2014 Economic & Stock Market Outlook Mid-Year Chart Pack Update June 12, 2014

Transcription

1 Baird Market & Investment Strategy 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook Mid-Year Chart Pack Update June, 14 Please refer to Appendix Important Disclosures. The following charts and comments are meant to provide a mid-year update in our 14 Economic and Stock Market Outlook (Signs of Secular Progress? and Supplemental Chart Pack). Except where otherwise noted, the source for these charts is Ned Davis Research. Our weight of the evidence has moved from a mildly bullish reading at the start of the year to arguing for caution more recently. Most recently, we have seen optimism toward excessive levels across a number of indicators. Countering this has been a modest improvement in market breadth. Continued improvement in breadth could clear the way for a resumption of the cyclical rally. A more likely course (based on what we are currently seeing) is that ongoing geo-political tensions keep a damper on economic growth while optimism becomes excessive. If this is the path, stocks could face growing headwinds during the summer. As always, we will try to balance what could/should be with what is and try to stay in harmony with the message from the markets. Here, in chart form, is how we see it as we approach the halfway point in 14. The multi-year up-trend is intact, but the weight of the evidence argues for caution. Source: StockCharts Bruce Bittles Chief Investment Strategist bbittles@rwbaird.com William Delwiche, CMT, CFA Investment Strategist wdelwiche@rwbaird.com

2 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook GDP contracted in Q1 not the start to 14 many were looking for. Final Sales, however, continued to grow in 14, and the trend is drifting higher. Robert W. Baird & Co. Page 2 of 16

3 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook Slow improvement in employment-population ratio is encouraging for labor market. The number of industries seeing employment gains is also trending higher Employment Diffusion Indexes Shaded areas represent National Bureau of Economic Research recessions. Monthly Data 1/31/1991-5/31/14 One-Month Span 5/31/14 = 62.7% Three-Month Span 5/31/14 = 71.8% Six-Month Span 5/31/14 = 69.9% (E8) Copyright 14 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. Robert W. Baird & Co. Page 3 of 16

4 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook The rise in commodity prices suggests better growth, and for some, higher inflation The Economy (The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators) Economy Gain/Annum When: (5/31/1949-4//14) The Industrial Material Gain/ % Prices Diffusion Index Is: Annum of Time * Above Between 34 and and Below Source: The Conference Board Monthly Data 5/31/1949-5/31/ (E1) Source: NDR calculation using CRB data, Industrial Material Prices Diffusion Index (Nine-Month Span) Shaded areas represent National Bureau of Economic Research recessions. 5/31/14 = 61.5% Copyright 14 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved Without better wage growth, inflation concerns are likely overblown. Monthly Data 3/31/6-4//14 Real Average Hourly Earnings of All Workers 4//14 = $ (E737C) Shaded areas represent National Bureau of Economic Research recessions Year-to-Year Change Real Earnings Falling Monthly % Change Real Earnings Rising 4//14 = -.3% 4//14 = -.1% J S D 7 M J S D 8 M J S D 9 M J S D 1 M J S D 11 M J S D M J S D 13 M J S D 14 M Copyright 14 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved Robert W. Baird & Co. Page 4 of 16

5 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook Expectations for an economic bounce are high this could limit upside surprises. The policy environment is improving, but is still a net drag on the economy The Economy (The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators) Coincident Indicators Gain/Annum When: (7/31/1974-4//14) Real MF&ER Gain/ % Policy Index Is: Annum of Time Above Between -7.4 and * -7.4 and Below Source: The Conference Board Monthly Data 7/31/1974-1/31/14 (Log Scale) The Real Monetary, Fiscal & Exchange Rate Policy Index Is: Real M2 Money Supply Year-to-Year Change Plus Real Federal Expenditures ( Month Total) Year-to-Year Change Less Real Federal Receipts ( Month Total) Year-to-Year Change Less Real Broad Index of the Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar Year-to-Year Change (E99) Index Moved Ahead By 6 Months Policy Easy = Economic Expansion NDR Real Monetary, Fiscal & Exchange Rate Policy Index Shaded Areas Represent National Bureau of Economic Research Recessions Policy Tight = Economic Contraction 1/31/14 = -9.4% Copyright 14 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved Robert W. Baird & Co. Page 5 of 16

6 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook Policymakers need to be proactive as recent gains are on course to reverse. Federal Government Budget with CBO Projections FY FY $ Billions 11 Actual $-1 Actual Actual Projected -514 Projected Projected Projected -581 Projected Projected -2 Projected Projected Projected Projected -147 Projected -174 Budget Surplus Budget Deficit CBO Projections (E1) Copyright 14 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. Fed-talk has turned from taper pacing to the timing of rate hikes, still a year out. Source: Federal Reserve Robert W. Baird & Co. Page 6 of 16

