financial results for the six months ended 31 December 2012 JSE: SOL NYSE: SSL

Transcription

1 financial results for the six months ended 31 December 2012 JSE: SOL NYSE: SSL

2 forward-looking statements Forward-looking statements: Sasol may, in this document, make certain statements that are not historical facts and relate to analyses and other information which are based on forecasts of future results and estimates of amounts not yet determinable. These statements may also relate to our future prospects, developments and business strategies. Examples of such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding exchange rate fluctuations, volume growth, increases in market share, total shareholder return and cost reductions. Words such as believe, anticipate, expect, intend, seek, will, plan, could, may, endeavour and project and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements, but are not the exclusive means of identifying such statements. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and there are risks that the predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements will not be achieved. If one or more of these risks materialise, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, our actual results may differ materially from those anticipated. You should understand that a number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the plans, objectives, expectations, estimates and intentions expressed in such forward-looking statements. These factors are discussed more fully in our most recent annual report under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 on Form 20-F filed on 12 October 2012 and in other filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. The list of factors discussed therein is not exhaustive; when relying on forward-looking statements to make investment decisions, you should carefully consider both these factors and other uncertainties and events. Forward-looking statements apply only as of the date on which they are made, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. better together we deliver 2

3 introduction David E. Constable Chief Executive Officer

4 what you will hear today key messages Resilient notwithstanding global challenges Well-positioned regional strategies Delivering and growing sustainably Strong operational and financial performance Advancing exciting growth projects Compelling investment proposition Westlake Facility, Lake Charles, Louisiana Sasol Synfuels, Secunda better together we deliver 4

5 ZARbn resilient notwithstanding global challenges strong performer during challenging times Sasol s attributable earnings 25 22,4 23, ,8 17, ,9 10 7,1 9,7 7,7 9,4 10,4 13,6 Global recession 5 4,1 5,8 0 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Attributable earnings Linear (Attributable earnings) better together we deliver 5

6 well-positioned regional strategies solid foundation in Africa with exciting opportunities to expand internationally Emerging economies Mature economies Real GDP (% CAGR , PPP) Real GDP (% CAGR , PPP) 8 7, , ,9 4 2, ,0 0,8 0 Asia Sub-Saharan Arica Latin America 0 United States Japan Eurozone 66% of Sasol s total assets are within sub-saharan Africa South Africa contributes 28% to sub-saharan Africa s GDP Rapid development of shale gas in North America revitalising the energy and chemicals sectors Opportunity to create a strong competitive position Source: IMF WEO (Oct 12), Sasol calculations better together we deliver 6

7 delivering and growing sustainably broader contributions to the communities we live and work in Significant skills transfer and community support Basic and continuing education focusing on maths, science and technology Skills development Infrastructure and community development Committed R800m over 4 years through Project Ikusasa for municipality renewal Siyakha supports the establishment of broad-based black empowered enterprises Largest SA corporate taxpayer contributed R15bn in 1H13 to direct and indirect taxes 72,4% of our CAPEX spend invested in South Africa Group Partnership Forum with Sasol Management Siyakha Development Trust Initiative better together we deliver 7

8 delivering and growing sustainably advancing key milestones in South Africa in 1H13 Next phase of our R14bn mine replacement programme on track Synfuels growth programme delivers results with The commissioning of four new gasifiers Progress made on projects supporting environmental sustainability Sasolburg Gas Engines Power Plant commissioned in December 2012 ahead of schedule and well within budget Coal blending facility at Secunda Sasol Synfuels, Secunda Sasolburg Gas Engines Power Plant better together we deliver 8

9 delivering and growing sustainably advancing key milestones abroad in 1H13 Announced 2 strategic mega-projects progressing to FEED in Lake Charles, USA World-scale ethane cracker and derivatives Integrated GTL and chemicals facility FEED work for Uzbekistan GTL plant progressing according to schedule FID on gas-fired electricity generation in Mozambique Central Processing Facility, Mozambique FEED Announcement, Lake Charles, Louisiana better together we deliver 9

10 solid operational performance solid global operations ORYX GTL plant continues to achieve production records Average production above 90% of design capacity Sasol Synfuels delivered production for the period of 3,7 mt Successful shutdown in September 2012 Arya delivering solid results despite challenging environment Safety improvement plans deliver positive results ORYX GTL achieved a recordable case rate of zero ORYX GTL, Qatar Members of Sasol Mining Team, Secunda Brandspruit Colliery, Secunda better together we deliver 10

