Financials/Val. FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E. and Suzuki Motor Corporation (13% stake). The company is India s leading 150
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1 30Nov17 Company Data CMP 263 Target Price 297 Previous Target Price NA Upside 1 52wk Range H/L 291/147 Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 1,578 Av. Volume (,000) 19 RoE to improve sharply in FY19 RoE 25% Key Highlights of the Report: The company reported healthy revenue growth of YoY in 2QFY18, primarily driven by strong passenger vehicle sales during the quarter. INDUSTRY BLOOMBERG AUTO ANCILLARY SUBR IN BSE Code NSE Code NIFTY SUBROS EBITDA Margin improved by 48bps YoY and 30bps QoQ to 11.9% mainly on account of increasing localization and benefit of operating leverage. SUBROS is the market leader in the Indian passenger vehicle AC with a market share of approx 4. Maruti Suzuki is the biggest client for the company which contributes 7 of the SUBROS topline. We expect RoE of and 2 in FY18 and FY19 respectively. Based on the strong demand outlook of passenger vehicle industry and new launches by OEMs, we expect Revenue and PAT to grow at CAGR of 17% and 54% respectively, in FY1719E. Hence we value SUBROS at Rs.297 (17.2x FY19E EPS) and recommend ACCUMULATE rating on the stock. 5% 6% 7% Shareholding patterns % Financials/Val. FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Net Sales 1,202 1,311 1,554 1,858 2,138 EBITDA EBIT PAT QFY18 1QFY18 4QFY17 EPS (Rs) Promoters EPS growth (%) 4% 2 88% 31% 76% Public ROE (%) 6% 7% 1 2 Total ROCE (%) 1 16% 21% 31% BV Stock Performance % P/B (X) Mn 3Mn 1Yr P/E (x) Absolute (3.4) Rel.to Nifty (3.4) ABOUT THE COMPANY Subros Ltd (SUBROS) was established in 1985 as a JV between Suri 170 SUBROS NIFTY Group (4 stake), Denso Corporation (technology partner; 1 stake), 160 and Suzuki Motor Corporation (1 stake). The company is India s leading 150 manufacturer of automotive AC systems, with a market share of It has four manufacturing facilities in India (Noida, Manesar, Pune, Chennai and Sanand) and has an annual capacity of mn AC kits. The company has the capability to manufacture compressors, condensers, heat exchangers, and all the connecting elements that are required to complete the AC loop. The main clientele include: Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Force motors, Ashok Leyland, Nissan, Indian railways etc. NAVEEN KUMAR DUBEY Naveen.dubey@narnolia.com
2 Quarterly Performance Financials 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 YoY % QoQ% FY16 FY17 YoY % Net Sales ,311 1,554 19% Other Income 2 (0) % 421% COGS ,067 21% Employee Cost % 9% % Other Expenses % EBITDA Depreciation % 8% EBIT % Interest % 9% % PBT % Exceptional Item Tax (1) (1) (1) % 2 (5) 299% PAT Healthy revenue growth of YoY driven by strong PV sales The company reported healthy revenue growth of YoY in 2QFY18, which was primarily driven by strong passenger vehicle sales during the quarter. Subros contributes around 7 of Maruti's sales volume and Maruti grew handsomely by 19%YoY during 2QF18. Strong demand for premium segment cars coupled with festive season led to this growth. New launches from other OEMs (Tiago and Kwid) have also fared well for the company. EBITDA grew by 2YoY to Rs.54 crores in 2QFY18. Increasing localisation and benefit of operating leverage during the quarter were the main reasons for growth in EBITDA. There was an exceptional item of Rs.92 lakhs which was related to the fire incident happened in Manesar plant in previous year. Tax rate for the quarter stood at Rs.8.28 crore, which was higher due to first time implication of Ind AS and reduction in R&D benefit. PAT grew by 2 YoY to Rs.15 crores in 2QFY18. Net sales trend COGS and Gross Margin trend Net sales Growth YoY COGS Gross Margin % 17% 9% 34% 1 29% 4 35% 3 25% 2 5% % 29% % 29% 34% % 3 29% 28% 27% 26%
3 (1) Operating leverage benefit drives margin in 2QFY18 Margin % 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 YoY(+/) QoQ(+/) FY16 FY17 YoY(+/) Gross Margin 29% % 29% 0.18% 2.1% 3 31% 1. EBITDA Margin 0.48% % PAT Margin 1% 1% 1.91% 0.5% 1% 0.9% Gross Margin contracted by 20bps YoY and 210bps QoQ due to higher commodity prices in 1QFY18. The major raw material for the company are Aluminium and Poly propelene. EBITDA Margin improved by 48bps YoY and 30bps QoQ mainly on account of benefit arises from operating leverage. PAT margin expanded by 191bps YoY and 50bps QoQ to 3.0. EBITDA and EBITDA Margin trend PAT and PAT Margin trend EBITDA(Rs. Crore) 1 1 EBITDA Margin % (2) (4) PAT(Rs. Crore) PAT Margin 1% 1% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% Concall Highlights: Market share 39% in passenger vehicle AC segment. Currently Cars and Non cars mix is 90:10 and the management expects mix to reach 80:20 in next 2 years. Radiator business revenue target for 2HFY18 would be Rs.110 crores and for FY19 Rs crores. Railways Business Revenue: Rs.2025 crores per annum going forward. EBITDA margin can move towards % range in next 2 years. The major drivers would be increase in the mix of new business and localisation. Debt reduction Rs.2025 crores in FY18 and Rs.5060 crores in FY19. Cost of borrowings 8.25%p.a. on new debt and it will further reduce in FY19 after the rating improvement. The government has made installation of AC or blowers in the truck cabins mandatory from 1st January Subros has already tied up with major OEMs (Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors, M&M, SML ISUZU) and as stated by the management Subros has market share of around 7 with these customers. Truck AC market: and Bus AC market: units (4 market share). Tax rate 3 for FY18. Capex guidance of Rs.74 crore for FY18. Large chunk of this capex will be spent on new product development and rest will be towards capacity bottlenecks. Current capacity utilization is around 9.
