Silver Wheaton. Q314 results preview. Operations. Valuation: 105% capital upside potential. Q314 results preview

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1 Silver Wheaton Q314 results preview Q314 results preview Metals & mining Notwithstanding estimated 3.6% and 2.5% declines in its estimated received silver and gold prices, respectively (see page 2), Edison is forecasting a 14.9% quarter-on-quarter rise in Silver Wheaton s EPS in Q314 (scheduled for release on 12 November), driven by a 22.8% recovery in gold production. Coupled with a 3.8% decline in silver production this will give rise to a 3.1% increase in silver equivalent production to 8,619koz. Year end Revenue (US$m) PBT* (US$m) EPS* (c) 12/ / /14e /15e Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments. DPS (c) P/E (x) Yield (%) 3 November 2014 Price C$20.00 Market cap C$7.2bn C$1.1173/US$ Net debt (US$m) at end June Shares in issue 358.0m Free float 100% Code SLW Primary exchange TSX Secondary exchange NYSE Share price performance Operations Ahead of the release of Silver Wheaton s (SLW) results, on 12 November, Goldcorp and Vale have already announced Q3 results, providing a degree of insight into operations at Penasquito and Salobo in particular. Silver production at Penasquito during the quarter amounted to 5.6Moz, while sales were 6.4Moz implying production and sales attributable to SLW of 1.4Moz and 1.6Moz respectively. Production decreased compared to Q2 as a result of an expected combination of lower grades and recoveries as stockpiled (as opposed to fresh) ore was processed. In the meantime, gold production at Salobo rose 23.0% cf Q214 as a result of the ongoing ramp up of Salobo II. Results in Q3 will also have benefited from the absence of maintenance at Sudbury as well as a one-off bounce in silver sales at Yauliyacu as unsold material in Q2 was shipped early in Q3. In the longer term, Goldcorp continues to assess the potential to produce a saleable copper concentrate at Penasquito (pre-feasibility study [PFS] due late 2014) and also the viability of leaching a pyrite concentrate from zinc flotation tailings (PFS due early 2015). Valuation: 105% capital upside potential FY14 forecasts remain ostensibly unchanged as a result of our metal price revisions for Q3 partly on account of an assumed over-sale of silver from Yauliyacu in Q3 in order to reverse the very significant sales shortfall in Q214 relative to production. Of more significance, however, is the fact that SLW s longerterm earnings trajectory remains intact and Edison forecasts an essentially unchanged value per share of US$36.63 (C$40.93) in FY19, implying a 21.3% internal rate of return to investors buying shares in Silver Wheaton at the current price (in US dollar terms). In the meantime, SLW remains the cheapest of its royalty/streaming peer group and also frequently cheaper than precious metal mining peers, despite being associated with materially less risk. Forecasts for Q4 and FY14 are based on precious metals prices of US$19.86/oz Ag and US$1,300/oz Au, cf spot prices of US$16.02/oz Ag and US$1,172/oz at the time of writing. In the event that current spot prices prevail for the remainder of the year, Edison s FY14 EPS forecast for SLW reduces by 8c, from 84c to 76c. % 1m 3m 12m Abs (3.7) (20.7) (13.0) Rel (local) 0.2 (16.0) (20.3) 52-week high/low C$29.89 C$20.00 Business description Silver Wheaton (SLW) is the world s pre-eminent pure precious metals streaming company with 24 precious metals streaming agreements relating to assets in Mexico, Peru, Canada, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Sweden, Greece, Portugal, the US and Guyana. Next events Q314 results 12 November 2014 Fourth quarterly dividend declared Analyst November 2014 Charles Gibson +44 (0) mining@edisongroup.com Edison profile page Silver Wheaton is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

