Mexican Gold Corp. (TSX.V:MEX) Recommendation - BUY; Target Price - $1.15 Potential To Build One Of The Highest Grade Mines In Mexico

Transcription

1 Mexican Gold Corp. (TSX.V:MEX) Recommendation - BUY; Target Price - $1.15 Potential To Build One Of The Highest Grade Mines In Mexico

2 Initiating with a Buy Rating and a C$ 1.15 per share Target Price Mexican Gold is a Thunder Bay based mining company with their flagship project in the advanced exploration stage in Mexico. Our Price Target of C$ 1.15 per share for MEX is based on the enterprise value per ounce of M&I resources of comparable companies. We are initiating coverage on Mexican Gold with a BUY recommendation and C$ 1.15 per share target price. Our target price is very conservative given the blue sky potential of the Las Minas deposit. Mexican Gold Is Advancing Its Flagship Las Minas Project In Mexico Mexican Gold is focused on advancing its Las Minas project located in western Veracruz State. The near-term goal is to expand the resource estimates for the El Dorado/Juan Bran and Santa Cruz zones. We expect drilling to expand the El Dorado zone and the Santa Cruz zone as both are open on strike and down dip. In the next six to eight months we expect the company to update the initial resource estimate to include results from recently completed drilling. Exploration Could Lead To More Mineralized Discoveries El Dorado/Juan Bran and Santa Cruz mineralized zones are just two out of the eight mineralized zones that have been identified to date. Exploration potential in the area is significant, and if the drill results are as promising as those most recently presented, we expect Las Minas to have an M&I resource of at least Moz of gold within the next months. MEX recently reported drill results from the dike contact zones at the El Dorado/Juan Bran zone. The best hole intersected 9.24 g/t gold equivalent over 30 m. The dike contact mineralization occurs as vertical zones on both sides of a 70 m wide dike. The weighted average grade of the two zones of 3.2 g/t gold equivalent is almost double than the initial resource estimate grade of 1.9 g/t gold equivalent.

3 INVESTMENT POSITIVES A NI Resource That Will Continue To Grow Flagship Asset In Geologically Prospective Mining District The company s flagship Las Minas project is strategically located within the geologically rich eastern portion of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Eight mineralized zones have been discovered so far on the property. The two zones that have been the focus of drilling to date are both skarn deposits. Within Mexico, the Las Minas skarns are similar to the deposits discovered in the prolific Guerrero Gold Belt of southwestern Mexico, which hosts over 30 Moz of gold. Las Minas Could Be The Next High Grade Mine In Mexico In our view, Mexican Gold could potentially have Moz of gold in M&I resources over the next months. Were the company to make a production decision at that point, the Las Minas project could be put into production as early as At their current resource grade, the project would be economical at US $1,250/oz price of gold, US $2.50/lb price of copper, and US$ 15/oz price of silver. Las Minas project currently hosts total Measured and Indicated Resource of 304,000 Au Eq ozs. There is a total Inferred Resource of 719,000 gold equivalent ounces. This resource will grow significantly. The weighted average gold grades reported from the recent drill holes, both at the El Dorado as well as the Juan Bran zones, have shown significantly higher grade than the M&I resource grade of 1.9 g/t. As exploration drilling continues at Cinco Senores and Minillas zones, we believe that Mexican Gold will be able to delineate these zones as well as add to the current resources. We also expect to see the company identify more drilling targets based on the success of the field exploration at Santa Cruz and Pueblo Nuevo. Las Minas Potentially As Big As The Guerrero Belt That Hosts Over 30 Moz Of Gold The Las Minas district is one of the largest underexplored gold-silver-copper skarn systems known in Mexico, and has a production history that extends back to the Aztec era. The Las Minas granodiorite intrusive measures approximately 10 kilometres in diameter and underlies the Las Minas concessions. The mineralization controls and association with magnetite are similar to the Guerrero Gold belt, site of the Los Filos and Morelos gold deposits. The Guerrero Gold Belt holds gold deposits in excess of 30 Moz of gold. Given the historical context and geological similarities, potential growth for Las Minas over the next few years is significant. FIGURE 1 - Location of Las Minas in Mexico Las Minas Has The Potential To Be Recognized As A New Belt And Region For Mining, Comparable To The Prolific Guerrero Gold Belt

