Investment Bulletin. Global Economy. Content

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1 Investment Bulletin Content Global Economy 1 Bond 3 Global Equities 5 Currency 6 Global Economy UK In the UK, high frequency data indicated that domestic economy was mixed. On the one hand, real wage growth was improving, but other economic indicators showed some signs of moderation. Unemployment rate stayed at 4.1% in latest month and number of employment increased more than market expectation suggesting that labour market remained strong. Retail sales ex auto fuel came in better than economists forecast as real wage growth supported household sentiment. Meanwhile, GDP growth slowed to 0.4 percent from 0.6 percent in the three months through October as Brexit uncertainty weighed on manufacturing and industrial sectors. Looking ahead, unemployment rate and real wage growth should be the key indicators to gauge the health of domestic economy. T he Fed raised interest rate as expected. But its outlook for interest rate hikes turned a bit more dovish: the median interest rate forecast Dot now looks for two hikes in 2019, down from three at the September meeting. Given US s stable economic outlook, some further gradual increases in interest rate is highly likely. After Xi-Trump meeting in Argentina, China has resumed purchases of US agricultural products and cut tariffs on US cars, with the US postponing a planned tariff hikes. This shows the willingness of the two sides to reach a deal. The Federal government has partially shut down as Congress failed to pass spending legislation. Government shutdown is nothing new to US; if history is of any guide, the impact of government shutdown towards the economy should be limited. Japan Despite recovering from natural disasters earlier in the year, Japan s economy continued to face headwinds from global uncertainties. Recent factory output and exports growth deteriorated, probably reflecting the weaker demand from China and a fading technology boom. Meanwhile sinking oil prices put downward pressure on inflation. Possible fallout from the US- China trade war, the threat of US imposing tariffs on Japanese autos would continue to cloud domestic economic outlook. Yet actual capital expenditure and future capex plan were holding up well, suggesting positive corporate sentiment would likely provide some buffer to encounter the soft external environment. Europe The Federal Reserve has flagged a hard Brexit and Italian sovereign debt sell-off as near-term risks to the US financial system, in a broad-ranging assessment of the country s financial stability. European Banking Authority warned that European banks should have effective contingency planning and inform their customers for the risk of an abrupt departure by Britain from the European Union. At the same time, Fitch warned a nodeal Brexit would almost certain to trigger UK rating cut after Britain s rating cut happened in the wake of the 2016 Brexit vote from AA+ to AA. With respect to economic sentiment, the latest consumer confidence index came in at -6.2 in December from -3.9 in November. Latest Eurozone PMI came in at 51.4, falling from 51.8 in November. 1

2 Asia Asia macro environment remained stable yet moderated further. Capital investments and consumer spending continued to shrink along with softening growth expectations, while the disappointment in the latest reading of exports and manufacturing data seemed to confirm the downtrend. With growing external challenges, domestic policy responses have become the key focus in the hope to cushion any potential negative impacts. Against such macro backdrop, all Asian central banks stayed on hold, except for Thailand which delivered the first rate hike in the last 7 years, seeking to ward off risks stemming from a prolonged period of low rates, yet tilting towards a more dovish stance with a less optimistic economic forecasts along with other policy makers in the region. Australia In Australia, recent GDP figures highlighted slower momentum in the economy. Third quarter GDP slowed to 0.3% and marked the weakest quarter of economic growth since September 2016 as falling house prices started to impact on household spending and housing construction. Labour market showed some signs of moderation as unemployment rate ticked up to 5.1% and employment gains was driven by part-time jobs. Trade surplus also came in lower than market expectation in latest month as drought in Australia impacted on rural exports. Looking ahead, consumer confidence and labour market condition should be monitored closely to assess the sustainability of a consumer led recovery. Hong Kong Hong Kong exports disappointed in November. There could be front-loading impact in previous months, as firms rushed out shipments to beat planned tariff hikes. On the other hand, tourist arrivals was strong in November driven by Mainland Chinese visitors travelling through the newly-opened Hong Kong-Zhuhai -Macao Bridge and Cross-border high-speed railway. Hong Kong interbank rates increased sharply during the month. In spite of another rate hike from US, Hong Kong banks did not follow. Property market sentiment was rekindled by a largescale primary launch at relatively aggressive pricing. However, secondary market sentiment remained sluggish. China The front-loading activities ahead of US tariff hike got a hiccup. Export growth slumped from 15.5% in October to 5.4% in November. The external demand was weak which could be seen as well from the soft manufacturing PMI and industrial production growth. The good news was that the US and China agreed to a 90-day truce on 1st December, so the planned US tariff hike is postponed to 2nd March However, exporters may experience even more pressures as the front-loading activities are less urgent now. Meanwhile, import growth tanked to 3.0% in November from the previous 20.8% and retail sales growth dropped 5 ppts in the month of 11/11 shopping events. These two downward surprises suggested that China s consumption moderated. Lately, PBoC announced a new tool TMLF to provide banks lower-cost liquidity. We believe it would support the borrowings of private companies, who have been hurt badly by the deleveraging campaign. 12-month onshore RMB forwards at end-december suggested the RMB to appreciate 0.4%, while they suggested the same at end- November. (US) Given US s stable economic outlook, some further gradual increases in interest rate is highly likely. 2