2 Q314 preview Silver Wheaton s third quarter results will be announced before the Canadian market opens on Wednesday 12 November. There will be a subsequent call with analysts at 1100 Eastern Time (1600 GMT). Second quarter earnings were characterised by a 14% decline in the average realised silver equivalent price and a 13.8% decline in gold production (Q214 vs Q213). Output of gold, in particular, was affected by disruption to Salobo I as a result of its connection to Salobo II and maintenance (albeit scheduled) at Sudbury. In addition, there was an under-sale of 1.084Moz of silver relative to production (principally attributable to Yauliyacu), which resulted in an estimated negative variance of US$21.5m in revenue and a subsequent US$13.7m shortfall in earnings and a US$17.0m shortfall in cash flow for the quarter. This was partially mitigated by a 3,410oz over-sale of gold relative to production, which increased revenue by an estimated US$4.4m and earnings and cash flow by US$0.9m and US$3.1m, respectively. Production guidance was maintained at 36Moz AgE (cf Edison 35.4Moz, see page 5). Results in the third quarter will benefit from the absence of maintenance at Sudbury as well as the ramp-up at Salobo II (see below). Silver sales at Yauliyacu will also have experienced a one-off bounce as unsold material in Q2 (83% of the quarter s output, or 547koz Ag) was shipped early in Q3. In addition however, Silver Wheaton will also be experiencing the effects of silver s renewed decline from an average received price of US$19.81/oz in Q214 to US$16.02/oz at the time of writing (31 October). Since deliveries to Silver Wheaton from client companies are necessarily in the form of batch shipments, one effect of a decline in the price of silver is that it tends to receive a price discount to the average spot price, as silver is produced earlier in the month (when the price is higher), but then sold later in the month (when it is lower). Obviously, the effect is reversed during periods of rising silver prices. For the past quarter, however, Edison estimates that the silver price that Silver Wheaton will have received could be up to 3.3% lower than the average recorded spot price from July to September (inclusive). Exhibit 1: Q3 average price received, calculated by monthly average vs month end price US$/oz July August September Average Average monthly prices Silver price (US$/oz) Gold price (US$/oz) 1,311 1,296 1,239 1,282 Month end prices Silver price (US$/oz) Gold price (US$/oz) 1,285 1,286 1,217 1,263 Source: Edison Investment Research, Kitco Production and sales Ahead of the release of SLW s figures, Goldcorp and Vale have already announced Q3 results, providing a degree of insight into operations at Penasquito and Salobo in particular. Penasquito (Goldcorp) Silver production at Penasquito during the quarter amounted to 5,569,300oz, while sales were 6,439,300oz implying production and sales attributable to SLW of 1,392,325oz and 1,609,825oz respectively. Production decreased compared to the prior quarter as a result of a combination of lower grades and recoveries (both of which were expected) due to the supplementing of fresh ore feed with stockpiled ore feed. Construction on the Northern Well Field project, which is designed to supply the mine with water, is underway with completion expected in mid Until then, contingency plans for fresh water supply remain in place. Silver Wheaton 3 November

