THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA

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1 THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND ECONOMIC AFFAIRS BUDGET EXECUTION REPORT FISCAL YEAR 2009/10 JULY DECEMBER 2009 DAR ES SALAM FEBRUARY 2010

2 SUMMARY The economic performance during the first half of the year 2009/10 was faced with various challenges partly as a result of the impacts of the ongoing global financial and economic crisis, which contributed to the observed inflationary pressures and shortfall in domestic revenue. In addition, the country experienced food shortages in some regions, necessitating the Government to purchase food from those regions with surplus and distribute to the regions with food shortages. The overall performance in domestic revenue indicated some improvement during the second quarter compared to the position reached in the first quarter. To this end, there was a 92 percent performance against targets in the second quarter of the year and on cumulative basis there was a 91 percent performance. Expenditure on the other hand, was satisfactory against their estimates while foreign assistance in the form of GBS continued to lag behind their initial estimates. The summary of Central Government operations is presented in Annex A. During the second quarter of the fiscal year 2009/10, revenue collections were TShs 1,199.4 billion, equivalent to 92 percent of estimates. All revenue categories performed below their estimates leading to the observed underperformance. Nonetheless, there was a 9 percent growth when compared to the corresponding period in 2008/09. Details of revenue performance in major components are presented in Annex B. Recurrent expenditure excluding CFS for the first half of the fiscal year stood at 97 percent of estimates. Development expenditure was well within the estimated amount. Domestic Interest payments stood at 69 percent of estimates while foreign interest payments were 73 percent of estimates. Details of Expenditure by category are presented in Annex C. The performance in external assistance during the second quarter of the year continued to exhibit the trend observed in the first quarter, with 61 percent performance in grant. Foreign financing stood above their estimates for both quarters. Net Domestic Financing (NDF) registered a cumulative drawdown of deposits of Tshs 11.9 billion, well within the performance criteria under the IMF PSI Program. Annex D provides detailed performance in grants, loans and domestic financing.

3 MACRO ECONOMIC PERFOMANCE 1. Macroeconomic performance during the first half of the fiscal year was characterized by the inflationary pressures, which remained at a double digit level. Inflation stood at 12.2 percent in December 2009 while the annual average was 12.1 percent compared to an average of 10.3 percent in The relatively high inflation in 2009 is mainly explained by food inflation associated with low food production due to erratic rains and food shortages in the neighboring countries. The average food inflation for 2009 was 17.9 percent compared to an average of 12.7 percent in The government purchased food from the regions with surplus and distributed to those regions with food shortages, as an immediate response to the situation. The Implementation of the Economic Rescue Plan against the Global Economic Recession 2. Tanzania s economy has been affected by the second round effects of the global financial and economic crisis particularly in tourism, agriculture and mining sectors leading to a fall in the prices of most commodity exports, revenue collection, foreign investments and increase in unemployment. 3. In response to the crisis, the Government prepared economic rescue package amounting to Tshs 1,692.5 billion to mitigate the adverse impact of the crisis on the Tanzania economy. As of end September 2009, Tshs billion, equivalent to 51 percent of the approved amount, was disbursed for this purpose as outlined below:

4 i. 35 cotton buyer firms requesting compensation for losses amounting to Tshs 28.6 billion were scrutinized. After review, the amount which was considered to be eligible for compensation was Tshs 26.9 billion and as of end September, a total of Tshs 19.9 billion was disbursed to compensate for losses incurred by cotton traders; ii. A total of Tshs 15.8 billion was disbursed as loan rescheduling guarantee. The guarantee is aimed at enabling borrowers to access loans from commercial banks to finance their economic activities, especially buying crops from farmers during 2009/10 season; iii. The Government disbursed Tshs 20 billion for stabilization of cotton price. Under this arrangement, cotton farmers, through Tanzania Cotton Board, receive 80 shillings per kilogram during 2009/10 season. The subsidy is intended to provide incentives to cotton farmers; iv. The Government disbursed Tshs 12.4 billion to expand loans for Export Credit Guarantee Scheme (ECGS) and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) guarantee scheme during the period under review; v. The Government provided Tshs 10 billion on-lending facility to ARTUMAS Company, through Tanzania Investment Bank. The Company failed to raise capital from international financial markets after its shares value fell drastically. The loan is intended to finance investment in energy sector in Lindi and Mtwara regions; vi. In June 2009, the Government borrowed Tshs 323 billion from domestic market, equivalent to 1.2 percent of GDP to finance revenue shortfall in