4 1,171 1,155 1,292 1,429 1,569 1,744 1, Investment Arguments: Single largest supplier to Maruti Suzuki: SUBROS is the largest supplier of Passenger vehicle air conditioners systems to Maruti and caters almost 7 of Maruti's volume. In the recent past the company remained the biggest beneficiary of successful model launches from Maruti and currently it caters all the well liked models; Alto, Baleno, Brezza, Dzire and Swift. Going forward we expect Maruti's volumes to grow at CAGR for next two years based on the strong demand outlook. Mandatory AC or Blower units for Truck cabins: Government has mandated Air conditioner or blower facility in M&HCVs from 1st Jan The company has already tied up with major OEMs like; Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors, SML Isuzu and M&M. As per management the incremental market for Truck AC is around K trucks per year. Localisation to play vital role in Gross Margin improvement: Subros has focused approach to increase localisation in order to reduce material cost and this exercise can shoot up the gross margin by bps in next 23 years. Currently the raw material import is about 4245% of total RM cost but the management has clear strategy to bring it down to 3 in next two year time by increasing in house manufacturing of critical components like evaporators and heat exchangers. Capacity expansion drive inline with Maruti Suzuki: The capacity expansion plan is also on cards inline with Maruti Suzuki which will complete by FY19. Currently, the company has mn units per annum capacity and it will become 1.75 mn units per annum by FY19. The expansion is taking place in its Gujarat plant, which supplies to Maruti for its Baleno models. Thus SUBROS is making itself ready to serve Maruti's future requirement. Maruti Suzuki volume growth to continue Capacity Utilization to improve going ahead Volume (in thousand) Growth YoY Capacity (in mn units) Utilization Trend 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, % 1 9% 14% 1 8% 6% 4% 4% % 61% 64% 74% Sharp reduction in imported raw materials Car AC component value share Imported Indigenous Compressor HVAC Hose pipe & Tubes Condenser % 54% 5 45% 46% 47% 51% 49% 4 57% %
5 Strong cash generation will lead to reduction in debt Return ratios to improve sharply in FY19 Debt to Equity RoCE RoE % 3 25% 2 5% 1 6% 7% 16% 4% 21% 31% 2 View & Valuation SUBROS is the market leader in the Indian passenger vehicle AC with a market share of approx 4. Maruti Suzuki is the biggest client for the company which contributes 7 of the SUBROS topline. Passenger vehicle industry is set to grow at 101 CAGR for next 34 years, considering the lower car penetration, improving rural income and new launches by OEMs. However, Maruti has set an ambitious target to sell 2 million cars by Therefore, capacity expansion plan of SUBROS is also on cards inline with Maruti Suzuki which will complete by FY19. The government has mandated Air conditioner or blower facility in M&HCVs from 1st Jan The company has already tied up with major OEMs and as per management the incremental market for Truck AC is around K trucks per year. The management is also focusing on to increase localization in order to reduce material cost and this exercise can shoot up the gross margin by bps in next 23 years. The company has also forayed into new business verticals like; Home AC, Refrigerated trucks and Railways segment. Currently, these segments contribute around 78% of total revenues but in next 2 years, the contribution is likely to increase in the range of 152. Based on the strong demand outlook of passenger vehicle industry and new launches by OEMs, we expect Revenue and PAT to grow at CAGR of 17% and 54% respectively, in FY1719E. We expect RoE of 2 in FY19E. Hence we value SUBROS at Rs.297 (17.2x FY19E EPS) and recommend ACCUMULATE rating on the stock.