3 In the meantime, pre-feasibility studies for the concentrate enrichment process project and the pyrite leach project are advancing and are expected to be completed in late 2014 and early 2015, respectively. Both of these projects have the potential to significantly enhance the overall economics and mine life of Penasquito. The exploration programme at Penasquito continues to focus on defining the copper-gold sulphiderich skarn deposit located below and adjacent to the diatreme ore body. Current exploration activities include drilling to establish the vertical and horizontal size and extent of the skarn deposit. Salobo (Vale) Production of copper and nickel at Salobo reached new records in Q3, as a result of the ongoing ramp-up in production of Salobo II. Gold production amounted to 41,700oz (a rise of 23.0% compared to Q214), of which 25%, or 10,425oz, is attributable to SLW. All other things being equal, Edison estimates that Silver Wheaton will have produced 6,073koz Ag and 38,506oz Au during the quarter, such that silver equivalent production will have been 8,619koz (vs 8,361koz in Q214 and 8,988koz in Q114). On this basis, we have formulated the following profit and loss estimates for the quarter: Exhibit 2: Silver Wheaton FY14 forecasts, by quarter US$000s (unless otherwise stated) Q114 Q214 Q314e Q414e FY14e Sales 165, , , , ,753 Cost of sales Cost of sales, excluding depletion 37,088 35,368 40,295 44, ,888 Depletion 36,621 38,514 42,495 46, ,087 Total cost of sales 73,709 73,882 82,790 90, ,976 Earnings from operations 91,670 74,688 84,640 95, ,778 Expenses and other income General and administrative 10,110 10,375 10,375 10,375 41,235 Foreign exchange (gain)/loss (281) 147 (134) Net interest paid/(received) 1, ,331 1,331 4,361 Other income/(expense) ,843 11,847 12,046 11,706 11,706 47,305 Earnings before income taxes 79,823 62,642 72,934 84, ,473 Income tax expense/(recovery) 14 (850) (836) Marginal tax rate (%) 0.0 (1.4) Net earnings 79,809 63,492 72,934 84, ,309 Basic EPS (US$) Diluted EPS (US$) Source: Silver Wheaton, Edison Investment Research Investors are cautioned that the degree of variance between actual and forecast numbers is inherently greater for quarterly compared to annual estimates, as the former are more susceptible to larger percentage effects from short-term considerations. In addition, Q414 forecasts have been formulated on the basis of an average silver price of US$19.86/oz and an average gold price of US$1,300/oz cf spot prices of US$16.02/oz and US$1,172/oz, respectively. In the event that spot prices prevail for the remainder of the year, Edison estimates average quarterly prices of US$16.42/oz Ag and US$1,189/oz Au for Q4 (with a relatively small lag effect as the substantive falls will have been largely in the past). On the basis of these metal prices, Edison s forecasts for Silver Wheaton for Q4 and FY14 would then be as follows: Silver Wheaton 3 November

4 Exhibit 3: Silver Wheaton FY14 forecasts, by quarter, with current metal prices prevailing US$000s (unless otherwise indicated) Q114 Q214 Q314e Q414e FY14e Sales 165, , , , ,744 Cost of sales Cost of sales, excluding depletion 37,088 35,368 40,295 44, ,888 Depletion 36,621 38,514 42,495 46, ,087 Total cost of sales 73,709 73,882 82,790 90, ,976 Earnings from operations 91,670 74,688 84,640 68, ,768 Expenses and other income General and administrative 10,110 10,375 10,375 10,375 41,235 Foreign exchange (gain)/loss (281) 147 (134) Net interest paid/(received) 1, ,331 1,331 4,361 Other income/(expense) ,843 11,847 12,046 11,706 11,706 47,305 Earnings before income taxes 79,823 62,642 72,934 57, ,463 Income tax expense/(recovery) 14 (850) (836) Marginal tax rate (%) 0.0 (1.4) Net earnings 79,809 63,492 72,934 57, ,299 Basic EPS (US$) Diluted EPS (US$) Source: Silver Wheaton, Edison Investment Research Note that Edison s estimates compare to a consensus basic EPS estimate of 21c for Q314 and 83.1c for FY14 (source: Bloomberg, 29 October 2014). Near-term outlook First production from Constancia is expected imminently and first commercial production in H115. In the medium term, San Dimas (which has successfully completed its ramp up to 2,500tpd) has announced its intention to ramp up to 3,000tpd by Valuation and sensitivities Excluding FY04 (part year) and FY08 (during which there was an exceptional write-down), Silver Wheaton shares have historically traded on an average P/E multiple of 24.6x current year basic EPS (cf 21.3x currently at higher metal prices or 23.4x at lower ones). Exhibit 4: Silver Wheaton historic current year P/E multiples P/E multiple Source: Edison Investment Research Applying this multiple to our (below consensus) long-term EPS forecasts generates a potential share value of US$36.63, or C$40.93, in FY19. The table below shows Silver Wheaton s current rating on a number of valuation measures relative to both a sample of its peer royalty/streaming companies and a sample of gold miners. Silver Wheaton 3 November