3 Bond U S Treasury was well supported by heightened market volatility towards the end of year Despite normal holiday season quietness, US market volatility spiked up and led US Treasury to rally. Although Sino-US trade dispute was put to a halt at the G20 meeting, market remained doubtful if trade negotiation would be a successful one within the agreed 90-day period. On economic fundamental front, data began to show some softness. US employment report in November came in softer than expected, with new jobs creation missed market forecast and wage growth moderated. 10-year US Treasury yield traded sharply lower. Market sentiment weakened further on softer global economic data. As widely expected, US Fed raised rate by 25bps after the December FOMC meeting with the projected Fed Fund rate revised slightly lower for year However, the Fed is keeping the pace of balance sheet reduction. The concern about tightening financial condition triggered sell-off of risk assets and US Treasury continued to benefit from elevated volatility. US Federal Government shutdown as the Congress failed to pass legislation to allocate funds also fueled the rally of US Treasury. In all, 10-year US Treasury yield traded lower by 30 bps and concluded the month at 2.68%. UK In the UK, economic indicators were mixed. Retail sales, supported by strong labor market conditions, continued to do well. However, business confidence remained subdue with mounting concern over no deal Brexit. On political front, despite that EU leaders approved the UK withdrawal treaty, Theresa May announced to postpone the Parliament vote to mid-january as the agreement reached is unlikely to gain enough support. UK gilts rallied in tandem with peers with curve flattened. 10-Year gilt yield fell by 9 basis points to 1.28%. Japan Japan Government bonds (JGB) advanced for a second month in December. Bond yields declined following the moves of their overseas peers, as lingering Sino-US trade tensions alongside plummeting oil prices and weaker data from China prompted global growth concerns fueling risk aversion among investors. Domestically, mixed data flows plus the cautious rhetoric by various Bank of Japan s (BoJ) board members highlighting uncertainty to the Japanese economy further added to bond strength, with yield of the 10-year tenor once plummeting to negative, albeit the central bank s continued attempts to trim its bond purchases at its regular operations. (Europe) Growth indicators continued to surprise on the downside while inflation prospect was undermined by sharp fall in oil prices. Europe In the Eurozone, bond yields in the region extended the falling trend as macro uncertainty remained elevated. Growth indicators continued to surprise on the downside while inflation prospect was undermined by sharp fall in oil prices. Brexit negotiations remained pending as the parliamentary vote was postponed while political impasse in Italy eased. On policy front, ECB, as expected, announced to conclude the assets purchase program. It also pledged to reinvest at least past through the first rate hike. German bund rates, supported by safe-haven-buying, fell in the second consecutive month. 10-Year benchmark rate fell 7 basis points to 0.24%. France government bond underperformed as the Yellowvest protests hit government s approval rate and market sentiment. Italian bond, in contrast, outperformed significantly as Rome and Brussels struck a major political compromise to avoid implementing Excess Deficit Procedure against Italy. 10-Year Italian bond yield fell by 47 basis points to 2.74%. 3

