Bank Austria Economics & Market Analysis Austria. Austrian Economy. September

Transcription

1 Bank Austria Economics & Market Analysis Austria Austrian Economy September

2 Austrian Economy Author: Walter Pudschedl Imprint Published by UniCredit Bank Austria AG Schottengasse -8 Vienna Telephone + ()-97 Fax + ()- econresearch.austria@unicreditgroup.at As of September Bank Austria page

3 Austrian Economy Overview Revision ) Revision ) Revision ) Revision ) GDP (real, in %)..7.. Inflation (CPI in %) ) Revision since the last report of August No economic growth in third quarter expectations of GDP growth of per cent for unchanged thanks to a good start to the year Inflation rises slightly to. per cent in August decline to less than per cent by yearend Retail sales grew at a moderate, but slower, pace from January to July environment makes slight growth possible in as a whole Labour market impacted by the economic slowdown unemployment will climb to 7. per cent in Industry currently in negative growth improvement likely towards the end of Foreign trade under pressure from European economic stagnation trade deficit with slight downward trend Tax revenue in line with budget figures still on track for budget target of per cent of GDP The Austrian economy, increasingly impacted by the cooling of the global economy and the recession in some EU countries, has meanwhile departed from its growth path. In view of the good start to the year, we nevertheless expect economic growth of about per cent in as a whole. For we look for GDP growth of. per cent. In August, the downward inflationary trend that commenced in the autumn last year was interrupted as a result of a weaker euro exchange rate and higher oil and food prices. Inflation rose to. per cent yearon-year. We assume that the downward trend will be resumed in the coming months, supported by the meanwhile stronger euro. We now expect an average inflation rate of. per cent for, and of.9 per cent for. Retail sales were up.7 per cent (in nominal terms) in the period January to July, or by. per cent (in real terms) year-on-year. After a strong start to the year, the momentum has however been flagging markedly. But the combination of slower inflation and an increase in real wages is likely to result in moderate growth in as a whole. The situation on the labour market continued to deteriorate in August, but the negative trend is showing signs of slowing down. Unemployment will however probably rise to 7. per cent in as a whole (:.7 per cent). The more buoyant economic growth expected for is unlikely to suffice for a turnaround. Based on the Bank Austria Purchasing Managers Index in August, Austria s industrial output once again declined in that month. While a sharp downturn such as that seen in the crisis of 8/9 is unlikely, an impetus that could boost output before the end of the current year is not in sight. We therefore expect industrial output to grow by no more than one per cent in as a whole (: 7 per cent). may see stronger growth of some per cent in a calmer European environment. The difficult conditions in Europe and the recession in some of Austria s key export markets are currently impacting the country s foreign trade and will probably limit export growth in the coming months. In, export growth will be well below the level of the previous year. will see a further easing of the trade deficit as imports continue to contract. Although tax revenue has risen by only. per cent year-on-year in the first six months of on account of the more moderate growth rate (Jan.-July : +.8 per cent) and expenditure was above budget in some areas (e.g. pension contributions), we still expect that the government will succeed in meeting its budget target of per cent of GDP in. Bank Austria page September

4 Austrian Economy Austrian Economy Austrian Economic Forecast forecast 8 9 Real change in % GDP Private consumption Public consumption Gross fixed capital formation*) Investments in plant and machinery Investments in construction Exports Imports CPI (change in %) HCPI (change in %) Current account (in EUR bn) Current account (in % of GDP) Employment in s**) change in % Unemployment rate (nat. def.) Unemployment rate (EU def.) Unemployed (annual average in,) General gov. balance (in % of GDP) Public-sector debt (in % of GDP) Nominal GDP (in euro bn) *) excluding changes in inventory **) excluding persons drawing maternity benefits, military service and training Bank Austria Bank Austria page September

