Madhya Pradesh Poorv Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Limited Block No. 7, Shakti Bhawan, Vidyut Nagar, Jabalpur

Transcription

1 ANNUAL REVENUE REQUIREMENT AND TARIFF PROPOSAL PETITION FOR FY Submitted By: Madhya Pradesh Power Management Company Limited Shakti Bhawan, Vidyut Nagar, Jabalpur Madhya Pradesh Poorv Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Limited Block No. 7, Shakti Bhawan, Vidyut Nagar, Jabalpur Madhya Pradesh Paschim Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Limited GPH Compound, Pologround, Indore Madhya Pradesh Madhya Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Limited Bijlee Nagar Colony, Nishtha Parisar, Govindpura, Bhopal

2 BEFORE THE HON BLE MADHYA PRADESH ELECTRICITY REGULATORY COMMISSION, BHOPAL Petition No. of 2014 (1) Madhya Pradesh Power Management Company Limited (MPPMCL) Shakti Bhawan, Vidyut Nagar, Jabalpur (MP) Petitioner (2) Madhya Pradesh Poorv Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Limited (MPPoKVVCL) Shakti Bhawan, Vidyut Nagar, Jabalpur (MP) Petitioner (3) Madhya Pradesh Paschim Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Limited (MPPaKVVCL) GPH, Polo Ground, Indore (MP) Petitioner (4) Madhya Pradesh Madhya Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Limited (MPMKVVCL) Nishtha Parisar, Bijlee Nagar, Govindpura, Bhopal (MP) Petitioner IN THE MATTER OF: Filing of ARR application for the distribution and retail supply business for the FY under tariff principles laid down in "The Madhya Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (Terms and Conditions for Determination of Tariff for supply and wheeling of Electricity and Methods and Principles of Fixation of Charges) Regulations, 2012 (RG -35 (I) of 2012)" by MPPMCL and MPPoKVVCL, MPPaKVVCL & MPMKVVCL as the Distribution Licensees. The Petitioners above respectfully submit as under:- 1. Madhya Pradesh Power Management Company Ltd., (hereinafter referred to as the 'Petitioner', MPPMCL, 'the Company' or 'the Licensee'), is a Company incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956 and having its registered office at Block No.11, Shakti Bhawan, Vidyut Nagar, Jabalpur. 2. Madhya Pradesh Poorv Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Ltd., (hereinafter referred to as the 'Petitioner', MPPKVVCL, 'the Company' or 'the Licensee' or East Discom ), is a Company incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956 and having its registered office at Block No.7, Shakti Bhawan, Vidyut Nagar, Jabalpur. The Petitioner is a deemed licensee under the Fifth Proviso to Section 14 of the Electricity Act, The area of supply of the Petitioner comprises Jabalpur, Rewa, Sagar and Shahdol Commissionary within the State of Madhya Pradesh ('MP'). 3. Madhya Pradesh Paschim Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Ltd., (hereinafter referred to as the 'Petitioner', MPPaKVVCL, 'the Company' or 'the Licensee' or West Discom ), is a Company incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956 and having its registered office at GPH, Polo Ground, Indore. The Petitioner is a deemed licensee under the Fifth Proviso to Section 14 of the Electricity Act, The area of supply of the Petitioner comprises Indore and Ujjain Commissionary within the State of Madhya Pradesh ('MP'). 4. Madhya Pradesh Madhya Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Ltd. (MPMKVVCL), (hereinafter referred to as the 'Petitioner', MPMKVVCL, 'the Company' or 'the Licensee' or Central Discom ), is a Company incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956 and having its registered office at Nishtha Parisar, Bijlee Nagar Colony, Govindpura, Bhopal. The Petitioner is a deemed licensee under the Fifth Proviso to Section 14 of the Electricity

