Last Earnings Release 10/25/2017. Last Qtr. Actual vs. Est. $0.50 / $0.49. Next Release 02/06/2018 $0.49. Year Ending 12/31/2016 $1.
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1 Grade Earnings Last Earnings Release 10/25/2017 Last Qtr. Actual vs. Est. $0.50 / $0.49 Next Release 02/06/2018 $0.49 Year Ending 12/31/2016 $1.91 Quick Facts Dividend Yield 3.22% 52 Wk High $ Wk Low $40.44 Short Interest 1% of float $ /13/2017 Rated 'SELL' since Jul 31st, 2014, when it was downgraded from 'HOLD' Year Ending 12/31/2017 $1.97 Market Cap $195.6B Overview Company Scores Poor Fundamental Grades MarketGrader currently has a SELL rating on Coca-Cola Company (KO), based on a final overall grade of scored by the company's fundamental analysis. Coca- Cola Company scores at the 52nd percentile among all 5816 North American equities currently followed by MarketGrader. Our present rating dates to July 31, 2014, when it was downgraded from a HOLD. Relative to the Beverages: Non-Alcoholic sub-industry, which is comprised of 20 companies, 's grade of ranks 11th. The industry grade leader is PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) with an overall grade of Relative to recent market conditions the stock has performed poorly in the last six months, up 0.13% compared to 9.0% for the S&P 500 Index while better than the Beverages: Non-Alcoholic sub-industry, down 1.43%. Please go to pages two and three of this report for a complete breakdown of KO's fundamental analysis. Price, Rating and Sentiment History - 2 Years 1
2 Growth D Dismal Growth Indicators denote Very Difficult Operating Conditions and an Uncertain Outlook 's sales growth continued its ongoing long term Market Growth LT F decline last quarter. Total revenue for the period was $8.96 billion, 14.71% below the $10.50 billion booked by the company a year ago. Its Market Growth ST D 12-month trailing revenue, which also included last quarter's results, was EPS Growth F $36.98 billion, 19.76% lower than the 12 months ended three years ago. As sales continue to slide the company will need to cut costs in order to Growth Potential F protect its margins and its cash reserves. However, unless business conditions improve soon, more drastic restructuring measures may be Earnings Momentum B- required. It also reported outstanding profit growth last quarter from the year earlier period, contrasting with a long term decline in full year profits, Earnings Surprise B- which we measure over a three year period. It therefore appears that the company is in the process of reversing its long term trend of falling profits. 's Third quarter profit jumped 38.34% to $1.45 billion from $1.05 billion (excluding extraordinary items) reported in the year earlier period; on the other hand, also including its first quarter results, its 12-month trailing net income dropped 43.39% to $4.55 billion from the $8.04 billion it had earned in the 12 months ended three years earlier. The company's ongoing margin contraction continued during its most recent quarter but at a slower pace than the two preceding periods; its EBITDA, operating and net margins fell by an average 2.76% compared to the year earlier period. The company's stock had a moderate 0.11% gain after its October 25, 2017 earnings report, which beat the number analysts were expecting by 2.04%. With this report it extends its positive earnings surprise record, having beaten analysts' estimates, on average, by 1.47% with its last six earnings reports. Revenue Qtrly. 09/30/2017 $9B Revenue Qtrly. Year Ago $10.5B Revenue 1 Yr. Chg. (14.71%) Revenue 12 Mo. Tr. Latest $37B Revenue 12 Mo. Tr. 3Y Ago $46.1B Revenue 12 Mo. Tr. 3Y Chg. (19.76%) Net Income Qtrly. 09/30/2017 $1.4B Net Income Qtrly. Year Ago $1B Net Income 1 Yr. Chg % Net Income 12 Mo. Tr. Latest $4.6B Net Income 12 Mo. Tr. 3Y Ago $8B Net Income 12 Mo. Tr. 3Y Chg. (43.39%) Value D The Company Would Have to Report Stellar Results in Coming Quarters to Justify Currently Excessive Valuation 's shares trade currently at times the Capital Structure F company's 12-months' earnings per share, more than three times our "optimum" P/E of This ratio is calculated by MarketGrader by P/E Analysis F looking at the last five years' quarterly earnings, in 12-month rolling Price/Book Ratio F periods, in order to determine their growth rate. On this account Coca- Cola Company's earnings per share have fallen at an