FOURTH QUARTER 2017 EARNINGS PRESENTATION FEBRUARY 8, 2018

Transcription

1 FOURTH QUARTER 2017 EARNINGS PRESENTATION FEBRUARY 8, 2018

2 REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Statements contained in this press release that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements relate to current expectations regarding our future financial condition, performance and results of operations, planned capital expenditures, long-term objectives of management, supply and demand, pricing trends and market forces, and integration plans and expected benefits of transactions and are often identified by the use of words and phrases such as "anticipate," "believe," "continue," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "plan," "predict," "project," "should," "will," "would," "is likely to," "is expected to" or "will continue," or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology. All forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from those projected. Other factors that may cause actual results to differ from the forward-looking statements contained in this release and that may affect the company's prospects in general include, but are not limited to, (a) general economic and business conditions and the competitive conditions in the baked foods industry, including promotional and price competition, (b) changes in consumer demand for our products, including changes in consumer behavior, trends and preferences, including health and whole grain trends, and the movement toward more inexpensive store-branded products, (c) the success of productivity improvements and new product introductions, (d) a significant reduction in business with any of our major customers including a reduction from adverse developments in any of our customer's business, (e) fluctuations in commodity pricing, (f) energy and raw material costs and availability and hedging and counterparty risk, (g) our ability to fully integrate recent acquisitions into our business, (h) our ability to achieve cash flow from capital expenditures and acquisitions and the availability of new acquisitions that build shareholder value, (i) our ability to successfully implement our business strategies, including those strategies the company has initiated under Project Centennial, which may involve, among other things, the integration of recent acquisitions or the acquisition or disposition of assets at presently targeted values, the deployment of new systems and technology and an enhanced organizational structure, (j) consolidation within the baking industry and related industries, (k) disruptions in our directstore delivery system, including litigation or an adverse ruling from a court or regulatory or government body that could affect the independent contractor classification of our independent distributors, (l) increasing legal complexity and legal proceedings that we are or may become subject to, (m) product recalls or safety concerns related to our products, and (n) the failure of our information technology systems to perform adequately, including any interruptions, intrusions or security breaches of such systems. The foregoing list of important factors does not include all such factors, nor necessarily present them in order of importance. In addition, you should consult other public disclosures made by the company, including the risk factors included in our most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") and disclosures made in other filings with the SEC and company press releases, for other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected by the company. We caution you not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, as they speak only as of the date made and are inherently uncertain. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update such statements, except as required by law. 2

3 TODAY S AGENDA Review Fourth Quarter 2017 Business Performance Update on Strategic Priorities Quarterly Financial Review Outlook for Full Year 2018 Q&A 3

4 FOURTH QUARTER 2017 BUSINESS PERFORMANCE Sales growth of 1.1%, excluding divestiture Record fourth quarter market share of 15.1 in packaged bread Organics continue to drive top line growth Improved sales and manufacturing efficiencies Substantial progress in transition to redesigned organizational structure 4

5 CATEGORY REVIEW FRESH PACKAGED BREADS Dollar Sales % Chg Unit Sales % Chg 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% -0.5% -0.3% -0.6% -0.2% -0.6% -0.3% -0.5% -1.2% -1.1% -1.1% -0.9% -0.8% -1.1% -1.0% 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 Source: Flowers Custom Database IRi Total US Mulo + C Store 5

6 CATEGORY REVIEW TOTAL CATEGORY: COMMERCIAL CAKE Dollar Sales % Chg Unit Sales % Chg 6.6% 7.0% 5.4% 5.1% 4.2% 4.0% 3.6% 3.5% 1.9% 1.8% 1.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.9% 2.3% 0.9% 1.6% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.7% -0.2% -0.6% -0.7% -2.6% 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 Source: Flowers Custom Database IRi Total US Mulo + C Store 6

7 FLOWERS MARKET SHARE FLO Bread Share FLO Cake Share Q Q Q Q Q Source: Flowers Custom Database IRi Total US Mulo + C Store 7

8 ORGANICS GENERATING GROWTH TOTAL ORGANIC FRESH PACKAGED BREADS FLO DOLLAR SHARE OF TOTAL ORGANICS $ $179.8 $220.9 $275.5 $ FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 DKB IS DRIVING FLOWERS MARKET SHARE GAINS IN THE KEY GROWTH SEGMENT OF THE CATEGORY Source: IRI Custom Database Total US + Convenience, calendar year ending 1-Jan weeks ended 8-Oct