4 INVESTMENT RISKS Technical Risks Mineral exploration and development involves a high degree of risk; not all properties being explored will ultimately be developed into producing mines. New mines often face a few development/commissioning issues, which should be addressed. Mexican Gold has an advanced stage exploration project in Mexico. As the project is strategically located within the highly prospective and pro-mining region of Mexico, we do not foresee any major issues with development of the projects. However, unforeseen circumstances could lead to delays in development. Future Financing Will Result In Dilution Mexican Gold will need to finance the exploration and development of the project through equity and debt financing. Further releases of PEA s and pre-feasibility studies will help us more accurately estimate development capital costs, but as Mexican Gold will almost certainly have to continue to fund the exploration for its Las Minas project with equity financing, dilution is an investment risk. Foreign Exchange Risks In the event that Mexican Gold moves towards production in the coming years, the revenues for the company would be in US dollars, while a major portion of its expenses would be incurred in Mexican pesos. Any significant change in currency exchange rates between the Mexican peso relative to the US dollars would impact the company s financial results and hence the share price. Commodity Price Risks Although mining companies that are in production are affected more by commodity prices, exploration and development companies are also driven by them. Las Minas is a skarn, and when in production will be a polymetallic gold-copper-silver mine; it follows that the stock price of Mexican Gold will be sensitive to prices of gold, copper and silver.1

5 NEAR-TERM CATALYSTS Results from drilling to expand the resource at the El Dorado/Juan Bran and Santa Cruz. Results from drilling at the Cinco Senores and Las Minillas zones the recent drilling has successfully extended the mineralization at Cinco Senores zone to 120 m along trend, indicating the high potential of significant tonnage at this parallel zone. Results from field exploration work at the Pueblo Nuevo concession. Results from preliminary field work at the highly prospective Changaro zone. A new NI resource estimate to include these drilling results.

6 Mexican Gold released a NI report on its Las Minas property. The Las Minas project currently hosts a total Measured and Indicated Resource of 304,000 Au Eq ozs. Additionally, there is a total Inferred Resource of 719,000 gold equivalent ounces. We use a discounted cash flow ( DCF ) methodology generally for valuation of companies that have a PEA, Pre-Feasibility Study, or Feasibility Study completed. As Mexican Gold is still in the advanced exploration stage at its Las Minas project, we have used an Enterprise Value per ounce of resources compared to other companies with assets in similar jurisdictions. Our Target Price For Mexican Gold Is C$1.15 Per Share VALUATION In Table 1, we have listed companies with gold projects in similar jurisdictions and their enterprise value per ounce of M&I resources. Based on an Enterprise Value of $ 299/oz, we get a value of $1.15 per share for MEX. TABLE 1 Comparable Gold Companies - Valuation Company Ticker Enterprise Value M&I Resources EV/Resources Torex Gold TXG $ $251 Leagold Mining LMC $ $45 Marlin Gold MLN $ $786 Alio Gold ALO $ $63 GoGold Resources GGD $ $357 Golden Reign GRR $ $428 Golden Minerals AUMN $ $160 Average $299 Mexican Gold MEX $ $70 Mexican Gold released a preliminary resource estimate on two of the eight mineralized zones discovered to date on the property. In our estimate the preliminary resource estimate is very conservative and does not highlight the blue sky potential of the Las Minas project. Insufficient drilling has been completed on the other six zones to estimate a resource, however we emphasize the significant potential those zones could have on the ultimate size of the Las Minas deposit. In Table 2, we have tried to demonstrate what the value per share of Mexican Gold could be if the resource estimate increased by 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% from the current level. TABLE 2 Potential Upside In Figure 2 we can see that the El Dorado/Juan Bran zone has a strike of approximately 520 m and the Cinco Senores zone can be seen on the other side of the hill. No drilling has been done in between the El Dorado/Juan Bran zone and Cinco Senores zone, however it can be seen from the figure that the mineralization at El Dorado/Juan Bran zone is open in all directions and could be connected to the Cinco Senores zone. This gives us a mineralization of another 670 m in strike. Assuming this mineralized zone has a strike of 670 m by 250 metres and a thickness of 20 m, at an average gold grade of 1.5 g/t, we can easily come up with over 450,000 oz of gold.

7 CORPORATE OVERVIEW A Junior Mining Company Focused On Mexico Mexican Gold Corp. (MEX) is a Thunder Bay-based junior resource company. The flagship asset of Mexican Gold Corp. is the Las Minas project in Central Veracruz State, Mexico. The shares of Mexican Gold are listed on the TSX Venture Exchange (TSX-V) under the symbol MEX.

