Estimation of Optimal Tax Level on Pesticides Use and its

Transcription

1 64 Bulgaran Journal of Agrculural Scence, 8 (No 5 0, Agrculural Academy Esmaon of Opmal Ta Level on Pescdes Use and s Impac on Agrculure N. Ivanova,. Soyanova and P. Mshev Unversy of Naonal and World Economy, BG 000 Sofa, Bulgara Absrac Ivanova, N.,. Soyanova and P. Mshev, 0. Esmaon of opmal a level on pescdes use and s mpac on agrculure. Bulg. J. Agrc. Sc., 8: The opmal a level on pescdes use s esmaed based on he approach suggesed by Kalazdaks, Mamuneas, Ncholas, Sefanou, Sengos (00 as some amendmens n he proposed model are done. The perod n he analyss s , and he opmal a for each case sudy s esmaed as an average for he perod. The opmal a level s esmaed for Bulgara, Porugal, France, Germany, Poland and Hungary. The opmal a levels on pescdes use obaned n all analysed cases are generally low, less han 50%, and are hghly dependen on he assumpon of he effec of pescde use on he fnal consumpon of agrculural good and no so much dependen on he assumpon of he effec of he consumpon of he agrculural good on overall uly and o he effec of envronmenal ualy on overall uly. Ths praccally means ha consumers would value much more he effec of reducon of pescdes use on fnal consumpon of agrculural goods han oher eernal effecs of pes use. The opmal a level esmaed s used o evaluae he mpac of a nroducon on farm level n Bulgara and Porugal. In boh cases, he hghes level of he effec on consumpon s used. Ths means ha n case of Bulgara he a level s esablshed a 4% hus leadng o an ncrease n prce of pescdes used by 4% and n Porugal a 3% leadng o an ncrease n prces of pescdes by 3%. The mpac a farm level s evaluaed based on he model developed by Skevas, Sefanou, Lansnk (0 and some amendmens are done n model due o daa avalably n boh counres. The sudy shows ha he effec of nroducon of a a farm level s relavely nsgnfcan f he level of he a s less han 50% n boh counres, Bulgara and Porugal. Impac ha s more subsanal could be epeced n respec o he cos of pescdes n case of a hgher han 50%. The hgh aes are needed o acheve sgnfcan reducon n use of pescdes. The mpac of a nroducon depends on specalzaon of he farms. I s hgher n he cases for farms wh orchards and vneyard specalzaon han on average for all farms. Havng n mnd ha generally he use of pescdes s relavely nelasc o he prce of pescdes whch has been proven by he wo case sudes performed mposng a less han 50% for Bulgara and Porugal would no lead o subsanal reducon of pes use and as he share of coss for pescdes n oal cos on producon (8 0% hough he perod on average for agrculure hs ncrease n prce of pes would lead o relavely low ncrease (less han % n case of Bulgara and less han 3% n case of Porugal n he oal cos of producon and ha wll no lead o a subsanal reducon n pes use. Therefore, n wo case sudy regons he effec of he nroducon of a on pescdes use even a hghes socally opmal level s doubful. Key words: opmal a level, pescdes, mpac on agrculure, Bulgara The research leadng o hese resuls has receved fundng from he European Communy s Sevenh Framework Programme [FP7/007-0] under gran agreemen n 0.