5 2008/09. Also in July 2009, the Government borrowed Tshs 150 billion as part of 1.6 percent of GDP to finance its 2009/10 budget; and 4. In June, 2009 the Government received USD 245 million (Tshs billion) concessional loan from IMF, through Exogenous Shocks Facility (ESF). The funds compensate shortfall in foreign exchange earnings. 5. The Government, through the Bank of Tanzania continued to exercise strict surveillance over financial institutions to ensure their operations are in line with laws and regulations. Thus, the financial system in Tanzania remains safe, stable, sound and resilient to the crisis. REVENUE PERFORMANCE BY SOURCE 6. The second quarter of 2009/10 saw a slight improvement in domestic revenue collections whereby total collections were Tshs 1,199.4 billion, equivalent to 92 percent of estimated Tshs 1,309 billion. This analysis excludes estimated collections from Local Government Authorities (LGAs) own sources due to the lag in data availability. All revenue major categories performed below their initial estimates. Nonetheless, year on year comparison indicates that there was a 9 percent growth from the levels reached in the corresponding period in 2008/09. On cumulative basis, revenue collections were Tshs. 2,306.6 billion or 91 percent of estimates and 7 percent higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year. Taxes on Imports 7. Collections from import taxes were Tshs billion reflecting a performance level of 96 percent of estimated Tshs billion. Import duty performed at 95 percent of estimates and excise duty on petroleum stood at 86 percent of estimates. This trend is caused by the effects of the global financial

6 crisis which lead to decline in volume of imports of taxable goods. Good performance was observed on value added taxes on other imports, which was Tshs. 197 billion or 105 percent of estimates. Year on year comparison indicates a growth in import tax revenues of 13 percent during the second quarter and 10 percent for the first half of the year 2009/10. Taxes on Domestic sales 8. Collections from taxes on domestic sales amounted to Tshs billion or 91 percent of estimates of Tshs billion and exhibits similar trend to that observed in the first quarter of the year. Excise duty collections were 82 percent of estimates while value added tax was 95 percent of estimates. Total collection for July to December 2009 amounted to Tshs billion, equivalent to 90 percent of estimates and reflecting a growth rate of 5 percent over the corresponding period in 2008/09. This performance indicated a slower than projected recovery in domestic production and hence sales of goods and services owing to the impacts of the global financial crisis. Income Tax 9. Income taxes collection during the second quarter of the year 2009/10 was Tshs billion, or 88 percent of the estimated amount and an overall growth of 2 percent compared to the corresponding period in the previous year. Collection for six months to December 2009 was Tshs billion, being 91 percent performance and 4 percent growth from 2008/09. The explained impacts of the crisis on production adversely affected income generation leading to lower than estimated revenues collections form this source. Other taxes 10. During the quarter ending December 2009, actual collections from other taxes category were Tshs billion, which was 95 percent of estimates. The

7 shortfall is attributed to less than projected collections from fuel levy and transit fee due to decline in volume of petroleum imports during the quarter, as well as Treasury voucher checks which depends on exemptions granted. Cumulative collections stood at 90 percent performance against the target and 9 percent growth compared to the similar period in 2008/09. Non tax revenue 11. Non tax revenue collections registered at Tshs billion in the second quarter of 2009/10 which was 80 percent of the estimated Tshs billion. Cumulative collections from this category stood at Tshs billion, equivalent to 77 percent of target and an increase of 8 percent from the corresponding period in 2008/09. The details are presented in annex B, and figure below highlights performance by major revenue categories. 3,000 Figure 1: Revenue Performance July-December ,500 In Billion Shillings 2,000 1,500 1, Taxes on Imports Taxes on Domestic Sales Income Tax Other Taxes Non Tax Revenue Total Revenue s July-Dec. 2008/09 EXPENDITURE BY CATEGORY

