Asian Markets. News Highlights

Transcription

1 UOB Ecoomic-Treasury Research Compay Reg No Z Moday, 26 October 2009 Asia Markets Foreig Exchage Rates (as at 23 October 2009) As at 26 Oct Asia High Asia Low NY High NY Low SGD MYR IDR 9,420 9,510 9, THB PHP TWD KRW HKD CNY UOB s Estimatio of SGD NEER (as at 26 October 2009) Assumig 2.5% o each side of the pivot poit: Lower-Ed Upper-Ed Mid-Poit News Highlights Asia currecies were firmer agaist USD o Fri boosted by gais i the domestic stock markets, ad the release of some ecoomic data which stregtheed Asia's recovery process. KRW gaied 0.7% at 1,181.30/USD o Fri, as exporters sold their dollar holdigs, while the TWD remaied flat at /USD with exporter sales offset by foreig fud outflows. The HKD remaied at the top of its tradig bad eve as the HKMA sold HK$3.875 b durig the sessio. The HKMA has sold about HK$78 b this moth, a record high for I the regio, IDR rose 1.1% to 9,435/ USD as S&P raised the coutry's sovereig outlook to positive from stable, o implemetig a cautious fiscal policy ad pursuig ecoomic reforms. Idoesia presidet SBY also said that the ecoomy is expected to grow 4.3% this year ad 5% or more ext year. MYR eded 0.4% higher at 3.383/USD, eve as the 2010 budget did ot surprise the markets. PHP also closed 0.4% firmer lower at 46.98/USD o fud iflows. Followig the losses i the US idices o Fri ight, as well as a surprise cotractio i UK's GDP, risk-takig is expected to pull back, ad USD looks likely to stregthe. Ay upside i the Asia currecies will therefore be limited. USD/SGD stayed rage boud betwee i the Asia sessio o Fri, ad edged higher to ed at durig the Ld/NY sessio. The gais i SGD look likely to Ja USD/SGD USD/SGD Aug 05 SGD NEER USD/MYR USD/RMB May 06 Cetral Tedecy Upper-ed: 2.5% Lower-ed: 2.5% Ja 07 Sep 07 Ju 08 Mid-poit of Estimated Policy Bad Upper-ed Mar 09 Lower-ed Ja 03 Mar 04 May 05 Aug 06 Oct 07 Mar 09 Sep 08 Nov 08 Ja 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09 Sep 09

2 Asia Markets Moday, 26 October 2009 p2 be capped today, with USD probably stregtheig o some risk aversio. S$NEER was tradig at 0.9% above the mid-poit this morig, ad a rage of is expected today, correspodig to S$NEER betwee 0.5%- 1.0% above the policy mid-poit i our model. RMB eded higher o a lack of demad for USD. I the spot market, RMB rose to vs /USD o Thur. RMB slid slightly i the NDF market, with the 1Y pricig i 2.7% RMB appreciatio agaist USD, dow from 2.8% o Thur. The PBoC fixed the cetral parity at /USD this morig. Asia stocks climbed higher o Fri, boosted by oil stocks o the back of a icrease i crude oil prices, as well as automakers ad bak couters. The Nikkei rose 0.2% while the Hag Seg Idex jumped 1.7%.The Kospi gaied 0.6% ad Taiex was 0.5% higher. The Shaghai CI led with a 1.9% rally. I the regioal markets, the STI eded 1.2% up, with 1.6b shares chagig hads. The Philippies idex also closed higher by 1.5%. Asia stocks look likely to track losses i the US stock idices o Fri ight. South Korea's 3Q GDP grew at a faster-tha-expected rate of 2.9% q/q s/adj, ad +0.6% y/y, the first y/y growth i 4 quarters. The expasio was drive by higher idustrial output of chips ad automobiles, private cosumptio ad facility ivestmet. Iterest Rates Curret Next CB Meet UOB s Forecast SGD 3-Mth SIBOR 0.69% - - MYR O/N Policy Rate 2.00% 28 Oct 2.00% IDR O/N Rate 6.50% 04 Nov 6.50% THB 1-Day Repo 1.25% 21 Oct 1.25% PHP O/N Reverse Repo 4.00% 02 Dec 4.00% TWD Discout Rate 1.25% % KRW Base Rate 2.00% 12 Nov 2.00% HKD Base Rate 0.50% % CNY 1-Yr Wkig Capital 5.31% % Stock Idices (as at 23 October 2009) Closig % chg Sigapore Straits Times Kuala Lumpur Composite Jakarta Composite Bagkok SET - - Philippies Composite Taiwa TAIEX Seoul Composite Hog Kog Hag Seg Shaghai SE Composite IX Mumbai Sesex STI Hog Kog's Moetary Authority's deputy chief executive, Y K Choi said that HK's luxury property market is overheated as prices have exceeded the peaks i 1997, thus promptig the HKMA to impose a ceilig o high ed mortgages of 60%, istead of 70% previously. The loa-to- value ratio for residetial properties below HK$20 m value will remai at 70% KLCI Chia's urba registered jobless rate stayed level at 4.3% at the ed of Sep, ad looks likely to maitai till the ed of the year m workers registered i urba areas are uemployed. The jobless rate rose to 4.3% at the ed of Mar from 4.2% at the ed of Dec SET HSI Jul 08 Oct 08 Ja 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09