2 64 Esmaon of he Socally Opmal Ta Level: Shor Descrpon of he Model for Esmaon of he Socally Opmal Ta Level The model appled for esmaon of he opmal a rae on pescde use s gven by he followng euaon Kalazdaks, Mamuneas, Ncholas, Sefanou, Sengos (0: ~ C C ( Y B E H, B pb Where: B - opmal a; p B - un cos of pescdes; Y agrculural oupu; C - consumpon of agrculural producs; H - farmer sock of healh; L - labour effor of farmers; - ualy of labour whch depends on healh; - producvy of labour. The parameers of he model (effec of pescde use on he fnal (consumpon agrculural good, δ (effec of he consumpon of he agrculural good on overall uly and (effec of envronmenal ualy on overall uly are resrced beween 0 and. The esmaon of he a s based on he combnaons of he parameers, and, akng values of 0.%, 0.5% and %. The envronmenal ualy s measured by he varable sock of he envronmen calculaed as suggesed by he followng relaonshp: E E E B, Where: E and E are he sock of he envronmen n he curren and prevous year, respecvely, B s he use of pescdes n he curren year; s he self-cleanng rae of he envronmen; s he damage rae of he envronmen due o he use of pescdes. Farmer s sock of healh s measured as suggesed by he followng euaon: H H AH B, Where H and H are he curren and prevous year sock of healh of farmers; AH s farmers healh ependure n he curren year; s he effcency rae of nves- N. Ivanova,. Soyanova and P. Mshev men n healh proecon; s he healh damage rae of pescde use. To calculae he nal sock values he suggesed approach s used.e. he followng euaons are appled: H0 AH B gh E0 B, g E Where g H and g E are he growh rae of he farmers sock of healh, and he growh rae of he envronmen ualy boh appromaed by he growh rae of GDP. The farmer healh ependures are calculaed based on he per capa healh ependure and labour employed n agrculure. The values for he oher parameers used n euaons n boh case sudes are he ones suggesed by Kalazdaks, Mamuneas, Ncholas, Sefanou, Sengos (0: = % s used as a rae of me preference = 4% s used for self cleanng rae of he envronmen = % s he margnal effec of pescdes used on envronmenal ualy ~ 0. % s he margnal effec of pescdes used on farmer s healh s he margnal effec of consumpon of agrculural goods on aver all uly s used for farm labour producvy Amendmens of he Model Appled n he Case Sudes Calculaon of he nal sock on he envronmen accordng o he suggesed approach leads o negave value for ha ndcaor n case of GDP hgher han 4%, as n case of Bulgara due o he assumpon ha he growh rae of he envronmen ualy s appromaed by he GDP growh rae. To solve he menoned problem nsead of dfference beween he self-cleanng rae and GDP growh n he denomnaor of he euaon he absolue value of hs dfference s used n he consdered case sudes.

3 Esmaon of Opmal Ta Level on Pescdes Use and s Impac on Agrculure 643 In addon o hs amendmen snce he nal socks on he envronmen depends no only on he value of pes used bu also depend on he arable land on whch he pescdes are appled, we used he value of pescdes per un of land nsead of he value of pescdes used only. No akng no accoun he land of applcaon of pes could lead o hgher nal values n case of hgher applcaon of pes per un of land, whch wll mean ha n case of hgher applcaon of pes per un of land, we wll have beer envronmenal ualy or he oppose. Ths could lead o msleadng resuls or a leas o no comparable resuls. Because of hs n he case sudes, he nal sock on envronmen s calculaed by he euaon shown bellow: B / AL E 0 GDP Where, AL s he land of pes applcaon, whch s appromaed, by he arable land. Thus usng he suggesed euaon for calculang he nal sock on he envronmen, we avod he problem wh recevng negave nal sock on he envronmen n case of GDP hgher han self-cleanng rae of he envronmen and make he nal values comparable across counres. Resuls of Applcaon of he Amended Approach n Bulgaran and Poruguese Case Sudes Daa used n esmaon he opmal a n boh case sudes cover he perod and are obaned from EUROSTAT. The ndcaors used are value of pescdes used, GDP growh rae, oal arable land, per capa healh ependure and oal number of people employed n agrculure. All daa n value erms are n consan prces (005=00 and measured n housands of Euros. Snce prces of pescdes are no avalable n boh counres, prce ndces are used as a proy of prce of pescdes (Kalazdaks, Mamuneas, Ncholas, Sefanou, Sengos (0. Snce he healh, ependures per capa n Bulgara are avalable snce 003 daa for 00 are assumed eual o hose n 003. In case of Porugal, daa for he las hree years are mssng. Due o hs, daa used n calculaon are 005 daa adjused wh GDP growh rae. The parameers of he model used are he same as suggesed by he menoned auhors, whch praccally means ha people n all nvesgaed counres rea he envronmen and healh alke and have he same preferences. Thus, he obaned resuls are comparable among counres eamned as well as comparable o he resuls obaned by he menoned auhors. The assumpon of marke eulbrum suggess ha Y=C, due o whch as a proy of agrculural oupu and consumpon he gross value added of he agrculural secor (n consan 005 prces s used. Based on he assumpons suggesed and amendmens done n case of calculaon of nal sock on he envronmen, he opmal a s esmaed over he perod Some key varables and he resuls obaned for he envronmenal load and sock of healh n are shown n Table. As seen from he able pescdes use per un of land and healh ependure per capa dffer subsanally among he counres. Ths s he reason caused he menoned above amendmen n he model whch makes he resuls more comparable. Table also shows ha ha he use of pescdes per un of land as well as healh ependure per capa dffer subsanally hough he perod. Subsanal dfferences n all varables hrough he observed perod reflec n dfferen opmal a levels hrough he years of observaons (Table. To avod obanng resuls ha would depend on he base year chosen he averages for he perod are used n he sudy. In Table, he lowes level s obaned n case of α, β and γ eual o 0.00 and hghes level s obaned n case of α, β and γ eual o 0.0. The resuls of esmaon show ha opmal a n all counres analysed dffers by years ue subsanally. The lowes a level n case of Bulgara s obaned n 007 (0.97% % and he hghes level - n 005 (.4% -.43%. In case of Porugal he lowes a level s obaned n 008 (.47% % and he hghes level s obaned n % - 35.%. In case of France he lowes a level s obaned n agan n 007 (4.77% % and he hghes n 00 (5.7% 57.09%. In Germany he lowes a level refers o 008, whle he hghes o 004 when reaches o 59.98% a mamum. In he

4 644 N. Ivanova,. Soyanova and P. Mshev Table Descrpve sascs of key varables used Average S. def. Bulgara Added (mll Consumpon (mll envronmen ( Calculaed sock of heals ( pes per 000 HA per capa healh ependure Porugal Added (mll Consumpon (mll envronmen ( Calculaed sock of heals ( pes per 000 HA per capa healh ependure France Added (mll Consumpon (mll envronmen ( Calculaed sock of healh ( pes per 000 HA per capa healh ependure Germany Added (mll Consumpon (mll envronmen ( Calculaed sock of healh ( pes per 000 HA per capa healh ependure Poland Added (mll Consumpon (mll envronmen ( Calculaed sock of healh ( pes per 000 HA per capa healh ependure Hungary Added (mll Consumpon (mll envronmen ( Calculaed sock of healh ( pes per 000 HA per capa healh ependure Source: EUROSRTAT and own calculaons

5 Esmaon of Opmal Ta Level on Pescdes Use and s Impac on Agrculure 645 oher wo counres he lowes a level s obaned n 008 (Poland and 007 (Hungary, whle he hghes level s calculaed n 004 n boh counres. Due o he large dfferences n he a levels obaned over he perod n all cases and hgh dependence of he a level on he base year chosen he average a level over he whole perod s calculaed. In esmaon he average a level he smple averages for he pescdes consumpon and agrculural gross value added, weghed average for he healh ependure are used. The average a levels obaned on average for he perod are presened n Table 3. The opmal a levels on pescdes use obaned n all analysed cases are generally low less han 50% and are hghly dependen on he assumpon of he effec of pescde use on he fnal consumpon agrculural good and praccally no so much dependen on he assumpon of he effec of he consumpon of he agrculural good on overall uly and o he effec of envronmenal ualy on overall uly. Ths praccally means ha consumers would value much more he effec of reducon of pescdes use on fnal consumpon of agrculural goods han oher eernal effecs of pes use. As seen from he able he obaned a levels vared among he counres as he lowes a level s obaned n case of Bulgara (.4% - 4.0%, and he hghes n France (5.