8 12. The implementation of budget is reliant on monthly allocations to the spending units based on resources availability, demands from the spending units and in line with the monetary programme. Cognizance of the resources challenge, in the event of resource shortages, monthly allocations ensure adequate funding for key interventions. The government continues to exercise close monitoring of budget implementation consistent with other macroeconomic developments. 13. Total expenditure for the second quarter of the year 2009/10 amounted to TShs 2,358.1 billion, being 5 percent above estimates and represents a growth of 40 percent compared to that in the corresponding period in 2008/09. This trend indicates a catch up in expenditure execution with a cumulative semi annual performance of Tshs. 4,343.2 billion equivalent to 97 percent performance against the estimates. Figure 2 below depicts the expenditure performance for major recurrent expenditure categories for the first quarter of 2009/10. 3,000 Figure 2: Recurrent Expenditure by category July- December ,500 2,000 Tsh billion 1,500 1, Wages and salaries Transfer to Zanzibar Institutional Transfers MDAs/Regions&LGAs Total Recurrent exc CFS s Expenditure Expenditure 2008/ The recurrent expenditure excluding CFS, for the quarter under review was Tshs 1,406.7 billion or 112 percent of estimates. Government wages and salaries performed at 95 percent of estimates, while expenditure on goods, services and

9 transfers were well above their estimates implying a catch up in execution. Thus, cumulative recurrent expenditure stood at 96 percent of estimates. It is noteworthy that the expenditure under the retention scheme exhibited a significant shortfall primarily due to the shortfall in revenue collections from this source. Further, the over-performances registered in expenditure on goods and services emanated mainly from payments for claims on teachers arrears, costs in addressing power shortages and costs of food distribution from surplus regions to those with shortages. Figure 2 below indicates recurrent expenditure performance for major categories during the first half of 2009/ Total development expenditure for July to December 2009 was TShs 1,450 billion, being in line with budget estimates. Of this amount, locally financed development expenditure was Tshs billion and foreign financed was Tshs 1,006.2 billion. A year on year comparison indicates a growth of development expenditure of 44 percent from the levels reached in 2008/ Fund releases for locally financed development expenditure continue to be made based on submission of certificates for most of infrastructure projects and also justification of requests for other development projects. 17. Expenditure on Government wages and salaries during the quarter to December 2009 was Tshs billion, being 95 percent of estimates. On a cumulative basis, Tshs billion was the expenditure on wages and salaries for half of year 2009/10. The government continued to meet expenditure arising from salary adjustments during the second quarter of the year. 18. Total interest payments for the second quarter was TShs 76.4 billion, comprised of Tshs 60.1 billion and Tshs 16.3 billion for domestic and foreign interest payment respectively. Both categories have shown performance below

10 their estimates during the quarter and also over the six month period. There has been a significant decline in domestic market interest rates, partly contributing to the observed underperformance in domestic interest payments. Annex C represents a detailed analysis of expenditure performance by categories. GRANTS AND FINANCING BY COMPONENT 19. Total grants received during the second quarter of the financial year 2009/10 amounted to TShs billion, which was 61 percent of estimates and 39 percent lower than that realized in the corresponding quarter of 2008/09. Cumulative grants received to December 2009 were Tshs 796 billion with aggregate performance of 61 percent. This was mainly due to delays and reduction in disbursement of general budget support funds by some development partners. 20. Total budget support grants received for the six months to December 2009 was TShs billion, equivalent to 61 percent of estimates and 4 percent lower that the disbursements in the corresponding period in 2008/09. The World Bank (IDA) and the United Kingdom (DFID) have reduced their original commitments by USD 10 million and Sterling Pound 10 million respectively, on the ground that they are not satisfied with Government efforts in improving business environment (Doing Business). In addition, Netherlands has cancelled her assistance amounting to USD 40 million due to the conflict between a Netherlands investor and the Tembo Chip Board Industries of Tanzania. 21. Foreign assistance in the form of project grants for the second quarter was TShs billion, representing 74 percent of estimated Tshs billion and 26 percent higher than that in 2008/09. The trend shows that majority of the projects

