Market Consistent Economic Profit (MCEP)*

Transcription

1 Ri$k Minds 2007 Geneva, December 2007 Market Consistent Economic Profit (MCEP)* Linking Risk, Value and Strategy PricewaterhouseCoopers Conor O Dowd and Mark Young * Please note that the basic concept in this outline and its associated algorithms are PwC intellectual property called MCEP

2 Agenda 1. Introduction 2. The need for a better measure of Economic Profit 3. Market Consistent Economic Profit (MCEP) 4. Industry case study and benefits 5. Appendix

3 Introduction

4 Context The current risk-adjusted profitability approaches available to financial institutions have limitations. A principal limitation (common to all) is the inability to simply allocate and reconcile risk adjusted profit across differing dimensions within a Firm. PwC s Market Consistent Economic Profit (MCEP) approach overcomes this key limitation by simply expressing lower level risk adjusted profit as additive and reconcilable and maintains the benefits common to all other approaches. Purpose Explore the common taxonomy of risk adjusted profitability approaches, highlighting the benefits and limitations. Demonstrate how MCEP provides the breakthrough that brings risk adjusted profitability measures alive, providing real competitive difference. A case study of a residential mortgage portfolio and the insights that MCEP provides over and above other approaches. * Please note that the basic concept in this outline and its associated algorithms are PwC intellectual property called MCEP

5 The risk journey a taxonomy of risk and risk culture Risk is an opportunity cost Risk is a strategic enabler All risk must be removed Risk recognition Risk measure Earnings-at-risk Drivers NPAT, costs Culture Risk-averse Goal Risk minimisation Risk must be removed; it s a cost Regulatory Risk measurement Risk measure Solvency and resilience based Drivers NPAT, costs, regulatory and compliance driven Culture Risk-averse policy and compliance driven Goal Limit driven Risk is a cost to be reduced Risk management Risk measure Value-at-risk Drivers NPAT, costs and limits Culture Risk-averse and policy driven Goal Limit driven Level of Risk Awareness Moving from risk aversion to value Risk-adjusted performance Risk measure Economic capital Profit-at-risk Drivers NPAT, EC and internally focused Culture Risk seen as a performance driver Goal Report and control EC Current benchmark practice Tradition al EP limits integrati on Integrated view of risk and value Risk measure Integrated, value-based measure Drivers Key internal and external forces Culture Risk-aware Goal Risk integral part of business practices Primary focus is to remove all risk Risk is seen as a cost to be driven down Risk is to be optimised with profit

6 The need for a better measure of Economic Profit Performance measures need to be linked to the investor s (market valuation) perspective Key issues: Risk 1. The problems with current approaches to Economic Profit. 2. The need to look at performance from a valuation perspective Capital Profit

7 The current orthodoxy is not justified economically Risk 1. In proportion to risk you need capital SOLVENCY 3. In proportion to risk you need profit Capital PERFORMANCE Profit 2. In proportion to capital you need profit

8 The traditional measure of Economic Profit presents a problematic situation In the traditional view, profit is charged for risk via: Economic profit = profit minus a capital charge of risk based capital times cost of capital Key problems with this definition are: Risk based capital and cost of capital are inter-related through gearing, so that for example as capital reduces, the cost of capital increases The cost of capital should vary by business unit due to mix of risk (but how?) Capital charges made against individual business units do not add up to the Group capital charge unless a problematic and contentious diversification benefit is addressed (but how?)

9 A market-consistent valuation perspective on risk and reward The solvency perspective Economic (risk-based) capital view Resilience to all types of risk that require capital support Risk The investor perspective Risk-adjusted performance, investment decision, pricing and value view Reward for risks that affect value Capital Optimisation subject to capital constraints Profit

10 Market Consistent Economic Profit (MCEP) PwC s MCEP is a breakthrough concept, allowing a proper separation of value into its risk-free and risk components Key issues: 1. Building blocks of MCEP Value 2. The theoretical break through underpinning the approach. Risk-free component Risk component

11 This leads to consideration of the properties of a sound Economic Profit measure Additive EP can be added together across any dimension of a business to produce Group EP. Scaleable EP can be measured at any level across a business. Integrated EP can be related to a meaningful concept of value, for example a market consistent economic value. Rigorous EP is underpinned by a pricing framework that is based on the market price of risk and capital.

12 PwC s MCEP is a breakthrough concept, allowing a proper separation of value into its risk-free and risk components Value Risk-free component Risk component Risk-free component is the payoff discounted at the riskfree rate The risk charge isolates the effect of risk on investment value

13 Market Consistent Economic Profit Risk MCEP = Profit less Risk Charge a Risk charge less a Funding charge equal to the risk-free Capital Funding Charge Profit rate times capital.

