Driving Long-Term Value from Solid Foundations. Denver Gold Forum. Octavio Alvídrez. 19 September 2016

Transcription

1 Driving Long-Term Value from Solid Foundations Denver Gold Forum Octavio Alvídrez 19 September 2016

2 Disclaimer This document includes statements that are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. These forwardlooking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology, including the terms believes, estimates, plans, projects, anticipates, expects, intends, may, will, or should or, in each case, their negative or other variations or comparable terminology, or by discussions of strategy, plans, objectives, goals, future events or intentions. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. They appear in a number of places throughout this document and include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the Fresnillo Group s intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, among other things, the Fresnillo Group s results of operations, financial position, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies and the silver and gold industries. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and the actual results of the Fresnillo Group s operations, financial position and liquidity, and the development of the markets and the industry in which the Fresnillo Group operates, may differ materially from those described in, or suggested by, the forward-looking statements contained in this document. In addition, even if the results of operations, financial position and liquidity, and the development of the markets and the industry in which the Fresnillo Group operates are consistent with the forwardlooking statements contained in this document, those results or developments may not be indicative of results or developments in subsequent periods. A number of factors could cause results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements including, without limitation, general economic and business conditions, industry trends, competition, commodity prices, changes in regulation, currency fluctuations (including the US dollar and Mexican Peso exchange rates), the Fresnillo Group s ability to recover its reserves or develop new reserves, including its ability to convert its resources into reserves and its mineral potential into resources or reserves, changes in its business strategy, political and economic uncertainty. Forward-looking statements may, and often do, differ materially from actual results. Any forward-looking statements in this document speak only as of the date of this document, reflect the Fresnillo Group s current view with respect to future events and are subject to risks relating to future events and other risks, uncertainties and assumptions relating to the Fresnillo Group s operations, results of operations, growth strategy and liquidity. Investors should specifically consider the factors identified in this document which could cause actual results to differ before making an investment decision. Subject to the requirements of the Prospectus Rules, the Disclosure and Transparency Rules and the Listing Rules or applicable law, the Fresnillo Group explicitly disclaims any obligation or undertaking publicly to release the result of any revisions to any forward-looking statements in this document that may occur due to any change in the Company s expectations or to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this document. 2

3 Fresnillo at a Glance Location HERRADURA DISTRICT Key Highlights World s largest silver producer (47 moz in 2015) and Mexico s second largest gold producer (762 koz in 2015) ORISYVO Market cap of US$16 billion* CIÉNEGA DISTRICT Fresnillo plc mines (6 and a satellite mine)** Development projects (2) Advanced exploration projects (4) Exploration prospects SAN JULIÁN FRESNILLO DISTRICT Silver resources of 2 billion ounces and gold resources of 36 million ounces Mining concessions of 2 million hectares in Mexico Cash costs and AISC amongst the lowest in the industry Substantial, high quality project pipeline and strong commitment to disciplined and sustainable growth Focus on projects that can be developed into low-cost, worldclass mines * As at 15 September 2016 ** Operations at Soledad-Dipolos are currently suspended 3

4 Our Business Model and Strategy Our Business Model supported by four strategic pillars to create value 1. Maximise potential of existing operations Operate at 100% capacity Low-cost producer Optimise mining method and metallurgy to maintain high recovery rates 2. Deliver growth through development projects Track record of delivery on time and on budget Focus on CAPEX control Specialised Engineering and Construction team 3. Extend the growth pipeline Evaluate early-state acquisitions Maintain reserves for 10 years Ensure organic growth and assess key acquisition opportunities 4. Advance sustainable development Improve general health Reinforce safety Minimise the environmental impact Maintain sound relations with communities 4

5 Highlights H16 Silver production moz Gold production koz Revenues US$ million 1, Gross profit US$ million Operating profit US$ million EBITDA US$ million EBITDA margin % Total CAPEX US$ million Exploration expenses US$ million Workforce (employees + contractors) 8,034 10,661 Total assets US$ million 3,858 4,105 Cash and investments US$ million

6 Operations Review Fresnillo mine Key operating statistics 1H16 Ore processed - mt 1.19 Gold ore grade - g/t 0.70 Silver production moz 8.3 Cost per tonne US$/t 43.8 Gold production koz 20.6 Cash cost - US$/oz 3.56 Silver ore grade - g/t 234 AISC - US$/oz 8.31 Turnaround plan continues to progress Near term expectations Optimisation project Medium term trend positive Short term fluctuations expected Consolidating improvements already made Expect full year silver production up c.6% vs Expect 2H16 average silver grade of c. 235 g/t Detailed engineering ongoing; expansion of plant capacity to 9,000TPD 6

