Modeling Regional Impacts of BSE in Alberta in Terms of Cattle Herd Structure

Transcription

1 Unversy of Lehbrdge Research Reposory OPUS Faculy Research and Publcaons hp://opus.uleh.ca MacLachlan, Ian Modelng Regonal Impacs of BSE n Albera n Terms of Cale Herd Srucure MacLachlan, Ian MacLachlan, Ian and Ivan Townshend, Modelng Regonal Impacs of BSE n Albera n Terms of Cale Herd Srucure, Augus 20, 2007, Presenaon for dscusson of daa requremens, Lvesock Esmang Un, Agrculure Dvson, Sascs Canada, Oawa. hp://hdl.handle.ne/10133/439 Downloaded from Unversy of Lehbrdge Research Reposory, OPUS

2 Modelng Regonal Impacs of BSE n Albera n Terms of Cale Herd Srucure Ian MacLachlan and Ivan Townshend, Deparmen of Geography, Unversy of Lehbrdge, Lehbrdge, Albera, T1K 3M4. E Mal: maclachlan@uleh.ca; own0@uleh.ca 1

3 Srucure of Talk Regonal Impac of BSE Crss Dscuss daa ssues Descrbe shf and share model Noaon Salboa racng meaphor Shf share deny Examne prelmnary resuls Fuure research 2

4 Regonal Impac of BSE Socal Impacs of TSEs U of C, Uof A, U of L Albera Pron Research Insue Albera Ingenuy Fund hp:// Subprovncal scale 3

5 Long run Effecs of BSE on he srucure & dsrbuon of he provncal cale herd Census of Agrculure 2001, 2006 May 16 h Exploraory: H 1, H 0 an unusually obsnae aemp o hnk clearly (Berrand Russell) 4

6 Lvesock census daa s publshed a dfferen scales: Naon Provnce Census Agrculural Regon Census Dvson» Consoldaed Census Subdvson» ~ couny + embedded muncpales Suppresson problem! 5

7 Albera s Cale Herd Srucure, 2006 Bovne ype (=1 8) Head coun Proporon B 1 Beef cows 2,035, B 2 Dary cows 78, B 3 Calves 2,050, B 4 Dary hefers 37, B 5 Beef rep hefers 275, B 6 Slaugher hefers 805, B 7 Seers 974, B 8 Bulls 109, B T Toal cale & calves 6,369, Source: Sascs Canada, 2006 Census of Agrculure (2007) hp:// 6

8 Noaon: Bovnes and me B, b, B, T b T, = 2001, =

9 Noaon: Incremenal change ΔB, = B B Δb, = b b 8

10 More Noaon: Herd sze change B B B B B R Δ = =,, b b b b b r Δ = =,, 9

11 Salboa Racng Wha makes a wnnng boa? Boa desgn and srucure Crew ranng and compeveness Flahead Lake, Monana, c/o Monan Phoography 10

12 Shf and Share Analyss of Albera s Cale Herd Wha s oal shf?, T ( ) R, b sb = Δb * sb measures oal number of bovnes ha have shfed no or ou of a regon n a sense: observed expeced We mgh expec (navely), ha b should grow as B T 11

13 Shf and Share Analyss of Albera s Cale Herd We can paron shf no componens sb = ssb + rsb Toal shf = srucural shf + regonal shf 12

14 Shf and Share Analyss of Albera s Cale Herd Srucural shf ( ) R,, R b ssb = * T The provnce provdes our arbrary reference rae, R We scale he T dfference n R by regonal b 13

15 Shf and Share Analyss of Albera s Cale Herd Regonal shf ( ) r,, R b rsb = * The r and R erms measure he dfference beween regonal and naonal growh by bovne ype We scale he dfference by b 14

16 Shf and Share Analyss of Albera s Cale Herd Fleshng ou he model ( ) ( ) [ ] ( ) [ ] T T b R r b R R b R b * * *,,,,,, + + = Δ rse sse pe b + + = Δ By rearrangng erms we arrve a he shf and share model expressed as hree componens: Bovne = provncal + srucural + regonal Change effec shf effec shf effec 15

17 Shf and Share Analyss of Albera s Cale Herd Wha are he mplcaons of herd srucure for places? Le s consder all cale n he regon Toal srucural shf effec ssb > 0 A regon wh favourable srucure: Has large numbers of bovne ype ha grew fas provncally Has small numbers of bovne ype ha declned provncally Growh could mply expecaons of rsng prces (replacemen hefers) Growh could smply mply lack of slaugher capacy (cows) n 16

