Ariana Resources. Deal brings Australian lithium exposure. Funding complete to tackle phase 1 exploration. Dakota Minerals deal structure

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1 Ariana Resources Deal brings Australian lithium exposure Lithium deal Metals & mining While its Red Rabbit JV progresses the Kiziltepe mine towards first production in H216, Ariana has made strides towards involvement in the burgeoning lithium exploration space. A deal has been completed between its 86%-owned Australian subsidiary Asgard Metals, Slipstream Resources Investments and ASX-listed junior Dakota Minerals, with the latter looking to develop a number of lithium-tantalum bearing tenements in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Although at the greenfield stage, the specific area in question (Pilgangoora) is currently operated on by a small group of junior miners (including Dakota), which are valued on an in-situ resource basis at approximately 2x the global average. This is perhaps an indication of value attributed to the relatively high grade of the deposits, but perhaps also due to the tantalum resource content, a much publicised conflict mineral. 2 March 2016 Price 0.85p Market cap 7m US$1.43/ Net cash ( m) at 30 June Shares in issue 802.1m Free float 77% Code AAU Primary exchange AIM Secondary exchange N/A Share price performance Year end Revenue ( m) PBT* ( m) EPS* (p) 12/ (1.5) (0.3) 0.0 N/A N/A 12/ (1.0) (0.2) 0.0 N/A N/A 12/15e 0.0 (1.1) (0.2) 0.0 N/A N/A 12/16e 3.9 (0.0) (0.0) 0.0 N/A N/A DPS (p) Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. Funding complete to tackle phase 1 exploration Dakota recently completed a total A$3.6m in funding, which will be used to undertake grassroots exploration (including structural mapping of the tenements) and drilling, with a maiden resource targeted for H216. Dakota Minerals deal structure Ariana, via Asgard, has completed a JV agreement with Slipstream Resources to P/E (x) Yield (%) vend a package of six tenements in the Pilgangoora lithium-tantalum pegmatite belt to Dakota Minerals. The deal includes a cash payment to Asgard of A$147k and 22.5m Dakota shares. Performance shares will be issued to Asgard as and when Dakota announces certain sized JORC-compliant lithium resources. Valuation: Li value small, but exploration success key We have adjusted our base case valuation for Ariana s eventual 50% share of the Red Rabbit JV for an FX rate of US$1.43/ (cf US$1.52/ previously), and a Ag:Au conversion ratio of 81 (cf 71 previously) and we have moved our valuation forwards one year to All other valuation parameters remain the same as in our November 2015 outlook note. On this basis our valuation is 1.93p (vs 1.73p previously). Additional value may be attributed to its 49/51 Salinbas JV, for which we have a scoping study level value of 3.04p. As a result of its lithium deal, Ariana, via Asgard, currently owns the equivalent of 19.4m Dakota shares worth 0.6m (A$1.2m), and will receive an interest worth a further 25.3m Dakota shares if it achieves its performance milestones. % 1m 3m 12m Abs (2.9) Rel (local) week high/low 1.35p 0.75p Business description Ariana Resources is a gold exploration company focused on exploration and development projects in Turkey. Ariana currently owns 69.6% of the Red Rabbit JV with partner Proccea Construction, which reduces to 50% at the point of first mine production (assumed during H216). Next events Kiziltepe first production Analysts CY H216 Tom Hayes +44 (0) Charles Gibson +44 (0) mining@edisongroup.com Edison profile page Ariana Resources is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