% - 5.0%. These a levels esmaed correspond o he resuls obaned by Kalazdaks, Mamuneas, Ncholas, Sefanou, Sengos (0 for Cyprus, UK and Neherlands, bu as seen from he able and he resuls presened, alhough he eual reamen of he healh and envronmen he a levels dffer ue subsanally. In order o fnd he reasons for he observed dfferences n a levels obaned a comparson of he pes used per un of land and per capa healh ependure are compared (Table. The resuls show ha he hgher s he uany of pescdes used per housand of hecare and healh ependure hgher s he esmaed a level. Ths praccally means ha under he same preferences of he consumers he a level should be hgher n case of agrculure ha s more nensve and he oppose lower n case of less nensve agrculure. Table Lowes and hghes levels of opmal a obaned over he perod Bulgara Lowes.07%.89%.7%.4%.49% 0.97%.48% Hghes 0.65% 8.90% 7.5%.43% 4.87% 9.66% 4.77% Porugal Lowes 3.43% 3.5% 3.37%.94% 3.8%.53%.47% Hghes 34.8% 35.% 33.69% 9.36% 3.80% 5.33% 4.74% France Lowes 5.7% 4.8% 5.69% 5.4% 5.05% 4.77% 4.06% Hghes 57.09% 48.4% 56.89% 5.39% 50.48% 47.69% 40.58% Germany Lowes 4.64% 4.53% 6.00% 4.87% 4.75% 4.60% 3.83% Hghes 46.39% 45.5% 59.98% 48.74% 47.50% 46.0% 38.33% Poland Lowes.76%.67%.33%.30%.%.4%.50% Hghes 7.64% 6.65% 3.7% 3.00%.4%.43% 5.05% Hungary Lowes.4%.58% 3.87% 3.53% 3.%.9% 3.33% Hghes 4.0% 5.83% 38.69% 35.3% 3.%.87% 33.9% Source: own calculaon

6 646 N. Ivanova,. Soyanova and P. Mshev Sensvy Analyss of he Obaned Resuls Due o he large number of he assumed parameers used n he model he sensvy analyss of he a levels esmaed n he sudy regons s performed. The sensvy analyss s done based on 0% change n he assumed parameers. Resuls of he analyss show ha he resuls are he mos sensve o he parameer rae of me preference (parameer conneced o he shor run gans and he long run losses from pescde use, as 0% ncrease n leads o changes n a levels beween mnus 0.7% (α=%, δ=0.%, γ=0.% and mnus 6.0% (α=0.%, δ=%, γ=%. Que sensve are also he resuls o he change n he effec of he consumpon of he agrculural goods on overall uly (β as he change vares from mnus 0.7% (α=%, δ=0.%, γ=0.% o mnus 5.96% (α=0.%, δ=0.%, γ=%. Resuls are praccally no sensve o all oher parameers used n he model snce 0% ncrease n all of hem have led o a change n he a level less ha %. The sensvy analyss showed ha he obaned a levels are relavely sable n respec o he assumed parameers n he model wh ecepon of he wo parameers menoned above bu as seen from Table 3 he a levels esmaed depends hghly on he assumpon of he parameers, and. Esmaon of he Effec of he Esablshed Ta Levels on Farms The model appled for he esmaon of a level s effec on farm s he model developed by Skevas e al. (0. Accordng o he heorecal model, farmers are mamzng her prof akng no accoun her producon possbles and pescde mpacs gven by followng euaon: p y w w ( ma, z where y ( e. p p [ p y w p ( ] p w z l h e ( c 0 ( N l c * d h 3 l h z 4 PI w l 3 h 3 y: oupu; p: oupu prce; w p : prce of varable npus; w z : prce of pescdes; c: farm specfc dummes; : varable npus (.e. ferlzers, oher npus; : fed npus (.e. labor, capal land; β: dscoun facor; l : low ocy pescdes; h : hgh ocy pescdes; lh : neracon erm of he wo pescde caegores; PI: pescde mpacs on dfferen organsms and he healh of he farm operaor. The soluon o hs opmzaon problem leads o he opmal and (varable npus. Accordng o he avalable FADN daa n boh counres some changes n he model were done. Snce he pescde s mpacs, daa do no es for Bulgara and some of he Bulgaran and Poruguese FADN daa are more aggregaed han hese for Neherlands he mamzaon funcon used for boh cases are: Ma ( p y p w w p,, p y where n he case of Bulgara y e ( c 0 N c * d and n he case of Porugal y e ( c 0 N z pescdes c * d ( e 3 ( 3 ( e ( The varable npus n Bulgaran case are calculaed as a dfference beween he value of oal npus and pescdes. The varable npus n he case of Porugal conss wo ypes of npus. The frs one s called oher npus calculaed as a sum of ependures for energy and seeds, oher specfc cos and oher drec npus. The second ype s ferlzers. Varable npus for boh cases are denoed as. Varable npus were measured n euro. Fed npus ( n he case of Bulgara nclude land ( and labour (. Fed npus n he case of Porugal nclude land (, labour ( and capal (3. Land s measured n hecares and labour s measured n annual work uns (AWU. Pescdes were measured as ependures n euro.

