Colliers STATUS Colliers international denmark > spring 2011

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1 Colliers STATUS Colliers international denmark > Spring 11

2 COLLIERS STATUS DENMARK INVESTMENT spring 11 EXCHANGE RATES (JANUARY 11) DKK per 1 units foreign currency EUR > 7. USD >. GBP > 8.88 SEK > 8.7 NOK > 9. INVESTMENT More transactions with investment properties INCREASING DEMAND FROM INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS MARKET BAROMETER Q1 11 YIELD (%) FOR PRIME LOCATIONS Source: Colliers MarkedsPULS Office Retail Industry and logistic Copenhagen. %. % 7. % Aarhus. %. % 7. % Odense. %. % 8. % Aalborg. %. % 7. % -area (Vejle). %. % 7.7 % Esbjerg. %. % 7.7 % RENT DEVELOPMENT IN DENMARK Source: Nationalbanken month money market interest rate Bond rate 1 year government bond The last part of 1 showed an increase in the transactions with investment properties. Seasonal variation is completely common but the increase in 1 was very significant compared to 8 and 9. This gives rise to optimism in the investment market. The new expectation study from the Danish Property Federation also shows that investors expect slight increases in future values. During the last six months the institutional investors have started buying again. They look for primary located office properties and mixed city properties amongst others. Prices on these sorts of property are on the same level as before the financial crisis. In the last couple of years there have been very few transactions of this type so the crisis has resulted in an absence of transactions rather than a change in prices. Also in contrast to the previous crisis lenders have held on to suffering properties this time in stead of having a fire sale. Now, however, lenders are beginning to see their chances and consider putting the properties on the market. The institutional investors also show great interest in centrally located residential projects. Here prices are determined according to how much the property can subsequently be sold for as owner-occupied flats. There is thus focus on the sq m price and not just yield. Generally there is also continued demand for retail properties that generate nice, steady returns as well as residential properties that are also popular amongst private investors. There are still large differences between primary and secondary properties. Secondary location industry and logistic properties are currently very difficult to sell to investors almost regardless of price. Irrespective of the increasing number of transactions the market is still cautious. As mentioned primary located properties with good tenants are popular but for other types of properties the focus is still on risk rather than potential. The interest rate is still low but lenders are relatively reluctant to grant loans. It is possible to be granted loans for quality properties especially

3 COLLIERS STATUS DENMARK INVESTMENT spring 11 VACANCY FOR OFFICES AND RESIDENCIES Source: Oline-Lokalebørs Statistikken, Statistics Denmark and Danish Property Federation Office Residental Retail Industrial Note: The number of vacant residencies is defined as residencies without personal registration. That includes all year houses used as summer residence, residencies under construction etc. ANNUAL REAL GDP GROWTH Source: Statistics Denmark are expected numbers. 8 if the borrower s financial situation is healthy. When selling suffering properties financing is still an impediment. Here it is often simplest to be granted new loans from the same place. Some transactions are made difficult by the many different loans in the same property and transactions are generally time consuming. After a summer where bond interest fell the interest has increased.8 percentage points since August 1. The same tendency has been showing for the money market interest, which was at.87 per cent in December 1. VACANCY FOR OFFICE PROPERTIES IS DECREASING The latest vacancy numbers for retail, residence and industry and logistic properties show a continued increase. Office properties stand out as vacancy has decreased by. percentage points in Q1 11. This recent decrease in vacancy for office properties comes after an increase of. percentage points from the beginning of 7 to the end of 1. OPTIMISM ABOUT THE ECONOMY The Danish economy showed signs of improvement in 1 with growth throughout the year. The total growth in 1 is estimated to be. per cent which is a significant improvement compared to the negative growth of. per cent in 9. In 11 growth of 1.9 per cent is expected. With the expected growth rates it will be some time before total activity is back on the level we saw before the crisis. So the recession has not been succeed by a strong boom, however, growth has returned and a new recession is no longer feared. Growth has been kick started by public spending but also by inventory build ups. Private consumption has on the other hand been relatively modest despite tax breaks. This could stem from the risk of unemployment, which is now stable at around.1 per cent. This level is fairly low both historically and compared to other countries but still high compared to what the Danes got accustomed to during the boom. Real growth in exports from 9 to 1 has been. per cent. It seems like the last year s increase in world trade is catching wind domestically. This increase is supported by relatively high growth levels in Germany and Sweden our two most important trade partners A number of European countries are, however, still struggling after the crisis. During 1 focus was finally directed at the great imbalances in the eurozone where several deficit countries experienced sovereign debt crises. Both Greece and Ireland received substantial help packages from EU-members, the European Central Bank and the IMF Domestically the government has for some time tried to boost demand with relatively large public spending. Now that growth has been kick started the goal is to balance public budgets. The discussion once again revolves around the challenge of a decreasing labour force and the increasing number of elderly people in the future as well as how to keep expenses down in general. Monetary policy is still expansive with low interest rates. Interest rates are expected to increase but not for a while. Inflation is kept under a watchful eye. In Denmark the consumer prices are expected to increase by. per cent in 1 compared to 1. per cent in 9. Much of this inflation comes from increasing oil prices and taxes.