2 WA lithium trades at 2x peer avg Ariana, via its 86% owned subsidiary Asgard Metals Pty Ltd., has now secured exposure to lithium, a metal currently enjoying heightened interest due to the very positive media attention attributed mainly to the electric vehicle market. The tenements that Asgard and Slipstream Resources have transferred to Dakota are located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, and specifically over land that is known to contain relatively high-grade deposits of lithium and also tantalum in hard-rock (ie not brine) form. The specific area that Dakota will explore will be the Pilgangoora region, which contains a series of pegmatites that have already yielded two JORC-compliant resource estimates by ASX-listed junior mining companies Altura Mining and Pilbara Minerals (See Exhibit 2). Tantalum is also present in the Pilgangoora pegmatites and will likely also be extracted as a coproduct to the lithium. While the tantalum price is currently experiencing a continued downtrend, the US Securities Exchange Commission, as a result of guidance contained in the Dodd Frank Act 2010, has classed it a conflict mineral. This requires users to audit their supply chains and state publicly whether they use metals in their products mined in, or in the surrounding countries, to the DRC. Though classification of tantalum as a conflict mineral is not new, increasing pressure on electronics manufacturers to be transparent on the use of such minerals in their products can only support tantalum production from non-conflict countries worldwide. According to the USGS 2016 Mineral Commodities Summary, tantalum is sourced primarily in Rwanda, which accounts for 50% of global production, followed by the DRC (17%) and Australia (12%). The USGS estimated total 2015 production at 1,200 tonnes. Dakota deal summary The deal involves Asgard (86% owned by Ariana) and Slipstream Resources vending six tenements in the Pilgangoora area of Western Australia to Dakota Minerals. The joint venture between Asgard and Slipstream is split 49/51. A cash payment of A$147k will be paid by Dakota to Asgard, and Dakota will issue 22.5m new ordinary shares to Asgard. A further 29.4m performance shares in Dakota will be issued to Asgard pending completion of two resource estimates by Dakota. The following exhibit details the size of these two resource estimates, the LiO 2 grade required and the performance shares that would be issued to Asgard as a result. Exhibit 1: Performance share milestones Total performance shares issued upon definition of inferred resource of 5Mt at 1.2% LiO2 30m Total performance shares issued upon definition of inferred resource of 15Mt at 1.2% LiO2 30m Due to Asgard (balance to Slipstream) based on 49:51 split 29.4m Ariana interest in Dakota performance shares (based on Ariana owning 86% of Asgard) 25.3m, Ariana announcement Pilgangoora supporting three exploration companies The Pilgangoora region of Western Australia is the focus of three lithium exploration and development companies. Work programmes target the Pilgangoora pegmatite swarm, a series of intrusive mineralised veins that are prospective for lithium and tantalum. The region is actively explored by Dakota Minerals, as well as Pilbara Minerals and Altura Mining. Ariana Resources 2 March

3 Exhibit 2: Lynas Find tenement location (LHS) and rock chip results (RHS) Source: Dakota Minerals website Pegmatites are a coarsely crystallised igneous rock type formed at a late stage of crystallisation, sometimes from residual magmatic melt fluids and are commonly found to contain rarer mineral species than the magmatic parent to which they are related. Composition is similar to granite and with respect to the Pilgangoora pegmatites contains not only lithium in potentially economic concentrations, but also tantalum, a mineral used in numerous electronics applications. Existing lithium mineral resources in Western Australia Other WA lithium resources are given in the following exhibit. Note that Talison is 49% owned by Rockwood Holdings (NYSE: ROC) and is in production. Galaxy Resources and its JV partner General Mining produce lithium from its Mt Cattlin mine. Both these projects are omitted from the following mineral resource classification due to their producing status. Exhibit 3: Other Western Australian lithium resources Measured Indicated Inferred Total Rock type Date of resource/ann ounced Company name Project name Mt Grade % LiO2 Mt Grade % LiO2 Mt Grade % LiO2 Mt Grade % LiO2 Talison Greenbushe % % % % Spodumene 30/09/2012 s Altura Mining Pilgangoora N/A N/A % % % Spodumene 11/02/2016 Project Pilbara Minerals Pilgangoora N/A N/A % % % Spodumene 01/02/2016 Li-Ta Project Galaxy Resources/General Mt Cattlin % % % % Spodumene 04/08/2015 Mining Neometals Mt Marlon N/A N/A % % % Spodumene 25/10/2015. Note: To convert into LCE terms, multiply LiO 2 value by The lithium resources closest to Dakota s Lynas Find deposit are that of Altura Mining s Pilgangoora Lithium-Tantalum project and also Pilbara Minerals similarly named Pilgangoora Lithium project. The grade and size of these resources are presented alongside their global peers in Exhibit 4. As Ariana Resources 2 March