14 MCEP Technical Details - The concept of a stochastic discount factor Modern asset pricing theory is cast in terms of stochastic discount factors. These are marginal rates of substitution between consumption at the start and end of a period and they allow assets (such as a business unit) to be priced as follows: p = E (m x) * where p is economic value of the asset x m is the payoff of the asset (a random variable), is the stochastic discount factor applying given the state of consumption at the time (another random variable). * E (m x) denotes the expected value of the product of m and x. 31

15 MCEP Technical Details - Stochastic discount factors differentiate the price of risk The discount factor m co-varies negatively with consumption, so that adverse payoffs when consumption is depressed are given greater weight than favourable payoffs when consumption is buoyant. Payoff x is strongly negatively cyclical (eg. credit risk) Payoff x is not cyclical (eg. operational risk) equates to discounting at the risk free rate r m 0 p p x

16 MCEP Technical Details Economic Profit measures the change in the market consistent economic value of the payoff MCEP is a fully risk-adjusted multi-period measure of economic profit. It can be discounted at the risk-free rate, unlike traditional economic profit. MCEP = p 1 / (1 + r) p 0 MCEP m x 0 p 0 p 1

17 MCEP Technical Details - MCEP Market Consistent Economic Profit = profit = P MCEP less the risk charge* + (1 + r ) covar (m, x) less the funding charge p r (equal to the risk-free rate times the opening value**) Additive MCEP is additive: the sum of the results across all business units adds to the Group result * the covariance of m and x is typically negative ** in practice funding charges are often based on net assets

18 MCEP Technical Details - The concept of a value driver Value Drivers are key significant random variables on which the payoff x (in this context profit) depends. The randomness in the value drivers are often correlated because of systematic risk particularly risks related to the economy. To apply the SDF to a particular asset, the correlations of the value drivers to growth in consumption needs to be determined. Value Drivers can be calibrated using a simple financial model of the business eg. budgeting models New Business Acquisition Customer Retention For example, the most important random variable may be Revenue, which depends on the value drivers New Business Acquisition and Customer Retention. 0 p m x

19 MCEP Technical Details - the PWC Risk Charge formula PwC has developed a closed-form solution for the Risk Charge in both a single-period and multi-period setting, under the following simplifying assumptions: Constant Relative Risk Aversion utility to specify m. Value drivers are expressed as growth rates in the payoff x (growth in profit) Value driver growth rates are lognormal and independently and identically distributed from period to period, and the weights (effect on profit) attaching to the value drivers are constant. The business cash flows continue indefinitely in a multi-period setting, which is suitable for practical purposes because the calculation is re-based each year using parameters that are suitable at the time. This formula-based approach* makes MCEP very straightforward to put into practice. * The formula and the details of its derivation are made available on a commercial-in-confidence basis to clients who use MCEP

20 Industry case study and benefits Drilling down on MCEP and the insights it provides to a residential mortgage portfolio. Key issues: 1.Establishing the conditions for understanding the benefits of MCEP. Current strategy and outlook Base Examining the outcomes for a residential mortgage portfolio. Economic downturn, 1 with no change in strategy Economic downturn with change in strategy

21 Establishing the conditions for realising the benefits Approach We illustrate the method with an example of a stand-alone mortgage business with a small set of key value drivers. The specific choices of drivers and inputs in the example are illustrative but drawn from Australian banking experience. The method can accommodate any choice of drivers and inputs and the example is designed to demonstrate its simplicity. Steps required The method requires the following steps: Identify the key value drivers in each business unit, and the risk factors they are subject to. For each key value driver, forecast the: expected total return variability of the return contribution to the overall return correlations between the - driver returns - driver returns and the market return Calculate MCEP Value Drivers of the Mortgage Business For the stand-alone mortgage business we focus on the value of the business at the end of a one-year investment horizon and work with the following key value drivers: New Business Funding Customer Retention Credit Quality