7 Esmaon of Opmal Ta Level on Pescdes Use and s Impac on Agrculure 647 Table 3 Ta levels obaned under dfferen assumpon for he parameers α, β and γ Bulgara α = 0.00 α =0.005 α=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 γ=0.00.4%.43%.45% 7.0% 7.04% 7.06% 4.03% 4.05% 4.07% γ= %.44%.46% 7.03% 7.05% 7.07% 4.04% 4.06% 4.08% γ=0.0.44%.45%.48% 7.05% 7.06% 7.09% 4.06% 4.08% 4.0% Porugal α = 0.00 α =0.005 α=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 γ= % 3.4% 3.5% 3.84% 3.85% 3.87% 7.3% 7.4% 7.6% γ= % 4.94% 4.95% 5.64% 5.65% 5.66% 9.03% 9.04% 9.05% γ= % 7.8% 7.0% 7.88% 7.89% 7.9% 3.7% 3.8% 3.30% France α = 0.00 α =0.005 α=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 γ= % 5.% 5.4% 9.30% 9.3% 9.33% 4.54% 4.55% 4.57% γ= %.36%.38% 5.54% 5.55% 5.57% 30.78% 30.79% 30.8% γ= % 4.66% 4.67% 45.83% 45.85% 45.87% 5.07% 5.09% 5.0% Germany α = 0.00 α =0.005 α=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 γ= % 4.3% 4.34% 7.85% 7.88% 7.9%.3%.34%.38% γ= % 7.83% 7.86%.37%.40%.44% 5.84% 5.86% 5.90% γ= % 34.73% 34.77% 38.7% 38.30% 38.34% 4.74% 4.77% 4.80% Poland α = 0.00 α =0.005 α=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 γ= %.00%.0% 8.07% 8.09% 8.0% 5.68% 5.70% 5.7% γ= % 3.85% 3.86% 9.9% 9.93% 9.95% 7.53% 7.54% 7.56% γ= % 6.5% 6.7%.3%.4%.6% 9.84% 9.85% 9.87% Hungary α = 0.00 α =0.005 α=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 β=0.00 β=0.005 β=0.0 γ= % 3.09% 3.0% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 9.44% 9.45% 9.45% γ= %.64%.64% 5.46% 5.46% 5.47% 8.99% 8.99% 8.99% γ= % 4.57% 4.57% 7.39% 7.39% 7.40% 30.9% 30.9% 30.93% Source: own calculaons The parameers o be esmaed are α, β, γ, c. The coeffcens α, β, γ are nerpreed as elascy and parameers c are farm specfc dummes ha elmnae he nfluence of some facors ha are no accouned for n he model such as sochasc evens and measuremen errors. Resuls of Applcaon of he Mcro Model n he Case of Bulgara and Porugal The effec of mposng a on pes use on farms s esmaed n he case of Bulgara and Porugal. Havng n mnd ha generally he use of pescdes s relavely

8 648 N. Ivanova,. Soyanova and P. Mshev nelasc o he prce of pescdes (Kalazdaks, Mamuneas, Ncholas, Sefanou, Sengos mposng a less han 50% (as esmaed n all consdered counres would no lead o subsanal reducon of pes use and havng n mnd he share of coss for pescdes n oal cos on producon (8 0% hough he perod on average for agrculure hs ncrease n prce of pes would lead o relavely low ncrease (less han % n case of Bulgara and less han 3% n case of Porugal n he oal cos of producon. Due o hs we have consdered he hghes level of a on pes consumpon esmaed,.e. α = %, or n oher words he a level n Bulgara esablshed a 4% and hus ncreasng he prce of pescdes used by 4% and n Porugal a 3% leadng o an ncrease n prces of pescdes by 3%. Daa used for esmaon of he a level s effec on farm n Bulgaran case cover wo years and 007. Daa from he farm accounancy daa nework of he Bulgaran Mnsry of Agrculure were used. The daa for calculaon of esmaed parameers - α, β and γ used n Bulgaran smulaon model are for years 005 and 007. Bulgaran FADN daa for 007 was used o esmae he model. To fnd ou wheher he producon paern has mpac on model resuls wo daa ses were used. The frs daa se covers all he daa for he counry (.e. 09 observaons. The second one covers only daa for he farms specalzed n orchards (9 observaons. Daa used for esmaon of he a level s effec on farm n Poruguese case cover he perod Daa from he farm accounancy daa nework n Porugal are used. The daa used for he calculaon of esmaed parameers - α, β and γ used n he smulaon model n Poruguese case cover he perod and o esmae he model Poruguese FADN daa for 007 are used. As n case of Bulgara, wo