4 COLLIERS STATUS DENMARK INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS spring 11. INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS Great demand for small premises. 7.. ALMOST NO CHANGE IN VACANCY Since last quarter the vacancy for industry and logistic properties are almost unchanged. On a national scale it is up.1 percentage point. This increase comes from increases in Central Jutland as well as West and South Zealand. Compared to the level one year ago vacancy is up 1.1 percentage point..7 East Jutland has the highest level of vacancy with 7. per cent. The neighbouring region North Jutland has. per cent vacancy INCREASING DEMAND FOR PROPERTIES The demand for industry and logistic properties is steadily increasing. It is still smaller properties that are mostly demanded. Both new companies and smaller, existing companies are looking for properties. VACANCIES FOR INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS PER REGION JANUARY 1ST 11 (PER CENT) Source: Oline-Lokalebørs Statistikken There is not the same level of demand for larger properties, though a few major leases and transactions are seen. Even though large companies are going through a transition period location is seemingly not changed. Moving is often postponed in order to avoid risk and also to postpone capital expenses until future needs are clearer. Because of the limited demand market rent is under some pressure. In some places rent is lowered in order to avoid long letting processes. In other places it is mainly conditions that are being negotiated.

5 COLLIERS STATUS DENMARK INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS spring 11 VACANCY FOR INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS IN DENMARK Source: Oline-Lokalebørs Statistikken January 11:. per cent EMPLOYMENT AND VACANCY FOR INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS Source: Oline-Lokalebørs Statistikken and Statistics Denmark (1, persons) (),.,9.,9.,8..,8.,7 1.,7 1.,., Employment left axis Vacancy industrial and logistics right axis If users are able and willing to use less marketable properties without the best location it is possible to get a great deal by purchasing property since investors are not currently buying this type of property. The development in vacancy for industry and logistic properties is inversely linked with the trend in employment such that higher employment levels will put a downwards pressure on vacancy. Employment fell by 1, people between Q and Q 1. Vacancy correspondingly increased by. percentage points. At the beginning of Q1 11 a further.1 percentage point increase in vacancy to. per cent can be seen. When employment increases a fall in vacancy is likely. MARKET BAROMETER Q1 11 Modern properties for industry and logistics by location Source: Colliers MarkedsPULS Market rent (DKK per sq m per year operations not included) Prime location Standard location Poor location Copenhagen DKK / DKK / DKK 7/ Aarhus DKK 7/ DKK / DKK / Odense DKK 7/ 7 DKK / DKK / 7 Aalborg DKK 7/ DKK / DKK / -area (Vejle) DKK / DKK / DKK / 7 Esbjerg DKK / DKK / DKK / 7 Yield (%) Prime location Standard location Poor location Copenhagen 7. % 7.7 % 8.7 % Aarhus 7. % 7.7 % 8. % Odense 8. % 8.7 % 9. % Aalborg 7. % 8. % 8.7 % -area (Vejle) 7.7 % 8. % 8.7 % Esbjerg 7.7 % 8. % 8.7 %