annualized rate of - Price/Cash Flow Ratio B 11.28% during this time. The recent contraction in profit margins could contribute to further deterioration in EPS growth and also lead to lower Price/Sales Ratio D Profitability grades, both of which would have a negative effect on the stock. The stock's forward P/E of 23.68, based on estimates for the next Market Value C four quarters, is higher than the S&P 500's forward P/E of but lower than its trailing P/E. The lower multiple investors are paying for its future earnings compared to past earnings reflects how high expectations are for future earnings growth, which run ahead of expectations for the market as a whole. Considering the company's poor overall fundamentals this premium over the S&P appears risky and sets up the stock for a significant fall if future earnings disappoint. 's are trading at 8.96 times their book value, which is based on the company's stockholders' equity. However, MarketGrader's price to book value analysis is based on a company's tangible book value, which excludes goodwill and other intangibles from its assets. In this case, s' intangible assets of $29.29 billion exceed its $22.12 billion in stockholders' equity by $7.17 billion, which means its tangible book value is negative. This makes the shares' price to tangible book ratio meaningless. Thus, part of the risk of owning the company's shares lies in the possibility of a significant write-down of its intangible assets, which would automatically make its shares much more expensive than they currently appear to be. The company's shares are currently valued at times the $1.85 in cash flow per share it generated during the last twelve months, a rich valuation of the company's earnings prospects based on its weak fundamental indicators. Its price to sales ratio, based on reported sales over the last 12 months, is 5.29, % higher than the Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry average of Our final value indicator looks at the relationship between the company's current market capitalization and its operating profits after deducting taxes. 's market capitalization of $ billion is very rich considering it is times the amount of quarterly net income plus depreciation most recently reported by the company. P/E Ratio 12 Mo. Tr. 09/30/ Optimum P/E Ratio 7.50 Forward P/E Ratio S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio Price to (Tangible) Book Ratio Price-to-Cash Flow Ratio Price/Sales Ratio
3 Profitability B+ Asset Utilization B- Capital Utilization B Operating Margins A- Relative Margins A+ Return on Equity Quality of Revenues company's common stock. B C Profitability Grades Are Solid, Indicating the Company's Business Is Strong and Healthy 's profitability indicators are pretty strong across the board, with strong returns on shareholder equity, industry-beating operating margins and a very healthy net profit margin. The $4.55 billion in net profits earned by the company in the last 12 months account for 12.30% of all revenue booked in the period. The average operating margin for the Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was 12.56% during the same period, 85.00% below the company's 24.82%. While Coca-Cola Company's 20.57% return on equity is solid--based on 12-month trailing earnings--it represents a slowdown from the year-earlier period's return on equity of 27.66%. Our system looks at this ratio in an attempt to measure management's efficiency in rewarding investors in the Even though the company's returns continue to be excellent, its high leverage, with total debt 2.22 times larger than total equity, should be reassessed in light of a possible business downturn. Its long term debt accounts for 59.48% of total capital. 's core operations, as measured by the company's EBITDA, have generated $12.19 billion in earnings over the last twelve months, a modest 8.50% decline from the $13.32 billion earned in the equivalent period ended a year ago. EBITDA is used as a way of measuring core earnings since it includes money earned in its operations such as interest expense, income taxes paid and depreciation and amortization, both of which are non-cash charges. Cash Flow B+ Company's Management of its Cash Flow Appears Very Sound but Could Improve in a Few Areas 's cash flow declined significantly last quarter to Cash Flow Growth F $2.53 billion, 12.95% lower than the year earlier quarterly