Presentation to Eurostat

Transcription

1 Overview of Irish National Accounts Results in 2015 Presentation to Eurostat

2 billion NIE 2015 Year-on-Year Growth Rates Annual GDP & GNP Constant Prices GDP % (+7.8%) 200 GNP % (+5.7%) 180 GDP 160 Previous provisional 140 annual estimate in 120 brackets 100 GNP

3 NIE 2015 Annual Revisions and Revision Policy Latest Revenue tax files Commodity flow estimates Structural Business Survey Data - CIP, ASI, Prodcom Insurance Statistics Methodology Changes Financial Services

4 Revisions due to inclusion of relocated companies Relocated companies - entire balance sheets relocated to Ireland Revisions not significantly related to inversions or redomiciled corporations - change of HQ Relocations recorded as reclassifications under other volume changes of Capital and Financial Balance Sheets 4

5 Process leading to inclusion of enterprises in Irish data Identify Enterprise Determine Residency Engagement with Enterprise 5

6 billion 1,200 Balance Sheet Impact Impact on Gross Capital Stocks (Incl. transactions and reclassifications) 1, *Preliminary figures

7 million 0 Balance Sheet Impact Intl Accounts Revisions to Ireland s Net International Investment Position -100, , , , , ,000 Net IIP, March 2016 Net IIP, July 2016

8 Increases in Stock of Capital Assets Increased Capital Assets Increased Production of Goods and Services Increased Depreciation Increased Profits

9 billion GDP, NDP and Changes in Depreciation NDP NIE2015 Deprec NIE2015

10 Annual Sector Growth by Share of GDP and Growth Rate Agriculture % Other Services + 5.8% Industry % Dist. Transport Software & Comms + 7.7% Public Admin + 5.7% Construction + 7.1%

11 Change to Value added of Industry Production generally abroad for these entities contract manufacturing arrangements Economic ownership remaining with Irish entities ownership of Intellectual Property controlling production and distribution chains and sale to third parties / affiliates 11

12 Trend in Value Added by Sector 2010 = Industry DTS&C Other Services Ind DTS&C Other Services

13 Annual Expenditure by Share of GDP and Growth Rate Net Exports % Gov. Consumption of Goods & Services + 1.1% Investment % Personal Consumption of Goods & Services + 4.5%

14 2010 = 100 billion Trend in Net Exports 2010 = 100 v's Total Exports and Imports Exports Imports Net Exp TDD 0

15 Contribution of Domestic Demand and Net Exports to Annual GDP % Net Exports Total Domestic Demand

16 Recording in Exports Imports Items produced on a contract manufacturing arrangement for these entities once sold are recorded as exports (Net) Imports are offset against gross exports Implications for the BOP and National Accounts if data was recorded gross. Recording of merchanting where appropriate 16

17 million 60,000 Composition of Capital Formation Constant prices - chain linked 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 B&C M&E Intangibles

18 million 300, , , , ,000 50, , ,000 GDP, GNP and Net Factor Flows GDP NFF GNP

19 Impact of relocations on GDP GNI transition BOP Entrepreneurial income is calculated after depreciation Impact of additional depreciation Year GDP Depreciation Net Factor Flows GNI NNI ,160 30,891-29, , , ,815 61,558-53, , ,204 Diff 62,655 30,667-23,458 39,003 8,336 Change 32.4% 24.1% 6.4% 19

20 million Revisions to BOP Current Account 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10,000-15,000 Current Account Balance, March 2016 Current Account Balance, July 2016

21 CURRENT ACCOUNT AND BALANCE Net Income outflow Services balance Merchandise surplus Current Account surplus

22 BOP Q Financial Account See BOP Tables 2b and 3 Direct Investment: Abroad increase In Ireland increase Portfolio Investment: Assets increase Liabilities increase Other Investment: Assets decrease Liabilities decrease 33,299m 17,079m 12,620m 15,599m 18,832m 12,612m Increases by non-ifsc enterprises of 18,878m and IFSC enterprises of 14,422m. Increases of 4,944m in Reinvested Earnings, 43,517m in Equity along with a decrease of 31,381m in Other Capital Increase of 221m in Equity assets and an increase of 12,399m in Debt Instrument assets Increase of 14,867m in Equity liabilities Decrease of 9,412m by IFSC enterprises along with a decrease of 9,419m by non- IFSC enterprises Decrease of 8,747m by IFSC enterprises along with a decrease of 3,865m by non- IFSC enterprises

23 Summary GDP: % (current prices) GNI: Increase of 24% Increases focussed in Direct Investment Enterprises Impact of large additional depreciation charges - increase 30.7bn Relatively lower profit outflows to foreign owners GDP bn Profit Outflows bn Large addition to GNI + 39bn

24 Any Questions?