6 COLLIERS STATUS DENMARK OFFICE Mindste spring 11 Højeste OFFICE.1 Renewed interest for office projects DECREASE OF VACANCY The vacancy for office properties is as of January 1st per cent. Compared to the level three months ago vacancy has decreased by. percentage point from 8. per cent in October 1. Measured in sq m there has been a national decrease of,8 sq m since the last quarter. This is especially significant in the Capital Region where vacancy fell by 7, sq m MUCH ACTIVITY ON THE OFFICE MARKET There is high demand for office properties since both small and large companies wish to move to new premises. Both in Copenhagen and Aarhus a number of major leases are currently in the making including some to different public authorities. VACANCIES FOR OFFICES PER REGION JANUARY 1ST 11 (PER CENT) Construction costs are currently low due to the limited construction activity. This means that office projects are springing up. Not as speculative construction but for users that see possibilities of great location at competitive prices. Source: Oline-Lokalebørs Statistikken

7 COLLIERS STATUS DENMARK OFFICE spring 11 VACANCY FOR OFFICES IN DENMARK Source: Oline-Lokalebørs Statistikken January 11: 8.1 per cent Vacancy is still quite high nationally but varies a lot from one area to the next and also between city parts. Together with the low construction costs this means some pressure on market rent, which is decreasing slightly in some areas. There is, however, still a powerful tendency to pressure for better conditions included in the lease. This can include security of tenure, free parking, costs of furnishing etc. The market for office properties is traditionally very dependent of the overall economic situation especially the labour market. Employment fell by 1, people between Q and Q 1 and in this period vacancy increased by. percentage points. In Q1 11 vacancy has dropped. percentage points to 8.1 per cent. This suggests an increase in the employment in 11 that is not yet visible in the publicly made numbers. MARKET BAROMETER Q1 11 Modern properties for offices by location Source: Colliers MarkedsPULS Market rent (DKK per sq m per year operations not included) THE EMPLOYMENT AND THE VACANCY FOR OFFICES Source: Statistics Denmark and Oline-Lokalebørs Statistikken (1, persons) (), 9,9 8,9 7,8,8,7,7, 1, Employment left axis Vacancy offices right axis Prime location Standard location Poor location Copenhagen DKK 1,7/ 8 DKK 1,/ 18 DKK 1,1/ 18 Aarhus DKK 1,/ 17 DKK 1,1/ 1 DKK 9/ 11 Odense DKK 9/ 17 DKK 7/ 11 DKK / 8 Aalborg DKK 1,1/ 18 DKK 8/ 11 DKK 7/ 9 -area (Vejle) DKK 9/ 17 DKK 8/ 17 DKK 7/ 9 Esbjerg DKK 9/ 17 DKK 8/ 17 DKK 7/ 9 Yield (%) Prime location Standard location Poor location Copenhagen. %. %. % Aarhus. %. %. % Odense. % 7. % 8. % Aalborg. %.7 % 7. % -area (Vejle). %.7 % 7. % Esbjerg. %.7 % 7. % 7

