THIRD QUARTER 2018 REVIEW & INVESTOR OVERVIEW NOVEMBER 8, 2018

Transcription

1 THIRD QUARTER 2018 REVIEW & INVESTOR OVERVIEW NOVEMBER 8, 2018

2 REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Statements contained in this press release that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements relate to current expectations regarding our future financial condition, performance and results of operations, planned capital expenditures, long-term objectives of management, supply and demand, pricing trends and market forces, and integration plans and expected benefits of transactions and are often identified by the use of words and phrases such as "anticipate," "believe," "continue," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "plan," "predict," "project," "should," "will," "would," "is likely to," "is expected to" or "will continue," or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology. All forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from those projected. Other factors that may cause actual results to differ from the forward-looking statements contained in this release and that may affect the company's prospects in general include, but are not limited to, (a) general economic and business conditions and the competitive conditions in the baked foods industry, including promotional and price competition, (b) changes in consumer demand for our products, including changes in consumer behavior, trends and preferences, including health and whole grain trends, and the movement toward more inexpensive store-branded products, (c) the success of productivity improvements and new product introductions, (d) a significant reduction in business with any of our major customers including a reduction from adverse developments in any of our customer's business, including as a result of product recalls or safety concerns related to our products, (e) fluctuations in commodity pricing, (f) energy and raw material costs and availability and hedging and counterparty risk, (g) our ability to fully integrate recent acquisitions into our business, (h) our ability to achieve cash flow from capital expenditures and acquisitions and the availability of new acquisitions that build shareholder value, (i) our ability to successfully implement our business strategies, including those strategies the company has initiated under Project Centennial, which may involve, among other things, the integration of recent acquisitions or the acquisition or disposition of assets at presently targeted values, the deployment of new systems and technology and an enhanced organizational structure, (j) consolidation within the baking industry and related industries, (k) disruptions in our direct-store delivery system, including litigation or an adverse ruling from a court or regulatory or government body that could affect the independent contractor classification of our independent distributors, (l) increasing legal complexity and legal proceedings that we are or may become subject to, (m) product recalls or safety concerns related to our products, and (n) the failure of our information technology systems to perform adequately, including any interruptions, intrusions or security breaches of such systems. The foregoing list of important factors does not include all such factors, nor necessarily present them in order of importance. In addition, you should consult other public disclosures made by the company, including the risk factors included in our most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") and disclosures made in other filings with the SEC and company press releases, for other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected by the company. We caution you not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, as they speak only as of the date made and are inherently uncertain. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update such statements, except as required by law. 2

3 THIRD QUARTER 2018 REVIEW

4 HIGHLIGHTS: Announced acquisition of Canyon Bakehouse, a leading producer of gluten-free bakery products Achieved record market share ninth straight quarter Top 3 brands Nature s Own, Dave s Killer Bread, Wonder gained share Began operation of a high-speed bun line in Pennsylvania, announced closure of an inefficient bakery in Vermont Despite progress on strategic priorities, challenging environment impacted third quarter financial results and outlook 4

5 CANYON BAKEHOUSE ACQUISITION BY THE NUMBERS 206 Employees 165,625 sq. ft. Recently constructed bakery with two production lines ~$ 70M - $80M Expected FY2019 sales ~ 45% Generated CAGR since % CAGR per year of gluten-free bread market since 2015, outperforming broader retail baked goods market 3 An Innovative Leader in Growing Gluten-Free Category 21 gluten-free breads, buns, bagels, English muffins, and specialty items Top gluten-free loaf brand in natural and specialty food stores 1 #2 brand in overall gluten-free loaf category 2 Fastest-growing gluten-free bread loaf brand in the U.S. 2 Provides Entrance to New Category, Advances Strategic Plans Creates value with addition of fast-growing brand in growing category Leverages Flowers powerful distribution network and retail partnerships to bring Canyon Bakehouse products to more consumers across the country Transaction Details $205M, or $175M net future tax benefits of ~$30M Funded with cash on-hand and existing credit facilities Expected to be accretive to fiscal 2020 earnings Expected to close later in 4Q 2018, subject to regulatory approval and customary closing conditions (1) SPINS Natural and Specialty Outlet Gluten Free Loaf Bread for 52 Weeks Ending (2) IRI Custom Database MultiOutlet + SPINS Natural and Specialty Gluten Free Loaf Bread for 12 Weeks Ending (3) IRI Custom Database MultiOutlet Gluten Free Fresh Packaged Bread for Fiscal Year 2015 vs 52 Week Ending and SPINS Database for Fiscal Year 2015 vs 52 Week Ending