5 Of note is the fact that Silver Wheaton trades on multiples that are, almost without exception, cheaper than those of its peers (with the exception of Franco-Nevada s FY14 yield and Sandstorm Gold s price to cash flow ratios). It also trades on multiples that are frequently cheaper than many of the gold miners themselves (especially yield and FY14 and FY15 P/E ratios), despite being associated with materially less risk. Exhibit 5: Silver Wheaton comparative valuation vs sample of operating and royalty/streaming companies P/E (x) Yield (%) P/CF FY14 FY15 FY16 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY14 FY15 FY16 Royalty companies Franco-Nevada Royal Gold Sandstorm Gold Average Operators Barrick Newmont Goldcorp Newcrest Kinross Agnico-Eagle Eldorado Yamana Average Silver Wheaton Source: Bloomberg, Edison Investment Research. Note: Priced on 28 October. Within the context of this analysis, investors should note that Edison s FY15 and FY16 forecasts are based on silver and gold prices of US$21.81/oz and US$21.12/oz and US$1,381/oz and US$1,334/oz, respectively. In the event that precious metals prices remain at current levels until 31 December 2016, Edison forecasts that SLW will record basic EPS of 62c in FY15 and 64c in FY16, increasing its P/E multiples to 31.6x and 30.8x, respectively. These compare to consensus basic EPS estimates of 92.8c and 107.6c for FY15 and FY16 (source: Bloomberg, 29 October 2014), respectively. Note also that there has been a general de-rating of both royalty companies and operators since Edison s August note with the exception of Newmont s, Kinross s and Eldorado s yields in FY15 and FY16 and Newmont s and Kinross s P/E ratios in FY16. Project sensitivities Mineral Park On 1 August 2014, Mercator Minerals announced that its proposed business combination with Intergeo MMC Ltd had been terminated. As a result, Mercator indicated that Mineral Park (an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary) had defaulted on certain of its obligations to its senior lenders etc. Under its streaming agreement, Silver Wheaton is entitled to 100% of the silver produced at the Mineral Park mine. Until 18 August, Mineral Park s lenders had agreed to forbear from exercising the various rights and remedies accorded to them under their agreements with Mineral Park. However, on 18 August Mercator announced that talks with lenders had been unsuccessful and that the latter had consequently declined to extend their forbearance any longer. Mercator stated that it was considering its options, which included (but were not limited to) selling the company or filing for creditor protection. Since then (on 26 August), Mercator announced that agreement could not be reached with the Mineral Park lenders and that consequently it had filed a Notice of Intention to make a proposal (NOI) under the Canadian Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (BIA). An NOI is the first stage of a restructuring process under the BIA, which permits the company to pursue a restructuring of its Silver Wheaton 3 November

6 financial affairs, through a formal proposal. The NOI provides an opportunity for the company to avoid bankruptcy and may allow creditors to receive some form of compensation for amounts owing to them. From the filing of the NOI, the company had up to an initial 30 days of protection from its creditors to enable it to pursue the option of a proposal. Pursuant to the NOI, Deloitte Restructuring was appointed as the trustee in the company s proposal proceedings to monitor and assist the company in its restructuring efforts. In addition, each of Mercator s direct and indirect wholly owned subsidiaries Mercator Mineral Park Holdings Ltd, Lodestrike Resources Ltd, Mineral Park Inc (MPI) and Bluefish Energy Corporation also all filed a Chapter 11 bankruptcy petition in the US. As part of that process, Mineral Park Inc confirmed that it would engage an investment bank to seek a standalone sale of MPI. In September, seven directors and four officers of Mercator Minerals resigned their positions. Edison estimates that the value of Mineral Park over the remaining life of its operations was no more than US$0.21 per share to Silver Wheaton. As a result of its exclusion however, Edison estimates FY14 AgE production for Silver Wheaton will be 35.4Moz (vs official guidance of 36Moz). Pascua-Lama In addition to precious metals prices, SLW is also significantly sensitive to the resumption of development of the Pascua-Lama project on the Chile-Argentina border by Barrick. Pascua-Lama is currently on care and maintenance, as a result of which Silver Wheaton s streaming agreement with Barrick is subject to the satisfaction of a completion test on or before 31 December If the requirements of the completion test are not satisfied by the amended completion date, the agreement may be terminated by Silver Wheaton, in which case it will be entitled to the return of the upfront cash consideration of US$625m less a credit for any silver delivered up to that date. In the event of a decision to resume development in FY17, however, we estimate that Silver Wheaton will benefit from an average additional 10.1Moz Ag in the first three years of operations and 5.2Moz over the project s estimated 26-year life. Assuming the project begins production as per its original plan in FY18, we forecast that Silver Wheaton s attributable production from existing contracts will peak at 54.6Moz AgE in FY20 instead of 43.7Moz in FY19. It also adds US$1.61/share to our valuation (discounted to January 2015). Other We estimate Toroparu (over which there exists similar optionality) to be worth US$0.10/share. Relative performance With the exception of a short period between July and October 2008 (corresponding to the onset of the global financial crisis), Silver Wheaton has proved a consistently reliable investment, having outperformed the silver price by 118.9% and the gold price by 80.7% in US dollar terms in the 10 years since 1 October 2004: Silver Wheaton 3 November

