Testing the predictions of the Solow model: What do the data say?

Transcription

1 Testing the predictions of the Solow model: What do the data say?

2 Prediction n 1 : Conditional convergence: Countries at an early phase of capital accumulation tend to grow faster than countries at a later phase of capital accumulation. Here, early phase of capital accumulation means: greater distance from the steady state, that is, log y i,t * logy i,t is larger log y i,t * logy i,t may be larger because: (a) initial condition logy i,t is lower (b) steady state y i,t * is higher

3 Cross country regression b 1 = (1 α)(n + g + δ) Solow s model prediction is : b 1 < 0 b

4 Slope of regression line is the empirical estimate of coefficient b1

5 Slope of regression line is the empirical estimate of coefficient b 1 The data say that after conditioning for: (a) different propensity to save (b) different efficiency A t across countries across countries b 1 < 0 as expected: conditional convergence b 1 < than predicted value (1 α)(n + g + δ) (in advanced countries)

6 Testing Prediction n 2: to what extent the distribution of GDP per capita across countries reflects capital accumulation? That is, countries different propensity to save (investment ratio)?,, / log y i *(t) = loga t + log notice that is here uniform across countries Predictions : 1. Coefficient of > 0 2. Coefficient of log < 0 3. Coefficient of = Coefficient of log 4. coefficient =

7 Implied α

8 Predictions 1, 2, 3, are corroborated. Prediction 4 is not : estimated coefficient of log s i > 1 is far larger than expected value (in competitive economies α 0.33 is share of capital income in GDP). Equivalently : estimated value of α = 0.59 is far higher than expected (0.33)

9 Remark:, MPK = α in competitive economy: capital rental RK = K MPK = α R = r + δ

10 General motivation Can we explain the cross country distribution of GDP per capita with a broader theory of capital accumulation? The assumption that the quality of labor is homogeneous across countries is too simplistic Human knowledge (human competence) accumulates through time, just as any other producible factor If capital is interpreted in the broader sense of physical + human capital the output elasticity of capital (the fraction of capital income in GDP) is plausibly much higher than This may reconcile the Solow model predictions with the empirical facts.

11 The model

12 Remark: according to MRW the technology to produce H and K are identical. Both forms of capital result directly from investment of final output in the accumulation of stocks. H s Y H Net investment in education h h Net investment in machinery k k K s Y K Assume for simplicity same rate of depreciation: δ h = δ k = δ

13 let: ; in steady state: Solving for k* and h* we obtain / / / /

14 1 h 1 k y*( t) A( t) s s ng ng log y*( t) log A( t) log s k log s h [ n g ] elasticity / of / y / relative / to/ sk 1 elasticity / of / y / relative / to/ sh 1 Remark: the augmented Solow model is a true generalization of Solow 1956: by assuming β = 0, the last term vanishes and we are back in the Solow model.

15 Countries differ in terms of technology A j (t) saving rates s k, j and s h, j, and population growth rates n j.

16 Technology: A j = ε j A where ε is an exogenous i. i. d. technology shock This means initial technology explanatory variables s k and s h. A j is assumed uncorrelated to the exogenous

17 Focus on a world in which convergence to steady state has already taken place.. the estimated equation for the H augmented Solow model is : log y jt, * C log s, log s, [ n g ], C = constant is uniform across countries! k j h j j j t

18 Implied α Implied β Observations

19 Findings on H augmented Solow the implied α is now consistent with the evidence α 0.3

20

21 estimate of β is too large check predictions following from estimates of α and β against microeconometric evidence of earning and marginal productivity effects of education: If markets are competitive as assumed in the model, the marginal productivity effects of education should be reflected by the earnings of educated and noneducated workers. This provides a way of estimating the size of β from microeconomic evidence This check suggests that the MRW estimate of β is too large! A related problem is that regression results are very sensitive to the way in which we measure human capital H

22 Conclusion on Solow with physical and human capital It is hard to explain cross-country differences in GDP per capita, only in terms of their differences concerning the ratio (physical capital formation) and the investment in education. We have to admit that a fundamental reason why GDP per capita differs across-countries is that there are differences in technology We need a theory to explain why

23 E. Prescott (1998) performs a calibration analysis based on the augmented Solow model, and confirms the above conclusion Prescott s intangible capital Human capital is but one form of intangible capital which is largely unmeasured and missing in government statistics. Intangible capital includes not only school training to population in working age, but also on the job training, firm specific learning by doing, organization capital, and various forms of unmeasured R&D investment. Unmeasured investments I in official statistics imply that there is also unmeasured output Y, because Y = C + I. The unconventional part of Prescott s calibration exercise is addressed at dealing with this problem, but we skip this for simplicity.

24 Prescott s argument ln yj* = costant + (1 α β) 1 [αlnskj + βlnshj (α + β)ln(n + g +)] +εj According to IMF estimates physical capital investment as a share of GDP is about 20% for rich and poor countries after This implies that, countries do not differ much in their investment ratios s k. Thus the burden of explaining cross country differences in ln yj* falls largely on the human capital investment share s h. If we preserve the share s h in a plausible range for rich and poor countries, it is required that the elasticity β of output with respect to intangible capital H is very high, indeed higher than is suggested by available evidence.

