FLASH ECONOMICS. Which euro-zone countries still suffer from Dutch disease? ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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1 ECONOMICS ECONOMIC RESEARCH April 21, 16 No. 392 Which euro-zone countries still suffer from Dutch disease? Dutch disease is a situation where the price of services (more generally, goods that are not traded internationally) increases relative to the price of industrial products (goods traded internationally), leading to a higher return on capital in (domestic) services than in industry (and industry-related services) and resulting in a transfer of capital to services, deindustrialisation, declining sophistication of the economy and external deficits. Dutch disease can have several causes: in its initial version, the fact that commodity revenues are partially spent on services, which drives up the price of services; but it can also arise due to weak competition in services relative to industry, the effects of an overvalued exchange rate, etc. We examine the situations of Germany, France, Spain and Italy. Have these countries suffered from Dutch disease, and in which periods? France, Spain and Italy have suffered from Dutch disease since the 19s. Have recent developments (depreciation of the euro, fall in commodity prices; in some countries increased labour market flexibility, reduction in labour costs, reduction in corporate taxes) caused Dutch disease to subside in any of these countries? This is the case in France and Spain. Author: Patrick Artus
2 Are there (have there been) visible symptoms of Dutch disease in the four large euro-zone countries? Dutch disease consists in: An increase in the price of services (goods that are not traded internationally, which of course includes construction) relative to the price of industrial products (goods traded internationally, which includes industry-related services); As a result, an increase in the return on capital in services relative to industry, causing investment and capital to shift from industry to services; The negative consequences of deindustrialisation: fall in productivity, in living standards and in the sophistication of the economy; chronic external deficits. The increase in the relative price of services can have several causes: The appearance of additional revenues (due for example to the discovery of raw materials), a portion of which is spent on services, pushing up the price of services to rebalance the services market (whereas industrial prices are set by international competition); An abnormal appreciation of the exchange rate; Greater competition in industry than in services. Where and when have symptoms of Dutch disease appeared? We will examine the situations of Germany, France, Spain and Italy. 1. Relative price of services (goods not exposed to international competition). The relative price of services has increased in the four countries (Charts 1A, B, C and D and 2A, B, C and D). Chart 1A Germany: Inflation by sector (CPI, 1995:1 = ) Chart 1B France: Inflation by sector (CPI, 1995:1 = ) Sources: Datastream, Natixis Sources: Datastream, Natixis Flash
3 Chart 1C Spain: Inflation by sector (CPI, 1995:1 = ) Chart 1D Italy: Inflation by sector (CPI, 1995:1 = ) 1 1 Chart 2A Germany: Value added deflator by sector (1995:1 = ) Chart 2B France: Value added deflator by sector (1995:1 = ) Non-manufacturing Non-manufacturing Chart 2C Spain: Value added deflator by sector (1995:1 = ) Chart 2D Italy: Value added deflator by sector (1995:1 = ) Non-manufacturing 1 Non-manufacturing 1 2. Profit margins (Charts 3A, B, C and D). Profit margins in services are high relative to those in industry in Germany, France, Spain and Italy; Profit margins in construction are high relative to those in industry in Spain and Italy; Flash