6 Q FINANCIAL REVIEW NET SALES $923.4M (1.0)% Price/Mix 2.5%; Volume (3.5)% Volume declines from cycling prior-year hurricane activity, lower cake and foodservice; partially offset by DKB growth, new products, expansion markets, and pricing CASH FLOWS Cash from Ops = $83.4 million Capex = $25.5 million Dividends = $38.0 million ADJ. EBITDA 1 $97.5M Decreased 13.2% 10.6% of sales, down 140bps Margin impacted by lower volumes and elevated input and transportation costs DILUTED EPS $0.19 ADJ. DILUTED EPS 2 $0.23 Reduced adj. EBITDA offset by lower tax rate and lower net interest expense (1) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization, adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-gaap reconciliations at the end of this slide presentation. (2) Adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-gaap reconciliations at the end of this slide presentation. 6

7 REVISED FY 2018 OUTLOOK (AS OF NOVEMBER 7, 2018) REVENUE CHG ADJ EPS 1 Flat to +1.6% GAAP EPS $0.76 to $0.81 $0.90 to $0.95 OTHER Depreciation & Amortization $145 to $150 million Net interest expense $7 to $8 million Effective tax rate 25.0% to 26.0% Diluted shares outstanding ~211.0 million Capital expenditures $95 to $105 million (1) Adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-gaap reconciliations at the end of this slide presentation. 7

8 OBJECTIVES FOR 2019 & BEYOND Deliver organic sales growth above categories Pursue accretive M&A opportunities Target long-term sales growth of 3% to 4% Execute on initiatives to realize 250bps of EBITDA margin expansion by fiscal 2021 Achieve long-term diluted EPS CAGR of 8%-10% Dividend yield of 2%-3% Taking Decisive Action to Reduce Costs, Drive Growth, and Create Shareholder Value 8

9 KEY TAKEAWAYS Strong brands and a team committed to transforming the company Clear objectives to grow sales, expand margins, and deliver shareholder value Executing today with urgency on initiatives to reinvigorate the core, reduce costs to generate fuel for growth, and improve financial performance Positioning Flowers to deliver sustainable long-term value 9

10 INVESTOR OVERVIEW

11 LEADING FRESH BAKERY BRANDS DRIVE OUR BUSINESS Sales Overview TTM* Sales $3.9 billion Store branded retail 15% Non-retail & other 24% Branded retail 59% Branded breads 49% Brand Portfolio Highlights #1 loaf bread brand #1 organic bread brand 98% consumer awareness Branded snack cakes 12% Iconic snack cakes since 1914 * 52 weeks ended Q Source: SDW DSD + WD 52 Weeks Ending October 6,

12 OPERATIONS OVERVIEW 47 Operating Bakeries Direct-store-distribution access to 85% Warehouse distribution of the U.S. population NATIONWIDE Channels served Grocery / Mass Natural & Organic Club & Dollar, C-store E-commerce Foodservice & Vending 9,800 employees 5,500 independent distributors Information as of year-end fiscal

13 FLOWERS LONG-TERM OPPORTUNITY 1. Well-positioned in a huge category that is relevant to consumers and profitable for retailers 2. Flowers has built strong competitive advantages and has a strong platform for continued growth 3. Recognize that to drive shareholder value, Flowers must adapt to an ever-changing marketplace Clear Strategic Priorities to Create Shareholder Value Well-positioned to Deliver Top-tier Shareholder Returns 13