11 financed through this modality started benefiting from these funds in the second quarter of the year. 22. Basket support grants for the quarter amounted to Tshs billion and on cumulative basis, total disbursements under this modality was Tshs billion, being 9 percent above estimates for the six month. Year on year comparison suggests that there was 35 percent increase from 2008/09. There was Tshs 13.5 billion utilization of debt relief funds under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) during six month of the year 2009/10. Figure 3 below presents foreign assistance disbursements in the form of grants. 700 Foreign Grants July - December In Billion Shillings Programme Grants Project Grants Basket Support Grants MDRI s s July-Dec 2008/ The overall deficit financed during the first half of the year was Tshs 1,012 billion and mainly through foreign loans. Total foreign financing for July December 2009 was Tshs 1,000 billion and the balance was net domestic financing. Of the foreign financing, major categories were Tshs billion from budget support loans and Tshs billion from project loans.

12 24. Budget support loan performed at 92 percent of their estimates for the six month, and indicates an increase of 79 percent over the corresponding period in 2008/09. The shortfall was partly due to the reduction of commitments by IDA and the disbursement from Japan received in early January Total basket support loans amounted to Tshs 91.1 billion, being 74 percent of estimate for half year to December Net domestic financing (NDF) registered a total drawdown of deposits of Tshs 11.9 billion during the first half of the year, well within the performance benchmark projected under the IMF - PSI Programme. Details of financing by major components are presented in Annex D, and figure 4 below shows the summary of financing for July December Foreign Financing July - December In Billion Shillings Programme Loans Project Loans Basket Support Loans Amortisation foreign Net Domestic Financing s s July-Dec 2008/09

13 LIKELY OUTTURN TO JUNE Macroeconomic developments indicate that the growth in Gross Domestic Products (GDP) will be broadly in line with initial projection, notwithstanding the slower than expected recovery in economic activities. However, the trend in inflation suggests that the year to June 2010 will close at a double digit level. 28. The performance in domestic revenue collections for the first half of the year indicates a shortfall of 9 percent compared to estimates. Efforts are being made to ensure that second half performance offsets part of the underperformances experienced during the six months to December In this regard, the year 2009/10 is expected to close with an overall domestic revenue performance of around 95 percent of the budget estimates. On the other hand, the performance in general budget support is expected to be broadly in line with budget estimates on account of the expected additional disbursements from the World Bank (IDA) in the form of Supplementary PSRC The programming of expenditure will be made cautiously in line with the developments in resource envelope in the remaining half to June Thus, it is expected that expenditure performance will be consistent with the availability of budgetary resources.

14 Annex A Summary of Central Government OperationsJuly-December 2009 In Billion Shillings Budget July - December 2009 Percent of Oct - Dec 2008/09 Year on year % change Percent of Estimat e July - December 2008/09 Year on year % change Total Domestic Revenue (Inc LGAs Own Sour 5, , , , , , , Domestic Revenue 5, , , % 1, % 2, , % 2, % Tax Revenue 4, , , % 1, % 2, , % 2, % Taxes on Imports % % % % Taxes on Domestic Sales % % % % Income Tax % % % % Other taxes % % % % Net refunds % % % % Non tax revenue % % % % LGA Own Source Total Expenditure 8, , , % 1, % 4, , % 3, % Recurrent expenditure (Excl. CFS) 5, % % 2, , % 1, % Wages & salaries(central & Local Gov't) 1, % % % % Goods and services and Transfers 3, % % 1, , % % TRA % % % % Parastatal wages % % % % Retention scheme % % % % Other goods and services 2, % % 1, , % % Development Expenditure 2, % % 1, % 1, % Local % % % % Foreign % % % % Interest payment % % % % Domestic % % % % Foreign % % % % CFS (Other) % % % % Overall Deficit (before grants) -3, % % -1, , % % Grants 2, % % % % Programme % %