6 Financials Snap Shot Income Statement Rs in Crores Key Ratios Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Revenue from Operation 1,311 1,554 1,858 2,138 ROE 7.1% 12.9% Change (%) 9% 19% 2 ROCE 12.5% 15.6% 21.1% 30.7% Other Operating Income Asset Turnover EBITDA Debtor Days Change (%) 17% 3 Inventory Days Margin (%) 1 1 Payable Days Dep & Amortization Interest Coverage EBIT P/E Interest & other finance cost Price / Book Value Other Income EV/EBITDA EBT Exceptional Item 31 2 Tax 2 (5) Assumptions Minority Int & P/L share of Ass. Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Reported PAT Revenue 1,311 1,554 1,858 2,138 Adjusted PAT Revenue Growth 9% 19% 2 Change (%) % COGS (% of Revenue) 67% 69% 71% 7 Margin(%) 1% 5% Capex(Rs crore) Debt (Rs. Crore) Balance Sheet Rs in Crores Cash Flow Statement Rs in Crores Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Share Capital PBT Reserves (inc)/dec in Working Capital 3 (26) 32 6 Networth Non Cash Op Exp Debt Interest Paid (+) Other Non Current Liab Tax Paid (6) (2) (26) (45) Total Capital Employed others Net Fixed Assets (incl CWIP) CF from Op. Activities Non Current Investments (inc)/dec in FA & CWIP (70) (142) (80) (60) Other Non Current Assets Free Cashflow 82 (31) Non Current Assets (Pur)/Sale of Investment Inventory others 0 66 Debtors CF from Inv. Activities (69) (76) (80) (60) Cash & Bank inc/(dec) in NW Other Current Assets inc/(dec) in Debt (30) 10 (75) (50) Current Assets Interest Paid (47) (45) (34) (34) Creditors Dividend Paid (inc tax) (5) (6) (14) (25) Provisions others 7 Other Current Liabilities CF from Fin. Activities (82) (34) (123) (109) Curr Liabilities Inc(Dec) in Cash (0) Net Current Assets (1) 1 (26) 26 Add: Opening Balance Total Assets 1,001 1,150 1,215 1,324 Closing Balance
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Narnolia Securities Ltd. NAVEEN KUMAR DUBEY 01-Feb-18
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For private circulation only Volume No. I Issue No. 22 Maruti Suzuki India Smooth road ahead Price: Rs 2386 Target Price: Rs 2800 Sensex: 24,693 Nifty: 7,367 FINANCIAL SUMMARY SALES OPM (%) OP OTHER INC.
More informationMaruti Suzuki India Ltd. Auto BUY RETAIL EQUITY RESEARCH. 21 st November 2018 Q2FY19 RESULT UPDATE. CMP Rs. 7,332 TARGET Rs.
Q2FY19 RESULT UPDATE RETAIL EQUITY RESEARCH Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. Auto BSE CODE: 532500 NSE CODE: MARUTI Bloomberg CODE: MSIL:IN SENSEX: 35,475 BUY Rating as per Largecap 12months investment period
More informationMaruti Suzuki. CMP:Rs1,327 TP:Rs1,625 Buy
25 April 2011 4QFY11 Results Update Sector: Automobiles Maruti Suzuki BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 19,584 5,875 Bloomberg MSIL IN Diluted Equity Shares (m) 289.0 52-Week Range (Rs) 1,600/1,126 1,6,12 Rel.Perf.(%)
More informationQuarterly result- Revenues in line with our Expectations, Profits Disappoint.
Recommendation HOLD Snapshot CMP (09/06/2010) Rs. 1295 Maruti Suzuki India Limited, a subsidiary of Suzuki Motor Corporation Sector Auto of Japan, is the leader in the Indian car market with 54% market
More informationMaruti Suzuki. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Healthy operating performance; Accumulate October 28, 2016 Rohan Korde rohankorde@plindia.com +91 22 66322235 Rating Accumulate Price Rs5,860 Target Price Rs6,356 Implied Upside 8.5% Sensex 27,916 Nifty
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May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 4QFY2018 Result Update Cons. Durable May 16, 2018 Blue Star Ltd Performance Update 4QFY18 4QFY17 % chg. (yoy)
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Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 1QFY2019 Result Update Cons. Durable August 10, 2018 Blue Star Ltd Performance
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More information26 October 2018 Reuters: MRTI.BO; Bloomberg: MSIL IN
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STOCK POINTER Swaraj Engines Ltd. BUY Target Price `656 CMP `41 FY14 PE 6.9x Index Details Sensex 17,853 Nifty 5,39 BSE 1 5,367 Industry Auto parts Scrip Details Mkt Cap (` cr) 59 BVPS (`) 161 O/s Shares
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4 Recommendation CMP Target Price Sector Stock Details BUY Rs. 25 Rs.31 Metals Moderate Quarter Pennar Industries has reported a moderate consolidated quarter due to lower demand in the auto, engineering,
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More informationKEI Industries BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `433 `508. 4QFY2018 Result Update Cable. Historical share price chart.
May- Aug- Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 4QFY2018 Result Update Cable May 21, 2018 KEI Industries Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY18 4QFY17 % yoy 3QFY18
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: price: EPS: How does our one year outlook change? We maintain our negative stance on SKF India due to the absence of significant growth momentum drivers over the medium term. While railways could be
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2QFY18 Result Update Power Mech Projects 23 November 217 Reuters: POMP.BO; Bloomberg: POWM IN Strong Business Scalability Likely; Retain Buy Power Mech Projects (PMPL) posted 2QFY18 consolidated revenues
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