4 30 Chart 3A Germany: Profit margins (as %) industry Service companies Construction Economy as a whole Sources: Eurostat, Natixis Chart 3C Spain: Profit margins (as %) Chart 3B France: Profit margins (as %) industry Construction Economy as a whole Sources: Datastream, INSEE, Natixis Chart 3D Italy: Profit margins (as %) industry Service companies Construction Economy as a whole Sources: INE, Natixis Sources: Eurostat, Natixis industry Construction Economy as a whole Production capacity in manufacturing industry, the weight of manufacturing industry in the economy, productive investment Production capacity in industry and the weight of industry have declined under the effect of insufficient productive investment in France, Spain and Italy (Charts 4A, B, C and D and Chart 5). Chart 4A Germany: Production capacity and value added in the manufacturing sector production capacity* (1995:1 =, LH scale) Value added in the manufacturing sector (as % of real GDP, RH scale) Chart 4B France: Production capacity and value added in the manufacturing sector production capacity* (1995:1 =, LH scale) Value added in the manufacturing sector (as % of real GDP, RH scale) Maaaaaaaaaann pppppppppp CCCCCCCC uuuuuuuuuuu rrrr Maaaaaaaaaann pppppppppp CCCCCCCC uuuuuuuuuuu rrrr 11,4 11,2 11,0 10, ,6 10,4 10,2 10,0 9,8 Flash
5 Chart 4C Spain: Production capacity and value added in the manufacturing sector production capacity* (1995:1 =, LH scale) Value added in the manufacturing sector (as % of real GDP, RH scale) Maaaaaaaaaann pppppppppp CCCCCCCC uuuuuuuuuuu rrrr Chart 4D Italy: Production capacity and value added in the manufacturing sector production capacity* (1995:1 =, LH scale) Value added in the manufacturing sector (as % of real GDP, RH scale) 18 Maaaaaaaaaann pppppppppp CCCCCCCC uuuuuuuuuuu rrrr Chart 5 Productive investment (as % of real GDP) Germany France Spain Italy Foreign trade in industrial products Foreign trade in industrial products has deteriorated in Italy, France and Spain (Chart 6). The improvement since 10 in Spain and Italy stems from a fall in domestic demand Chart 6 Trade balance in manufactured goods (as % of nominal GDP) Germany France Spain Italy Sources: Datastream, Eurostat, OECD, Natixis Flash
6 The above shows that the symptoms of Dutch disease (increase in the relative price of services, lower profit margins in industry than in the rest of the economy, shift by capital to services, fall in the weight of industry) can be observed in France, Spain and Italy. A way out of Dutch disease in the recent period? The recent period has been marked by several positive trends for industry in the euro zone: The fall in the prices of commodities consumed by industry (Chart 7); The euro s depreciation (Chart 8); Increased flexibility of labour markets (labour cost reforms in Spain and Italy); The fall in labour costs in industry (Chart 9A) in Spain and more recently in France thanks to corporate tax cuts (Chart 9B). Chart 7 Oil and non-precious metal prices Oil prices (Brent, USD/bbl, LH scale) Non-precious metal prices (1996:1 =, RH scale) Sources: Datastream, Natixis ,75 0,70 Chart 9A Level of unit labour cost in the manufacturing sector* Germany France Spain Italy (*) Payroll incl. social contributions/ value added in volume terms ,75 0,70 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 Chart 8 Exchange rates Exchange rate against the dollar (EUR 1 = USD..., LH scale) Euro zone: nominal trade-weighted exchange rate* (1996:1 =, RH scale) (*) Rise = nominal appreciation of the currency Sources: Datastream, Natixis 0, Chart 9B Corporate taxes* (as % of nominal GDP) Allemagne France Spain Italy (*) Social contributions + taxes on profits + production taxes + miscellaneous taxes 18 0,65 0, , 0,55 0, 0, 0,55 0, ,45 0, ,45 0, Have these positive trends for industry enabled any of the countries to overcome Dutch disease? Let us revisit the relative price of services (Charts 1A, B, C and D and 2A, B, C and D above), profit margins (Charts 3A, B, C and D above), production capacity (Charts 4A, B, C and D and Chart 5) and foreign trade in industry (Chart 6 above) in the recent period. Flash
7 There have been signs of improvement: The fall in the relative price of services in Spain (Chart 2C); The upturn in the value added deflator in France and Italy (Charts 2B and D); The improvement in profit margins in French industry (Chart 3B); The upturn in productive investment in Spain (Chart 5). Conclusion: Dutch disease is still present in Italy but has eased in Spain and France Among the four largest euro-zone countries, Dutch disease (an increase in the relative price of services leading to a lower return on capital in industry than in services and deindustrialisation) has been observed in France, Spain and Italy. Recent positive trends for industry (fall in commodity prices, depreciation of the euro, labour market reforms, reduction in labour costs) have caused Dutch disease to subside in France and Spain. Flash
8 Flash
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