Pennar Industries Ltd.

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1 4 Recommendation CMP Target Price Sector Stock Details BUY Rs. 25 Rs.31 Metals Moderate Quarter Pennar Industries has reported a moderate consolidated quarter due to lower demand in the auto, engineering, railways and infrastructure sectors for the steel products which includes steel strips and engineered profiles. We believe the scenario looks challenging in near term due to subdued performance by the heavy engineering segment and overall slower growth in the infrastructure in India though we draw comfort on the steady performance in PEBS. However, BSE Code EV/EBITDA of 3.8x FY13E and 3.3x FY14E broadly factors the challenging scenario. NSE Code Bloomberg Code PENNARSTEEL PSL IN Market Cap (Rs cr) 305 Free Float (%) 59.8% 52- wk HI/Lo (Rs) 35/24 Avg. volume BSE (Quarterly) Face Value (Rs) 5.0 Dividend (FY 12) 20% Shares o/s (Crs) 12.2 Relative Performance 1Mth 3Mth 1Yr Pennar -11.0% -5.5% -23.3% Sensex -1.3% 3.4% 9.3% Shareholding Pattern 31 st Dec 12 Indian Promoters Holding 40.2% Institutional (Incl. FII) 30.6% Corporate Bodies 11.0% Public & others 18.2% Ruchita Maheshwari Research Analyst ( ) (ruchita.maheshwari@nirmalbang.com) Year Net Sales Growth % EBIDTA EBIDTAM (%) PAT PATM (%) Net Sales was flat YoY to Rs crore and up by 2.5% QoQ. The sales improved due to the growth in Tubes by 66% YoY, Industrial Components by 30.8% YoY and System Projects divisions by 17.4%. The Consolidated EBITDA fell by 17.5% YoY to Rs crore and was flattish QoQ basis. The EBIDTA margin fell by 210bps to 10.4% in Q3FY13 as against 12.5% in Q3FY12 and down by 30bps QoQ basis. This was primarily due to margin pressures in the Systems and Projects, Engineered Profiles and Cold Rolled Steel Strips businesses. The Adj PAT declined by 19.9% YoY to Rs crore and down by 3.5% QoQ. The PAT margin stood at 4.1% in Q3FY13 as against 5% in Q3FY12 and 4.3% in Q2FY13. Decline in tax rate supported the steep fall in profitability of the company. Tax rate stood at 30.9% in Q3FY13 as against 33% in Q3FY12 though tax rate was low at 24.8% in Q2FY13 as compared to Q3FY13. The fluctuation in tax rate is attributed to the tax benefit in PEBS for the period of five years which is valid till PEBS, a subsidiary of Pennar Industries has reported a consistent performance, contributed to 25.4% of total consolidated Net Sales in Q3FY13 up from 22.8% in Q3FY12 and 24.1% in Q2FY13. The Net sale was Rs crore, up by 10.4% YoY and 7.9% QoQ. An EBITDA margin was 10.6%, down by 70bps YoY. The order book at PEBS currently stands at Rs. 235 crore. We are of the view that this segment has the capacity to outperform other segments though margins will remain under pressure due to the increase in competition from its peers. Valuation & Recommendation At CMP of Rs. 25, Pennar is trading at a P/E of 6.6x FY13E and 5.8x FY14E. The EV/EBITDA is 3.8x FY13E and 3.3x FY14E. The company has been able to maintain the top-line during the quarter but the pressure on operating margin continues, which is a matter of concern. We have introduced FY14E estimates where we expect net revenue to grow by 8.6% to Rs crore on account of benefit of capacity expansion in PEBS Gujarat from 60000MTPA to 90000MTPA and solar segment. We rollover our target multiple from FY13E to FY14E to a target of Rs. 31 per share (Rs. 29 per share), valued on an EV/EBITDA 4x FY14E and recommend BUY rating. EPS (Rs.) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE FY % % % % FY % % % % FY13E % % % % FY14E % % % % 1 P a g e