4 EV $/t Li2CO3 eqv. grade (%) can be seen below, Pilbara Minerals resource is a relative outlier in terms of its size as it is the largest of the hard rock, spodumene-type deposits and only beaten by the very large brine deposits as well as Bacanora Minerals and Rare Earth Minerals Sonora deposit, which is clay based. Exhibit 4: Lithium resource sizes stated in lithium carbonate equivalent terms 10.00% Clayton Valley (PE) 8.00% Greenbushes (ALB) Mt Cattlin (GXY) 6.00% Mt Marion (NMX) Wolfsberg (European Lithium, private) Pilgangoora Li Project (AJM) 4.00% Whabouchi (ORM) Georgia Lake (ULI) 2.00% Pilgangoora Li-Ta project (PLS) Salar de Cauchari (ORE) Rose (CRE) James Bay (GXY) 0.00% Kings Valley (WLC) Sal de Vida (GXY) Salar de Olaroz (ORE) Cinovec (EMH) Sonora (BCN/REM) -2.00% - 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 Li2CO3 eqv. tonnes, company data The aim will be for Dakota to replicate the size and grade of Pilbara Minerals lithium resource of 80Mt at c 1.26% LiO 2 (note: this is presented in LCE terms in Exhibit 4). Pilbara Minerals as of 18 February 2016 had a market capitalisation of A$285m, though this also reflects Pilbara s near-term production Tabba-Tabba tantalum asset. Taking the cost of percussion (ie reverse circulation) drilling at A$80/m implies that a A$1m budget would allow for 12,500m of drilling to be completed. This would hypothetically allow for 42 drill holes each to a depth of 300m to be completed, which should allow definition of a code-compliant resource. Reverse circulation drilling was the drilling method used to underpin Pilbara Minerals JORC-compliant 80.2Mt resource estimate. Mineral resource valuations The following exhibits (5 and 6) provide in-situ enterprise value per tonne (EV/t) valuations of preproduction stage lithium projects outside (Exhibit 5) and within (Exhibit 6) Australia. Exhibit 5: US$ EV/t (LCE) valuations for non-western Australian lithium projects (as of 25 February 2016) European Metals Bacanora Minerals European Lithium Western Lithium Rare Earth Minerals Ultra Lithium Nemaska Lithium Critical Elements EV/t Weighted average EV/t Ariana Resources 2 March

5 EV $/t Though the sample groups for both Exhibit 5 and 6 are very small, the latter suggests a potential premium is paid for Western Australian lithium projects on an in-situ EV/t basis. If this is a true reflection of the value attributed to these projects, then it may suggest that a premium is applied to hard-rock deposits for their relatively high grade (cf brine based deposits) and potentially due to the content of tantalum in the resource. The presence of tantalum may be considered valuable by investors due to the potential for this specialty metal to experience a price-rebound related to future demand constraints linked to politically sensitive DRC supply. We must also note that the Australian bourse has only one listed brine based lithium project (Galaxy s Sal de Vida project), limiting investors options for exposure to lithium on that market. Dakota is at a very early stage and so we assume it will be at least successful in achieving its first performance milestone of a 5Mt 1.2% LiO 2 resource. We have therefore included Dakota in Exhibit 6 on this basis for illustrative purposes only. Exhibit 6: US$ EV/t (LCE) valuations for Western Australian lithium projects (as of 25/2/16) Dakota Minerals Altura Mining Pilbara Minerals Neometals EV/t Weighted average EV/t Points to note about both peer groups: Neometals Mt Marion project will produce a Li-Ta concentrate only and is located south of Kalgoorlie. This is the only WA project in this peer group that is not in the Pilgangoora area. Neometals will produce a lower value concentrate and not a refined LCE or LiOH product. This will lower revenues albeit while expediting development by reducing the technical and financing risks associated with project development. Rare Earth Minerals is a holding company and has direct minority as well as equity interests in a number of lithium projects worldwide. Galaxy and Orocobre are omitted due to their producer status. They are valued on the same EV/t basis at US$18/t and US$49/t respectively. European Lithium is included as a result of having a code-compliant resource and its stated near-term intention to list, to raise US$5m, via IPO. Pilbara Minerals had a market cap of A$285m on 18 February 2016, which not only reflects its lithium exposure but also its near-term production Tabba-Tabba tantalum asset. Lithium market: Battery factories highlight opportunity The lithium subsector of the mining industry is currently enjoying a period of increased interest. The much-hyped reason for this is the rapidly growing electrical vehicle market (122% CAGR in , source: International Energy Agency), either plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) or battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The majority of these use lithium due to its cost benefit, which reflects its currently unrivalled energy density per kg of weight. This latter point has been used as the principle guide in designing suitable battery packs for automobile use. Although the automotive industry is a key driver for growth, the current market for lithium is highly diversified (Exhibit 8). The metal, in refined, concentrate or various chemical forms, is used in the medical, ceramics and glass, automotive and industrial sectors. Ariana Resources 2 March