14 COMPETITIVE POSITION #2 Baker and Growing Share FRESH PACKAGED BREADS $ SHARE FLOWERS-FRESH PACKAGED BREADS STORE BRAND, 23.4 FLOWERS, INDEPENDENT BAKERS, 24.2 BBU, PEPPERIDGE FARM, 6.0 Q Q Q Q Q IRI Flowers custom data base Total US Multi Outlet + Convenience 12 weeks ending October 7,

15 BROAD CAPABILITIES Strong DSD Network 39 bakeries serving approximately 5,500 independent distributor partners (IDPs) Access to approximately 85% of the U.S. population National Warehouse Platform Important future resource as business grows to include new sales channels and product types Ability to serve the market across fresh, frozen and refrigerated products and make products available in multiple channels 85% of Flowers sales DSD Footprint Bakeries Increasing Investments in Innovation, Marketing and Bakeries Can Further Differentiate Flowers Products and Strengthen Relationships With IDPs, Consumers, and Customers Information as of year-end fiscal

16 MARKET SHARE OPPORTUNITIES BEYOND LOAF BREADS #1 in Traditional Loaf Brand extensions and M&A in adjacent segments $4.0 $3.1 BILLIONS $1.6 $2.0 $1.9 $0.3 $0.3 $0.1 TRADITIONAL LOAF SPECIALTY/PREMIUM LOAF SANDWICH BUNS/ROLLS BREAKFAST/DINNER/OTHER TOTAL BRANDED FLOWERS IRI Flowers custom data base Total US Multi Outlet + Convenience 52 weeks ending October 7,

17 UNDERDEVELOPED GEOGRAPHIES ALSO A STRATEGIC FOCUS Bolt-on acquisitions are a key part of our growth strategy California & West Great Lakes & Plains Northeast Mid South, South Central & Southeast FLOWERS BBU STORE BRAND OTHER BRAND IRI Flowers custom data base 12 weeks ending October 7,

18 FRESH BAKERY OVERVIEW Large and stable market $32 Billion Fresh Bakery Market US Fresh Bakery - Retail Outlets (in billions) $7.6B Foodservice (2) $22.5 $23.2 $23.8 $24.0 $24.1 $24.1B Retail Breads, Snack Cakes, and Tortillas (1) 13FY 14FY 15FY 16FY 17FY (1) Data for Retail Outlets sourced from IRI. FY (2) Data for Foodservice sourced from Techonomic

19 CATEGORY REVIEW FRESH PACKAGED BREADS Dollar % Sales Change Unit % Sales Change 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 1.6% 1.3% 0.2% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.5% -1.0% -1.4% -1.2% -1.2% -1.0% -1.1% -1.3% -1.3% -1.1% -0.9% -0.9% -1.2% -3.4% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: IRI Custom Database Total US Multi Outlet + Convenience. 19

20 CATEGORY REVIEW TOTAL CATEGORY: COMMERCIAL CAKE Dollar % Sales Change Unit % Sales Change 6.6% 7.0% 5.6% 5.2% 3.6% 3.6% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% -0.3% -0.5% 0.0% -1.0% -1.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.2% -0.3% -1.5% -0.7% -1.9% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: IRI Custom Database Total US Multi Outlet + Convenience. 20

21 FLOWERS MARKET SHARE FLO Bread $ Share FLO Cake $ Share Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: IRI Custom Database Total US Multi Outlet + Convenience. 21

22 ORGANICS GENERATING GROWTH TOTAL ORGANIC FRESH PACKAGED BREADS $584.6 $488.7 $356.0 $274.1 $221.1 $179.8 FLO DOLLAR SHARE OF TOTAL ORGANICS FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 52 WE 10/07/18 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 52 WE 10/07/18 DKB IS DRIVING FLOWERS MARKET SHARE GAINS IN THE KEY GROWTH SEGMENT OF THE CATEGORY Source: IRI Custom Database Total US Multi Outlet + Convenience. 22

