HS2 = i HS2,i AVE ih /I H ih 10

11 NTMs by Product vs. import-weighted average AVEs Note: AVE HS2 = i HS2,i AVE ih Import ih /I Import i,hs2 11

12 NTMs by Product: EU Exports vs. US AVEs EU Exports US AVEs HS2 World Exports Rank: World Rank: US SPS TBT QRS Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery [ ] Vehicles other than railway or tramway [ ] Electrical machinery and equipment [ ] Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products [ ] Pharmaceutical products Optical, photographic, cinematographic [ ] Natural or cultured pearls, precious [ ] Organic chemicals Plastics and articles thereof Aircraft, spacecraft, and parts thereof. Note: HS 2-digits computed as simple average over HS 6-digit products. Ranks are based on all products for which at least one NTM applied. 12

13 NTMs by Product: US Exports vs. EU AVEs US Exports EU AVEs HS2 World Exports Rank: World Rank: EU SPS TBT QRS Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery [ ] Electrical machinery and equipment [ ] Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products[ ] Vehicles other than railway or tramway [ ] Optical, photographic, cinematographic [ ] Natural or cultured pearls, precious [ ] Plastics and articles thereof Organic chemicals Pharmaceutical products Cereals. Note: EU aggregate computed by applying import weights at the HS 6-digit level. HS 2-digits computed as simple average over HS 6-digit products. Ranks are based on all products for which at least one NTM applied. 13

14 Data limitations shown with import-weighted AVEs of SPS measures and TBTs, sign. at 10% 14

15 Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies PRONTO Annual Conference: Quantifying Non-Tariff Barriers to Trade and Investment 27 February 2016 Assessing the Impact of Non-Tariff Measures on Imports Julia Grübler (with Mahdi Ghodsi and Robert Stehrer) This paper was produced as part of the PRONTO (Productivity, Non-Tariff Measures and Openness) project funded by the European Commission under the 7 th Framework Programme.

16 Literature Beghin, J., A.-C. Disdier, S. Marette (2014). Trade Restrictiveness Indices in Presence of externalities: An Application to Non-tariff Measures, CESifo Working Paper No. 4968, September Bratt, M. (2014). Estimating the bilateral impact of non-tariff measures (NTMs), Working Paper WPS , Université de Genève Cadot, O. and J. Gourdon, "NTMs, Preferential Trade Agreements, and Prices: New evidence," Working Papers , CEPII research center. Dean, J.M., J. Signoret, R.M. Feinberg, R.D. Ludema, and M.J. Ferrantino (2009). Estimating the Price Effects of Non-Tariff Barriers, The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 9 (1), Art. 12. Dür, Andreas, Leonardo Baccini, and Manfred Elsig (2014), The Design of International Trade Agreements: Introducing a New Database. Review of International Organizations Ghodsi, M., S. Jokubauskaite, and R. Stehrer, (2015) Non-Tariff Measures and the quality of imported products, mimeo Kee, H.L, A. Nicita, und M. Olarreaga (2009). Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices, The Economic Journal, 119: Nimenya, N., P.-F. Ndimira and B. H. de Frahan (2012). Tariff equivalents of nontariff measures: the case of European horticultural and fish imports from African countries, Agricultural Economics, 43: UNCTAD (2013), Classification of non-tariff measures. February 2012 Version, New York and Geneva. URL: 16