25 Prescott s Conclusion: The burden of explaining per capita income differences must partly fall on understanding why the constant in equation (18) is NOT uniform across countries, that is, what is needed, is a theory about efficiency. Prescott holds to the basic neoclassical assumption that technical knowledge is transferable across countries at low cost: International differences in total factor productivity must be explained through institutionally based differences in work practices, not in useful knowledge. These differences affect the level of A

26 One approach to explaining why technology A differs across countries is making A endogenous Example where is an externality effect: a higher K/L ratio in the economy increases firm level efficiency the special case α + β = 1 yields

27 Inada conditions are not fulfilled! 1 Devide by

28 1 1 persistent growth of per capita output if That is if 1 1 1

29 Persistent growth in the Y = AK model

30 Why doesn t capital [and human capital] flow from rich to poor countries? (R. Lucas, 1990) Unlike in MRW, countries are not islands Financial capital and human capital flow across countries. If we assume that financial and human capital flow where returns are higher, we should expect a tendency towards the equalization of the rates on returns on both forms of capital. Neoclassical model with financial flows assumes perfect mobility of financial capital equalization of rates of returns is instantaneous Lucas 1990 reply draws upon his 1988 human capital model. It is a two sector AK model

31 Lucas 1988 assumes: Final output Y produced by human and physical capital (no raw labour) no exogenous technological progress human capital accumulation equation different from MRW 1 t t (1) Y t K t uhl t h t (1 u t ) h t (2) A and are exogenous constants expressing total factor productivities in the output and h sector, respectively. h is per capita human capital u is fraction of time spent by h in final output sector L is population growing at the exponential rate n

32 Divide equation (1) by L, and define y = Y/L, k = K/L (capital per worker) y = k α (uh) (1 α) (3) h t (1 u t ) h t endogenous growth is related to the linear structure of system (3), (3 ) In particular g h * = θ(1 u*) Since human capital production is linear with respect to h input, the steady state growth rate g* is determined by the steady state fraction of time (1 u*) spent accumulating h. u* is an endogenous decision variable, that depends on preferences!! (3 )

33 y = k α (uh) (1 α) g y = αg k + (1 α)(g u + g h ) (4) in steady state: g y * = g k *, g u * = 0, u(t) = u* = constant (5) (1 α) g y * = (1 α) g h * g y * = g h * Growth of output per capita is explained by growth of human capital per person

34 g y * = g h * g h * = θ(1 u*) In a optimizing framework, u(t) and u* depend on preferences: Other things equal, lower u(t) today implies: higher future human capital stock h(t + dt) lower per capita output y(t), and per capita consumption c(t) today

35 1 Lucas (1) y t kt uh t t 1 t y t k t A Solow now compare output per worker in USA and India, y USA_1980 / y India_ (Summers and Heston 1988, pp 18 21)

36 Solow model: with A t uniform in USA and India implies huge differences in the rates of return to k. If A t is uniform, and constant we can normalize A t = 1. y t k t k t y 1/ The gross rate of return to K is r = αk α 1 (α 1)/α = αy Lucas takes α = 0.4 (average of US and India capital shares) r r India USA = y y India USA ( 1)/ = t 1 15 ( 1)/ 58

37 Lucas model Dividing equation (1) by the stock H Y = uhl of human capital in Y sector Output per efficient worker in Y sector is: where output per efficient worker in y sector capital per efficient worker in y sector the marginal product of capital is: / α α / (6)

38 To estimate output per efficient worker Lucas has to resort to 1959 estimates by Ann Krueger: After taking into account education attainments, the ratio of output per efficient worker in 1959 USA and India is y uh y uh USA India 3. Notice that if we consider output per capita instead of output per efficient worker, the ratio would be far higher, because average education attainment in 1959 USA is far higher than in 1959 India

39 With = 0.4 (average of USA and India capital shares) this gives: r r USA India = / = y uh y uh USA India ( 1)/ 3 1/ 1/5 Lucas observes that the ratio is still too large to be consistent with the evidence on capital flows.

40 For this reason, he adds an externality in equation (1): 1 t t (1) Y t K t uhl t h 1 y t k t uh t t h so that output per efficient worker is now: / / the reason for the externality is that private human capital accumulation augments the socially available useful knowledge, which increases the productivity of private factors in the output sector. The productivity of one worker increases if the average education attainment and productivity of the workers she is working with is higher. (6 )

41 From Denison s USA data concerning , Lucas estimates the external effect A 10% increase in the average quality of those with whom I work increases my productivity by 3.6%. the net MPK and interest rate is now r = α (*) / / (**) Substitute for k in equation * from equation ** r = α / / = α / /

42 Lucas 1990 indication: 1. On the crucial assumption that socially available useful knowledge is country specific, in the sense that there are not knowledge spillovers across countries, the estimated exactly eliminates the [capital] return differential in a 1959 India U.S. comparison. 2. To explain per capita income differences between the rich countries and those that, unlike modern India, have failed to enter the mechanism of modern economic growth, we must break free of the straight jacket of the convex neoclassical model without externalities. Problem: As Lucas admits, the weakness in this argument is that it does not provide an explanation of why the poorest nations are unable to exploit useful knowledge created outside.