cash flow of $2.90 billion. This extends an accelerating decline in the company's EBIDTA Margin B+ profitability since its cash flow has also fallen in the last twelve months to Debt/Cash Flow Ratio A- $2.53 billion from the $2.90 billion during the twelve months ended a year earlier, a 9.82% drop. The company's 6.79 net debt to EBITDA ratio at the Interest Cov. Capacity A+ end of last quarter was almost unchanged from last year's 6.59, which suggests it has no problems managing its leverage from the cash flow it Economic Value A- generates from operations. The ratio is based on $21.74 billion in net debt, defined as total debt minus cash on hand, and EBITDA of $3.20 Retention Rate A- billion. In the last twelve months its total debt as a percentage of total capital also increased, in this case by 7.01% from 64.43% a year ago to 68.94% in the company's latest quarter. However, 's cash on hand is now 6.99% more than it was a year before, suggesting its increased leverage is well within its means to service it and might contribute to future growth. An important part of our analysis, our Economic Value indicator measures the company's profitability not only after accounting for operating costs but also the cost of capital, both equity and debt. had a total of $54.59 billion in invested capital as of last quarter, including all forms of equity and long term debt. The company's total after tax cost of capital of 1.76% is pretty evenly distributed between equity and debt at 1.23% and 0.97% respectively. When subtracting the total cost of capital from 's 16.81% return on investment, based on 12-month trailing operating income, we arrive at 15.05% in economic value added (EVA). This number, which measures the company's true economic profit in the last year, represents a solid return to its shareholders. The company increased its quarterly common dividend on September 30, 2017 by 5.71%, to $0.370 cents a share from $0.350 cents. It has paid a dividend for at least 40 years and, based on this latest payout, the stock is currently yielding 3.22%. s spent $6.18 billion in dividends over the last twelve months, equivalent to 77.34% of its cash flow and % of its after-tax earnings. By comparison, it paid out % if its earnings during the 12 months ended the quarter before last, which means it is paying out significantly more than it is earning, eroding its liquidity and damaging its balance sheet. This is particularly worrisome in light of its generally poor fundamentals. Cash Flow Qtrly. 09/30/2017 $2.5B Cash Flow Qtrly Year Ago $2.9B Cash Flow 1 Yr. Chg. (12.95%) Cash Flow 12 Mo. Tr. Latest $8B Cash Flow 12 Mo. Tr. 3Y Ago $10.8B Cash Flow 12 Mo. Tr. 3Y Chg. (26.07%) Free Cash Flow Last Qtr. $2.2B Economic Value Total Invested Capital $71.2B Return on Inv. Capital 16.81% Weighted Cost of Equity 0.97% Weighted Cost of Debt 0.79% Total Cost of Capital 1.76% Economic Value Added 15.05% 3
4 Profile The Coca-Cola Co. is a nonalcoholic beverage company. It provides diet and regular sparkling beverages and still beverages such as 100 percent juices, juice drinks, waters, sports and energy drinks, teas and coffees and milk and soy-based beverages. The company's portfolio of brands include Diet Coke, Fanta, Sprite, Coca-Cola Zero, vitaminwater, Powerade, Minute Maid, Simply and Georgia. The company's operating segments include Eurasia & Africa, Europe, Latin America, North America, Pacific, Bottling Investments and Corporate. The Eurasia & Africa segment is engaged in supporting the 2020 Vision by delivering broad-based unit case volume growth and delivered doubledigit volume growth for the year in the areas of East and Central Africa, the Middle East, North and West Africa, Southern Eurasia and Turkey. The Europe segment is engaged in developing and implementing packaging strategies to respond to consumer needs through the availability of family packaging and lower-cost first-time buyer packaging and advancements in the energy drinks category. The Latin America segment attributes its growth from its FIFA World Cup program activation, expansion to other beverage categories, affordability strategies and accelerating market investment levels. The North America segment is engaged in building strong, value-creating brands by well-defined brand, price, package and channel strategy. The Pacific segment is engaged in managing and growing its portfolio of brands and