cases are consdered: all farms (8 observaons and vneyard farms only (04 observaons. S scenaros wh dfferen aes appled are developed. The a s acheved by ncreasng he prce of pescde wh 5, 0, 3, 50, 80 and 0% n case of Bulgara and 0, 0, 50, 55, 80 and 0 % n case of Porugal. The effec of nroducon of a a on prof and oher varable npus a farm level n he case of all farms n Bulgara (Table 4 s relavely nsgnfcan n all analysed a levels. The reducon n prof s beween 0.03% a 5% a level and 0.3% a 0 % a appled. The epeced change n oher varable npus s from 0,003% o 0.05%. The only sensve ndcaor s he value of pescdes. The epeced reducon n pescdes use s beween 0.58 and 0.3% n he case for all farms (Table 4. As seen from he able f he a level s below 50% he epeced reducon on pescdes use s less han 5%, and he reducon s slghly above 0% n case of a eual o 0%. Ths praccally means ha n case of Bulgara he a level should be a mnmum 50% o be able o epec a leas 5% reducon n pescdes use. Snce 50% a s hghly above he socally opmal a esmaed n case of Bulgara we could conclude ha nroducon of a a s opmal level wll no lead o reducon of pescdes use. The analyss shows ha he effec of nroducon of a n he case of farms wh orchards specalzaon n Bulgara s more sgnfcan han for all farms bu generally he effec on oher varable npus and on prof s low. The reducon n prof s nsgnfcan for all levels a appled wh only ecepon of a level 0%, when he change n prof s -.04 %. The epeced change n oher varable npus vary from -0.0 % for 5 % a appled o % for level 0 % a appled. As n case of all farms, mpac ha s more subsanal could be epeced n respec o value of pescdes as he change n he case he orchard s case he epeced reducon n pescdes use s beween 0.7 % and 4.49 % (Table 5. Agan relavely reasonable reducon n pes use could no be epeced f he a level s below 50% or a leas 3% (wh reducon of pes use by 4.9% whch s hghly above he socally opmal a esmaed. The resuls n he case of all he farms as well as for he farms wh orchards specalzaon show ha here s a reducon n prof, oher varable npus and pescdes under all scenaros esed (Tables 5 and 6. The reducon of he prof and oher varable npus s relavely nsgnfcan for mos a levels appled. Value of pescdes proofed o be he mos sensve ndcaor as for he case of all farms as well as for he case of farms wh orchards specalzaon n Bulgara.

9 Esmaon of Opmal Ta Level on Pescdes Use and s Impac on Agrculure 649 The resuls of he analyss n boh cases n Bulgaran case sudy lead o a concluson ha n he case of Bulgara he nroducon of a a on pescdes whn he socally opmal a level wll no cause really reducon of pes use. The resuls of farm level model applcaon n case of Porugal for all farms as well as for he farms wh vneyard specalzaon also show ha he reducon n prof, oher varable npus, ferlzers and pescdes for all levels of he aes appled are more sensve o he a level han n he case of Bulgara. The reducon of prof s relavely nsgnfcan for a level up o 50%. The negave mpac of a nroducon on prof s sensble a a levels 50% and above. Varable npus and ferlzers are praccally nsensve for he daase of all he farms (reducon less han.3% s esmaed Table 4 Change n prof, oher varable npus and pescdes under he a scenaros appled, Bulgara all daa (base 007 year Ta appled 5% 5% 3% 50% 80% 0% Prof, % Oher varable npus, % Pescdes, % Source: own calculaons Table 6 Change n prof, oher varable npus and pescdes under he varous a scenaros appled Porugal all daa (base 007 year Ta appled 0% 0% 50% 55% 80% 0 % Prof, % Ferlzer, % Oher varable npus, % Pescdes, % Source: own calculaons and for he farms wh vneyard specalzaon (reducon below % a all a levels appled. As n case of Bulgara value of pescdes s he mos sensve