7 Operations Review (Cont d) Saucito Ciénega Key operating statistics 1H16 Ore processed - mt 1.28 Silver production moz 11.7 Gold production koz 41.8 Silver ore grade - g/t 318 Gold ore grade - g/t 1.35 Cost per tonne US$/t 40.3 Cash cost - US$/oz 0.83 AISC - US$/oz 5.53 Key operating statistics 1H16 Ore processed - kt 642 Gold production koz 36.9 Silver production moz 2.5 Gold ore grade - g/t 1.85 Silver ore grade - g/t 139 Cost per tonne US$/t 55.2 Cash cost - US$/oz -122 AISC - US$/oz 526 Capacity increase to 7,500TPD achieved 1Q16 (installation of vibrating screens) Continue to evaluate alternative options for the Ciénega expansion project 7

8 Operations Review (Cont d) Herradura Noche Buena Key operating statistics 1H16 Gold production koz 249 Gold ore grade g/t 0.69 Ore processed mt 12.6 Total volume hauled mt 60.8 Cost per tonne US$/t 7.6 Cash cost US$/oz 485 AISC - US$/oz 721 Key operating statistics 1H16 Gold production koz 99.7 Gold ore grade - g/t 0.49 Ore processed mt 8.6 Total volume hauled mt 40.3 Cost per tonne US$/t 7.8 Cash cost - US$/oz 778 AISC - US$/oz 826 Expect to decrease inventories further to c.100koz Board approval obtained for Centauro Extension project Continue to focus on cost reduction 8

9 San Julián Key metric estimates Avg. annual silver production Avg. annual gold production Pre-operative capex Cash cost (average LoM) All-in sustaining costs (average LoM) DLP capacity (phase 1) Flotation plant capacity (phase 2) Life of mine 2H16 estimated silver production 2H16 estimated gold production 2H16 avg. silver ore grade 2H16 avg. gold ore grade 10.3 moz 43.9 koz $515 m $7.77 /oz $9.33 /oz 3,000TPD 6,000TPD 13 years 2.0 moz 30.0 koz 175 g/t 2.3 g/t Construction of phase 1 completed Milling facility now processing ore and leaching plant operating normally Mine preparation & development continued allowing stockpiling of material Construction of flotation plant (phase 2) progressed as planned: on track for year end 2016 commissioning 9

10 Expected Delivery of Growth (1) (2) Expected Avg. Investment Annual (US$ million) Production PROJECT YEAR moz oz Ag & 44 koz Au SAN JULIÁN CONSTRUCTION LEACHING PLANT CONSTRUCTION FLOTATION PLANT PRODUCTION moz Ag & 13 koz Au PYRITES PLANT (Optimization project) DETAILED ENGINEERING LEACHING PLANT CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION TAILINGS FLOTATION PRODUCTION 110 Extended LoM of 390 koz Au CENTAURO EXTENSION DEVELOPMENT 2ND DYNAMIC LEACHING PLANT CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION 30 3 moz Ag FRESNILLO 9,000 TPD (Optimization project) DEVELOPMENT & CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION (3) 305* 10 moz Ag & 30 koz Au JUANICIPIO DEVELOPMENT & CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION koz Au & 1.3 moz Ag CIENEGA 5,000 TPD (Optimization project) DEVELOPMENT & CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION koz Au CENTAURO DEEP DEVELOPMENT & CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION koz Au (4) ORISYVO DEVELOPMENT & CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION (1) Estimated (2) Total average annual production (3) Total investment (of which 56% Fresnillo plc; 44% MAG Silver) (4) On hold Approved by the Board Subject to ongoing internal review (Subject to Board approval) 10