2 Strategic Initiatives Expansion of PEBS capacity: The Company is in the final stages of signing a deal for expansion of the capacity by an additional 30,000 MTPA to 90,000 MTPA by commissioning a plant in the state of Gujarat in Northern India. The company has taken a plant on lease for a period of 8 years which can be extendable thereafter. The company has to pay Rs. 3 cr of lease (includes rent, lease, etc) devoid of any escalation clause. The plant is expected to get commissioned by Q4FY13E and the full impact will be visible from FY14E onwards. Solar Power Plant: The Company has set up a captive solar power plant of 2.5 MW to achieve energy security and low cost power for its plants in Andhra Pradesh. Segmental Performance Industrial Components: The Industrial Components business (comprising of pressed steel precision components for Auto, Industrial and White Goods segments) recorded a strong growth in Net Sales of 30% over Q3FY12 with EBITDA also increasing 35% YoY. This was on account of increase in the number of customers as well as products. Systems & Projects: During the quarter, the Systems & Projects division (comprising of Railways and Solar businesses) 17% YoY sales growth was primarily driven by a 27% YoY growth in the Solar Structurals business. EBITDA, however, declined by 11% YoY due to decrease in the higher-margin Railways business and changed product mix. Engineered Profiles: The sales declined by 223% YoY and by 9% QoQ. Low demand from the Auto and the Buildings segments led to a decline in the Engineered Profiles division. The EBITDA margin faced pressure on account of lower realizations. Cold Rolled Steel Strips: The segment posted a 17% Net Sales decline, and registered a 36% decline in EBITDA. Though QoQ the EBITDA grew by 36% due to continued focus towards higher value-added products. The Net Sales grew by 2% QoQ. Tubes: Tubes division (comprising of CDW and other tubes) registered a growth of 66% YoY and was flat QoQ. EBITDA also posted a strong growth of 55% YoY and by 13% QoQ. Segment Break-up Segment Performance Sales EBITDA EBITDA (Margin) Q3FY13 Q3FY12 YoY% Q2FY13 QoQ% Q3FY13 Q3FY12 YoY% Q2FY13 QoQ% Q3FY13 Q3FY12 Q2FY13 Engineered Products % 58-9% % 5-4% 9% 13% 9% Cold Rolled Steel Strips % 52 2% % 3 36% 8% 11% 6% Tubes % 22 0% % 2 13% 8% 8% 7% Industrial Components % 19-15% % 3-21% 17% 16% 18% System & Projects % 47 21% % 7-6% 12% 15% 15% Total Standlone % 198 2% % 20 0% 10% 13% 10% PEBS % 63 8% 7 7 4% 7-3% 11% 11% 12% Sub Total % 261 3% % 28 0% 10% 13% 11% Regrouping Adjustments Total Consolidated % 260 2% % 28 0% 10% 13% 11% Source: Company & Nirmal Bang Research 2 P a g e

3 Q3FY13: Consolidated Result Analysis Particulars Q3FY13 Q3FY12 YoY% Q2FY13 QoQ% Gross Sales % % Less: Excise Duty % % Less: Sales Tax % % Net Sales % % Raw Material Consumed % % Stock Adjustment Employee Expenses % % Other Expenses % % TOTAL EXPENDITURE % % EBITDA % % Interest % % Other Income % % EBDT % % Depreciation % % PBT % % Tax Deferred Tax Reported Profit After Tax % % Minority Interest Adjusted Profit After Minority Interest % % EPS (Unit Curr.) Equity BPS BPS EBITDA(%) 10.4% 12.5% % -30 PBT(%) 7.9% 7.9% 0 7.9% 0 PAT(%) 4.1% 5.0% % -20 S Source: Company and Nirmal Bang Research 3 P a g e

4 Consolidated Financials Profitability (Rs. In Cr) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Balance Sheet (Rs. In Cr) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Y/E - March Share Capital Revenues - Net Peference Share Capital % change 51.5% 4.9% -11.8% 8.6% Reserves & Surplus EBITDA Net Worth Interest Minority Interest Other Income Total Loans EBDT Net Deferred Tax Assets Depreciation Total Liabilities Extraordinary/Exceptional Net Fixed Assets PBT Investments Tax CWIP PAT Misc Exps Not W/off Share of Profit & loss Inventories Minority Interest in Income Sundry Debtors Adj PAT Cash & Bank Shares o/s ( No. in Cr.)* Loans & Advances EPS C A L&A Adj EPS* CL & P Cash EPS Working Capital DPS (Rs.) Misc Exp Quarterly (Rs. In Cr) Mar.12 Jun.12 Sep.12 Dec.12 Total Assets Net Revenue Cash Flow (Rs. In Cr) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E EBITDA Operating Interest Profit Before Tax EBDT Direct Taxes paid Dep Depreciation Other Inc Change in WC Extraordinary Interest Expenses PBT Other Operating Activities Tax CF from Operation PAT from ordinary activities Investment Minority Interest Capex PAT Other Investment EPS (Rs.) Total Investment Operational Ratio FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Free Cash Flow EBITDA margin (%) 12.4% 10.6% 10.5% 10.5% Financing Adj.PAT margin (%) 6.2% 4.9% 4.1% 4.4% Equity raised/(repaid) Adj.PAT Growth (%) 49.5% -16.7% -25.3% 14.2% Inc/Dec in Reserves Price Earnings (x) Proceeds from Issue of Shares Book Value (Rs.) Debt raised/(repaid) ROCE (%) 34.3% 27.4% 20.8% 22.2% Dividend (incl. tax) paid RONW (%) 30.6% 21.3% 14.0% 14.3% Deferred Revenue Exp Debt Equity Ratio Interest Expenses Price / Book Value (x) Cash Flow from Financing Activities EV / Sales Net Cash Flow EV / EBIDTA Beginning Cash Flow Cash as reported in Balance Sheet Source: Company and Nirmal Bang Research 4 P a g e

5 Disclaimer: This Document has been prepared by Nirmal Bang Research (A Division of Nirmal Bang Securities PVT LTD). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Nirmal Bang Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Nirmal Bang Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Nirmal Bang Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in anyway be responsible for the contents stated herein. Nirmal Bang Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. Nirmal Bang Research, its affiliates and their employees may from time to time hold positions in securities referred to herein. Nirmal Bang Research or its affiliates may from time to time solicit from or perform investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document. Nirmal Bang Research (Division of Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt. Ltd.) B-2, 301/302, Marathon Innova, Opp. Peninsula Corporate Park Off. Ganpatrao Kadam Marg Lower Parel (W), Mumbai Board No. : /8001 Fax. : P a g e

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