23 POSITIVE UNDERLYING CONSUMER TRENDS Strong demand for differentiated products 26.8 Store Brand Fresh Packaged Breads Share Organic Fresh Packaged Bread Market Flowers organic bread share: 60.1 $488.7 $ $179.8 $221.1 $274.1 $ FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 52 WE 10/07/18 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 52 WE 10/07/18 Source: IRI Custom Database Total US Multi Outlet + Convenience. 23

24 PROJECT CENTENNIAL Strategic Priorities: IMPROVE PROFITABILITY Generate Fuel for Growth Develop Leading Capabilities Promote Accountability DRIVE GROWTH Reinvigorate the Core Capitalize on Adjacencies GROW SALES EXPAND MARGINS DELIVER SHAREHOLDER VALUE Focused on Improving Margins and Profitably Growing the Top-line 24

25 PROJECT CENTENNIAL VALUE CREATION PLAN Reduce costs to fuel growth Invest in capabilities Reinvigorate core business Capitalize on product adjacencies Taking Decisive Action and Working With Urgency to Drive Improvements 25

26 KEY SAVINGS INITIATIVES UNDERWAY Operate with Efficiency Centralize Where Appropriate Leverage Scale Effectively Purchased Goods & Services Initiatives Increased cost discipline Continuous improvement and network optimization programs Centralized purchasing to ensure best value Policy and specifications Supply Chain Optimization Initiatives to drive ongoing productivity gains Reduce operational complexity Capitalize on scale 26

27 ENHANCED ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE Elevating the Capabilities of Our Team Align company to overall strategy o Propel growth of the core business, focusing on brand investment, local relationships and reliance on fresh products delivered via DSD Drive accountability and responsibility Increase standardization and centralization Voluntary Separation Incentive Program enabled meaningful headcount reduction With a Less Complex and More Focused Organizational Structure, Flowers Intends to Lower Costs and Grow a Business that is Now Operating on a National Level 27

28 NEW STRUCTURE SUMMARY Transition Underway to Revised Organizational Structure Two BUs: Fresh Packaged Bread and Snacking/Specialty o o Fresh Packaged Bread: Optimize profitability and support growth of core bread products Snacking/Specialty: Drive growth in products outside the retail bread aisle Supported by distinct Sales, Marketing, Supply Chain and Administrative/Strategic functions Transition to the new structure with full implementation expected to be completed at the beginning of fiscal 2019, will use DSD and Warehouse Delivery financial reporting segments until all systems fully transitioned Chief Operating Officer recently appointed to drive cross-functional alignment and accountability New Company Structure Designed to Enhance Individual Accountability and Operational Efficiency 28

29 FY 2017 & 2018 SAVINGS TARGETS & CONSIDERATIONS Gross Savings from PG&S, SCO, Organization Initiatives Offsets to 2018 Gross Savings Estimates: $32M $38-48M Anticipating 2018 input cost inflation of ~$40 million Incremental brand investments Inflationary pressures in commodities, labor, and freight costs 17FY-Act 18FY-Est 29

30 PROJECT CENTENNIAL ROADMAP FY FUND & DESIGN THE FUTURE FY 2019 & Beyond TRANSFORM TO THE FUTURE Focus Generate savings Design future organization Invest in growth Leverage capabilities Targets Sales growth: flat to +1.6% EBITDA margins: ~12%+ Sales growth: 3% to 4% EBITDA margins: ~13% to 14% Targeting at least 250bps net overall EBITDA margin improvement by FY21 30

31 REINVIGORATE CORE BUSINESS Invest In Brands Align brands to consumers ROI-focused investments in brand growth and innovation Improve Execution Streamline assortment - Fewer SKUs o Reduced complexity Enable Partners o Improve business intelligence o PartnerUp program helps independent distributor partners grow their businesses Investing in Brands and Improving Execution to Drive Growth 31