7 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook Bond yields appear about right given the current macro backdrop Year Treasury Note Yield Normal Valuation Line 1-Year Treasury Note Yield Normal Valuation Line 5/31/14 = 2.31% ( ) Source: Federal Reserve Board In Basis Points +1 Standard Deviation U.S. 1-Year Treasury Note Yields 5/31/14 = 2.56% ( ) Determinants of Fair Value Sensitivity Core PCE Price Index Month T-Bill Yield. Real German Bond Yield. 32 Real GDP Trendline Growth. 1 Bullish For 1-Year Treasurys (Yields Too High) -1 Standard Deviation Monthly Data /31/19-5/31/14 (Log Scale) Bearish For 1-Year Treasurys (Yields Too Low) Barclays L-T Tsy (post 1979) + S&P L-T Gov. (pre 1979) Bond Price Index % Gain Months After After Later < -1 SD > +1 SD Source: Fair Value Calculation, NDR /31/14 = (B41A) 1-Year Note Yields Over or Under Valued Copyright 14 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. Stocks remain overvalued by about % based on this comprehensive look. 1,88 1, DAVIS5 S&P And "Normal" Valuation S&P Index S&P Normal Valuation Line S&P Percent Over/Under Valued Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc., S&P Dow Jones Indices, Standard & Poor's Monthly Data to (Log Scale) S&P Average % Gain Years Later 1/ Above Below Market Undervalued The normal valuation line is calculated from six independent valuation lines based on: Dividends, Earnings, Cash Flow, Sales, CPI-adjusted P/E and Trend. Each month represents the median of these six measures. Overvalued S&P = "Normal" = = 33.% Copyright 14 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at For data vendor disclaimers refer to 1,88 1, Robert W. Baird & Co. Page 7 of 16

8 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook From a size perspective, mid-caps are the least overvalued and small-caps, the most Monthly Data 9//198-5/31/14 (Log Scale) NDR Multi-Cap Institutional Equal-Weighted Equity Series With Large- and Small-Cap P/E Valuation Measures Median=19.1 Median=.1 NDR Multi-Cap Institutional Equity Series (Equal-Dollar Weighted Index) NDR Multi-Cap Median Price/Earnings Ratio Total Issues = 14 NDR Large-Cap Median Price/Earnings Ratio Total Issues = 422 NDR Small-Cap Median Price/Earnings Ratio Total Issues = 1443 Median=22.2 5/31/14 = 23.3 Overvaluation relative to norm = 21.7% 5/31/14 = 21.1 Overvaluation relative to norm = 17.1% 5/31/14 = 28.8 Overvaluation relative to norm = 29.9% (DAVIS31B) Copyright 14 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. Earnings are not providing any valuation relief, and this is with margins still high Growth of Corporate Profits vs Average of Last Six Expansions Year-to-Year Change of Profits From Current Production (Adjusted Before-Tax Profits) Current Expansion ( ) Average of Last Six Post World War II Expansions* ( ) *Dates of expansions designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Expansion starting dates used: November 19, March 19, July 198, November 1982, March 1991, and November 1 Quarterly 6//7-3/31/ (E627A) Copyright 14 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. Robert W. Baird & Co. Page 8 of 16

9 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook Now optimism is returning advisory services are their most bullish in 1 years. Dip-buying has become conditioned and complacency is now widespread. Robert W. Baird & Co. Page 9 of 16

10 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook The economic optimism missing at the beginning of 14 has begun to build NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators Source: The Conference Board Monthly Data 1/31/19-5/31/14 (Log Scale) Coincident Index Gain/Annum When: (1/31/19-4//14 ) Y/Y Change Gain/ % of NFIB Index Is: Annum of Time * Above Between -4.2 and and Below Source: National Federation of Independent Business, Small Business Economic Trends NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism 5/31/14 = NFIB Index Year-to-Year % Change Small Business Optimism Rising Small Business Optimism Falling 5/31/14 = (E2E) Copyright 14 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. Bond sentiment has moved from excessive pessimism to widespread optimism (DAVIS266) U.S. Treasury Bond Futures (13-Week Perpetual Contract) T-Bond Futures GPA When: Signal Dates 6/6/1984-6/9/14 Gain/ % Bottom Clip is Annum of Time Above * Between 38 and Below Source: Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI) Daily Data 1/3/6-6/9/14 (Log Scale) T-Bond Futures GPA When: Signal Dates 1/3/6-6/9/14 Gain/ % Bottom Clip is Annum of Time Above * Between 38 and Below M J S D 7 M J S D 8 M J S D 9 M J S D 1 M J S D 11 M J S D M J S D 13 M J S D 14 M J Excessive Optimism NDR Daily Bond Sentiment Composite Extreme Pessimism 6/9/14 = Copyright 14 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved Robert W. Baird & Co. Page 1 of 16