22 Modelling the outcomes of different scenarios and outcomes on MCEP Key inputs and assumptions Overall conditions Risk Free Rate 5% Investment $100 Time horizon 1 year Driver forecasts Current strategy and outlook Scenarios Base Economic value of the investment is $100 Expected profit for payoff of $ Profit = $7.14 less risk charge $1.06 less funding charge $5.00 Outcomes MCEP = $1.08 Zero or positive MCEP denotes an appropriate level of reward for time and risk Expected Standard Growth Rate Deviation NewBusiness Funding Customer retention Economic downturn, with no change in strategy New Business Expected Standard Growth RateDeviation MCEP = ($10.39) Economic value is $90, a loss of $10 on the initial investment Credit Quality Funding Customer retention Need to change strategy Correlations Credit Quality New Customer Credit Market Business Funding retention Quality Portfolio New Business 100% 20% 0% -40% 30% Funding 20% 100% 30% 30% 20% Customer retention 0% 30% 100% -20% -20% Economic downturn with change in strategy New Business Expected Standard Growth RateDeviation MCEP = ($3.87) Economic value is $96, an improvement of $6 compared to no change in strategy Credit Quality -40% 30% -20% 100% 60% Market Portfolio 30% 20% -20% 60% 100% Funding Customer retention Credit Quality Need to change operations

23 Modelling the outcomes of different scenarios and outcomes on MCEP Key inputs and assumptions Scenarios Outcomes Overall conditions Risk Free Rate 5% Investment $100 Time horizon Driver forecasts Correlations Expected Growth Rate Standard 1 year NewBusiness Funding Customer retention Credit Quality New Business Market Portfolio 30% 20% -20% 60% 100% Current strategy and outlook Driver forecasts MCEP = $1.08 Zero or positive MCEP denotes an appropriate level of reward for time and risk Deviation Economic downturn, 1 MCEP = ($10.39) with no change in strategy Economic value is $90, a loss of NewBusiness Expected Standard Growth RateDeviation $10 on the initial investment Funding Funding Customer Need to change strategy Economic downturn with change in strategy Base Economic value of the investment is $100 Expected profit for payoff of $ Profit = $7.14 less risk charge Expected $1.06 less funding charge $5.00 New Business retention GrowthRate Credit Quality Credit Market Funding Customer retention retention Quality Portfolio New Business 100% 20% 0% -40% 30% Expected Standard Growth RateDeviation Funding 20% 100% 30% 30% 20% Credit Quality New Business Customer retention 0% 30% 100% -20% -20% 0.15 Funding Credit Quality -40% 30% -20% 100% 60% Customer retention Credit Quality Standard Deviation MCEP = ($3.87) Economic value is $96, an improvement of $6 compared to no change in strategy Need to change operations

24 Modelling the outcomes of different scenarios and outcomes on MCEP Key inputs and assumptions Scenarios Outcomes Overall conditions Driver forecasts Current strategy and outlook Base Economic value of the investment is $100 Expected profit for payoff of $ Risk Free Rate 5% Investment $100 Time horizon Profit = $7.14 Current 1 year strategy less risk charge Base $1.06 less funding charge $5.00 and outlook MCEP = $1.08 Zero or positive MCEP denotes an appropriate level of reward for time and risk Correlations Expected Growth Rate Standard Deviation NewBusiness Funding Customer retention Credit Quality New Business Funding Customer retention Credit Quality Market Portfolio New Business 100% 20% 0% -40% 30% Funding 20% 100% 30% 30% 20% Customer retention 0% 30% 100% -20% -20% Credit Quality -40% 30% -20% 100% 60% Market Portfolio 30% 20% -20% 60% 100% Economic downturn, with no change in strategy Economic value of the investment is $100 New Business Expected Standard Growth RateDeviation Expected profit for payoff of $ Funding Customer retention Credit Quality Economic downturn with change in strategy Expected Standard Growth RateDeviation New Business less funding charge $5.00 Funding Customer retention Credit Quality MCEP = $ Profit = $7.10 less risk charge $1.06 MCEP = ($10.39) Economic value is $90, a loss of $10 on the initial investment Need to change strategy MCEP = ($3.87) Economic value is $96, an improvement of $6 compared to no change in strategy Need to change operations

25 Modelling the outcomes of different scenarios and outcomes on MCEP Key inputs and assumptions Scenarios Outcomes Overall conditions Risk Free Rate 5% Investment $100 Time horizon 1 year Driver forecasts Expected Standard Growth Rate Deviation Funding stress NewBusiness Funding Restricted s Customer retention Credit Quality Poorer Correlations Credit Quality New Customer Credit Market Business Funding retention Quality Portfolio New Business 100% 20% 0% -40% 30% Funding 20% 100% 30% 30% 20% Customer retention 0% 30% 100% -20% -20% Credit Quality -40% 30% -20% 100% 60% Market Portfolio 30% 20% -20% 60% 100% Current strategy and outlook Base Economic downturn, with no change in strategy Economic value of of the investment is is $100 $100 Expected profit for payoff of $ Expected profit for payoff of $ Profit = $7.14 less risk charge $1.06 Expected less funding charge $ MCEP = $1.08 Zero or positive MCEP denotes an appropriate level of reward Standard for time and risk Deviation Economic downturn, 1 MCEP = ($10.39) New with Business no change in strategy Economic 0.25value is $90, a loss of Expected Standard Growth Rate Rate Deviation $10 on the initial investment New New Funding Business Funding Need to change strategy retention Customer retention Credit Credit Quality Credit Quality Economic downturn 2 MCEP = ($3.87) with change in strategy Economic value is $96, an Expected Standard MCEP = ($10.39) Growth Rate Deviation improvement of $6 compared to New Business no change in strategy Customer retention Credit Quality Growth Rate Economic value is $90, a loss of $10 on the Funding initial economic value 1 Need to change operations