6 Global EV sales (000s) Exhibit 7: Global PHEV, BEV sales PHEV BEV Source: International Energy Agency Global EV Outlook Exhibit 7 above shows the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates of unit sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The EV industry is still very much in its infancy and accurate forecasts of EV market growth are based on unreliable assumptions. However, a 16-member multi-government policy forum called the Electric Vehicle Initiative forecasts 6m EVs sold pa by 2020 (source: IEA website). Furthermore, simply looking at predicted EV unit sales in isolation may not sufficiently account for the volumes of lithium that would be required to support this. We therefore assess the implied lithium requirements and feasibility of this assumption. Our conclusion is that lithium supply is likely to be a limiting factor to EV manufacturers achieving planned output levels over the next decade. This is likely to support and stimulate lithium pricing, which, in turn, supports the investment thesis for lithium asset owners and producers. Exhibit 8: Lithium global end-use markets Batteries 31% Lubcricating 8% Continuous casting mold flux powders 6% Air treatment 5% Polymer production 5% Primary aluminum production 1% Other uses 9% Source: US Geological Survey Ceramics & glass 35% Battery factories planned or in construction Highlighting the very real interest by technology firms in the potential for lithium ion battery technology to become the mainstay of EV manufacture are a number of battery factories currently planned or under construction. The most significant of these is the Gigafactory in Nevada which is nearing completion. Exhibit 9 below provides our assumption of the ramp-up that could occur at each factory, which we then use to underpin our estimate of future LCE demand. Ariana Resources 2 March

7 Global planned Li-ion battery production capacity (GWh) Battery manufacturing capacity (GWh) Exhibit 9: New lithium-ion battery factories under construction or planned showing cumulative lithiumion battery manufacturing capacity in GWh Samsung SDI LG Chem Tesla Motors Foxconn BYD (Chinese Co.) Boston Power Source: After The lithium-ion battery megafactories are coming chart, 8 May Note: Includes assumed ramp-up of battery plants. Exhibit 9 above assumes a much idealised ramp-up in production and does not factor in EV growth rates. Effectively, it assumes that lithium-ion battery demand is governed by production capacity and not by the number of EVs sold. If battery factories are completed, lithium demand will skyrocket If all the companies given in Exhibit 9 build all the battery factories planned and a ramp-up in production follows our assumptions, we can estimate the amount of LCE that would be required to operate them. Exhibit 10 below provides an illustrative profile of LCE demand growth based on battery manufacturing increasing as per Exhibit 9, assuming 3.89kg of LCE is required to produce 1 KWh (ie a battery converts 10% of the theoretical energy contained in lithium). We also estimate base LCE demand growth at 3% pa in line with current global GDP growth levels. Exhibit 10: Illustrative growth profile of automotive EV LCE demand includes assumed ramp-up of battery plants 600, , , , , , Base LCE demand LCE (tonnes). Note: Uses a flat 3.89kg/KWh of lithium. Assuming a flat 3.89kg/KWh of LCE is used, effectively that no advance in energy density will be realised, there is the potential for demand for LCE to increase by 318% from current levels by However, increasing energy density is likely to be a key efficiency driver for manufacturers of lithium-ion batteries; especially as lowering the weight of EVs is a key component of increasing range. The following section provides a scenario whereby increasing energy density leads to reduced LCE demand. Increasing energy density reduces LCE demand growth We use the same assumptions of potential battery manufacturing capacity set out above to assess the impact of a 5% pa increase in battery energy density. This represents improvements in battery technology and improvements in the amount of energy that can be realised from any given weight Ariana Resources 2 March