11 strong financial performance solid earnings Sasol Synfuels production up 10% Operating profit up by 9% (excluding once-offs) to R22,6bn Headline earnings per share up by 2% to R24,01 Interim dividend of R5,70 per share Cash flow from operations up by 6% to R27,5bn ORYX GTL, Qatar Sasol Synfuels, Secunda better together we deliver 11

12 financial and operational performance Christine Ramon Chief Financial Officer

13 favourable currency effects offset softer commodity prices US$/ton US$/bbl $/mmbtu (gas price) US$1 = ZAR 200 Lower US$ fuel, oil and US gas prices Brent Product price Henry Hub $130 $ Weakening currency R8, $111 $110 5 R7,63 $3,72 $3, H12 1H13 1H12 1H13 Softening chemical prices $1 417 $1 265 Polymers basket Solvents basket $1 220 $1 146 Commodity prices Rand/unit Average 1H13 % vs 1H12 Brent/bbl Fuel products/bbl Polymers/ton Solvents/ton H12 1H13 Export coal/ton Prices reflect international commodities or baskets of commodities and are not necessarily Sasol specific Sources: RSA Department of Energy, ICIS-LOR, Reuters, Platts, World Scale Association, API 4, International Energy Agency better together we deliver 13

14 group profitability underpinned by SA energy 1H13 1H12 % SA Energy 16,7 13,5 24 International Energy 0,5 1,2 58 Chemicals - 4,3 100 Other 1,7 1,5 13 Operating profit (Rbn) 18,9 20,5 8 Operating margin (%) 22,2 24,6 10 Earnings per share (R) 20,10 23,05 13 Headline earnings per share (R) 24,01 23,50 2 Synfuels production improvement continues Robust performance from SA Energy Oryx GTL excels, dry well write off in Mozambique Chemicals remain under pressure lower demand and margin squeeze, Arya partial impairment Operating profit negatively impacted by once-off charges of R3,6bn operating profit up by 9% excluding once-offs Other includes Merisol fair value adjustment and Canada FEC gains Operating profit split 9% 3% Dividend per share (R) 5,70 5,70 Cash flow from operations (Rbn) 27,5 25,9 6 88% SA Energy Intl Energy Chemicals Other better together we deliver 14

15 cash fixed costs increase compounded by challenging environment Cash fixed costs Cash fixed costs increase 6,9% in real terms excl. study, growth and once-off costs (9%) (2%) (5%) (16%) Rm 1H12 Uncontrollable factors¹ Period-on-period normalised Growth and study costs Maintenance and other² 1H13 1. Includes the impact of inflation (5,1%), exchange rate effects (2,5%) and electricity price increases above normal inflation (1,4%) 2. Relates mainly to higher maintenance costs (R473m) due to shutdown at Polymers and increased renewal spend at Synfuels to restore the plant as well as higher labour costs better together we deliver 15

16 SA energy: solid operational performance Operating profit (Rm) 1H13 1H12 % Mining Gas Synfuels Oil Other - (2) 100 Total cluster Mining benefited from higher sales prices and volumes to Synfuels Gas improved sales prices and volumes continue Synfuels production volumes up 10% coupled with higher prices Oil lower volumes at Natref due to extended planned shutdown, partially offset by higher marketing and refining margins Thubelisha mine shaft, Secunda Argon column for the 16th oxygen train, Secunda better together we deliver 16

17 international energy: ORYX GTL excels in performance Operating profit (Rm) 1H13 1H12 % SSI ORYX Funding growth (508) (551) 8 SPI (707) 121 Mozambique and Gabon Canada upstream (713) (373) 91 Exploration and growth (979) (253) 287 Total cluster Total cluster ex Canada ORYX SPI Production exceeds 90% design capacity Contributes 9% to group operating profit Benefits from higher volumes in Mozambique and Canada Canada upstream cash positive, higher depreciation Mupeji-1 dry well write-off (US$53m) Gas drilling rig, Mozambique ORYX GTL, Qatar better together we deliver 17