ndcaor for boh daa ses among he ndcaors analysed. For agrculure as whole (based on all farms he change of pescde s use s beween. and 7.59 % (Table 6. Reducon n pes use hgher han 5% could be epeced a 50% a level or hgher whch as n case of Bulgara s above he socally opmal a levels esmaed. The effec of nroducon of a a farm level for he case of farms wh vneyards specalzaon n Porugal s also relavely more sgnfcan han on all farms (Table 7. The reducon n prof s nsgnfcan for he a levels below 50% as he change of prof s and -.43 %. The change n prof for he oher a levels Table 5 Change n prof, oher varable npus and pescdes under he a scenaros appled, Bulgara orchards (base 007 year Ta appled 5% 5% 3% 50% 80% 0% Prof, % Oher varable npus, % Pescdes, % Source: own calculaons Table 7 Change n prof, ferlzer, oher varable npus and pescdes wh varous a scenaros appled n case of vneyards (base 006 year Ta appled 0% 0% 50% 55 % 80% 0% Prof, % Ferlzer,% Oher varable npus,% Pescdes, % Source: own calculaons

10 650 N. Ivanova,. Soyanova and P. Mshev appled vares beween a 50% a and a 0% a. These resuls shows ha vneyards producon wll be affeced much more han on average for all farms n case of nroducon of a on pescdes use. The epeced change n oher varable npus and ferlzers as n case of all farms s nsgnfcan n farms specalzed n vneyards n Porugal. The change n oher npus vares from -0.8 % for 0 % a appled o -.86 % for level 0 % a appled. The change n ferlzers vares from -0. % for 0 % a appled o -.8 % for level 0 % a appled. Boh resuls show ha oher npus and value of ferlsers wll no be affeced much f he a on pes s nroduced. Resuls of he analyss of he mpac of nroducon of a on pescdes use show ha could be epeced relavely sgnfcan reducon n he value of pescdes n he vneyard case n Porugal. The epeced reducon n pescdes use s beween.3 % a 0% a and 7.9 % a 0% a (Table 7. Agan, he a should be a leas 50% o epec really reducon n pes use. The resuls obaned a macro- and mcro levels n he wo case sudes show ha s unlkely o epec ha nroducon a a on crop proecon would resul o a decrease n he use of crop proecon producs or a sgnfcan change n he way hgh npu farmers farm. I s also very unlkely hese farmers o move from hgh npu crop proecon sysems o low npu or organc sysems. Conclusons Susanable use of pescdes n European agrculure s a ask wh hgh prory for fuure developmen of EU agrculure. The desgned socally opmal a and levy scheme appled reveals wo mporan ssues: In all counres, analysed consumers value much more he effecs of reducon of pescdes use on fnal consumpon of agrculural use han oher eernal effecs of pescdes use. Alhough he coss of pescdes are mporan n he cos srucure of agrculural producon n Bulgara and Porugal, ncrease of prce of pescdes (hrough a mposng would lead o relavely low ncrease n he oal cos of he producon as well as n nsgnfcan reducon n prof of he farmers wh ecepon of vneyards farmers n Porugal. Thus n he case of boh counres effecs of a nroducon even on upper lm of obaned opmal a level s ue doubful. References Kalazdaks, P., Th. Mamuneas, Ph. Ncholas, S. Sefanou and Th. Sengos, 00. WP 6.: A Dynamc Macroeconomc Model of Effecve Pescde Use and Effecve Ta and Levy Sysem. Kalazdaks, P., Th. Mamuneas, Ph. Ncholas, S. Sefanou and Th. Sengos, 0. WP6.4: Emprcal Invesgaon of Polcy Effecs on Opmal Pescde Use wh Emphass on Consrucng an Effecve Ta and Levy Scheme. Skevas, T., S. E. Sefanou and A. Oude Lansnk, 0. WP:5.4. An emprcal and heorecal evaluaon of he mpacs of pescde levy and a schemes on agrculure and he envronmen. D6.4 Emprcal Invesgaon of Polcy Effec on Opmal Pescde Use wh Emphass on Consrucng an Effecve Ta and Levy Scheme Receved March,, 0; acceped for prnng July,, 0.