8 LCE (tonnes) Global planned Li-ion battery production capacity (GWh) of lithium. Assuming a 5% increase in energy density pa, whereby 3.9kg of lithium is required to produce 1 KWh currently, which then reduces to 1.30kg by 2019 (ie 30% energy conversion efficiency), potential future demand would reduce from the estimate in Exhibit 10 to that shown in Exhibit 11 below. Exhibit 11: Illustrative growth profile of automotive EV LCE demand includes assumed ramp up of battery plants 300, , , , ,000 50, Base LCE demand LCE (tonnes). Note: Applies a 5% y-o-y increase in energy density. Conclusion: A tight lithium market should only become tighter The impact of increasing energy densities on future potential lithium demand is material. If energy densities improve by 5% pa (indicated as a scenario in Exhibit 11), we can see that future potential demand growth for LCE based on the assumed ramp-up in battery manufacturing capacity (shown in Exhibit 9) could reduce by as much as 48% relative to using a flat 3.9kg/KWh value through to While there is no certainty over any of the assumptions provided above, we can observe that if only a number of the battery factories currently planned were to materialise, a lithium market already in balance would experience tightening, with the associated result of increased lithium product prices. Exhibit 12: Difference between 2022e LCE demand using 3.9kg/KWh vs 1.3kg/KWh lithium factors 600, , , , , , forecast LCE demand using a 3.9kg/KWh lithium factor 2022 forecast LCE demand using a 1.3kg/KWh lithium factor We do not believe that the companies shown in Exhibit 9 will have adequately factored lithium supply risk into their supply chain assumptions. The time and money required to assess lithium resources will be longer than for conventional open market-traded commodities. This is due to the requirement of resource developers to satisfy end-user criteria and product testing, inter alia. This could be viewed as a long-term positive for lithium mining, with demand driven by EV growth likely to outstrip lithium supply. Ariana Resources 2 March

9 Recap of Ariana s base case valuation Exhibit 14 details assumptions used in our base case valuation using the DFS announced on 24 June The changes refer to operating and capital costs, with the mine schedule used for mining the pits at Arzu South, Kepez, Arzu North, Banu and Derya remaining unchanged apart from the start of mining, which we now forecast to occur in H216 rather than The current life of mine is therefore H216 to Our gold and silver price forecasts, which should be viewed alongside analysis within our February 2015 sector report Gold: The value of gold and other metals, are given in Exhibit 13. Exhibit 13: Edison gold and silver price forecasts Year Gold price (US$/oz) 1,224 1,347 1,408 1,483 1,467 1,409 1,404 1,389 1,379 Silver price (US$$/oz) Our base case valuations assumptions for Ariana s eventual 50% share of Red Rabbit are given in Exhibit 14 below. Exhibit 14: Assumptions used in base case valuation Parameter Value based on June 2013 DFS updated for new 2015 contractor mining costs Annual production 150,000tpa Gold grade (after mine dilution, mine/process. recovery factors) 3.07g/t Metallurgical recovery - Au 87.5% Metallurgical recovery - Ag 64.0% Mining cost per tonne ore (includes waste extraction) US$13.10/t Stripping ratio 12.1:1 Processing costs US$23.19/t General and administrative costs US$10.22/t Total cost per tonne US$50.10/t Capex US$33.2m US$/ 1.43 Commencement of mining H216 Marginal tax rate ( ) 2 Marginal tax rate ( ) 20 Debtor days 30 Creditor days 30 and Ariana Resources Our valuation factors in 100% debt funding of Red Rabbit, based on Ariana and Proccea s arrangement with Turkish bank Turkiye Finans Katilim Bankasi. We forecast the capex required to develop Red Rabbit will be expended through to production start-up in H216. We also include a working capital requirement as stated in the DFS of US$3.2m or 2.1m in On this basis, we value Ariana s eventual 50% share of the Red Rabbit project at 1.93p (vs 1.73p previously). This reduces to 0.95p using gold and silver prices of US$1,200/oz and US$13.68/oz respectively. Ariana Resources 2 March