11 Brownfield Projects Pyrites Plant Centauro Extension Ciénega Optimisation Fresnillo Optimisation Centauro Deep Description Tailings processing from Fresnillo & Saucito Natural evolution of the Centauro pit at Herradura Optimisation project to increase capacity Optimisation project to increase capacity Potential underground mine beneath the Centauro pit at Herradura Expected avg. annual production Estimated preoperative capex Status Expected commissioning 3.5 moz silver 12.8 koz gold Extended LoM of 390 koz gold 15 koz gold 1.3 moz silver* 3 moz silver 65 koz gold $155 m $110 m $55 m* $30 m $130 m Resumption of project approved; environmental permits obtained; preparation of site commenced; placing orders for major equipment Board approval granted, encompassing second line of dynamic leaching plant; basic engineering commenced Continue to evaluate district s capacity requirements as exploration continues Deliver optimisation once development rates and ore grades warrant; detailed engineering ongoing Additional exploration activities ongoing to accurately delineate the ore bodies & thus determine mining method * Assuming a 5,000TPD expansion APPROVED BY THE BOARD SUBJECT TO ONGOING INTERNAL REVIEW; NOT YET APPROVED BY THE BOARD 11

12 Proven Track Record of Delivering on Time and on Budget Saucito I commissioning ($273m / 9 moz Ag) San Ramón satellite at Ciénega ($20m/ 25 koz Au; 2.5 moz Ag) Commissioning of DLP ($116m / 50 koz Au) Commercial production at Soledad-Dipolos began ($68m / 100 koz Au) Commercial production at Noche Buena began ($63m / 75 koz Au) (Total invested / expected average annual production) Milling capacity expansion at Ciénega ($25m / increase of 180 ktpy) Saucito II commissioning ($235m / 8 moz Ag) 12

13 Expected Silver Production Profile Million Oz 90.0 Attributable Yr Target of 65 moz silver by

14 Expected Gold Production Profile Thousand Oz 1,100.0 Attributable 1, Yr Target of 750 koz gold by

15 CAPEX Spend Expectations Million Usd Sustaining CAPEX New Projects 15

16 Conclusions and Outlook Precious metal prices have performed strongly YTD, but sustainability of any rally in gold and silver prices will always remain uncertain Therefore maintaining our cautious approach: contingency plan remains in place Proven strategy remains unchanged Invest through the cycle Balance growth with returns, whilst maintaining strong financial position Interim dividend of 8.6 US cents per share Focus remains on: San Julián Turnaround at Fresnillo mine Maximising margins and productivity Optimising performance Delivering returns across our mines and projects Safety On track to reach our 2016 production targets: increased target of koz of gold; moz of silver (incl. Silverstream) and our long-term strategic goal of 65 moz of silver in

17 Investment Case Strong balance sheet High quality assets Low-cost and flexible operations Disciplined approach to development Commitment to sustainable business practices 17

18 Driving Long-Term Value from Solid Foundations Appendix

19 1H16 Overview Strong production Silver +6.1%; gold +23.0% Full year gold guidance raised to a record of koz; accelerating medium term plan Substantial operational progress Continue to progress turnaround plan at Fresnillo Decreased inventories further at Herradura Increased capacity at Saucito to 7,500TPD However, regret to report two fatalities in early 2016 Maintained strong financial position Healthy cash balance; low leverage Solid profit margins and substantial cashflow from operations Dividend policy unchanged: interim dividend of 8.6 US cents per share Disciplined delivery of growth Construction of San Julián Phase 1 completed; milling facility now processing ore and operating normally Board approval for Centauro Extension project (encompassing 2 nd line at DLP) & resumption of Pyrites plant Continue to expect FY2016 capex spend of c.us$600m and total investment in exploration of c. US$ m 18

20 1H16 Financial Highlights Adjusted revenues increased 16.7% vs. 1H15 mainly as a result of higher gold volumes sold (+24.5%) and the higher realised gold price (+3.3%) Adjusted production cost decreased 5.2% Mainly due to favourable FX effects (19.3% average spot peso devaluation vs. dollar); lower electricity & diesel prices (-28.6% & -19.6%) and the positive impact of our cost reduction initiatives Partly offset by increased ore throughput at Herradura and Saucito Increase in cost of sales mainly due to the decrease in inventories at Herradura following the increased processing capacity achieved with the commissioning of the second MC plant; and to a lesser extent a decrease in inventories at Noche Buena Lower exploration expenses (-30.9%) as part of contingency plan Gross profit up 44.1%, operating profit up 99.1%, net profit up 116.9% EBITDA increased 49.1% to US$474.0m US$136.6m financial loss registered recognising time value of the gold hedging position (non-cash) as gold price recovered from US$1, per ounce at 31 December 2015 to US$1, per ounce at 30 June 2016 US$109.9 million Silverstream revaluation registered (non-cash) Cash generated from operations of US$475.2m, up 50.9% Strong balance sheet maintained - cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of US$701.2m 19