5 Austrian Economy - Forecast GDP (real) Inflation (CPI).7.7 forecast / / /7 /8 /9 / / / / Wesentliche Rahmenbedingungen estimate forecast forecast 8 9 (Real change in %) GDP Eurozone GDP growth Private consumption Public consumption US GDP growth..8.. Gross fixed capital formation UniCredit MIB Investments in plant and machinery Investments in construction Exports Imports (yearly average) CPI (change in %) HCPI (change in % ) USD per euro forecast Employment (change in %)*) Crude oil (USD per brl)* 8 Unemployment rate (nat. def.) Unemployment rate (EU def.) y gov. bonds.... General gov. balance (in % of GDP) months money Public sector debt (in % of GDP) UniCredit MIB, Thomson Reuters * Futures *) excluding maternity/paternity leave, military service and training programmes 9 September

6 Austrian Economy - Data 8 9 III IV I II III / / / / / / 7/ 8/ 9/ Bank Austria Business Indicator GDP growth (prev. quarter, annualised) Industrial confidence Eurozone Germany France Italy Netherlands Spain Bank Austria Industrial confidence Eurozone Bank Austria Purchase Manager s Index Backlog of work New export orders Output expectations Industrial confidence Austria Industrial output change against previous year change against previous month (saisonal adjusted) Foreign trade Exports (change against previous year in %) Exports (chg. against prev. month, s.a. in %, m mov. av.) Imports (change against previous year in %) Imports (chg. against prev. month, s.a. in %, m mov. av.) Ex-Im (m cum., euro bn) Construction Confidence indicator September

7 Austrian Economy - Data 8 9 III IV I II III / / / / / / 7/ 8/ 9/ Retail trade Confidence indicator Retail trade nom. (change against previous year in %) Retail trade nom. (change against previous year in %, mav.) Retail trade real (change against previous year in %) Retail trade real (chg. against prev. month in %, s.a., mav.) Automobile trade nom. (change against prev. year in %) Tourism Overnight stay (change against previous year in %) Labour market Employment*) (change against previous year in %) Employment (s.a., change against previous month in %) Unemployed (change against previous year in ) Unemployment rate (in %, s.a.) Prices CPI (change against previous year in %) HCPI (Change against previous year in %) Prices of raw materials (change against prev. year in %) Crude oil (change against previous year in %) Financial market M Euribor year government bonds USD per euro Total loans (change against previous year in %, eop) Consumption loans (change against prev. year in %, eop) *) excluding maternity/paternity leave, military service and training programmes 9 September

8 Austrian Economy - Graphs GDP and industrial production GDP (yoy in %, real; left scale) Industrial production (yoy in %; m avg.; right scale) Industrial and consumer confidence Industrial confidence Consumer confidence Austria's exports and imports Bank Austria Business Indicator Imports (yoy in %; m avg.) Exports (yoy in %; m avg.) GDP (yoy in %, real) Bank Austria Business Indicator Economics - and Market Analysis September

9 Austrian Economy - Graphs Unemployed Unemployed (yoy in,; right scale) Unemployment rate (in %; seasonally adjusted; left scale) Employment Employed (excl. matern./patern. leave) - left scale yoy in % excl. matern./patern. leave, military serv. and train. progr. - right scale 8 y Inflation rate Retail trade - HCPI (yoy in %) CPI (yoy in %) Retail trade (yoy in %; real; m avg.; left scale) Confidence indicator (right scale) September

10 Money market Euro area (in %) -M money (in %) -M-Euribor Repo Marginal lending facility Deposit facility Euribor USD Libor M money (in %) UK UK Schweiz Japan Japan Japan Switzerland Schweiz Financial forecasts 8/9/9 in m in m Euro-m money market... Forwards..8 Euro-y German bonds..7.8 Euro-y Austrian bonds... US$-m money market... Forward.9. US-y treasuries.8.. CHF/Euro... Forwards..9 US$/Euro... Forwards.. Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Bank Austria; Forecast: UniCredit Research 9 September

11 Long-term interest rates -Y Government bonds (yield in %) -Y Government bonds (yield in %). US Treasury Germany.. UK Switzerland Japan Y Goverment bonds (yield in %) Interest rate differential Austria - Germany Austria September