8 LAS MINAS - THE FLAGSHIP PROJECT Las Minas Project Is Located In The Historic Mining District Of Las Minas The Las Minas project has two gold-silver-copper deposits in advanced-stage exploration, and multiple high-quality exploration targets. The project has highly prospective geology, is located close to infrastructure, and has a local community which can supply labor force for the project when developed. An advantage of being in an historic mining district is the positive rapport between local communities and mining companies. In historic districts like Las Minas, communities are cognisant and appreciative of the economic and social benefits mining brings---employment, infrastructure development, and standard of living. This symbiotic relationship between the communities and the mining industry helps reduce labor disruptions and other potential anti-mining activities. In our view the market will soon realize the potential here of building a significant resource at Las Minas and warrants the same attention that is enjoyed by the C$ 971 MM market cap Torex Gold Resources ((TSE:TXG). The Las Minas resource has the potential to grow 5-6 times bigger In order to understand the potential scope at the Las Minas project, we have tried to compare the progress at the Media Luna deposit and draw conclusions about how big Las Minas could potentially be. The Media Luna deposit, hosted in a magnetic anomaly, was discovered in March of 2012 and has current inferred resources of 7.4 million gold equivalent ounces at a grade of 4.48 g/t gold equivalent. This resource is contained in less than 30% of the area of the targeted magnetic anomalies. On June 13, 2012 Torex Gold announced the first five holes drilled into the Media Luna target, with intervals that included 6.13 g/t Au, 58.7 g/t Ag, and 2.40% Cu over 4.8m in ML-01, and 4.27 g/t Au, 9.0 g/t Ag and 0.78% Cu, over 4.4m in ML-02, and 6.56 g/t Au, 10 g/t Ag and 1.15% Cu, over 7.1m in ML-08. On June 18, 2013 Torex reported in a press release that Media Luna maiden resource estimate was expected by early Q4/13 and that a total of 128 drill holes were completed at Media Luna over a strike length of approximately 1.85 km and a width of 1 km. In August 2013, within 18 months of making the discovery, Torex announced the maiden NI resource estimate of 5.84 million gold equivalent ounces, including 3.3 million ounces of gold, at its Media Luna Project in Mexico. The average resource grade is 4.55 g/t Au Eq. (Au g/t, Ag g/t, Cu %) at a 2.0 g/t Au Eq. cutoff grade. The resource is contained within a single, continuous, strongly mineralized system, which remains open in several directions. This maiden resource was based on 165 holes (94,206 m). Mexican Gold started to drill the Las Minas project in Q On September 15, 2017 Las Minas reported its maiden resource estimate based on 19,636 m of drilling and 140 drill holes. The NI confirms the Las Minas project currently hosts a total Measured and Indicated Resource of 304,000 Au Eq ozs contained within 4,970,000 tonnes grading 1.90 g/t Au Eq. Additionally, there is a total Inferred Resource of 719,000 gold equivalent ounces contained within 10,304,000 tonnes grading 2.17 g/t Au Eq. The project also has an underground total measured and indicated resource of 1,183,000 tonnes grading 3.00 g/t Au Eq. Mexican Gold has continued to drill at the Las Minas project. From the recently reported drill holes the best hole intersected 9.24 g/t gold equivalent over 30 m. The drilling to date has concentrated on just 2 out of 8 mineralized zones identified by the company. To date, only 25% of the total land area has been explored at the Las Minas project. With more drilling, we could ultimately see the resource estimate at Las Minas being comparable to the resource estimate at Media Luna.

9 FIGURE 2 Las Minas Mineralized Zones Located Close To Infrastructure The village of Las Minas is adjacent to the Las Minas property, with a high-speed road and rail corridor located nearby. It is 250 km from Mexico City by road, and 160 kms from the Gulf port of Veracruz. The largest town in proximity to Las Minas is Perote, with a population of 38,000. The property is located close to a small hydroelectric facility, good roads, abundant water and a local labor pool. The project is fully permitted for drilling and up to date on federal and state environmental requirements.