3 Act, The area of supply of the Petitioner comprises Bhopal, Gwalior, Hoshangabad and Chambal Commissionary within the State of Madhya Pradesh ('MP'). 5. The Government of Madhya Pradesh ('GoMP' or 'State Government'), vide an Order No FRS dated 31st May, 2005, published in the gazette of Madhya Pradesh dated 31st May 2005, have restructured the functions and undertakings of Generation, Transmission, Distribution and Retail Supply of electricity earlier carried out by the Madhya Pradesh State Electricity Board ('MPSEB' or the 'Board') and transferred the same to five Companies to function independently. The five Companies are as under: - a) M.P. Power Generating Company Ltd., Jabalpur (MPPGCL) b) M.P. Power Transmission Company Ltd., Jabalpur (MPPTCL) c) M.P. Poorv Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Ltd., Jabalpur (MPPoKVVCL) d) M.P. Paschim Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Ltd., Indore (MPPaKVVCL) e) M.P.Madhya Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Ltd. Bhopal (MPMKVVCL) 6. With effect from 1st June 2005, the Operation and Management Agreement that existed between Madhya Pradesh State Electricity Board and the Five Companies came to end with the issue of the said Order dated The three Discoms viz. MPPoKVVCL, Jabalpur, MPPaKVVCL, Indore and MPMKVVCL, Bhopal started functioning independently as Distribution Licensees in their respective area of license and from the said date, they are no longer operating as an agent of or on behalf of the Board, subject to Cash Flow Mechanism (CFM) provided in the said Order. 7. On June 3, 2006 GoMP, in exercise of its powers under Section 23 (Sub-section (1), (2) and (3)) and Section 56 (Subsection (2)) of Madhya Pradesh Vidyut Sudhar Adhiniyam, 2000 read with Section 131 (Sub-sections (1), (2), (5), (6) and (7) of Electricity Act, 2003, effected the transfer of and vesting of the functions, properties, interests, rights and obligations of MPSEB relating to the Bulk Purchase and Bulk Supply of Electricity in the State Government and simultaneously re-transferred and re-vested the same to MP Power Trading Company Ltd. ('Tradeco' or 'MP Tradeco'). Since then, MP Tradeco is discharging the responsibilities of procurement of power in bulk and supplying to the three Electricity Distribution Companies (DISCOMs), including the Petitioner herein. The transfer was affected through "M.P. Electricity Reforms Transfer Scheme Rules 2006 (Transfer Scheme Rules) vide Notification No.3474 /FRS/17/XIII/2002 dtd 3rd June 2006 (Transfer Scheme Rules). 8. In accordance with GoMP decision, the name of MP Power Trading Company Ltd has been changed to MP Power Management Company Ltd. MPPMCL is the holding Company of the three electricity distribution companies (Discoms) of MP State, viz., M. P. Poorv Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Ltd., M. P. Paschim Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Ltd. and M. P. Madhya Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Ltd. The Petitioner has been vested with several of functions and powers that were earlier vested with the erstwhile Madhya Pradesh State Electricity Board. The Registrar of Companies MP has issued the Certificate of Incorporation Consequent upon Change of Name on GoMP has entrusted the MPPMCL with the responsibility inter alia of representing the Discoms before the Commission with regard to filing the tariff petition and facilitating all proceedings thereon. The Management and Corporate functions agreement signed by the MPPMCL with the three Discoms of MP also provide for the same. 10. MPPMCL has signed Management and Corporate Functions Agreement on 5th June 2012, with the three Discoms of the State, wherein it has been agreed that the Petitioner shall perform inter alia the following functions of common nature for the Discoms: In consultation with Discoms, undertake long-term/ medium-term/short-term planning and assessment of the power purchase requirements for the three Discoms and explore opportunities for power procurement as per the regulations of MPERC; Allocation of power among the Discoms from the forthcoming projects as per retail tariff order and as per the GoMP notification and further instructions in this regard; Economic, reliable and cost effective power procurement of Short-term, Medium-term and Long-term and sale of surplus power, if any, for the purpose of Banking / maximization of revenue; Exploring opportunities for procurement of power on long-term and medium-term basis, procure power and 3