9 PROGRESS ON PROJECT CENTENNIAL PG&S, Organizational Redesign, Supply Chain Optimization Savings: On track for goal of $70 million to $80 million of gross savings relative to 16FY Achieved gross savings of $32 million in 17FY Targeting gross savings of $38 million to $48 million in 18FY vs 17FY Additional savings in 2019 and beyond driven by supply chain optimization, cost discipline enabled by centralized oversight of PG&S spend, benefit of improved planning and analytics Organizational Redesign Benefits: Sales focused on execution and service Manufacturing focused on operating efficiencies and cost reductions Brand and marketing teams focused on specific brand objectives and insight-driven innovation 9

10 Q FINANCIAL REVIEW NET SALES $873.6M +0.6% Divestiture decreased sales by 50bps Price/Mix 1.1%; Volume 0.0% Growth driven primarily by organic loaf and breakfast items, offset by declines in branded conventional bread, buns/rolls, and snack cakes CASH FLOWS Cash from Ops = $73.4 million Capex = $24.0 million Dividends = $35.8 million Net reduction in borrowings of $22.8 million ADJ. EBITDA 1 $91.0M Decreased 0.7% 10.4% of sales, down 10bps Higher manf contract labor offset by improved efficiencies and lower SD&A expense DILUTED EPS $0.37 ADJ. DILUTED EPS 2 $0.17 Lower adj. EBITDA offset by lower net interest expense (1) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization, adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-gaap reconciliations at the end of this slide presentation. (2) Adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non- GAAP reconciliations at the end of this slide presentation. 10

11 FY 2018 OUTLOOK REVENUE CHG ADJ EPS 1 Flat to +1.6% GAAP EPS $1.00 to $1.11 $1.04 to $1.16 OTHER Depreciation & Amortization $145 to $150 million Net interest expense $11 to $12 million Effective tax rate 25.0% to 26.0% Diluted shares outstanding ~211.0 million Capital expenditures $95 to $105 million Adj EPS excludes: Project Centennial consulting and restructuring costs of $0.04 to $0.05. (1) Adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-gaap reconciliations at the end of this slide presentation. 11

12 KEY TAKEAWAYS Strong brands and a team committed to transforming the company Clear objectives to grow sales, expand margins, and deliver shareholder value Executing today on initiatives to reinvigorate the core, obtain fuel for growth, and improve financial performance Designing a company and operating model to deliver sustainable long-term value 12

13 Q&A 13

14 REGARDING NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES The company prepares its consolidated financial statements in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). However, from time to time, the company may present in its public statements, press releases and SEC filings, non-gaap financial measures such as, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBIT, EBITDA margin, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, adjusted operating income, adjusted operating income by segment, adjusted EBIT by segment, adjusted EPS, adjusted income tax expense, adjusted selling, distribution and administrative expenses (SD&A), gross margin excluding depreciation and amortization and the ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA. The reconciliations attached provide reconciliations of the non-gaap measures used in this presentation or release to the most comparable GAAP financial measure. The company s definitions of these non-gaap measures may differ from similarly titled measures used by others. These non-gaap measures should be considered supplemental to, and not a substitute for, financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP. The company defines EBITDA as earnings from continuing operations before interest, income taxes, depreciation, amortization and income attributable to non-controlling interest. The company believes that EBITDA is a useful tool for managing the operations of its business and is an indicator of the company's ability to incur and service indebtedness and generate free cash flow. EBITDA is used as the primary performance measure in the company's 2014 Omnibus Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan. Furthermore, pursuant to the terms of our credit facility, EBITDA is used to determine the company's compliance with certain financial covenants. The company also believes that EBITDA measures are commonly reported and widely used by investors and other interested parties as measures of a company's operating performance and debt servicing ability because EBITDA measures assist in comparing performance on a consistent basis without regard to depreciation or amortization, which can vary significantly depending upon accounting methods and non-operating factors (such as historical cost). EBITDA is also a widely-accepted financial indicator of a company's ability to incur and service indebtedness. EBITDA should not be considered an alternative to (a) income from operations or net income (loss) as a measure of operating performance; (b) cash flows provided by operating, investing and financing activities (as determined in accordance with GAAP) as a measure of the company's ability to meet its cash needs; or (c) any other indicator of performance or liquidity that has been determined in accordance with GAAP. The company defines adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBIT, EBITDA margin, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, adjusted operating income, adjusted operating income by segment, adjusted EBIT by segment, adjusted EPS, adjusted income tax expense, adjusted selling, distribution and administrative expenses (SD&A), respectively, excluding the impact of asset impairment charges, Project Centennial consulting costs, lease terminations and legal settlements, acquisition-related costs, and pension plan settlements. Adjusted income tax expense also excludes the impact of tax reform. The company believes that these measures, when considered together with its GAAP financial results, provides management and investors with a more complete understanding of its business operating results, including underlying trends, by excluding the effects of certain charges. Net debt to EBITDA is used as a measure of financial leverage employed by the company. Gross margin excluding depreciation and amortization is used as a performance measure to provide additional transparent information regarding our results of operations on a consolidated and segment basis. Changes in depreciation and amortization are separately discussed and include depreciation and amortization for materials, supplies, labor and other production costs and operating activities. Presentation of gross margin includes depreciation and amortization in the materials, supplies, labor and other production costs according to GAAP. Our method of presenting gross margin excludes the depreciation and amortization components, as discussed above. The reconciliations attached provide reconciliations of the non-gaap measures used in this presentation or release to the most comparable GAAP financial measure. 14