21 Income Statement (IFRS) ACCUM JUNE CHANGE C O N C E P T 2016 % 2015 % $ % (Million USD) ADJUSTED REVENUES HEDGING (METALS) TREATMENT AND REFINING CHARGES (74.1) (70.9) (3.1) 4.4 REVENUES ADJUSTED PRODUCTION COST (299.7) (33.8) (316.2) (42.0) 16.5 (5.2) PROFIT SHARING (9.9) (1.1) (6.0) (0.8) (4.0) 67.2 DEPRECIATION (165.3) (18.6) (159.7) (21.2) (5.6) 3.5 HEDGING (MXP/USD EXCHANGE RATE) (2.6) (0.3) (10.2) (1.4) 7.6 (74.8) CHANGE IN WORK IN PROGRESS (37.6) (4.2) (51.0) N/A INVENTORY WRITE DOWN N/A COST OF SALES (492.5) (55.5) (478.7) (63.6) (13.8) 2.9 GROSS PROFIT ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES (14.0) (1.6) (17.5) (2.3) 3.5 (20.2) CORPORATE EXPENSES (12.5) (1.4) (15.9) (2.1) 3.4 (21.6) EXPLORATION EXPENSES (52.1) (5.9) (75.4) (10.0) 23.3 (30.9) OTHER INCOME (EXPENSE) (4.4) (0.5) (5.3) (0.7) 0.9 (16.4) SELLING EXPENSES (7.2) (0.8) (6.7) (0.9) (0.5) 7.7 PROFIT FROM CONTINUING OPERATIONS GOLD HEDGING PROFIT/ (LOSS) (136.6) (15.4) (153.5) N/A SILVERSTREAM REVALUATION ,141.9 FINANCE INCOME / (EXPENSE) (13.9) (1.6) (19.8) (2.6) 5.9 (30.0) FOREIGN EXCHANGE GAIN / (LOSS) (8.6) (1.0) (15.6) (2.1) 7.0 (44.7) PROFIT BEFORE INCOME TAX MINING RIGHT (15.8) (1.8) (11.2) (1.5) (4.6) 41.3 INCOME TAX (73.7) (8.3) (48.6) (6.5) (4.6) 9.5 PROFIT FOR THE PERIOD ATTRIBUTABLE TO: EQUITY SHAREHOLDERS OF THE GROUP MINORITY INTEREST (1.4) (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) (1.3) EBITDA

22 Cash Flow (IFRS) CHANGE C O N C E P T (Million USD) YTD 2016 YTD 2015 $ % CASH GENERATED BY OPERATIONS BEFORE CHANGES IN WORKING CAPITAL WORKING CAPITAL 0.5 (18.0) 18.6 N/A INCOME TAX AND PROFIT SHARING PAID (67.9) (33.5) (34.4) NET CASH FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES OTHER PROCEEDS SILVERSTREAM CONTRACT (2.6) (11.5) CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION OTHERS PROCEEDS FROM THE SALE OF PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT (4.1) (94.9) TOTAL OTHER PROCEEDS (4.1) (13.4) PURCHASE OF PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT (198.8) (229.1) 30.3 (13.2) DIVIDENDS PAID (24.8) (22.1) (2.7) 12.3 NET INTEREST RECEIVED (PAID) (9.3) (17.1) 7.9 (45.9) USES OF CASH (232.9) (268.3) 35.5 (13.2) NET INCREASE / (DECREASE) IN CASH DURING THE PERIOD EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS (0.7) 0.4 (1.2) N/A CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS AT 01 JANUARY CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS AT 30 JUNE

23 Balance Sheet (IFRS) Concept 30-JUN DIC-15 % Assets (Million USD) Cash and Investments Trade and Other Receivables (8.9) Inventories (1.5) Prepaid Expenses (41.5) Silverstream Derivative Financial Instruments (99.0) Property, Plant and Equipment 2, , Other Assets (Long term) Total Assets 4, , Liabilities Change Profit Sharing (22.2) Other Liabilities (Short term) Retirement and Pension Plan Reserves (4.6) Deferred Taxes Senior Notes Other Liabilities ( Long term) (3.4) Total Liabilities 1, , Share Capital and Share Premium 1, ,153.8 N/A Share Capital Subscribed N/A Retained earnings 1, , Other Accounts (465.4) (474.4) (1.9) Stockholder's Equity 2, , Minority Interest Total Stockholder s Equity 2, , Total Liabilities and Stockholder's Equity 4, ,