7 Exhibit 6: Silver Wheaton share price vs silver and gold 3.0 Unitised performance /10/ /12/ /02/ /04/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /12/ /02/2014 Gold SLW Silver Source: Datastream, Edison Investment Research. Note: Underlying data in US dollars and US$/oz. Silver Wheaton 3 November

8 Exhibit 7: Financial summary US$000s e 2015e 2016e Year end December IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS PROFIT & LOSS Revenue 849, , , , ,805 Cost of Sales (117,489) (139,352) (156,888) (205,231) (221,332) Gross Profit 732, , , , ,473 EBITDA 701, , , , ,238 Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) 600, , , , ,713 Intangible Amortisation Exceptionals Other 788 (11,202) (1,709) 0 0 Operating Profit 600, , , , ,713 Net Interest 0 (6,083) (4,361) (4,838) (2,913) Profit Before Tax (norm) 600, , , , ,800 Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) 600, , , , ,800 Tax (14,755) 5, Profit After Tax (norm) 586, , , , ,801 Profit After Tax (FRS 3) 586, , , , ,800 Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) EPS - normalised (c) EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c) EPS - (IFRS) (c) Dividend per share (c) Gross Margin (%) EBITDA Margin (%) Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) BALANCE SHEET Fixed Assets 2,403,958 4,288,557 4,413,901 4,390,218 4,264,693 Intangible Assets 2,281,234 4,242,086 4,367,430 4,343,747 4,218,222 Tangible Assets 1,347 5,670 5,670 5,670 5,670 Investments 121,377 40,801 40,801 40,801 40,801 Current Assets 785, , , , ,498 Stocks ,031 1,041 Debtors 6,197 4,619 4,574 6,057 6,115 Cash 778,216 95, , , ,343 Other Current Liabilities (49,458) (21,134) (26,078) (33,892) (36,495) Creditors (20,898) (21,134) (26,078) (33,892) (36,495) Short term borrowings (28,560) Long Term Liabilities (32,805) (1,002,164) (1,003,000) (1,003,000) (1,003,000) Long term borrowings (21,500) (998,136) (998,136) (998,136) (998,136) Other long term liabilities (11,305) (4,028) (4,864) (4,864) (4,864) Net Assets 3,107,074 3,366,546 3,568,363 3,864,868 4,150,696 CASH FLOW Operating Cash Flow 720, , , , ,773 Net Interest 0 (6,083) (4,361) (4,838) (2,913) Tax (725) (154) 1, Capex (641,976) (2,050,681) (330,082) (185,000) (90,000) Acquisitions/disposals Financing 12,919 58,004 3, Dividends (123,852) (160,013) (102,188) (127,817) (125,972) Net Cash Flow (33,425) (1,618,330) 82, , ,888 Opening net debt/(cash) (761,581) (728,156) 902, , ,681 HP finance leases initiated Other 0 (12,139) Closing net debt/(cash) (728,156) 902, , ,681 79,793 Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research Silver Wheaton 3 November

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