3 Asia Markets Moday, 26 October 2009 p3 East Asia Summit i Thailad: A summit statemet said Asia coutries should club together to boost their ifluece o the global fiacial stage. Chia will start ivestig i ifrastructure i Asea coutries this year, with fud-raisig of $1 b of the $10 b Chia-Asea ivestmet fud almost fiished. Chiese Premier We Jiabao reiterated that Chia will ot exit its curret ecoomic stimulus policies, eve as its ecoomy expaded 8.9% i 3Q. A free-trade agreemet betwee Australia, New Zealad ad Southeast Asia will start o Ja , which will elimiate tariffs o 96% of Australia exports to SEA, compared to 67% of exports that are curretly free of tariffs. Sigapore Data preview (26 Oct): Sigapore's IP probably cotracted 8% m/m ad declied 3% y/y, reversig the 12.3% y/y growth i the previous moth. Sep's PMI data slipped to 50.6 from 54.4, showig that eve as the maufacturig idustry is still growig, it is doig so at a slower pace. Both electroics ad biomedical productio probably did ot expad as quickly. Data focus: Malaysia 2010 budget: The Malaysia govermet aouced a less expasioary-tha-expected budget for 2010 with the budget deficit expected to arrow sharply to aroud 5.6% of GDP ext year from a estimated 7.4% i 2009 (dow slightly from its origial target of 7.6%). The deficit target for 2010 is sharply lower tha our iitial forecast of 7% of GDP. This was based o assumptio of 13.7% cut i operatig expediture ad a smaller 4.4% cut i developmet expediture while reveue is expected to drop by 8.4% i I lie with our expectatio, the govermet has aouced 14.7% cut i subsidies i The arrower-tha-expected fiscal deficit hited at the govermet's cocers over the sustaiability of large spedig plas ad a redirectio of its focus back towards fiscal cosolidatio as the ecoomy turs aroud ext year. We could see the govermet pushig for the budget deficit to retur to pre-crisis levels of uder 5% of GDP (betwee 2004 to 2008) i the comig 2-3 years. Secod Fi Mi Ahmad Husi said the govermet plas to balace the budget i 3-6 years. However, it remais to be seemed whether the deficit of 5.6% of GDP ca be achieved ext year give the persoal icome tax cut ad icreased allocatio of fuds for civil servats' salaries. This represets aroud 20.8% cut i the budget deficit to RM40.48b i 2010 from a estimated RM51.115b this year. Data focus: Sigapore CPI The Cosumer Price Idex iflatio declied more sharply tha market expectatios i Sep, extedig the cotractio to 6 cosecutive moths. CPI iflatio declied slightly by 0.1% m/m (cosesus: +0.2%, UOB: +0.5%) ad fell 0.4% y/y (cosesus: -0.1%, UOB: +0.1%). O a seasoally adjusted basis, CPI remaied flat. Sep's price decreases o-moth resulted maily from housig costs which dropped 0.5% o lower service ad coservacy charges, as rebates were give i Sep but ot i Aug. Trasport & commuicatio costs also came dow 0.2% o cheaper prices of cars ad petrol. O a yearly basis, the declie i CPI came largely from housig costs which were dow 2.5%, as well as trasport ad recreatio expeses. We had expected the CPI iflatio to veture ito positive territory i Sep, due to the pace at which the y/y cotractio was easig i the prior moths, o the back of the improvig domestic ecoomy. We still expect moth-o-moth growth for the rest of the year, as well as a icrease i CPI o a yearly basis, startig i Nov ad Dec, o the back of a 12.5% icrease i electricity tariffs i Oct. However, give the high base i Oct last year, the CPI for Oct should still be showig a declie. With the price of crude oil ad vehicle prices startig to race ahead agai, this would traslate to higher food, housig ad trasport costs i the comig moths. Also, as the ecoomy's recovery become firmer, ad demad climbs, we thik iflatio might head higher tha MAS' forecast of 1-2% for That would be the impetus for a moetary policy tighteig at the Apr meetig ext year.