32 BRAND INVESTMENT FRAMEWORK Innovation and marketing investments to drive growth of differentiated brands High-Potential Brands Focus on innovation and growth Strong consumer appeal Differentiated products Established Brands Focus on margin and cash flow Provide scale Strengthen competitive position in the category Strong market potential High ROI from innovation and marketing investments Generating Strong Returns Through Brand Investment 32

33 OPTIMIZE ASSORTMENT Sales by SKU Better focus marketing investments 20% of SKUs driving 80%+ of sales Longer run times, improved efficiencies Enhanced margins Reducing the complexity of the assortment Closed our Winston-Salem snack cake facility in 17Q4 Closing our Brattleboro bakery in 18Q4 SKUs Focusing on Higher-margin, Faster-turning Items 33

34 DSD ENABLEMENT Strengthening Our Business Relationship with IDPs Through New PartnerUp Program Voluntary Feedback Program Weekly discussions of best practices and opportunities for business growth Increasing Ordering Efficiency & Sales Potential Providing IDPs with better information and tools to improve order quality and identify sales opportunities 34

35 CAPITALIZE ON PRODUCT ADJACENCIES Expanding Position In High-Growth Categories BUILD ON LEADING FOODSERVICE POSITION Expanding share of growing specialty products o Moving beyond loaf and bun o Breakfast items and dinner rolls are opportunities to increase share GROW IN-STORE DELI/BAKERY Grow specialty brands on the store perimeter GROW IN BAKED SNACKS Evolve cake strategy to leverage dual-brand capabilities Further diversify into snacking occasions Diversify business into growing segments of the bakery category 35

36 FINANCIAL TRENDS & COST COMPONENTS Operating Results Components of Adj EBITDA** % of 17FY Sales Billions Sales Adj EBITDA Mgn** 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% EBITDA % of Sales SG&A and Other 14.6% Shipping/ Distribution 22.7% Adj. EBITDA ** 11.5% Ing & Pkg 28.7% Conversion *** 22.5% - 0.0% * 53-week year; ** Adjusted for items affecting comparability. See non-gaap reconciliations at the end of the slide presentation. *** Includes direct labor and indirect manufacturing expenses. 36

37 CONSISTENT CASH FLOW Cash Flows, millions Operating Cash Flow Capital Expenditures $270 $315 $336 $357 $297 $217 $67 $99 $84 $91 $102 $75 12FY 13FY 14FY* 15FY 16FY 17FY Consistent Cash Flow Supports Balanced Capital Allocation Strategy *53-week year 37

38 BALANCED CAPITAL ALLOCATION Capital Allocation Dividends Share Repurchases Cash for Acquisitions $318 $416 $395 Capital Allocation Principles: Support core business growth Strong dividend Investment grade credit rating $19 $9 $39 $7 $126 $3 $86 $93 $102 $120 $131 $141 Accretive acquisitions Opportunistic share repurchases 12FY 13FY 14FY* 15FY 16FY 17FY (Amounts in millions) Focused On Consistent, Prudent Capital Allocation *53-week year 38

39 CONSERVATIVE FINANCIAL POSITION Total Debt & Capital Leases Aggregate Maturities, at 18Q2 Total Debt & Capital Leases $919 $759 $1,005 $958 $832 $825 Since end of fiscal 2015: Reduced Total Debt & Capital Lease Obligations by $180M At 18Q3: Leverage ratio of 1.8X, ~$686M available liquidity on undrawn borrowing arrangements $402 $406 $2 $11 $7 $4 13FY 14FY 15FY 16FY 17FY 18Q3 18FY 19FY 20FY 21FY 22FY 23FY+ (Amounts in millions) Maintaining a Conservative Financial Profile 39