18 Shf and Share Analyss of Albera s Cale Herd Wha s all mean for regons? Toal regonal shf effec: n rse > 0 A regon wh a favourable regonal shf effec compees effecvely wh oher regons: Weaher condons/rrgaon waer avalably Fxed capal nvesmen/nfrasrucure (producon, processng, markeng) Proxmy o U.S. markes (norh souh) 17

19 Cale Populaon n Albera, Bovne Cale populaon Absolue Percen ype Change Growh Beef cows 2,035,841 2,099,288-63, Dary cows 78,875 84,044-5, Calves 2,050,773 2,169, , Dary hefers 37,803 38, Beef rep hefers 275, ,291-83, Slaugher hefers 805, ,553 44, Seers 974, ,554-16, Bulls 109, ,379-1, Toal cale & 6,369,116 6,615, , calves Source: Sascs Canada, 2006 Census of Agrculure, Farm Daa and Farm Operaor Daa, caalogue no XWE. 18

20 Vewed change agans a backdrop of provncal declne Bg ganers: Vulcan Kneehll Peace Bg losers: Calgary/souhwes Ponoka Lehbrdge 19

21 Hghway 2 corrdor (Canamex hghway) Edmonon Red Deer Calgary Lehbrdge 20

22 Seers, dsrbued n proporon o feedlos 21

23 Cale Populaon n Vulcan Couny, Bovne Cale populaon Absolue Percen ype change growh Beef cows 28,154 29,660-1, Dary cows 1, Calves 63,627 27,712 35, Dary hefers Beef rep hefers 3,402 2, Slaugher hefers 30,430 9,600 20, Seers 43,332 6,610 36, Bulls 1,496 1, Toal cale & calves 171,969 78,751 93, Source: Sascs Canada, 2006 Census of Agrculure, Farm Daa and 22 Farm Operaor Daa, caalogue no XWE.

24 Shf-share Parameers for Vulcan Couny, Bovne Provncal Srucural Regonal ype Change growh effec effec effec Beef cows -1,506-1, Dary cows Calves 35,915-1, ,432.8 Dary hefers Beef rep hefers ,364.8 Slaugher hefers 20, ,271.9 Seers 36, ,835.3 Bulls Toals 93,218-2, ,

25 Regon Observed bovne change Shf -Share Model Summary Expeced bovne change Srucural shf effec Regonal shf effec Agrculural Regon 1 10,785-21,140-3,811 35,736 Warner Couny 8,829-3, ,134 Lehbrdge Couny -56,853-21,707 25,532-60,678 Taber MD -6,880-5,875 4,317-5,323 Newell Couny -7,342-9,942 2, Vulcan Couny 93,218-2, ,875 Whealand Couny -2,651-7,771 2,123 2,997 Sarland Couny 2,514-1, ,070 Kneehll Couny 33,877-3, ,935 Agrculural Regon 3-140,826-38, ,465 Agrculural Regon 4A -25,104-19,122-3,258-2,724 Agrculural Regon 4B 9,575-19,917-4,050 33,542 Red Deer Couny -26,054-8, ,855 Lacombe Couny -6,717-5,347-1, Ponoka Couny -74,638-9, ,882 Clearwaer Couny -14,887-4,716-1,831-8,340 Census Dvson No ,179-15,743-5,130-16,306 Agrculural Regon 6-33,735-32,432-8,234 6,931 Agrculural Regon 7 27,983-14,594-6,777 49,353 Albera Toal -246, ,

26 Herd srucure favours he radonal ecumene, noably Lehbrdge Couny Where here s negave srucure effec, s absoluely small, norhern, and affecs boh ganers and losers. 25

27 Regonal effec s srong deermnan of ganers Peace Vulcan Kneehll And srong deermnan of losers Calgary/SW Ponoka Lehbrdge 26

28 Conclusons Cale herd s bu one mpac of BSE Impac of dsease deecon & rade barrers are uneven Mulple nfluences (sressors) (e.g. drough) Sub provncal regonal mpacs vary wdely Herd srucure seems o play mnor role Regonal shf effec s large Geography maers! 27

29 Source: Lessons Learned from he Canadan Drough Years 2001 and 2002 Synhess Repor for Agrculure and Agr-Food Canada by E. Wheaon (2005) 28

30 Source: Envronmen Canada, Weaher Offce, hp:// 29

31 Furher research 1. Model Wha oher knds of regonal/srucural herd models are ou here? 2. Suppressed regons problem Repea wh full census daa a CCS level 3. Lvesock survey daa Census Ag. Regon scale? Track changng shf share parameers over me Sable or varable? Clear break afer 2003? 30

32 Thank-you! 31