11 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook A lack of liquidity could exacerbate any selling that does emerge in Monthly Data 1/31/198-5/31/14 (Log Scale) NDR Total Market Value vs Money Market Fund Assets / NDR Total Market Value NDR Total Market Value Gain/Annum When: Money Market Fund Assets/ Gain/ % NDR Total Market Value: Annum of Time Above upper bracket Between brackets * Below lower bracket Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc NDR Total Market Value (Billions, Scale Right) 5/31/14 = Source: Investment Company Institute, Total Money Market Fund Assets (Scale Left In Billions) 5/31/14 = $ Money Market Fund Assets / NDR Total Market Value ( ) 5/31/14 = 11.8% 43.7 Linear Regression Trendline (Long Dashed Line) 38.2 (Scale Right) High Liquidity Low Liquidity Upper/lower brackets are a constant percentage above/below the linear regression trendline. 7.5 (S423) Copyright 14 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. Allocations to stocks remain high and allocations to cash are well-below average American Association of Individual Investors Allocation Survey Survey Mailed to Investors Average Response % Stocks Cash 26.6-Year Mean =.2% Source: All data from American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) 11 Bonds Monthly 11//1987-5/31/ /31/14 = % 5/31/14 = 19% /31/14 = 16% (AA39) Robert W. Baird & Co. Page 11 of 16

12 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook Sell in May was a no show, but the pattern says look for weakness into mid-terms. 14 is year 6 under Obama the recent instances of a 6 th year have been positive. Robert W. Baird & Co. Page of 16

13 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook Breadth at the industry group level has deteriorated, but has not broken down. The number of new highs has expanded recently, but is still below previous peaks. Source: StockCharts Robert W. Baird & Co. Page 13 of 16

14 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook Global breadth has improved with an increasing number of markets in rising trends. 3 MSCI All Country World Index vs. -Day Moving Average Daily Data to (Log Scale) I138B Source: MSCI MSCI ACWI vs. Middle Clip Indicator % of Mkts Above -Day Moving Average % Gain/ Annum % of Time * Above Below MSCI ACWI vs. Lower Clip Indicator % of Mkts With Rising -Day Moving Average % Gain/ Annum % of Time * Above Below Percentage of 44 ACWI Markets Above -Day Moving Averages = 95.5% Percentage of 44 ACWI Markets With Rising -Day Moving Averages = 88.6% Moving average direction based on reversals of.5% or greater Copyright 14 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at For data vendor disclaimers refer to The trend favoring U.S. stocks over international exposure is poised to break out. Source: StockCharts Robert W. Baird & Co. Page 14 of 16

15 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook Small-caps losing ground to large-caps is typical of the late stages of a cyclical rally. Source: StockCharts Gold rallied to its down-trend and still appears to be basing. Pessimism is emerging. Source: StockCharts Robert W. Baird & Co. Page of 16

16 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook Appendix Important Disclosures Disclaimers This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company, industry or security. The opinions expressed here reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. The information has been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy. Foreign and emerging market securities may be exposed to additional risks including currency fluctuation, political instability, foreign taxes and regulations and the potential for illiquid markets. Historically, small and mid-cap stocks have carried greater risk and have been more volatile than stocks of larger, more established companies. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON COMPANIES MENTIONED HEREIN IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P, S&P, MSCI EAFE, Lehman U.S. Aggregate Benchmark, Lehman Municipal Bond Benchmark, Russell 1, Russell Mid Cap, Russell, and Russell are unmanaged common stock indices used to measure and report performance of various sectors of the stock market; direct investment in indices is not available. Baird is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license. Baird is regulated by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, FINRA, and various other self-regulatory organizations and those laws and regulations may differ from Australian laws. This report has been prepared in accordance with the laws and regulations governing United States broker-dealers and not Australian laws. Copyright 14 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated. Other Disclosures UK disclosure requirements for the purpose of distributing this research into the UK and other countries for which Robert W Baird Limited holds an ISD passport. This report is for distribution into the United Kingdom only to persons who fall within Article 19 or Article 49(2) of the Financial Services and Markets Act (financial promotion) order 1 being persons who are investment professionals and may not be distributed to private clients. Issued in the United Kingdom by Robert W. Baird Limited, which has offices at Finsbury Circus House, Finsbury Circus, London EC2M 7EB, and is a company authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. For the purposes of the Financial Conduct Authority requirements, this investment research report is classified as objective. Robert W Baird Limited ("RWBL") is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license. RWBL is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA") under UK laws and those laws may differ from Australian laws. This document has been prepared in accordance with FCA requirements and not Australian laws. Robert W. Baird & Co. Page 16 of 16