The Controversy of Exchange Rate Devaluation in Sudan

Transcription

1 The Controversy of Exchange Rate Devaluation in Sudan An Economy-wide General Equilibrium Assessment Khalid H. A. Siddig International Conference on Economic Modeling, Azores, Portugal: June 29, 2011

2 Outline Background and Rationale Methodology and Data Simulations Results Conclusions 2

3 Background and Rationale Since 1997, Sudan has been working with the IMF to implement macroeconomic reforms, including a managed float of the exchange rate (IMF, 2010). The IMF: EXR flexibility is key to rebuild foreign exchange reserves, particularly after the ToT shock (2009 lower oil prices) >> depreciated the equilibrium real EXR, The IMF: without greater EXR flexibility, there will be a need for further fiscal restraint, which could lead to the accumulation of domestic arrears, A trade-off between greater EXR flexibility and the need for fiscal tightening, with the risk that the latter could result in expenditure arrears, The authorities in Sudan recognizes this trade-off and prefer pursuing a flexible EXR policy, but they are concerned about inflationary pressures, 3

4 Background and Rationale A strong relationship between the real effective EXR and real oil prices in Sudan since the start of oil production, Large share of oil in total exports and revenues, as well as the strong correlation between government spending and oil revenue, IMF: the CBoS has lost a significant amount of reserves owing to the overvaluation of the currency (IMF, 2010), IMF: The declining trend in world food prices and the slower growth in domestic demand should help reduce the inflation concerns associated with EXR flexibility, Hassan (2006): it is necessary to take corrective action through depreciation of the SG as the IMF saw devaluation of the SG essential, 4

5 Background and Rationale Hassan (2006): the IMF count on the expenditure switching effect of devaluation and restoring international competitiveness of exports, Nashashibi (1980): the appropriate EXR is the devalued to ensure the profitability of traditional exports and encourage new export activities, Hussain and Thirwall (1984): the elasticity of export supply of cotton, groundnuts, sesame, and gum Arabic is very low because of structural rigidities and factor immobility, while the elasticity of import prices and domestic prices is very high, so that profitability of exporting remains unchanged, Mahran (1987): devaluation do not improve exports and has undesirable inflationary effects as it increases domestic prices and production costs, 5

6 Background and Rationale Eldaw (1992): devaluation negatively affect the competitiveness of cotton, groundnuts, wheat, and sorghum grown in Gezira during the period ( ), Sayed (1996): devaluation leads to a deterioration in the balance of payments, due to the rigidities that characterize the Sudanese economy, Mohammed (2004): devaluation and liberalization negatively affected the competitiveness of cotton grown in Gezira ( ), EXR against US$ has appreciated to about 21% in 2006/07 (Siddig, 2009), This literature survey on the EXR policies in Sudan show how controversial and ambiguous is the outcome of adopting specific EXR policy in Sudan, 6

7 Methodology and Data - Functions A CGE model is selected: Static (Lofgren et al. 2002), Producers: Leontief at the top-level and Leontief and CES for Intermediate and VA, respectively at the second-level, Households: interlinked Linear Expenditure Systems (LES), Sectoral Output / \ / Leontief \ / \ Intermediate inputs Value Added _/ \ / \ / Leo \ / CES \_ / \ / \ Qintd1 Qintdn Labour Land Capital 7

8 Methodology and Data - Functions Trade is modeled using the Armington insight under the assumption that imperfect substitution» Hence CES function between domestically produced and imported goods, And CET function between exports demand and domestic demand. Domestic Production / \ / CET \ / \ Exports Domestic demand Domestic Supply / \ / CES \ / \ Imports Domestic Production Armington (1969) 8

9 Methodology and Data - SAM The SAM is a consistent data framework that captures the information contained in the national income and product accounts and the IOT as well as the monetary flows between institutions within the economy under consideration (Pyatt & Round, 1985). The SAM developed by Siddig (2009) is used. SAM accounts Sub-accounts included 34 Sectors 10 agriculture, 10 industry, and 14 services 34 Commodities 10 agriculture, 10 industry, and 14 services 3 Factors Land, labour, and capital 3 Households High, medium, and low income 1 Government 5: one current and 4 taxes 1 Enterprise One 1 Rest of the world One in the single-country model 9

10 Methodology and Data - Closure Government: saving is flexible & tax rates are fixed, External balance: the real EXR is fixed, while foreign savings (the current account deficit) and the trade balance are flexible. Under such a situation, a depreciation of the REXR should reduce spending on imports and increase earnings from exports, Saving-investment : investment-driven, where the value of base savings adjusts with same percentage points as investment. Model closed: 10

11 Simulations Setup Contribution: IMF recent concerns with respect to Sudan. It employs an economy-wide impact assessment tool, Simulations: to account for wide range of policy debate with respect to EXR devaluation in Sudan, it simulates the SG to depreciate by 5%, 10%, and 15%, Outcome: provide evidences on whether or not the IMF calls on relaxing the control on the currency will be good for the economy. 11

12 Results: Macro-indicators Macro-indicators Base value % changes from the base* 5% 10% 15% Real absorption (LCU at base price) GDP at market price Real household consumption Total real exports Total real imports PPP real exchange rate Domestic (non-tradable) price index Private savings (% of nominal GDP) Trade deficit (% of nominal GDP) * Except for items computed as GDP shares. 12

13 Results: Production -Agriculture Commodities Domestic output Domestic sales Demand base % change base % change price (%) Agriculture (average) Wheat Cereals Cotton Oilseeds Other crops Livestock Milk Forest products Sugar Fishery Industry (average) Service (average)

14 Results: Production - Industry Commodities Domestic output Domestic sales Demand base % change base % change price (%) Agriculture (average) Industry (average) Food industries Other mining Petrol Textile Wood Paper Chemicals Metal Machinery Other Manufactures Service (average)

15 Results: Production - Service Commodities Domestic output Domestic sales Demand base % change base % change price (%) Agriculture (average) Industry (average) Service (average) Electricity Water Construction Trade Water transports Air transports Communication Business services Other services Public services

16 Results: Exports 30 % change from the base Cotton Oilseeds Other crops Livestock Forest products Sugar Processed food Fishery Petroleum Chemicals Manufactured goods Trade services 16

17 Results: Imports Wheat Cereals Other crops Livestock Milk Sugar Processed food Petroleum Textile Wood Paper Chemicals Manufactured goods Construction Transports Public services 0 % change from the base

18 Results: Welfare 2 5% devaluation 10% devaluation 15% devaluation % change from the base Equivalent variation Factors income 18

19 Conclusions Devaluation succeed to increase domestic prices of tradable goods and encourage producers to export: output and exports, Households: highly increasing prices (domestic & imported) and slightly increasing income >> purchasing power is enormously decreasing, Producers: higher prices for intermediate use negatively affected several sectors output, Accordingly, the flexibility in the Sudanese EXR suggested by the IMF should be carefully considered if it would lead the SG to devalue, Short run: Sudan should closely monitor and control the EXR to avoid its depreciation in the short run, Long run: encouraging both public private investments create jobs increases domestic income reduces negative consequences of inflation. 19