15 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Reconciliation of Earnings per Share to Adjusted Earnings per Share For the 12 Week Period Ended For the 12 Week Period Ended For the 52 Week Period Ended For the 52 Week Period Ended December 30, 2017 December 31, 2016 December 30, 2017 December 31, 2016 Net income per diluted common share $ 0.37 $ 0.06 $ 0.71 $ 0.78 Gain on divestiture - - (0.09) - Restructuring and related impairment charges Project Centennial consulting costs Impairment of assets (unrelated to restructuring) Lease terminations/legal settlement/extinguishment loss Pension plan settlement loss Multi-employer pension plan withdrawal costs Impact of tax reform (0.23) - (0.23) - Windfall tax benefit from stock option exercises (0.01) - (0.01) - Adjusted net income per diluted common share $ 0.17 $ 0.17 $ 0.89 $ 0.93 Certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures 15

16 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted, except per share data) Reconciliation of Gross Margin For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended December 30, 2017 December 31, 2016 Sales $ 873,623 $ 868,717 Materials, supplies, labor and other production costs (exclusive of depreciation and amortization) 456, ,462 Gross Margin excluding depreciation and amortization 416, ,255 Less depreciation and amortization for production activities 19,586 19,682 Gross Margin $ 397,237 $ 398,573 Depreciation and amortization for production activities $ 19,586 $ 19,682 Depreciation and amortization for selling, distribution and administrative activities 12,845 12,592 Total depreciation and amortization $ 32,431 $ 32,274 16

17 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted, except per share data) Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted EBIT and Adjusted EBITDA For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended December 30, 2017 December 31, 2016 Net income $ 78,533 $ 13,042 Income tax expense (benefit) (34,709) 4,244 Interest expense, net 2,563 3,882 Earnings before interest and income taxes 46,387 21,168 Restructuring and related impairment charges 3,581 - Project Centennial consulting costs 5,461 3,849 Impairment of assets (unrelated to restructuring) - 24,877 Lease terminations and legal settlement 1,475 9,250 Pension plan settlement loss 1, Adjusted EBIT 58,523 59,317 Depreciation and amortization 32,431 32,274 Adjusted EBITDA $ 90,954 $ 91,591 Sales $ 873,623 $ 868,717 Adjusted EBITDA margin 10.4% 10.5% 17

18 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted, except per share data) Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Cash Flow from Operations For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended December 30, 2017 December 31, 2016 Adjusted EBITDA $ 90,954 $ 91,591 Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities (39,471) 16,817 Changes in assets and liabilities and pension contributions 1,870 4,828 Income tax expense (benefit) 34,709 (4,244) Interest expense, net (2,563) (3,882) Restructuring and related impairment charges (3,581) - Project Centennial consulting costs (5,461) (3,849) Impairment of assets (unrelated to restructuring) - (24,877) Lease terminations and legal settlement (1,475) (9,250) Pension plan settlement loss (1,619) (173) Cash Flow From Operations $ 73,363 $ 66,961 18

19 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted, except per share data) Reconciliation of Income Tax Expense to Adjusted Income Tax Expense For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended December 30, 2017 December 31, 2016 Income tax expense (benefit) $ (34,709) $ 4,244 Tax impact of: Restructuring and related impairment charges 1,379 - Project Centennial consulting costs 2,103 1,481 Impairment of assets (unrelated to restructuring) - 9,578 Lease terminations and legal settlement 568 3,561 Pension plan settlement loss Impact of tax reform 48,160 Windfall tax benefit from stock option exercises 2,082 - Adjusted income tax expense $ 20,206 $ 18,931 19

20 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted, except per share data) Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Net Income For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended December 30, 2017 December 31, 2016 Net income $ 78,533 $ 13,042 Restructuring and related impairment charges 2,202 - Project Centennial consulting costs 3,358 2,368 Impairment of assets (unrelated to restructuring) - 15,299 Lease terminations and legal settlement 907 5,689 Pension plan settlement loss Impact of tax reform (48,160) - Windfall tax benefit from stock option exercises (2,082) - Adjusted net income $ 35,754 $ 36,504 20