10 El Dorado And Santa Cruz Deposits Can Be Classified As Skarns Mexican Gold is defining two skarn deposits on their Las Minas project. The two principal mineralized occurrences on the Las Minas property are the El Dorado-Juan Bran and Santa Cruz zones, spanning a distance of approximately 2 km and surrounding the village of Las Minas. Other mineralized zones exist on the property, but have generally been subject to less exploration work. Both of the gold-copper-magnetite skarn deposits are extensions of historic mines which once were in production. Both deposits are accessible from surface, and the grade of their mineralization is continuous and well-understood. Metallurgical work has outlined excellent metal recoveries from flotation only, without any requirement for cyanidation processing. There are several historic mines in the district and Mexican Gold Corp may consider consolidation of the entire mining district in the future. Gold occurs in magnetite and sulfide bearing skarn. The assays show a strong correlation of gold and copper. Mineralization Similar to the Skarns found in the 30Moz Guerrero Gold Belt The mineralization of the skarns discovered at Las Minas project is similar to the mineralization of the skarns found in Guerrero Gold Belt in southwestern Mexico. The gold skarns in the Guerrero Belt are distinct from the copper skarns in the belt. Gold grades in Guerrero skarns are generally in the order of 1-4 g/t; they also usually contain copper and abundant magnetite. These characteristics are similar to Las Minas mineralization. Copper is present but usually not of ore grade. The mineralized core samples from Las Minas look very similar to the core from the Media Luna deposit of Torex Gold in the Guerrero Gold Belt. As the Las Minas skarn deposits contain copper and gold in association with iron oxide, they could also be considered a variant of IOCG (Iron Oxide Copper Gold) deposit type. El Dorado/Juan Bran: The El Dorado deposit is a consistent, single, flat lying sheet of Au-Cu-(Ag)-magnetite skarn developed on the sub-horizontal contact between the carbonate platform and the regionally extensive dioritic sill. The zone has been drilled over an area of approximately 650 by 420 m. There is very little variation in the mineral distribution, textures and zoning at El Dorado.. The El Dorado zone currently has a strike of 485 meters, dip of 630 meters, and thickness of 6 to 54 meters. The zone is open in all directions and has potential to expand the current resources. Santa Cruz: The Santa Cruz deposit is a series of dipping, stacked lenses 8-40 m thick, located 100 to 150 m above the SE portion of the El Dorado. Between the two deposits are marble or inter-mineral endoskarn dikes and sills, much of it lying in the intermittent hydrothermal breccia zone. Santa Cruz is exposed on a steep slope along its entire west side, and continues across a small canyon into the Nopaltepec target. Much of the character of mineralization at Santa Cruz zone is similar to the mineralization of the El Dorado zone. Further mineralization has been intersected at Santa Cruz at drilling depths >150 m, and there is evidence on surface of mineralized magnetite skarn above the present drilling envelope. Both of these targets remain to be tested. The Santa Cruz zone currently has a strike of 100 meters, dip of 200 meters and thickness of 60 meters. The Santa Cruz zone is also open in all directions.

11 FIGURE 3 Las Minas Plan Map NI Resource Estimate Recently Completed In August 2017, Mexican Gold released the first NI compliant mineral resource estimate for the El Dorado/Juan Bran and Santa Cruz zones, two of the eight known mineralized zones at the Las Minas property. MEX has carried out five separate drilling campaigns on the Las Minas property since The NI confirms the Las Minas project currently hosts a total Measured and Indicated Resource of 304,000 Au Eq ozs contained within 4,970,000 tonnes grading 1.90 g/t Au Eq. Additionally, there is a total Inferred Resource of 719,000 gold equivalent ounces contained within 10,304,000 tonnes grading 2.17 g/t Au Eq. The project also has an underground total measured and indicated resource of 1,183,000 tonnes grading 3.00 g/t Au Eq. The NI resource estimate was prepared by John T Boyd and based on data generated from 140 diamond drill holes totaling 19,636 meters of drilling and including 4,247 assays. The two zones remain open for expansion on strike and down dip. The metallurgical tests indicate excellent copper and precious metals recoveries achieved by flotation with 97% copper, 91% gold and 89% silver recoveries.