40 REGARDING NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES The company prepares its consolidated financial statements in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). However, from time to time, the company may present in its public statements, press releases and SEC filings, non-gaap financial measures such as, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBIT, EBITDA margin, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, adjusted operating income, adjusted operating income by segment, adjusted EBIT by segment, adjusted EPS, adjusted income tax expense, adjusted selling, distribution and administrative expenses (SD&A), gross margin excluding depreciation and amortization and the ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA. The reconciliations attached provide reconciliations of the non-gaap measures used in this presentation or release to the most comparable GAAP financial measure. The company s definitions of these non-gaap measures may differ from similarly titled measures used by others. These non-gaap measures should be considered supplemental to, and not a substitute for, financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP. The company defines EBITDA as earnings from continuing operations before interest, income taxes, depreciation, amortization and income attributable to non-controlling interest. The company believes that EBITDA is a useful tool for managing the operations of its business and is an indicator of the company's ability to incur and service indebtedness and generate free cash flow. EBITDA is used as the primary performance measure in the company's 2014 Omnibus Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan. Furthermore, pursuant to the terms of our credit facility, EBITDA is used to determine the company's compliance with certain financial covenants. The company also believes that EBITDA measures are commonly reported and widely used by investors and other interested parties as measures of a company's operating performance and debt servicing ability because EBITDA measures assist in comparing performance on a consistent basis without regard to depreciation or amortization, which can vary significantly depending upon accounting methods and non-operating factors (such as historical cost). EBITDA is also a widely-accepted financial indicator of a company's ability to incur and service indebtedness. EBITDA should not be considered an alternative to (a) income from operations or net income (loss) as a measure of operating performance; (b) cash flows provided by operating, investing and financing activities (as determined in accordance with GAAP) as a measure of the company's ability to meet its cash needs; or (c) any other indicator of performance or liquidity that has been determined in accordance with GAAP. The company defines adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBIT, EBITDA margin, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, adjusted operating income, adjusted operating income by segment, adjusted EBIT by segment, adjusted EPS, adjusted income tax expense, adjusted selling, distribution and administrative expenses (SD&A), respectively, excluding the impact of asset impairment charges, Project Centennial consulting costs, lease terminations and legal settlements, acquisition-related costs, and pension plan settlements. Adjusted income tax expense also excludes the impact of tax reform. The company believes that these measures, when considered together with its GAAP financial results, provides management and investors with a more complete understanding of its business operating results, including underlying trends, by excluding the effects of certain charges. Net debt to EBITDA is used as a measure of financial leverage employed by the company. Gross margin excluding depreciation and amortization is used as a performance measure to provide additional transparent information regarding our results of operations on a consolidated and segment basis. Changes in depreciation and amortization are separately discussed and include depreciation and amortization for materials, supplies, labor and other production costs and operating activities. Presentation of gross margin includes depreciation and amortization in the materials, supplies, labor and other production costs according to GAAP. Our method of presenting gross margin excludes the depreciation and amortization components, as discussed above. The reconciliations attached provide reconciliations of the non-gaap measures used in this presentation or release to the most comparable GAAP financial measure. 40