8 COLLIERS STATUS DENMARK RETAIL spring RETAIL Optimism in retail 1.1 ALMOST NO CHANGE IN VACANCY Since last quarter the vacancy for retail properties is almost unchanged. On a national scale it is up.1 percentage point to. per cent. As the curve shows there has been a considerable rise of.7 percentage points since Q1 7 while the increase is only.8 percentage points compared to the situation one year ago. The increase has thus not been as steep in 1 as in 8-9. There are fewer vacancies in and around Copenhagen compared to the rest of the country. SMALL RETAIL STORES ARE POPULAR VACANCIES FOR SHOPS PER REGION JANUARY 1ST 11 (PER CENT) Source: Oline-Lokalebørs Statistikken The new year is marked by optimism in the retail industry. Christmas sales were satisfying and many people are now seeing brighter times ahead. The optimism also means increased demand for retail properties. But having learned from the last few years the demand is mostly for smaller properties. Businesses are targeting a higher turnover-ratio with small inventories. The increase in e-trade that is increasingly integrated with physical stores also boosts the demand for smaller properties. The most popular retail properties are currently between 1 and sq m. 8

9 COLLIERS STATUS DENMARK RETAIL spring 11 VACANCY FOR SHOPS IN DENMARK Source: Oline-Lokalebørs Statistikken 1 January 11:, per cent Market rent is still stable. On prime locations and for superior properties the market rent is not under pressure but on secondary locations and for large-scale leases the rent and other conditions in the lease are negotiated. Generally it is still retail chains that are in the market while there are fewer one-man stores. On Strøget in Copenhagen there are a number of new foreign chains that are looking to enter the Danish market to establish flagship stores to display their products. The consumers are fairly optimistic. In January 11 the consumer confidence indicator was.. The indicator thus continues on a slightly positive level. However, it has fallen to negative levels a couple of times over the last year MARKET BAROMETER Q1 11 Modern properties in central areas by location Source: Colliers MarkedsPULS THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND THE RETAIL SALE IN DENMARK Source: Statistics Denmark ( = index 1) Retail (seasonally adjusted quantity index) left axis Consumer expectation indicator right axis Market rent (DKK per sq m per year operations not included) Prime location Standard location Poor location Copenhagen DKK 18,/,1 DKK 1,/ 1.1 DKK,7/ 9 Aarhus DKK,/ 78 DKK,7/ 1 DKK,/ Odense DKK,/ 8 DKK,/ DKK 1,/ 11 Aalborg DKK,/ 7 DKK,/ DKK 1,7/ 198 -area (Vejle) DKK,/ 9 DKK,/ DKK 1,/ 18 Esbjerg DKK,/ DKK,/ DKK 1,/ 18 Yield (%) Prime location Standard location Poor location Copenhagen. %. %. % Aarhus. %. %.7 % Odense. %. %. % Aalborg. %.7 %. % -area (Vejle). %.7 %. % Esbjerg. %.7 %. % 9

10 COLLIERS STATUS DENMARK HOTEL AND LEISURE spring 11 NUMBER OF OVERNIGHT HOTEL GUESTS Source: Statistics Denmark Millions HOTEL AND LEISURE Increase in overnight guests improves optimism Denmark Foreigners Total The recession meant a decrease in demand for overnight stays in hotels, which hit a low level in 9. In 1 there was again a significant increase in the number of overnight guests so the number is almost back to the record levels of 7. Both Danish and foreign guests are coming back. At the same time there has been an increase in the number of hotels and hotel rooms. Especially in Copenhagen there has been great activity in hotel development. This means that the hotels have experienced decreasing occupancy rates and the market has been challenged. NUMBER OG HOTELS AND ROOMS IN DENMARK Source: Statistics Denmark Note: Only hotels with a minimum of rooms is registered Hotels left axis Hotel rooms right axis , 9, 7,,, 1, 9, 7,, 1 The general expectation to the hotel markets in Copenhagen is that the market will be influenced the coming years so that the hotels occupancy rates and revenue per accessible room (RevPar) will be challenged further. Hotels in Copenhagen are aware of the challenge and are trying to attract more customers by getting larger events to the capital and by multi branding in order to advertise through as many channels as possible e.g. chains, etc. The hotel market in Aarhus is different compared to Copenhagen. There has also been a decrease in occupancy rates but Aarhus generally needs more rooms and not at least larger conference facilities since Aarhus is currently missing larger events due to lack of facilities. There are already hotel projects underway in Aarhus including a new Scandic Hotel and the hotel chain Comwell has also announced their arrival. However, it is estimated that there will be a need for new hotels and luckily there are still attractive possible locations in Aarhus city centre and in the central harbour areas. Many other provincial towns are still suffering from the financial crisis. However, since the end of 1 there has been an increase in optimism about the development on the conference market.