12 FIGURE 4 Final Mineralized Solids FIGURE 5 Whittle Pit Shell

13 Material Classification Cutoff Grade (g/t Au) TABLE 3 NI Resource Estimate Estimated Gold Equivalent Grade (g/t Au) Estimated Gold Grade (g/t Au) Estimated Copper Grade (% Cu) Estimated Silver Grade (g/t Ag) Tonnes Contained Gold Equivalent Troy Open Pit Measured ,000 5,000 Open Pit Indicated ,668, ,000 Open Pit Measured+ Indicated Ounces ,730, ,000 Open Pit Inferred ,073, ,000 Underground Measured Underground Indicated ,000 18,000 Underground Measured+ Indicated ,000 18,000 Underground Inferred ,183, ,000 OP+UG Measured ,000 5,000 OP+UG Indicated ,891, ,000 OP+UG Measured+ Indicated ,953, ,000 OP+UG Inferred ,256, ,000 The Los Filos Mine And Media Luna Have 18.9 Moz Gold In Resources The El Dorado - Juan Bran and Santa Cruz deposits are skarns similar to the Los Filos deposit and Media Luna deposit, located approximately 400 km away and hosting 5.3 Moz in gold. The Los Filos Mine (Leagold Mining Corp.) is one of Latin America s largest gold mines. The Mine currently consists of two open pit mines, Los Filos and Bermejal, an underground mine at Los Filos, and the opportunity to develop an underground mine at Bermejal as an expansion project. The Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves at Los Filos total 40.7 Mt at 1.30 g/t containing 1.47 Moz gold. FIGURE 7 - Los Filos Mine Plan The Media Luna deposit (Torex Gold Resources) is one of the richest open pit gold deposits at a resource grade of 4.48g/t. The Media Luna deposit, hosted in a magnetic anomaly south of the Balsas River, was discovered in March of 2012 and has current inferred resources of 7.4 million gold equivalent ounces at a grade of 4.48 g/t. This resource is contained in less than 30% of the area of the targeted magnetic anomalies. The conceptual design contained in a positive PEA announced in July of 2015 envisions an underground operation with expected average annual production of 313,000 ounces of gold equivalent at an average AISC of US$636/oz. The mineralization of the skarns discovered at Las Minas project is similar to the mineralization of the skarns found at Media Luna. The Media Luna project has three main magnetic anomalies covering an area of approximately 630 hectares. Both of these deposits are skarns and have a strong magnetic footprint. In both of these deposits the mineralized skarn units are found between structurally competent marble and granodiorite rock units. The Las Minas project is located in a district scale geological setting estimated to be 10 km by 12km, which eventually has the potential of being as big as the Los Filos or Media Luna projects.

14 SHARE CAPITALIZATION As of December 20, 2017, Mexican Gold had 37.8 MM common shares issued and outstanding. It also had 3.4 MM stock options outstanding at an average exercise price of C$ 0.38/sh and 21.2 MM share purchase warrants outstanding at an average exercise price of C$ 0.40/sh. Based on the closing market price of C$ 0.33 as of 20 December, 2017, Mexican Gold had a market capitalization of about C$ 12.7 MM. Fully Diluted 62.4 MM.

15 MANAGEMENT AND BOARD OF DIRECTORS Brian Robertson - CEO & Director Mr. Robertson has over 35 years of experience in all aspects of the resource industry including exploration, mine permitting, development and operations. During his 21 year career with Placer Dome, he operated mines in Canada as well as offshore. He has directed exploration programs throughout Canada, Mexico and Turkey. Mr. Robertson holds a B. Sc. Degree in Mining Engineering and a Graduate Diploma in Business Administration. He is a registered P. Eng. In the province of Ontario. Gavin Nelson CFO Mr. Nelson has over 10 years of finance experience in public practice, corporate accounting and reporting, including being responsible for all levels of financial reporting and day-to-day accounting oversight for a number of public exploration companies and private entities. He is a member in good standing of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Ontario. Mr. Nelson holds a Bachelor of Administrative and Commercial Studies, with a minor on Political Science from the University of Western Ontario. Ali Zamani - Chairman of the Board and Director Mr. Zamani served as the Managing Partner of Overlook Investments LLC since January Prior to Overlook Investments, Mr. Zamani served as a Portfolio Manager at Gefinor Capital Management and as Chief Investment Officer of the GEF Opportunities Fund. From , Mr. Zamani was a Principal at SLZ Capital Management. Prior thereto, he was a Portfolio Manager at Goldman Sachs & Co from 2004 to 2012 responsible for managing the firm s proprietary investments in publicly traded mining and materials companies.

16 MANAGEMENT AND BOARD OF DIRECTORS Gorden Glenn Director Mr. Glenn has extensive experience in the mining sector, having held senior positions with a number of major Canadian Banks and Securities firms. His financial market experience includes mine finance, M&A, and project evaluation. Mr. Glenn is currently President, CEO and Director of Minnova Corp and holds an Honours Bachelor of Science degree in Geological Sciences from Queen's University. John Anderson Director John Anderson has over 20 years of Capital market experience specializing in the resource sector. He was a founder and Financier of many start-up companies with experience on the TSX, NYSE, NASDAQ, London AIM and Swiss Stock Exchange. He was a founder of Deep 6 PLC, American Eagle Oil and Gas as well a founding general partner in Aquastone Capital LLC, a New York based gold fund. Anderson has raised more than $35 million for Triumph Gold (formerly Northern Freegold). Prior to this, he worked in Investor Relations at Bema Gold and corporate Development at Manulife Financial in commercial real estate development.

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