41 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA (000's omitted) 17FY 16FY 15FY 14FY 13FY 12FY 11FY 10FY 09FY 08FY 07FY 06FY 05FY 04FY Net Income attributable to Flowers Foods, Inc. $ 150,120 $ 163,776 $ 189,191 $ 175,739 $ 230,894 $ 136,121 $ 123,428 $ 137,047 $ 130,297 $ 119,233 $ 94,615 $ 81,043 $ 61,231 $ 50,774 (Income)/loss from discontinued operations, net of tax (6,731) 1,627 3,486 Cumulative effect of a change in accounting principle Net income attributable to noncontrolling interest ,415 3,074 3,500 3,255 2,904 1,769 Income tax expense (benefit) (827) 85, ,840 92,315 91,479 72,651 68,538 73,333 74,047 67,744 54,970 45,304 39,861 35,071 Interest income, net 13,619 14,353 4,848 7,341 12,860 9,739 (2,940) (4,518) (1,426) (7,349) (8,404) (4,946) (6,337) (8,826) Depreciation and amortization 146, , , , , ,690 94,638 85,118 80,928 73,312 66,094 64,250 59,344 56,702 EBITDA from Continuing Operations 309, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,976 Asset impairment and facility closure costs/divestiture - 24,877 4,507 9, , Lease termination depreciation impact (1,844) Multi-employer pension plan withdrawal costs 18, Pension plan settlement loss 4,649 6,646-15, Legal settlement 6,543 10, Project Centennial consulting costs 37,306 6, Restructuring and related impairment charges 104, Acquisition-related costs - - 6,187-17,776 9,560 6, Divestiture/Bargain purchase gain (28,875) (50,071) Adjusted EBITDA $ 449,808 $ 453,106 $ 440,748 $ 429,044 $ 421,429 $ 330,761 $ 294,318 $ 290,980 $ 287,261 $ 256,014 $ 210,775 $ 182,743 $ 158,630 $ 138,976 Net Sales $ 3,920,733 $ 3,926,885 $ 3,778,505 $ 3,748,973 $ 3,732,616 $ 3,031,124 $ 2,759,367 $ 2,560,787 $ 2,600,849 $ 2,414,892 $ 2,036,674 $ 1,888,654 $ 1,715,869 $ 1,551,308 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 11.5% 11.5% 11.7% 11.4% 11.3% 10.9% 10.7% 11.4% 11.0% 10.6% 10.3% 9.7% 9.2% 9.0% 41

42 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Reconciliation of Earnings per Share For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended October 6, 2018 October 7, 2017 Net income (loss) per diluted common share $ 0.19 $ (0.16) Loss (recovery) on inferior ingredients (0.01) - Restructuring and related impairment charges NM 0.29 Project Centennial consulting costs NM 0.02 Legal settlements and lease terminations Pension plan settlement loss NM 0.01 Adjusted net income per diluted common share $ 0.23 $ 0.23 NM - not meaningful. Certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures 42

43 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted) Reconciliation of Gross Margin For the 12 Week Period Ended For the 12 Week Period Ended October 6, 2018 October 7, 2017 Sales $ 923,449 $ 932,822 Materials, supplies, labor and other production costs (exclusive 485, ,264 Gross Margin excluding depreciation and amortization 437, ,558 Less depreciation and amortization for production activities 18,610 19,553 Gross Margin $ 419,159 $ 437,005 Depreciation and amortization for production activities $ 18,610 $ 19,553 Depreciation and amortization for selling, distribution and 14,052 13,419 Total depreciation and amortization $ 32,662 $ 32,972 43

44 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted) Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) to Adjusted EBIT and Adjusted EBITDA For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended October 6, 2018 October 7, 2017 Net income (loss) $ 39,630 $ (33,571) Income tax expense (benefit) 11,496 (22,925) Interest expense, net 1,565 2,730 Other pension cost (benefit) (171) (1,321) Pension plan settlement loss 930 3,030 Earnings before interest and income taxes 53,450 (52,057) Loss (recovery) on inferior ingredients (1,891) - Restructuring charges ,549 Project Centennial consulting costs 729 7,050 Legal settlements and lease terminations 11,921 4,253 Multi-employer pension plan withdrawal costs - 18,268 Adjusted EBIT 64,706 78,063 Other pension cost (benefit) 171 1,321 Depreciation and amortization 32,662 32,972 Adjusted EBITDA $ 97,539 $ 112,356 Sales $ 923,449 $ 932,822 Adjusted EBITDA margin 10.6% 12.0% 44

45 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted) Reconciliation of Income Tax Expense (Benefit) to Adjusted Income Tax Expense For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended October 6, 2018 October 7, 2017 Income tax expense (benefit) $ 11,496 $ (22,925) Tax impact of: Loss (recovery) on inferior ingredients (477) - Restructuring charges ,711 Project Centennial consulting costs 184 2,714 Legal settlements and lease terminations 3,010 1,638 Pension plan settlement loss 235 1,167 Multi-employer pension plan withdrawal costs - 7,033 Adjusted income tax expense $ 14,573 $ 28,338 45