11 COLLIERS STATUS DENMARK HOTEL AND LEISURE spring 11 OCCUPANCY RATES DANISH HOTELS Source: Statistics Denmark CONDITIONS FOR HOTEL INDUSTRY CAN STILL BE IMPROVED A continuing challenge for tourism in general and for the hotel and restaurant industry in particular is the disadvantageous VAT-conditions in Denmark compared to other EU countries. It would be beneficial for the competitiveness in Denmark if terms were equalled especially since the hotels operation costs are higher in Denmark than in many of the other EU countries. In connection to the public budget negotiations there was an approximation of the VAT-regulation compared to abroad but there is still some way to go before reaching an even playing field. In the continuing efforts to attract large events to Denmark and Copenhagen it is positive that there has been established a tourism think tank that seeks to unite the Danish tourism industry and facilitate increased growth in Danish tourism by analysis and thinking outside the box. Another initiative comes from HORESTA that is looking to unite Danish tourism in a domicile called Turismens hus Urban Copenhagen Metropolitan Copenhagen Denmark and Copenhagen have much to offer as a destination for large international events: Denmark East Jutland CASH FLOW IMPORTANT FOR THE VALUE In the current investment market it is critical for a hotel property s value that there is a sound tenant or operator. The running cash flow is weighted strongly since it provides security and liquidity of the investment. Large, well-consolidated hotel chains thus have a strong starting point when negotiating rent. Tenants/operators aware of this use their position to negotiate rent levels, and levels are thus under some pressure. Other conditions are also negotiated. > Family friendly country > High standard of living > Suitable business climate > Great infrastructure > Focus on environment > Security > Political freedom > Diverse culture Investors: Inestors yield for hotels: -1 per cent Operators: G.O.P. (Gross operating profit) Maximized rent: -7 per cent Turnover determined rent: Conference: 1- per cent Rooms: 1-8 per cent Food & beverage: 8-1 per cent Other earnings: -1 per cent The limited market for hotel investments is currently influenced by local, national and international investors. Return on investments (opportunity cost of capital) for hotel properties begin on app. per cent for prime locations and app. 1 per cent secondary locations. DEMAND FROM OPERATORS Unlike a general investor an operator will typically only have an attitude towards operational risks. Regardless, an operator s yield of capital will be somewhat higher. Operational budgets will typically be divided into an operations part and a property part. It is our estimate that the typical yield for an operator will be per cent on operations. This should be based on realised results or well-founded budgets. The yield on the property part follows the investor s general yield. The current demand from operators is primarily focused on prime locations in main cities. Outside these areas operators are typically unwilling to take on the full operational risk but will seek to make operational contracts without minimum payments. In the current market the large international hotel operators will only make management deals where the entire risk falls on the investor. In 1 Colliers International Danmark assisted in several transactions with medium sized hotels in the provinces as well as a farming out of a larger hotel. The buyers were private operators. 11

12 It is allowed to quote the report as long as source is stated. Decisions concerning real estate should always be evaluated thoroughly and all parts should thus examine the market in depth. Even though we have examined and tried the information in the report with great care Colliers International Denmark A/S disclaim any responsibility of losses based on information in this report. It is allowed to quote the report as long as source is stated. Decisions concerning real estate should always be evaluated thoroughly and all parts should thus examine the market in depth. Even though we have examined and tried the information in the report with great care Colliers International Denmark disclaim any responsibility of losses based on information in this report.