4 Australia Australian Government Bond markets (ACGB) showed strength in December. Adverse geopolitical headlines, heightened worries of trade wars, plummeting oil prices as well as softening data flows from China put investors on edge whilst fueling flight-to-quality moves supporting local bonds. Exaggerating the move was the surprisingly weak the third quarter GDP print domestically, which dashed hopes for policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the year ahead, together with the headlines over weakening housing markets which piled pressure on already shaky local stocks. All these placed downward pressure to local bond yields, in particular those in the longer-ends. Yield curve flattened, with the 10-year ACGB yield falling to a two year low below the 2.40% level. Hong Kong Front-end interbank borrowing costs surged in Hong Kong, narrowing the gap with the U.S. equivalent, as local banks were seen to hoard cash for year-end checks and prepare for possible hikes in interest rates during the month. The 1-month interbank funding cost, known as HIBOR, jumped more than one percentage point to the high of % in mid-december. However, tighter funding conditions posted little impact to the local bond markets, where yields fell significantly in tandem with their U.S. counterparts. Meanwhile, the local currency stayed hovering at above 7.81/USD, closing the month with minimal changes. On policy front, Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) raised its Base rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in lockstep with the rate-hike action in the U.S. China Markit iboxx ALBI China Offshore Bond Index (Investment grade overall) recorded positive return in December, benefitting from relatively higher interest income and stabilizing currency. Global bond market rally, stabilization of the currency and potential policy stimulus in China help supporting Dim Sum bonds. The relatively high interest income from Dim Sum bonds remain the main supporting factor. The further weakening of economic activities in China prompted speculation of more fiscal stimulus and liquidity injection. However, softer economic data in China and signs of capital outflow continue to pressure on the currency and offshore bond. 4

5 Global Equities US Major US stock market indices fell significantly in the last month of 2018, although obvious sign of a general slowing in US economic activity was not evident. The third quarter GDP, housing, and job market remained strong. However, The Fed revised down its outlook for future rate hikes in 2019 which was less-dovish than expected, driving the equity market to fall further. Lack of major macroeconomic news led to higher volatility in markets. Moving into 2019, volatile market would remain as investors would continue to find the market direction and downside risk might increase due to projections for further interest rate hikes. Europe European equity markets registered negative performance in December of Italy equities outperformed while Belgium equities underperformed among the European markets. Regarding sector-wise performance in HKD term, Utilities outperformed most while Consumer Services underperformed during the period. UK UK equity market dropped last month as deterioration in the outlook of global economic growth and subdued crude oil prices weighed on investors sentiment. Financial Services and Energy related sectors dropped and led the market lower due to gloomy global economic outlook. Meanwhile, Basic Materials sector traded higher and outperformed the broader market as iron ore prices recovered from the weakness in previous month. Going forward, political development in the country and growth prospect in Europe would be the key risk to UK equities. Japan Japan equity market fell significantly in December along with most other major markets. Rising concerns of a global economic downturn and JPY gains against USD further weighed down the index. Continuous decline in oil price led the Energy sector to underperform the most again this month. Moving into 2019, volatility would likely continue as the headwinds of moderating global growth and trade disputes might persist. Recession risks remained low, as profit growth was sustainable and valuations have already contracted. Asia Asia equities fell back in the red this month after a temporary rebound in November, ending the quarter in the negative territory. A temporary 90-day truce of trade war agreed between the U.S. and China was unable to dismiss market skepticism as tension again escalated following the arrest of the senior executive from a major Chinese technology company, alleged of violating the U.S. sanctions. A growing expectation of a global economic downturn and a shrinking demand continued to weigh on investor sentiments, adding more downward pressure to the already volatile equities markets. In the near term, rising uncertainties over global trade, geopolitical tensions and actions by the major Central banks would likely add to the cloudiness of equities markets. Australia Australian equity market finished near flat last month as rally of mining stocks overshadowed a broad-based selling in the market. Metal stocks traded higher as iron ore prices recovered from the weakness in previous month. Meanwhile, Banks and Energy related stocks dropped and underperformed the broader market due to concerns of weaker global economic growth. Going forward, growth prospect of China s economy would be the key risk to Australian equities. Hong Kong Hang Seng index was on a downtrend in December, closing the year in negative territory. Sino-US trade truce was struck with a predetermined negotiation period, but the arrest of a top Chinese technology executive dented market sentiment. China announced more rounds of tariff cuts, lowering taxes on a wide range of goods with effect from the first day of Chinese government also vowed to provide stronger monetary and fiscal stimulus, as economic data continued to disappoint. The Utilities Sub-index outperformed, as global capital market uncertainty triggered demand for safe haven assets. The Commerce and Industry Sub-index underperformed. Oil names retreated as oil prices tumbled. China Major mainland equity indices receded in December with several indices refreshed their year-end closing low back to 2014 level. Concern of global economic growth deceleration, US-led global market weakness, and the softness of several China macro data during the month were the main drag. Partly because of the different year-end closing date, the slight rebound in Hong Kong market on December 31st helped both Hang Seng H-share and Red-chip Index to marginally outperform their mainland peers with a lesser decline. The strengthening of an Information Technology giant along with the advance of a handful heavyweights from the Telecom, Banks, and Property related sectors contributed the slight outperformance. (Hong Kong) Hang Seng index was on a downtrend in December, closing the year in negative territory. 5

