Assessing the impacts of NTMs in trade

Transcription

1 Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Assessing the impacts of NTMs in trade Robert Stehrer The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies wiiw Rahlgasse 3, 1070 Vienna Ad-Hoc Expert Meeting o NTM Classification, September 2015, Geneva, Switzerland. This paper was produced as part of the project "Productivity, Non-Tariff Measures and Openness" (PRONTO) funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, Theme SSH "Untapped Potential for Growth and Employment Reducing the Cost of Non-Tariff Measures in Goods, Services and Investment", Grant agreement No

2 2 PRONTO European Commission FP7 project - Untapped potential for growth and employment reducing the cost of non-tariff measures in goods, services and investment Aims - Mapping data availability, data comparison, link to other data - Impact on cross-border trade of goods and services - Quantify impacts on various economic and social aspects (welfare, labour markets, growth, sustainable developments, ) Data challenges (from a user perspective ) - Various sources; not necessarily compatible; made for specific purposes - Linking NTM data from various sources - Linking NTM data to other data (e.g. trade) Example: WTO I-TIP data

3 3 WTO I-TIP database 38,881 measures notified to the WTO secretariat since Sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) with 13,380 notifications, SPS Specific Trade Concerns (STC) with 439 notifications, - Technical barriers to trade (TBT) with 18,830 notifications, TBT STC with 460 notifications, - Anti-dumping (ADP) with 3,825 notifications, - Countervailing measure (CV) with 268 notifications, - Safeguard measures (SG) with 297 notifications, - Special Safeguards (SSG) with 581 notifications, and - Quantitative Restrictions (QR) with 801 notifications

4 Number of NTMs (hits) over time, by types of NTM 3500 TBT SPS QR TBT STC SG SPS STC ADP CV SSG Source: WTO I-TIP; Ghodsi, Reiter and Stehrer, 2015.

5 5 Number of NTMs in 2014: QR 2% SSG 2% TBT STC 1% ADP 10% SPS STC 1% SG 1% CV 1% TBT SPS ADP TBT 48% QR SSG TBT STC SPS 34% SPS STC SG CV Source: WTO I-TIP; Ghodsi, Reiter and Stehrer, 2015.

6 6 Imposing countries Affected countries (if not All members ) TBT_STC TBT SSG SPS_STC SPS SG QR CV TBT_STC SPS_STC SPS QR CV ADP 0 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income ADP 0 High Upper Lower Low income middle middle income income income Source: WTO I-TIP; wiiw calculations.

7 7 For 22,592 (out of 38,881) of all notified measures (slightly less than 60% of all notified measures in the database) no HS code is reported By various imputation strategies - (i) using information from WTO interpreted HS codes, - (ii) using information from the International Classification Standards (ICS), - (iii) Finding matches in corresponding already filled HS codes, - (iv) Product description containing all at various levels of HS codes, - (v) Using information from the Temporary Trade Barriers Database (TTBD) released by the World Bank (Bown, 2014), - (vi) Matching by set comparisons we reduced the number of measures with missing HS codes down to 9166 (about 25%) - See Ghodsi, Reiter and Stehrer (2015)

8 Imputation steps HS missing after Step 6: Approx Match Step 5: TTBD Step 4: all Step 3: Match Step 2: ICS/CAS Step 1: WTO HS Original 0 Source: WTO I-TIP; Ghodsi, Reiter and Stehrer, 2015.

9 Live animals and Vegetable products Prepared foodstuff; Products of the Machinery and Resins, plastics and Animal and vegetable Base metals and Mineral products Miscellaneous Instruments, clocks, Vehicles, aircraft and Articles of stone, Textiles and articles Wood, cork and Paper, paperboard Footwear, headgear; Hides, skins and Arms and ammunition Pearls, precious Works of art and 9 By product category (HS groups) TBT SPS QR ADP TBT_STC SSG SG SPS_STC CV Source: WTO I-TIP; Ghodsi, Reiter and Stehrer, 2015.

10 10 Summary (of very preliminary results) Assessing impact of NTM on trade flows (so far: imports) - Allows to differentiate by type of NTM and using count data based Heterogenous effects - Following standard approaches in literature, about 50% of NTMs have trade enhancing effect - On average AVEs are small (-/+ 2%), but this hides large variation across type of NTM and products - Small on average, but maybe big in detail - Quality improving effects of TBTs and SPS on average (though different across industries Ongoing research - Industry & product level detail - Bilateral impacts (incl. trade diversion effects, etc.) - Impacts in GVCs and manufacturing-services interaction