12 Equity market USA - Euro area Germany - Euro area Dow-Jones (left scale) Euro-Stoxx (right scale) DAX (left scale) Euro-Stoxx (right scale) UK - Japan Austria - Euro area FTSE (left scale) NIKKEI (right scale) ATX (left scale) Euro Stoxx (right scale) September

13 Exchange rates USD per Euro SFR per Euro Yen per Euro GBP per Euro September

14 Austrian Economy - Selected indicators Forecast Change against prev. year in % GDP (real) Industrial output (real) Gross fixed capital formation (real) CPI (yearly average) Unemployment rate (yearly average) General gov. balance (in % of GDP) GDP (nom., Euro bn) Per capita GDP (in euro),,,9,,,7,7 7, in EUR mn Merchandise exports **),7,8 7, 9,79 9,7,77,9,99 Merchandise imports **),, 9,8 97,7,,8,98, Current account balance **) 7,8 9,,77 7,87 9,7,7,, Current account balance (in % of GDP) **) Foreign direct investment (inflow, net) **),,7,8,97,,,, Gross foreign debt (end of period) 98,7, 9,7 77,9 97,8,7,7,7 Gross foreign debt (in % of GDP) Import cover (in months) *) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. EUR/USD (yearly average) *) not useful for Austria as a member of the eurozone **) numbers are still forecasts Source: Bank Austria, OeNB, Wifo, UniCredit Research 9 September

15 Austrian Economy Austrian Economy We invite you to visit the economic analyses on Bank Austria s website: under "Analyses & Research" in the section "Economic Research" or directly at If you would like to receive information on our most recent publications by , please subscribe to the newsletter Bank Austria EconomicNews on the website. If you have further questions, please send us an to econresearch.austria@unicreditgroup.at Disclaimer of liability The opinions of the authors do not necessarily reflect those of Bank Austria and those of the companies which have engaged the services of the authors. The information contained in this publication is not to be interpreted as an offer or invitation for the sale or purchase of securities of any kind. We reserve the right to modify the views expressed in this publication at any time without prior notification. Imprint. Disclosure according to Sections and of the Austrian Media Act (Mediengesetz - MedienG): Published by: UniCredit Bank Austria AG Vienna, Schottengasse 8, which is also the media owner. Editor: Walter Pudschedl Business objective: credit institution pursuant to Section () of the Austrian Banking Act (Bankwesengesetz) Persons authorised to act on behalf of the media owner (Management Board): Willibald Cernko (Chairman of the Management Board), Gianni Franco Papa (Deputy Chairman of the Management Board), Massimiliano Fossati, Francesco Giordano, Rainer Hauser, Dieter Hengl, Doris Tomanek, Robert Zadrazil. Supervisory Board of the media owner: Erich Hampel (Chairman of the Supervisory Board), Paolo Fiorentino (Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board), Candido Fois, Karl Guha, Jean Pierre Mustier, Roberto Nicastro, Vittorio Ogliengo, Franz Rauch, Karl Samstag, Wolfgang Sprißler, Ernst Theimer, Wolfgang Heinzl, Adolf Lehner, Emmerich Perl, Barbara Wiedernig, Josef Reichl, Robert Traunwieser. Interests held in the media owner pursuant to Section of the Austrian Media Act: UniCredit S.p.A. holds 99.99% of the shares in the media owner (key details of the shareholder structure of UniCredit S.p.A. are available at Betriebsratsfonds des Betriebsrats der Angestellten der UniCredit Bank Austria AG, Region Wien (the Employees Council Fund of the Employees Council of employees of UniCredit Bank Austria AG in the Vienna area) and Privatstiftung zur Verwaltung von Anteilsrechten (a private foundation under Austrian law; founder: Anteilsverwaltung-Zentralsparkasse; beneficiary: WWTF Wiener Wissenschafts-, Forschungsund Technologiefonds) have a combined interest of.% in the media owner. Bank Austria page September