10 pence Exhibit 15: Our estimate of theoretical diluted EPS, DPS and DDF DDF Dil EPS (p) DPS (p) DDF (p) 0.00 Sensitivities We provide the following qualitative sensitivities specific to Ariana Resources: Exhibit 16: Sensitivity to gold and silver prices (held flat over life of mine) Gold price (US$/oz) 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 Silver price (US$/oz) NPV (p) Exhibit 17: Sensitivity to discount rate Discount rate (%) NPV (p) Exhibit 18: Sensitivity to percentage change in operating costs % change in operating costs NPV (p) Financials Ariana raised, via the issue of new shares, a total of 818k during 2014 and 1,343k in 2015 at a share price of 0.9p. This money has been used to further the geological understanding of Ariana s licence areas, pursue and complete its environmental impact assessment (now approved by the government) and complete a trial mining exercise as per the conditions of its mining licence. Ariana has a current cash burn rate of c 65k per month, low in terms of mining juniors, reflecting the result of a series of cost-cutting exercises. Ariana considers its current cash balance will support its operations until mining commences in H216. We forecast the 17.2m in capital expenditure required to construct the Kiziltepe mine being spent over H215 and H116. Proccea will manage the construction phase, at which point it will take its full 50% interest in the Red Rabbit joint venture. Ariana Resources 2 March

11 Exhibit 19: Financial summary 000s e 2016e Year end 31 December IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS PROFIT & LOSS Revenue ,862 Cost of Sales 0 (121) 0 0 (1,223) Gross Profit 0 (121) 0 0 2,640 EBITDA (1,080) (995) (880) (739) 1,823 Operating Profit (before GW and except.) (1,080) (995) (881) (740) (62) Intangible Amortisation Exceptionals Other Operating Profit (1,080) (908) (807) (740) (62) Net Interest (102) (124) (185) (111) 14 Associates/jvs 0 (422) 107 (259) 0 Profit Before Tax (norm) (1,182) (1,541) (960) (1,110) (49) Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) (1,182) (1,454) (885) (1,110) (49) Tax Profit After Tax (norm) (1,182) (1,541) (960) (1,110) (49) Profit After Tax (FRS 3) (1,182) (1,454) (885) (1,110) (49) Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) EPS - normalised (p) (0.4) (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) (0.0) EPS - FRS 3 (p) (0.4) (0.3) (0.1) (0.2) (0.0) Dividend per share (p) Gross Margin (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A EBITDA Margin (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A BALANCE SHEET Fixed Assets 6,028 5,604 5,569 5,748 22,708 Intangible Assets 5,320 2,167 2,146 2,324 2,324 Tangible Assets ,330 Investments 226 3,029 3,004 3,004 3,004 Other Current Assets 1,149 1,324 1,155 10, Stocks Debtors Cash ,770 0 Other Current Liabilities (744) (181) (248) 0 (1,538) Creditors (506) (181) (248) 0 (101) Short term borrowings* (238) (1,437) Long Term Liabilities (9,091) (15,152) Long term borrowings (9,091) (15,152) Other long term liabilities Net Assets 6,433 6,747 6,476 6,709 6,660 CASH FLOW Operating Cash Flow (860) (1,233) (664) (417) 1,564 Net Interest (102) (54) (185) (111) 14 Tax Capex (1,023) (203) (298) (180) (18,846) Acquisitions/disposals (57) Financing 1,154 1, ,343 0 Dividends Net Cash Flow (888) 194 (214) 635 (17,268) Opening net debt/(cash) (908) (17) (212) (44) (679) HP finance leases initiated Other (3) Closing net debt/(cash) (17) (212) (44) (679) 16,589 Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *For the purposes of our model we show the cash outflow as shortterm debt. We forecast Kiziltepe capex over H215 and FY16. Ariana Resources 2 March

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