markets with right strategies and the bottling capability of LG Household & Health Care. The Bottling Investments segment is engaged in cost management, combined with marketplace execution, operational excellence and productivity. It offers branded beverage products available to consumers throughout the world through its network of company-owned or controlled bottling and distribution operations, bottling partners, distributors, wholesalers and retailers. It was founded by Asa Griggs Candler in 1892 and is headquartered in Atlanta, GA. Key Facts: One Coca-Cola Plaza Atlanta,GA Phone: Biggest Company in Sub-Industry (KO) Grade Market Cap:$ billion Smallest Company in Sub-Industry Leading Brands, Inc. (LBIX) Grade 21.9 Market Cap:$4.23 million MarketGrader Dilution Analysis Impact of Change in Shares on EPS - Q Dilution Summary *EPS Latest $0.33 *EPS Year Ago $0.24 EPS Change 1 Yr. 40% C. Shares - Latest(M) 4,320 C. Shares - Yr Ago(M) 4,364 C. Shares - 1Yr Chg. (1%) EPS if Yr. Ago Shares $0.33 EPS Chg. if Yr. Ago 38% EPS Loss from Dilution $0.00 *Earnings per share are based on fully diluted net income per share excluding extrodinary items. This number may not match the headline number reported by the company. Income Statement Last Qtr (09/2017) 12 Mo. Trailing Revenue $9.0B $37.0B Op. Income $2.4B $9.2B Net Income $1.4B $4.6B *EPS $ *Earnings per share are based on fully diluted net income per share excluding extrodinary items. This number may not match the headline number reported by the company. Balance Sheet Total Assets Total Debt Latest $90.5B $49.1B Stockholders Eq. $22.1B All numbers in millions except EPS Ratios Price/Earnings (12 mo. trailing) Price/Tangible Book Price/Cash Flow Price/Sales 5.29 Debt/Cash Flow Return on Equity 20.57% Gross Margin (12 mo. trailing) 62.31% Total Assets Intangible Assets Long Term Debt Total Debt Book Value Enterprise Value $90.5B $29.3B $32.5B $49.1B $22.1B $21.7B '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Operating Margin (12 mo. trailing) 24.82% Net Profit Margin (12 mo. trailing) 12.30% 4
5 Top Down Analysis Consumer Staples Stocks in Sector: 211 Buys: 34 (16.11%) Holds: 42 (19.91%) Sells: 135 (63.98%) No. of stocks at: 52-Wk. High: Wk. Low: 7 Above 50 & 200-day MA: 96 Below 50 & 200-day MA: 63 Beverages: Non-Alcoholic Stocks in Sub-Industry: 20 Buys: 3 (15.00%) Holds: 6 (30.00%) Sells: 11 (55.00%) No. of stocks at: 52-Wk. High: 1 52-Wk. Low: 1 Above 50 & 200-day MA: 8 Below 50 & 200-day MA: 5 # Ticker Grade Sentiment Name Price Next EPS 1 SAFM P Sanderson Farms, Inc. $ /25/ PPC N Pilgrim's Pride Corporation $ /15/ TSN P Tyson Foods, Inc. Class A $ /02/ NHTC N Natural Health Trends Corp. $ /08/ TPB P Turning Point Brands Inc $ /12/ PEP N PepsiCo, Inc. $ /18/ SFM N Sprouts Farmers Markets, Inc. $ /09/ PETS N PetMed Express, Inc. $ /22/ K N Kellogg Company $ /02/ EL P Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A $ /02/ KO N $ /06/2018 # Ticker Grade Sentiment Name Price Next EPS 1 PEP N PepsiCo, Inc. $ /18/ FIZZ P National Beverage Corp. $ /08/ MNST N Monster Beverage Corporation $ /28/ FMX N Fomento Economico Mexicano SAB de $ /26/ DPS N Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. $ /26/ AKO.A P Embotelladora Andina S.A. Sponsored $ /02/ CCE N Coca-Cola European Partners Plc $ /09/ AKO.B N Embotelladora Andina S.A. Sponsored $ /02/ LAS.A.C N Lassonde Industries, Inc. Class A $ /13/ KOF N Coca-Cola FEMSA SAB de CV $ /26/ Price Trend. B+ 2. Price Momentum. D 3. Earnings Guidance. B- 4. Short Interest. A+ 6.8 Copyright 2010 MarketGrader.com Corp. All rights reserved. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities ("related investments"). The information herein was obtained from various sources; we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regards to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. MarketGrader does not make markets in any of the securities mentioned in this report. MarketGrader does not have any investment banking relationships. MarketGrader and its employees may have long/short positions or holdings in the securities or other related investments of companies mentioned herein. Officers or Directors of MarketGrader.com Corp. are not employees of covered companies. MarketGrader or any of its employees do not own shares equal to one percent or more of the company in this report. 5
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