6 Currency Yen Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened in December. Risk aversion sentiment prevailed, as adverse geopolitical headlines, heightened worries of trade wars, plummeting oil prices as well as softening data flows from China put investors on edge whilst promoting safe-haven buying for JPY. Adding to the currency strength was the threat of a U.S. government shutdown alongside falling U.S. Treasury bond yields which capped gains of the greenback. The currency finally settled itself at / USD, with a monthly advance of 3.57%. U SD continue to trade in range in December. The ongoing Sino-US trade friction news flow, heightened risk assets volatility and rising global growth concern were all drivers for USD move. On one hand, USD weakened on softer than expected US employment report and lower US Treasury yield. On the other hand, USD was buoyed by weakening economic data from Europe and China. Brexit negotiation also support the USD. Despite the Fed decision to hike rate in December, USD weakened on rising US equity volatility. During the month, USD strengthened and marked another year high at in mid-december but concluding the month at 96.17, down by 1.13% on a month on month basis. RMB Onshore (CNY) and Offshore (CNH) Renminbi remained largely stable and continue to trade stronger against US dollar in December. The overall weakness of USD due to heightened market volatility supported the currency. The continuous news flow on US-China trade dispute also dictated the movement of the currency. Despite worsening economic data and capital outflows, the speculation of further stimulus by the government lent support to the currency. All in all, RMB official fixing appreciated by 1.06% and concluded the month at Onshore and Offshore RMB also traded firmer against USD by 1.19% and 1.17% to and respectively. Euro In the Eurozone, the common currency traded in a tight range for the first half of the month. It saw a strong support at $1.13 level despite disappointing economic indicators and lingering political uncertainty. Towards month end, Euro strengthened as USD weakened on uncertain economic and monetary policy prospect. As such, Euro rallied to $ and concluded the month with 1.33% gain. Sterling In the UK, political uncertainty continued to weigh on Sterling. Despite that UK government reached an agreement on withdrawal treaty with the Eurozone, Sterling weakness persisted as UK government failed to secure enough support for the deal in the Parliament. Meanwhile, Theresa May survived an internal challenge that rendered little support to Sterling. In consequence, Sterling recorded little change but underperformed European peers. 6

7 Important Information Investment involves risks and is subject to market fluctuations and inherent risks. Investment in emerging markets involves special risks and considerations. Investors could face no returns and/or suffer significant loss related to the investments. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable and has not been independently verified. BOCI-Prudential Asset Management Limited makes no representation, warranty or undertaking, whether express or implied, in relation to the information, opinions or projections have been based, and will not be responsible for damages arising out of any person s reliance upon this document. Information, opinions and projections in this document reflect a judgment at its original date of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information, opinions and projections contained herein are for reference only. The manager s comment above solely reflects the opinion, view and interpretation of the fund managers as of the date of issuance of this document. Investors should not solely rely on such information, opinions and projections to make any investment decision. Investors should seek independent financial and professional advice as appropriate before making any investment decision. This document should not be reproduced or further distributed to any person or entities, whether in whole or in part, for any purposes. This document does not constitute any distribution, or any recommendation, offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell any investment. This document is issued by BOCI-Prudential Asset Management Limited and has not been reviewed by the SFC. 7