21 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted, except per share data) Reconciliation of EBIT to Adjusted EBIT and Adjusted EBITDA - DSD For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended December 30, 2017 December 31, 2016 Earnings before interest and income taxes $ 55,950 $ 22,080 Restructuring and related impairment charges 3,401 - Impairment of assets (unrelated to restructuring) - 24,877 Lease terminations and legal settlement 1,475 9,250 Adjusted EBIT 60,826 56,207 Depreciation and amortization 27,782 27,103 Adjusted EBITDA $ 88,608 $ 83,310 Sales $ 738,556 $ 730,487 Adjusted EBITDA margin 12.0% 11.4% 21

22 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted, except per share data) Reconciliation of EBIT to Adjusted EBIT and Adjusted EBITDA - Warehouse Delivery For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended December 30, 2017 December 31, 2016 Earnings before interest and income taxes $ 7,536 $ 11,703 Restructuring and related impairment charges 31 - Adjusted EBIT 7,567 11,703 Depreciation and amortization 4,801 4,676 Adjusted EBITDA $ 12,368 $ 16,379 Sales $ 135,067 $ 138,230 Adjusted EBITDA margin 9.2% 11.8% 22

23 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted, except per share data) Reconciliation of EBIT to Adjusted EBIT and Adjusted EBITDA - Corporate For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended December 30, 2017 December 31, 2016 Earnings before interest and income taxes $ (17,099) $ (12,615) Restructuring and related impairment charges Project Centennial consulting costs 5,461 3,849 Pension plan settlement loss 1, Adjusted EBIT $ (9,870) $ (8,593) Depreciation and amortization (152) 495 Adjusted EBITDA $ (10,022) $ (8,098) 23

24 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted) Reconciliation of Selling, Distribution and Administrative Expenses to Adjusted SD&A For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended December 30, 2017 December 31, 2016 Selling, distribution and administrative expenses $ 332,805 $ 339,763 Project Centennial consulting costs (5,461) (3,849) Legal settlements (1,475) (9,250) Adjusted selling, distribution and administrative expenses $ 325,869 $ 326,664 Sales $ 873,623 $ 868,717 Adjusted SD&A as a percent of sales 37.3% 37.6% 24

25 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures Reconciliation of Earnings per Share - Full Year Fiscal 2018 Guidance Range Estimate Net income per diluted common share $ 1.00 to $ 1.11 Project Centennial reorganization and consulting costs Adjusted net income per diluted common share $ 1.04 to $

26 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted) Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) to Adjusted EBITDA For the 16 Week For the 12 Week For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Trailing 52 Week Period Ended Period Ended Period Ended Period Ended Period Ended April 22, 2017 July 15, 2017 October 7, 2017 December 30, 2017 December 30, 2017 Net income (loss) $ 60,418 $ 44,740 $ (33,571) $ 78,533 $ 150,120 Income tax expense (benefit) 34,659 22,148 (22,925) (34,709) (827) Interest expense, net 5,048 3,278 2,730 2,563 13,619 Depreciation and amortization 47,188 34,128 32,972 32, ,719 EBITDA (loss) 147, ,294 (20,794) 78, ,631 Gain on divestiture (28,875) (28,875) Project Centennial consulting costs 15,406 9,389 7,050 5,461 37,306 Lease terminations (1,279) (1,279) Restructuring and related impairment charges ,549 3, ,130 Multi-employer pension plan withdrawal costs ,268-18,268 Pension plan settlement loss - - 3,030 1,619 4,649 Legal settlement 250-4,253 1,475 5,978 Adjusted EBITDA $ 132,815 $ 113,683 $ 112,356 $ 90,954 $ 449,808 26

27 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted) Reconciliation of Debt to Net Debt and Calculation of Net Debt to Trailing Twelve Month Adjusted EBITDA Ratio As of December 30, 2017 Current maturities of long-term debt and capital lease obligations $ 12,095 Long-term debt and capital lease obligations 820,141 Total debt and capital lease obligations 832,236 Less: Cash and cash equivalents 5,129 Net Debt $ 827,107 Adjusted EBITDA for the Trailing Twelve Months Ended December 30, 2017 $ 449,808 Ratio of Net Debt to Trailing Twelve Month EBITDA

28 RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Flowers Foods, Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures (000's omitted) Reconciliation of Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes to Adjusted EBT For the 12 Week For the 12 Week Period Ended Period Ended December 30, 2017 December 31, 2016 Income before income taxes $ 43,824 $ 17,286 Project Centennial consulting costs 5,461 3,849 Restructuring and related impairment charges 3,581 - Impairment of assets - 24,877 Pension plan settlement loss 1, Legal settlements 1,475 9,250 Adjusted income before income taxes $ 55,960 $ 55,435 28