The Irish Economy. The revival of the Celtic Tiger
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1 The Irish Economy The revival of the Celtic Tiger
2 Sustained growth, above eurozone average Ireland is the fastest-growing economy in Europe % growth of real GDP Ireland Poland UK Sweden Germany EU 28 Spain Eurozone France Italy -0,4% 1,6% 1,5% 1,5% 1,9% 0,9% 1,5% 0,2% 1,1% 2,9% 2,5% 2,3% 2,8% 1,4% 3,3% 0,8% ,2% 3,1% 3,5% 7,8% The Irish economy should continue to grow faster than the Eurozone in the next four years Average annual growth rate Ireland 2,9% Spain 2,0% Nederlands 2,0% France 1,8% Eurozone 1,6% Germany 1,3% Italy 1,1% 7.8% GDP growth in 2015 Fastest EU growth Strong growth in years to come, IMF Sources : CSO estimates and IMF forecasts Sources : IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2015) 2
3 Strong growth built on external trade Ireland's trade balance has been consistently positive throughout the crisis years, and has been increasing in 2015 In EUR Billions The weight of international trade in Irish GDP has increased in the past three years Total trade at current prices (EUR bn) and in pp of gross GDP Total trade In pp of gross GDP Imports Exports Trade balance 84,2% 85,0% 83,0% ,3% 81,5% ,5 148,6 144,2 154,0 178, Large trade surplus Increase in share of trade in GDP: 80.3% ( 13 ) vs 83% ( 15 3
4 Dynamic export sector presents opportunities for French companies The growth of Irish imports presents opportunities for French companies in several sectors Irish imports in EUR billions and in % growth ( ) Growth ,3% + 26,6% + 22,9% + 24,8% + 18,7% + 18,0% + 16,3% + 15,6% + 16,1% + 13,8% + 13,7% + 8,7% + 19,9 % good exports ( 111bn), FY 2015: % pharmaceutical products % organic chemicals +10.1% good imports ( 67bn), FY2015: % car imports % pharmaceutical products % organic chemicals % IT equipment 4
5 Bilateral trade with France - Goods Due to differences in methodology, French and Irish statistics on bilateral trade differ EUR M French exports French imports Trade balance France trade surplus vis-à-vis Ireland (+ 2.3bn), CSO France trade deficit vis-à-vis Ireland (- 3.7bn), French customs Explantation: New methodology in Irish national accounts, incorporating aircraft imports CSO French customs Sources : CSO and French customs administration 5
6 Bilateral trade with France - Services The Irish service trade surplus with France has widened, reaching 3.2 bn in 2014 In EUR millions Irish service exports Irish service imports IT services make up 58% of Irish service exports to France Irish service exports to France (2014) - in %. Total = 5.4 bn IT services Business services Financial services Others 12% Insurance and business services make up 71% of French service exports to Ireland French service exports to Ireland (2014) - in %. Total = 2.2 bn Tourism Insurances Business services Others 13% 16% Balance : 3.2bn 15% 15% 58% 28% % Large trade surplus vis-à-vis France (+ 3.2bn, 2014) Irish exports in France ( 5.4bn) dominated by IT services (58%) Irish imports from France ( 2.bn) include business services (43%), tourism (16%) and insurance (13%) 6
7 Multinationals play central role in economy, especially regarding exports MNEs sales abroad made up over 2/3 of all Irish exports in 2014 MNEs exports - in EUR bn and in pp of total exports MNEs provide 9.5% of all Irish jobs in 2015, up from 7.9% in 2010 Employment in MNEs - In number of jobs and in pp of total employment MNEs exports ( bn) % of total exports % of total employment % de l'emploi total 61,5% 65,9% 65,1% 65,0% 66,0% 7,9% 8,3% 8,6% 8,8% 9,0% 9,5% 105,3 116,1 122,0 124,5 141, and IDA and IDA Multinationals: Exported 142bn of goods and services (2014), i.e. 2/3 of exports Employ 187,056 people (2015), i.e. 10% of total workforce Account for 2-3 pp of GDP growth in
