INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED ( IAG ) PRESENTATION BY HEAD OF REINSURANCE TO INVESTORS

Transcription

1 Insurance Australia Group Limited 388 George Street Sydney NSW 2000 Telephone iag.com.au 6 May 2005 Manager, Company Announcements Office Australian Stock Exchange Limited Level 4, Exchange Centre 20 Bridge Street SYDNEY NSW 2000 Dear Sir/Madam INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED ( IAG ) PRESENTATION BY HEAD OF REINSURANCE TO INVESTORS Mr Jan van der Schalk, Head of Reinsurance at IAG will be making a presentation to a group of investors at a conference today. The materials he will be using are attached for information. Yours sincerely Anne O Driscoll Group Company Secretary & Head of Investor Relations Attached: 14 pages N:\CSCDept\CSCUser\ASX\2005\IAG\MAY\ Reinsurance Presentation.doc

2 IAG Jan van der Schalk, Head of Reinsurance 6 May 2005

3 IAG Reinsurance as capital IAG Re why & how Modelling catastrophies Counterparty credit valuation 2

4 Reinsurance within IAG Provision of capital Purchase protection against extreme, severe events (> 1:100 probability) Core risk management tool Earnings volatility mitigation Smooth unexpected deviations from budgeted loss ratios (max retained loss from single event = 2% of net earned premiums) Enables businesses to have greater certainty of results Achieve greater capital efficiency Reinsurance can be used to minimise/optimise the capital we put at risk through borrowing our counterparties capital at a discount to our capital cost 3

5 IAG Re: how it works IAG commercial IMA PLI -- IAG & CGU Marine Aus commercial surplus IAG Re MAIN CAT: $3.4bn xs $100m LAWNMOWER: Various covers giving both vertical and sideways protection Commercial motor Various NZI NZ commercial surplus Individual entities retain risk based on their capital and risk appetite the chart reflects the group perspective 4

6 IAG Re governance Domiciled in Ireland, separate Board with 3 external Directors APRA regulated Direct report to Deputy-CEO Strategy and execution approved by IAG s ALCo (executives) and RMCC (IAG non-executive directors) 5

7 IAG Re & Canberra bushfires How does it operate? With Canberra IAG $110m Business Unit/Entities CGU Gross: $20m No ri recovery IMA Gross: $85m After ri: $30m SGIO/SGIC Gross: $5m After ri: $3m NRMAI No loss Captive IAG Re Pays IMA $55m & SGIO/SGIC $2m =$57m Combines IAG Re loss of $57m with BU nets CGU $20m + IMA $30m+ SGIO/SGIC $3m =$53m and Recovers excess of $70m ( = $40m) IAG Re net: $17m ($57m less $40m) External Entities REINSURERS Pay all losses excess of $70m up to $110m i.e. $40m Premiums Claims Note: illustrative only these limits no longer apply 6

8 Reinsurance process Risk Assessment and Determination of reinsurance requirement of business units Rating and Pricing of these covers Determine parameters of DFA Analyse underwriting result for the risks taken Reinsurance Market conditions Determine the level of risk retention in IAG RE and Retrocession Minimum APRA Guidelines Formulate Placement policy and strategy Model final placements into the DFA IAG Risk Management Strategy Prepare required documentation and execute reinsurance transactions DFA = dynamic financial analysis of Group activities Analyse profit result and Capital Adequacy Efficiently manage all payments and receipts in respect of these transactions throughout the year 7

9 Catastrophe modelling IAG/CGU -- Australia and NZ combined Layer Limit Excess Fitted Expected Loss Costs B. Cost Other Aus Cyclone AUS eq Other NZ NZ eq Sum Reinst Adj % 1.68% 0.46% 1.93% 0.21% 0.88% 5.16% 5.16% AUSTRALIA Layer IAG Re RMS AIR IF Eqecat HailAUS Other Cyclone EQ Wind EQ Wind EQ Wind EQ Other Wind EQ % 0.60% 1.44% 2.00% 2.49% 0.14% 2.22% 0.53% 1.56% 1.01% 0.27% 7.97% 1.38% NEW ZEALAND Layer IAG Re RMS Eqecat AIR GAPQuake % 0.83% 1.32% 0.08% 1.00% 0.38% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Reliance on one model considered inappropriate Multiple models reviewed and blended model adopted 8

10 Catastrophe: Programme diagram $3,500m 1st event 2nd event 3rd event 4th event EQ only Australia $2,500m EQ only NZ All perils: ex NZ EQ 1st event layers split: a) 70% NZ EQ, no reinstatement b) All perils, ex NZ EQ, 1 (free) reinstatement APRA requires catastrophe cover to be purchased to cover single event risk to 1:250 year level $2,000m All perils: Aus & NZ 1,800m xs 200m IAG modelled limits exceed this by looking at it as 1:250 event on a whole of portfolio basis $200m $100m All perils:aus & NZ 100m xs 100m cost: $36m All: 25m xs 75m All: 25m xs 50m Aggregate cover: 150m xs 100m 9

11 Counterparty credit S&P rating trend Gross premiums: Top 20 reinsurers worldwide USD bn IAG Re catastrophe 2001: 69% >AA 2002: 68% >AA 2003: 46% >AA 2004: 64% >AA 2005: 70% >AA AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- NR

12 Counterparty credit a method for valuing reinsurance Cover Event probability band Limit ($ m's) Event probability Severity factor Adjusted CPR limit Modelling Systemic Total Catastrophe >20% 6 100% %-20% % %-10% % %-5% % <1% 0 1.0% Risk excess >30% % %-30% % 0.59 <5% % 2.00 Surplus largest Aus. Event limit % Wellington % Facultative largest ICA zone % Other % - Total 995 Counterparty limits are established for each type of cover reflecting the probability and severity of the event that would underlie claiming on the cover 11

13 Counterparty credit IAG Re model output Rating: Level Outlook Default probability S&P AA Negative 0.89% Bests A+ Stable 0.60% Moody's Aa2 Stable 0.81% Weighted default probability 0.77% CPR status Actual XOL Recoveries -- short 1.9 XOL Recoveries -- long 71.5 Prop / Fac 0.8 Other Recoveries -- xol 9.6 UEP XOL 16.2 UEP (Prop and Facultative) 3.7 Contingent short Contingent long This is the form of output that the model generates for each reinsurer to which it is applied Takes account of credit rating, debtors, IBNR/IBNER and live covers Adjusted CPR score 269 Maximum limit for rating: 276 Utilisation 97% 12

14 Conclusion Reinsurance is an integral part of IAG s capital and risk management Value add potential and sophistication have increased and continue to evolve 13

15 Questions