18 chemicals: lower demand, margin pressure and negative impact of Arya impairment Operating profit (Rm) 1H13 1H12 % Polymers (2 440) Solvents O&S Other Total cluster Polymers improved sales and production volumes in South Africa Local margins remain under severe pressure Arya achieves utilisation rate of 84%, negatively impacted by R1bn translation losses and R1,9bn partial impairment Solvents higher sales volumes but trading environment remains challenging O&S US operations performing exceptionally well, however Europe under margin pressure Wax expansion, Sasolburg Infrachem lab, South Africa EPU5, Sasolburg better together we deliver 18

19 cash generation funds growth opportunities 30 Sources and uses of cash 40 Capital investments 35,0 32, , % 65% % 29% 2% 33% 10 0 Rbn Sources Uses Sources Uses 1H12 1H13 Cash gen. by ops after tax Asset disposals Dividends Acquisitions and investments Capex 0 Rbn 2012 act 2013 est Sustenance Growth 2014 est better together we deliver 19

20 we remain committed to our progressive dividend policy 30 Stable interim dividend 6 40 Growth in earnings per share Rand TSR 1 29% ZAR H13 % 0 ZAR H12 1H13 Interim Final Dividend yield (year-end) Earnings per share Dividend per share 1. Source: Bloomberg 31 December 2007 to 31 December 2012, assuming dividends are reinvested in securities better together we deliver 20

21 FY13 profit outlook: strong management focus on improved operational performance and cost reduction Macro Financial and operational Oil price expected to remain stable Product prices expected to remain volatile Resolution of European debt crisis and US debt ceiling remains uncertain Rand remains biggest external factor impacting profitability Weaker ZAR will improve profitability Production Synfuels FY13 target of 7,2 mt to 7,4 mt Maintain ORYX GTL at 80-90% utilisation rate due to planned shutdown Arya utilisation rate at 75-80% due to feedstock constraints Canada will show flat volumes Normalised cash fixed costs to exceed South African PPI inflation Focus on volume growth, margin improvement and cost reduction Expect continued pressure on Polymers South Africa operating margins Arya divestiture process and currency devaluation in Iran likely to impact fair value of investment better together we deliver 21

22 a compelling investment proposition David E. Constable Chief Executive Officer

23 advancing to FEED and EPC focusing on delivery FEED/EPC Accelerate GTL growth Grow chemicals based on technology, market or feedstock advantage US GTL Uzbekistan GTL Escravos GTL Integrated US chemicals US ethane cracker and derivatives Tetramerisation FT wax expansion delivering shareholder value sustainably New Energy Mozambique electricity generation Improve and grow existing asset base Synfuels growth programme Mine replacement programme Ethylene purification Mozambique gas pipeline C₃ stabilisation Exploration Grow upstream business Mozambique blocks A, M-10, Sofala, Inhassoro Canada shale gas Coal Bed Methane, Botswana Australia Durban, South Africa offshore better together we deliver 23

24 our investment considerations four key questions Feedstock Technology and production platform Market Capability Do we have a leading low-cost feedstock advantage? Do we have a technology, scale of plant or operating know-how that provides a competitive advantage? Do we have a product or market position that provides a competitive advantage? Do we have the required project execution capability? better together we deliver 24

25 why the United States? four critically important answers Feedstock Technology and production platform Market Capability Large availability of low-cost ethane Rapid growth in gas supply Arbitrage between diesel and natural gas prices Lake Charles competitive chemical hub Leading proven GTL technology Off the shelf cracker designs Existing market position in ethylene value chain Superior product offering Market for high quality diesel and chemicals Phased execution approach Integrated project management team World-class contractors with strong track record of delivery Informed contracting strategies to mitigate schedule and cost overrun risks better together we deliver 25

26 robust US diesel prices linked to international markets US and international diesel prices will remain aligned $130,2/bbl $129,8/bbl $128,7/bbl $126,2/bbl $129,2/bbl $132,6/bbl Average 2012 diesel prices in $/bbl (Platts) better together we deliver 26

27 compelling investment proposition sustainable value creation Existing asset base New growth opportunities Value creation Solid foundation businesses Ability to monetise hydrocarbon resources Capitalise on low feedstock prices Demand for high quality fuels and chemicals Strong project pipeline including US megaprojects Solid balance sheet underpinning growth Progressive dividend policy Long-term shareholder value better together we deliver 27

28 JSE: SOL NYSE: SSL questions and answers