8 Multinationals impact Irish growth in many ways Evolution of remittances and dividends transferred abroad (NFIA*) In EUR M and in pp of GDP Annual NFIA** NFIA (% GDP***) - right axis 7.8% growth in GDP (2015) % 20% % % Multinationals 2-3% Domestic sector 4-5% ** 5% 0% * Net Factor Income from Abroad ** Three quarters *** GDP = GNP + NFIA Payment of dividends abroad Profit relocalisation in Ireland Investments in R&D BEPS : encourage multinationals to further reside profits in Ireland (12,5% corporation tax) Fiscal domiciliation: some companies relocate their headquarters in Ireland to benefit from the 12.5 corporate tax rate, without having significant operational activities there («Redomiciled Plcs») Knowledge Development Box : 6.25% tax on profits from patent development in Ireland (1st January 2016) 8
9 Consumption and investment benefiting from catch-up effect The number of vehicles licenced for the first time has jumped back to its 2009 level Number of vehicles licenced for the first time - annual data Irish GFCF (excluding aircrafts and intangibles) is less reliant on the construction sector and is back to its pre-crisis level Gross fixed capital formation in EUR Bn and in pp of nominal GDP Aircrafts Machinery and equipment (excl. Aircrafts) GFCF excl. aircrafts and intang. (%GDP - right axis) 28,7% 22,8% 17,8% 9,2% Intangibles Construction Total GFCF (%GDP - right axis) 22,0% 10,8% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Strong rebound in private consumption and investment: 120,000 new cars licensed (2015), i.e. + 66,700 since 2009 Private investment recovering since 2010: + 17,6bn (22% of GDP vs. 17.8% in 2010) 9
10 Although led by exports until 2013, growth rebalancing itself toward domestic demand Contributions à la croissance En% de variation du PIB à prix constants GDP growth was entirely reliant on internal demand in 2015, particularly on investment Evolution of real GDP in EUR Consommation privée Dépenses publiques Investissement Exportations nettes PIB réel +7,8% 9% +11,3 6% 3% +3,1-0,19 0% -3% 187,2 201,7-6% -9% GDP 2014 Private consumption Public expenses Investment GDP 2015 (données préliminaires pour 2015) (preliminary estimates for 2015) : External trade only positive contribution to GDP Continued to lead growth Since 2014, growth rebalancing towards domestic demand: More investment: % of GFCF in 2015 (contributed 6 pp to GDP growth) More private consumption: positive contribution to growth since
11 Reduction in private debt Irish households and firms are engaged in a long deleveraging process Irish private sector debt held by Irish banks - in EUR billions Households Non-financial enterprises Gradual decline in private debt: 143bn (Nov 15) vs. 318bn (Jan 09) 74% of GDP (Nov 15) vs. 188% (Jan 09) Rapid deleveraging of companies: - 116bn ( Jan 09 - Nov 15) Source : Central Bank of Ireland 11
12 Labour market benefitting from economic recovery The Irish labour market has also recovered strongly since 2011, with 140,000 new jobs and a 3.5% increase in earnings ,1 Jobs Avera ge weekly earnings* ( ) 622,6 614,2 614,8 618,1 621,9 624,4 635, ,000 jobs since 2011: 42% of jobs in Dublin 56% of jobs in tertiary sector Increase in salaries: Average weekly salary in private sector (2015), i.e % than 2010 * In the private sector 12
13 Rapid growth in household income and expenditure Irish private consumption growth is stifled by high debt repayments In pp of Gross Disposable Income (GNI) Propensity to consume 2015 Var.% GDI 2015/2014* +10.3% gross household disposable income (3Q 2013 vs. 3Q 2014) +3,5% +10,3% +2,2% +0,6% +2,4% +15,1% +10.2% private expenditure (2015 vs. 2012) 72,9% 68,5% 79,7% 71,2% 70,3% 86,4% Weak propensity to consume (68.5%, 2015) linked to debt repayments: Return to precrisis levels of consumption (80%) should reinforce market attractiveness *3Q 2015/3Q