15 Revenue Performance July - December 2009 Budget s % of Oct - Dec s 2008/09 Year on Year % Change Annex B Billion Shillings July - December 2009 Year on % of July - Dec Year % s 2008/09 Change Revenue Including LGAs 5, , , % % 2, , % % Revenue 5, % % % % Tax Revenue 4, % % % % Taxes on Imports 1, % % % % Import Duty % % % % Petroleum Excise % % % % Others % % % % Excise % % % % VAT on Non-Petroleum imports % % % % Taxes on Domestic Sales 1, % % % % Excise % % % % Value Added Tax (VAT) % % % % Income Tax 1, % % % % PAYE % % % % Corporate and Parastatals % % % % Individuals % % % % Withholding Taxes % % % % Rental Tax % % % % Other Income % % % % Other Taxes % % % % Business Skill Development Levy % % % % Fuel Levy and transit fee % % % % Stamp Duty % % % % Departure Service Charges % % % % Motor vehicle taxes % % % % Treasury Voucher Cheque % % % % Livestock Development Levy % % % Refunds % % % % Refunds - VAT % % % % Refunds - other % % % % Non Tax Revenue % % % % Parastatal Dividends % % % % Other Treasury collections % % % % Ministries and Regions % % % % TRA Non Tax % 2.6-3% % 4.9 6% LGAs own source N/A N/A Source: Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs

16 Annex C Expenditure by Category July December 2009 (in billions of Tshs) Budget Expenditure Percent of Oct - Dec 2008/09 Year on Year % Change Expenditure July - December 2009 Percent of July - Dec 2008/09 Year on Year % Change Total Expendjture 8, , , % 1, % 4, , % 3, % Recurrent Expendjture (Excl. CFS) 5, , , % % 2, , % 1, % Wages and salaries 1, % % % % Goods, services and transfers 3, % % 1, , % % TRA % % % % Fuel Levy % % % % Parastatal wages % % % % Retention scheme % % % % Retrenchm ent costs Other goods and services 2, % % 1, , % % Transfer to Zanzibar % % TANESCO (IPTL) % % - Treasury Voucher Scheme % % % % Other charges 2, (0.6) , , % Development Expenditure 2, % % 1, , % 1, % Domestic % % % % Foreign 1, % % , % % o/w basket grants % % % % o/w basket loans % % % o/w MCA (T)- USA % % Interest % % % % Domestic % % % % Foreign % % % % CFS others % % % % Source: Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs

17 Foreign Grants and Financing July - December 2009 Annex D In Million TShs October-Dec 2009 July-December 2009 Budget s Percent of estimate Oct - Dec 2008/09 Year on year % change Percent of estimate July - Dec 2008/09 Year on year % change Overall deficit before grants (3,628.2) (898.7) (1,158.7) 128.9% (1,158.7) (1,158.7) (1,880.9) (2,036.6) 108.3% (620.5) 228.2% Grants 2, % , % % Programme % Project % % % Basket Support % % % MDRI (IMF) % MCC(T)- USA Overall deficit after grants (1,537.3) (418.7) (792.9) 189% (792.9) (792.9) (574.0) (1,079.6) 188% (164.7) 555% Expenditure Float #DIV/0! Overall Balance (2,098.7) (520.3) (577.9) 111% (577.9) (577.9) (898.2) (1,159.1) 129% (174.0) 566% Financing 2, % , % % Foreign (net) 1, % % % Programme (Loans) % Project (Loans) % % % Basket Support Amortisation Foreign (outflow) % % % Domestic (net) 1, % % % Bank Borrowing / % % % Non-Bank Borrowing Borrowing/Roll over /2, Amortisation of contingent debt % 0.0 Dom estic amortisation/rollover Privatisation proceeds Source: Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs

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