24 Consolidated Cost Inflation 1H16 (USD Based) 23

25 Breakdown of Adjusted Production Costs 9.51% 1.27% 4.81% 19.42% 19.04% 28.92% 17.04% Adj Prod Cost: US$299.7m Operating Materials Energy & Diesel Maintenance 5.78% incurred by contractors 1.63% incurred by contractors 1.84% incurred by contractors Labour Others Freights 8.50% incurred by contractors 9.51% incurred by contractors Charge for use of contractor s equipment 24

26 Cost Per Tonne (IFRS) ACCUM JUNE CHANGE COST PER TONNE * 1H H 2015 % CHG. MINE UNIT Fresnillo US$/TON % Saucito US$/TON % Ciénega US$/TON % Herradura US$/TON 7.61 ** 8.71 ** -12.6% Noche Buena US$/TON 7.80 ** 8.16 ** -4.5% * Cost per tonne is calculated as total production costs less depreciation, profit sharing and the exchange rate hedging effects. ** Cost per tonne excluding unproductive costs 25

27 Cash Cost (IFRS) ACCUM JUNE CHANGE CASH COST * 1H H 2015 % CHG. MINE UNIT Fresnillo PER OZ. SILVER % Saucito PER OZ. SILVER % Ciénega PER OZ. GOLD (By-prod.) % PER OZ. GOLD (Co-prod.) ** % PER OZ. SILVER (Co-prod.) ** % PER OZ. GOLD (Equiv.) ** % Herradura PER OZ. GOLD % Noche Buena PER OZ. GOLD % * Cash cost per ounce is calculated as total cash cost (cost of sales plus treatment and refining charges less depreciation) less revenues from by-products divided by the silver or gold ounces sold. ** For Ciénega we have also shown the calculation on a co-product basis, and an equivalent ounces basis. The two coproduct lines should be considered together. 26

28 All In Sustaining Cost (US$/Oz)* CASH COST * 1H H 2015 % CHG. MINE UNIT Fresnillo PER OZ. SILVER % Saucito PER OZ. SILVER % Ciénega PER OZ. GOLD % Herradura PER OZ. GOLD % Noche Buena PER OZ. GOLD % * All in sustaining cost is calculated as traditional cash cost plus on-site general, corporate and administrative costs, community costs related to current operations, capitalised stripping & underground mine development, sustaining capital expenditures and remediation expenses 27

29 Contribution to the Adjusted Revenues and Gross Profit 1H16 1 1H16 Adjusted Revenues : US$959.4m 1H16 Gross Profit Contribution 2 By mine By metal By mine 13% 19% 4% 4% 8% 6% 37% 18% 32% 36% 57% 26% 10% 32% Fresnillo Saucito Ciénega Silver Gold Fresnillo Saucito Ciénega Herradura Noche Buena Lead Zinc Herradura Noche Buena 1 Adjusted Revenue is revenue as disclosed in the income statement adjusted to exclude treatment and refining charges and gold, lead and zinc hedging. 2 Non including hedging and non-operating companies. 28

30 Margins by mine (Metal price Cash Cost) (1H16 vs. 1H15) (USD/Oz) Fresnillo Saucito Ciénega Herradura Noche Buena 7.4Moz. 7.7Moz. 10.6Moz. 10.4Moz. 39.8Koz. 34.0Koz Koz Koz. 70.0Koz. 99.6Koz. Chg % Chg. -1.4% Chg % Chg % Chg % Ounces Sold Stoppage of operations continued at Soledad-Dipolos 29

31 Exploration Highlights Continued investment to maintain medium and long-term growth pipeline Total risk capital of US$59.8m invested in exploration 1H16 Exploration drilling: 265km across Fresnillo, Herradura, Guanajuato, San Julián & Guazapares Districts in Mexico, and Pilarica & Huacravilca Districts in Peru 12km at other early stage prospects Interesting results at San Julián, Guanajuato and Fresnillo Channel sampling and mapping of cross-cuts at Centauro Deep & Orisyvo continued Continue to expect total risk capital invested in exploration of c.us$ million for full year