14 Household and company confidence rising since 2013 The recovery has been reflected in improving consumer confidence Monthly Retail Sales Index (Base 100 = 2005) The Irish manufacturing sector has been expanding since mid-2013, albeit at a slower pace since mid-2015 Manufacturing PMI - Values above 50 represent expansion of the manufacturing sector Source : AIB Economy Watch Monthly retail index increase: (Nov 15) vs. 87 (Jan 10) Industrial PMI > 50 since May 2013, i.e. 32 month increase 14
15 After years of under investment, Ireland needs infrastructure Public investment only 2% of GDP (2015): Low for OECD economy Rapid collapse after 2008 Infrastructure needs are great opportunity for French companies Infrastructure deficiencies: Ireland fell from 19th ( 07 ) to 31st ( 12), World Bank Logistics Performance Index Dublin (1.3 million people): 2 railway lines, no metro 15
16 Government to invest 27bn in infrastructure ( ) Capital Investment Plan Transport 9.6bn Education 3.8bn Environment 4bn Health 3.1bn Total 27bn Roads: 6bn Improve infrastructure Homes: 2.9bn Renew infrastructure Public transport: 3.6bn New buildings Floods : 0.43bn Build new centers 16
17 State-owned companies to supplement this with 14.5bn worth of investment State-owned enterprises Energy 5.8bn Drinking water 4.2bn Housing 2.5bn Infrastructure 2bn Total 14.5bn Energy distribution and transmission network Water treatment and distribution infrastructure Housing and company development Ports, airports, public transport, forestry and biomass 17
18 Ireland one of world s most open economies, ICC ranking ICC Rankings 2013 & Singapore 1 ICC Rankings' Criteria for Ireland Excellent Above average Hong Kong Ireland Sweden Germany UK 30 France USA Spain Source : the International Chamber of Commerce Trade Openness Trade Policy FDI Openness Trade infrastructures Source : the International Chamber of Commerce Ireland 6th most open economy in world: Above average for all criteria Attractive for FDI (5.6/6) and exports: Excellent trade infrastructure (5/6) and above average trade openess (4.6/6) Total 18
19 Your French interlocutors in Ireland The Economic Department of the French Embassy in Dublin is part of the French Treasury s international network, and is in charge of analysing and reporting on the Irish economy. It is in charge of coordinating the operations of the other actors in Ireland in line with the government policies. Founded in 2015, Business France is the national agency supporting the international development of the French economy, responsible for fostering export growth by French business, as well as promoting and facilitating international investment in France. The CCEF is comprised of 4000 business leaders, present in 140 countries that act as advisers on French foreign trade. Their core missions are advising public authorities, promoting the attractiveness of France, supporting companies in international development and training young people. The France Ireland Chamber of Commerce promotes trade and investment between France and Ireland, and brings together the Irish and French business communities in Ireland. 19
20 Contact information Mr. Pierre Mongrué Head of the Economic Department Ms Gisèle Hivert-Messeca Ireland Country Manager Mr. Olivier Melennec President of CCEF Ireland Ms. Cliona McGowan General director of FICC Address French Embassy in Ireland 66 Merrion Square, Dublin 2 Mail pierre.mongrue@dgtresor.gouv.fr Tel (0) Address French Embassy in Ireland 66 Merrion Square, Dublin 2 Mail gisele.hivertmesseca@businessfrance.fr Tel (0) Address CACI Dublin Beaux Lane House, Lower Mercer St, Dublin 2 Mail olivier.melennec@ca-caci.ie Tel (0) Address FICC 44 Upper Mount St, Dublin 2 Mail c.mcgowan@franceireland.ie Tel (0)
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