46 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted) Reconciliation of EBIT to Adjusted EBIT and Adjusted EBITDA - DSD For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended October 6, 2018 October 7, 2017 Earnings (loss) before interest and income taxes $ 58,819 $ (20,338) Loss (recovery) on inferior ingredients (2,986) - Restructuring charges ,625 Legal settlements and lease terminations 10,827 4,253 Multi-employer pension plan withdrawal costs - 18,268 Adjusted EBIT 66,949 78,808 Depreciation and amortization 27,676 28,286 Other pension cost (benefit) Adjusted EBITDA $ 94,722 $ 107,193 Sales $ 780,253 $ 787,255 Adjusted EBITDA margin 12.1% 13.6% Reconciliation of EBIT to Adjusted EBIT and Adjusted EBITDA - Warehouse Delivery For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended October 6, 2018 October 7, 2017 Earnings (loss) before interest and income taxes $ 5,866 $ (9,082) Loss on inferior ingredients 1,095 - Legal settlements and lease terminations 1,094 - Restructuring charges ,091 Adjusted EBIT 8,230 11,009 Depreciation and amortization 4,916 4,769 Adjusted EBITDA $ 13,146 $ 15,778 Sales $ 143,196 $ 145,567 Adjusted EBITDA margin 9.2% 10.8% 46

47 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES 47

48 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted) Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA For the 12 Week For the 16 Week For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Trailing 52 Week Period Ended Period Ended Period Ended Period Ended Period Ended December 30, 2017 April 21, 2018 July 14, 2018 October 6, 2018 October 6, 2018 Net income $ 78,533 $ 51,247 $ 45,442 $ 39,630 $ 214,852 Income tax expense (benefit) (34,709) 18,534 4,337 11,496 (342) Interest expense, net 2,563 2,901 1,748 1,565 8,777 Depreciation and amortization 32,431 44,189 35,098 32, ,380 EBITDA 78, ,871 86,625 85, ,667 Project Centennial consulting costs 5,461 6,432 2, ,837 Restructuring and related impairment charges 3,581 1, ,138 Multi-employer pension plan withdrawal costs - 2, ,322 Pension plan settlement loss 1,619 4,668 1, ,252 Legal settlements 1,475 1,350 8,345 11,921 23,091 Loss (recovery) on inferior ingredients - - 3,884 (1,891) 1,993 Adjusted EBITDA $ 90,954 $ 132,902 $ 102,905 $ 97,539 $ 424,300 48

49 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted) Reconciliation of Debt to Net Debt and Calculation of Net Debt to Trailing Twelve Month Adjusted EBITDA Ratio As of October 6, 2018 Current maturities of long-term debt and capital lease obligations $ 11,286 Long-term debt and capital lease obligations 814,090 Total debt and capital lease obligations 825,376 Less: Cash and cash equivalents 49,727 Net Debt $ 775,649 Adjusted EBITDA for the Trailing Twelve Months Ended October 6, 2018 $ 424,300 Ratio of Net Debt to Trailing Twelve Month EBITDA

50 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted) Reconciliation of Selling, Distribution and Administrative Expenses to Adjusted SD&A For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended October 6, 2018 October 7, 2017 Selling, distribution and administrative expenses $ 353,051 $ 356,826 Project Centennial consulting costs (729) (7,050) Legal settlements (11,921) (4,253) Adjusted selling, distribution and administrative expenses $ 340,401 $ 345,523 Sales $ 923,449 $ 932,822 Adjusted SD&A as a percent of sales 36.9% 37.0% 50

51 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted) Reconciliation of Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes to Adjusted EBT For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended October 6, 2018 October 7, 2017 Income (loss) before income taxes $ 51,126 $ (56,496) Project Centennial consulting costs 729 7,050 Loss (recovery) on inferior ingredients (1,891) - Multi-employer pension plan withdrawal costs - 18,268 Restructuring and related impairment charges ,549 Pension plan settlement loss 930 3,030 Legal settlements 11,921 4,253 Adjusted income before income taxes $ 63,312 $ 76,654 51