4 Asia Markets Moday, 26 October 2009 p4 Key Data/Evet Ahead i Asia Mo 26 October SKR 3Q Advace GDP (mkt: +2.1%: 2Q: +2.3%) SG Sep Idustrial Productio (mkt: -1.1% y/y: Aug: +12.3%) Tue 27 October PH TW HK Aug exteral trade (Jul : -2% m/m, -32%y/y) Sep Busiess idicators Sep exteral trade (Aug exports: +13.8% y/y, imports: -9.8%y/y) Wed 28 October MY Bak Negara Malaysia Moetary Policy Committee Meetig ad statemet Thur 29 October SKR Balace of paymets Fri 30 October SKR SG TH Busiess Survey idex. Sep Idustrial productio idex (Aug : -1.3% m/m, +1.2% y/y) Bak loas 3Q Uemploymet rate (2Q09: 3.3%) Trade statistics

5 Asia Markets Moday, 26 October 2009 p5 Ecoomic Idicators Local Time Idicators Mth Actual UOB Forecast Mkt Forecast Previous 23/ SG CPI y/y Sep % 1300 SG CPI m/m sa Sep % 1600 TW Export orders y/y Sep % 1600 TW Id Prod y/y Sep % 1700 MA CPI y/y Sep % 26/ SK GDP at costat pr q/q 3Q P % 0700 SK GDP at costat pr q/q 3Q P % 1300 SG Idustrial Prod y/y Sep % 1300 SG Idustrial Prod m/m sa Sep % 27/ Sk Cosumer Cofidece Oct PH Total Imports y/y Aug % 0900 PH Trade Bal Aug m 1600 TW Leadig Id m/m Sep % 1630 HK Exports y/y Sep % 1630 HK Imports y/y Sep % 1630 HK Trade Bal Sep b 28/ SK Curret acct i US$ Sep m 0700 SK Good Bal i US$ Sep m 1800 MYR O/N Policy Rate Oct % 29/ SK Busiess Survey - Maufacturig Nov SK Busiess Survey - No-Maufacturig Nov / SG Uemploymet rate sa 3Q % 1230 SK Idustrial Prod m/m Sep % 1230 SK Idustrial Prod y/y Sep % 1020 SK Leadig Id y/y Sep % 1530 TH Total Exports y/y Sep % 1530 TH Total Imports y/y Sep % 1530 TH Total Trade Bal Sep m 1530 TH Maufacturig Prod y/y Sep % 1530 TH Busiess Setimet Id Sep % 1530 TH Foreig Reserves Oct HK Govt Mthly Budget Surp/Def HK$ Sep b Jimmy Koh Sua Teck Ki, CFA Ho Woei Che Chow Pe Nee (65) (65) (65) (65) Jimmy.KohCT@UOBgroup.com Sua.TeckKi@UOBgroup.com Ho.WoeiChe@UOBgroup.com Chow.PeNee@UOBgroup.com Disclaimer: This aalysis is based o iformatio available to the public. Although the iformatio cotaied herei is believed to be reliable, UOB Group makes o represetatio as to the accuracy or completeess. Also, opiios ad predictios cotaied herei reflect our opiio as of date of the aalysis ad are subject to chage without otice. UOB Group may have positios i, ad may effect trasactios i, currecies ad fiacial products metioed herei. Prior to eterig ito ay proposed trasactio, without reliace upo UOB Group or its affiliates, the reader should determie, the ecoomic risks ad merits, as well as the legal, tax ad accoutig characterizatios ad cosequeces, of the trasactio ad that able to assume these risks. This documet ad its cotets are proprietary iformatio ad products of UOB Group ad may ot be reproduced or otherwise.