Discussion of Herkenhoff Philips Cohen-Cole (2016) The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Employment, Earnings, and Entrepreneurship
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1 Discussion of Herkenhoff Philips Cohen-Cole (2016) The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Employment, Earnings, and Entrepreneurship Owen Zidar Chicago Booth and NBER Washington Center for Equitable Growth 2016 Grantee Conference September 2016 Owen Zidar Chicago Booth and NBER WCEG Discussion September / 1
2 Overview Interesting paper! 1 Policy Relevant Question: How does bankruptcy flag removal affect employment, earnings, and entrepreneurship? 2 Big data lift: link individual credit data to LEHD employment and earnings & ILBD firm ownership 3 Clever idea: Exploit timing of bankruptcy flag removal 4 Interesting Results: Small impacts on employment rate, earnings, ownership rate Despite small impacts on stocks, larger flows into and out of self-employment and ownership Owen Zidar Chicago Booth and NBER WCEG Discussion September / 1
3 Main Comments 1 Effect size: embrace the zero 2 Identify economic determinants of impacts by using treatment intensity and/or initial characteristics to isolate demand shocks 3 Restrict focus to key stock outcomes (or directly motivate flows ) 4 Exploit richness of data and design to address pre-trend concerns Owen Zidar Chicago Booth and NBER WCEG Discussion September / 1
4 1. Effect size: how big are the ( stock ) effects? 1 Sizable first stage Credit score increases approx 50 units 2 Small Impacts on Employment, Earnings, Entrepreneurship Formal employment rate increases 0.3 p.p. (base 78.7%) Zero impact on self-employment rate Earnings fall $700 and have pre-trends [in appendix B!] (base $33K) Firm ownership increases roughly 0.04 pp (base 0.3 %) My take: small effects are interesting, policy-relevant Owen Zidar Chicago Booth and NBER WCEG Discussion September / 1
5 2. Economic determinants of small impacts 1 Why are there small impacts? Offsetting labor supply and demand effects? Labor demand increases ( credit-check effect) Labor supply decreases ( credit-access effect) 2 How big are the supply shocks? What does 50 units of credit score mean for predicted default rates or borrowing limits? 3 Isolate demand shocks Pre-treatment borrowing capacity: estimate impacts for those who were below credit limits (and thus not credit supply constrained) Treatment intensity: do those who had small impacts on credit score and borrowing (and thus had small credit supply change) have similar labor market outcomes? Owen Zidar Chicago Booth and NBER WCEG Discussion September / 1
6 3. Outcome selection Second half of paper focuses on flows 1 Would help to clarify specific motivation and policy relevance of flows 2 Missing Entrepreneurs? If we are missing substantial opportunities, wouldn t we see big gains in employment growth and wagebill? Can t reject zero impact; sole prop income increases $1K 3 Misallocation? If there is sizable misallocation, wouldn t we see big wage (earnings) impacts? Earnings increase $1.7K, but some concern about pre-trends and cohort effects Owen Zidar Chicago Booth and NBER WCEG Discussion September / 1
7 Source: CMPPSYZZ (2016) Owen Zidar Chicago Booth and NBER WCEG Discussion September / 1 3a. Schedule C income is small share of business income Percentage of Total Net Business Income Year Sole Proprietorships Partnerships S Corporations C Corporations
8 3b. Concern about pre-trends in earnings Owen Zidar Chicago Booth and NBER WCEG Discussion September / 1
9 4. Exploit richness of data and setting Suppose Earnings = t + 2 Treat + ε Owen Zidar Chicago Booth and NBER WCEG Discussion September / 1
10 4. Exploit richness of data and setting Showing means by cohort year: shows pre-trends more transparently clarifies exactly which groups you are comparing provides different control groups for subsamples of interest (e.g. those transitioning into self-employment) enables within-bankruptcy-year-cohort comparisons by doing this type of table for Chapter 13 (who get flags removed after 7 years) vs Chapter 7 Can use this setup and minimum distance to estimate treatment effects Owen Zidar Chicago Booth and NBER WCEG Discussion September / 1
11 Conclusion 1 Interesting question with interesting results: evidence seems consistent with small impacts on labor market outcomes 2 Can focus more on policy-relevant outcomes and economic determinants 3 Exploit richness of data and design by looking at specific cohorts and comparing outcomes for 7 vs 10 year flag removal to try to address pre-trend concerns Owen Zidar Chicago Booth and NBER WCEG Discussion September / 1
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