26 Modelling the outcomes of different scenarios and outcomes on MCEP Key inputs and assumptions Scenarios Outcomes Overall conditions Risk Free Rate 5% Investment $100 Time horizon 1 year Driver forecasts Expected Standard Growth Rate Deviation Funding stress NewBusiness Funding Restricted s Customer retention Credit Quality Poorer Correlations Credit Quality New Customer Credit Market Business Funding retention Quality Portfolio New Business 100% 20% 0% -40% 30% Funding 20% 100% 30% 30% 20% Customer retention 0% 30% 100% -20% -20% Credit Quality -40% 30% -20% 100% 60% Market Portfolio 30% 20% -20% 60% 100% Current strategy and outlook Base Economic downturn with change in strategy Economic Economic value value of of the the investment investment is is $100 $100 Expected profit for payoff of $ Expected profit for payoff of $ MCEP = $1.08 Zero or positive MCEP denotes Profit = $7.14 Profit = $7.14 an appropriate level of reward less risk charge $1.06 less risk charge $1.06 for time and risk less less funding funding charge charge $5.00 $5.00 Expected Standard Growth Rate Deviation Economic downturn, 1 MCEP = ($10.39) with no change in strategy Economic value is $90, a loss of New Business Expected Standard Expected Standard Growth RateDeviation $10 on 0.25 the initial investment Growth RateDeviation New Business New Business Funding Funding Customer Need to change strategy Customer retention retention Credit Quality Credit Quality Customer retention Credit Economic Quality downturn with change in strategy MCEP = ($3.87) Economic value is $96, an Expected Expected Standard Standard Growth Growth Rate RateDeviation improvement of $6 compared to MCEP = ($3.87) New Business New Business no change in strategy Economic value is $96, an improvement of $6 compared to Funding Funding no change in strategy Customer Customer retention Need to change operations retention Credit Quality Restricted but fund on-balance sheet Segmentation to pursue higher quality customer Improved credit quality

27 MCEP is a major advance in risk-based performance measurement & valuation The benefits flow from a decision-support framework which is sound and useable: Additive Scaleable The risk charge, funding charge and MCEP are additive across business units (or other structural dimensions), resolving the confusion and contention around diversification benefit when making decisions about reward for risk. Adding a new business unit does not affect the MCEP or risk charge of existing business units MCEP is scalable - based on fundamental value drivers and the risks thereto, enabling integrated risk & reward decision-making at both group and business unit level. Integrated Rigorous An integrated model of all significant risks is employed whereas the traditional approach only contemplates interactions between risks as an afterthought. Regulator and shareholder perspectives are clearly separated, but with a common analysis of risk profile. is underpinned by a marginal utility pricing framework that produces market consistent risk adjusted values.

28 MCEP focuses Risk, Value and Strategy into one complete view of a business s performance MCEP provides an objective and straightforward approach to risk-adjusted profitability underpinned by breakthrough thinking, at its core: Provides management with unique insights on value creation activity and strategies Is granular enough to retain relevance at business unit level while providing desirable properties at the top-level of the Firm Takes a forward-looking view of the business and Is underpinned by a strong technical foundation. Most importantly the measurement is not an end in itself management of value and risk is the key 4 key attributes underpin the 3 views of MCEP: Integrated Portfolio Management Risk Appetite Risk Based Capital (Regulatory and Economic) Risk MCEP Risk Adjusted Profitability Value SVA Budgeting and Forecasting Additive can be added together across any dimension of a business. Scaleable can measure at any level across a business. Risk Limits Strategy Company TSR Integrated encapsulates all material effects of risk and capital of a business. Distribution model Product innovation Sales effectiveness Rigorous is underpinned by a marginal utility pricing framework that adapts to business structure.

29 Key contacts Conor O Dowd Partner conor.odowd@au.pwc.com Mark Young Director mark.a.young@au.pwc.com