4 finalizing Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs); The expenses of MPPMCL have been to be included as part of power purchase cost of the Discoms. 11. In the backdrop of the above facts and circumstances, the present application is being made by the MPPMCL along with the three Distribution Companies of MP State under Section 61 and Section 62 (1) (d) of the Electricity Act 2003 for determination of the tariff for distribution and Retail Supply Business for the period FY following the regulations laid down by the Hon ble Commission. 12. While filing the present ARR under the prevailing Regulation, MPPMCL along with the Discoms has endeavored to comply with the various legal and regulatory directions and stipulations applicable, including the directions given by the Hon'ble Commission in the Business Rules of the Commission, the Guidelines, previous ARR and Tariff Orders and the Madhya Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (Terms & Conditions for determination of Tariff) Regulation 2012 (hereinafter referred to as the Regulations ). 13. It is submitted that as soon as the retail tariff order becomes applicable, the voltage level and consumer categorywise cross subsidy surcharge, additional surcharge, wheeling charges and transmission charges in respect of open access customers should also be notified and made effective from the tariff application date. It is therefore, prayed to kindly issue the approach paper for determination of the voltage level and consumer categorywise cross subsidy surcharge, additional surcharge, wheeling charges and transmission charges also along with the retail tariff order for open access customers. 14. It is also submitted that the Petitioners have not separated the consumers, connected load, energy units sold and projected revenue in the Franchisee areas of Sagar, Ujjain and Gwalior from their sales and revenue model. The projections of these parameters have been done on the basis of most feasible growth rate out of Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the last 3,2,1 years and corresponding period growth up to September 2014 as the consumers in the franchisee area remain to be the consumers of the Distribution Licensee and not the Franchisee. The franchisee is only a collection agent working on behalf of the Distribution Licensee and recovers charges from consumers at the tariff determined by the Hon ble MPERC. The revenue realized by the Distribution Licensee is completely in accordance with the tariff determined by the Hon ble MPERC. It is pertinent to mention here that this methodology of considering the consumers of franchisee area as discoms consumer has a precedence in Case no. 63 of 2009 of Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission dated 7 th January This petition is filed on the basis of normative parameters as provided by Hon ble MPERC in Regulation No. 3296/MPERC/2012 dated i.e MPERC (Terms and Conditions for Determination of Tariff for Supply and Wheeling of Electricity and Methods and Principles for Fixation of Charges) Regulations The Regulation does not provide segregation of normative losses for the Distribution Licensees into voltage wise normative losses in respect of technical and commercial losses. Therefore, the Petitioners face difficulty in segregation of normative losses in voltage level wise technical and commercial losses. The Hon ble MPERC in the previous year s filing has referred to an Appellate Tribunal for Electricity (APTEL) judgment to determine the voltage level wise Cost of Supply in the state of MP. However, this judgment is to determine the voltage level wise cross subsidy surcharge and not consumer tariff. In the present petition, the Petitioners have proposed consumer category wise tariff on the basis of Average Cost of Supply, which is in line with the National Tariff Policy The Hon ble Commission is requested to determine the voltage level and consumer category wise cross subsidy surcharge on the basis of the available data with the Distribution Licensees in accordance with the methodology suggested by the APTEL and also approved by Hon ble Commission in its Retail Supply Tariff Order for FY Based on the information available, the Petitioners have made sincere efforts to comply with the Regulations of the Hon'ble Commission and discharge its obligations to the best of its ability and resources at its command. However, should any further information of material significance become available during the process of determination, the petitioner may be permitted to reserve the right to file such additional information and consequently amend/ revise the petition. 4

5 17. MPERC has approved the true- up orders for all the three discoms for the years FY , FY and FY ; true up order for MP Transco for FY and true-up order for MPGenco for FY These approved true up amounts have also been while filing the total ARR for FY The salient features of the ARR are as under:- S.No. ARR Items East Central West Total- State 1 Total ARR (excluding True Up) Rs Crores 8,054 8,993 10,081 27,128 2 Revenue at current tariffs Rs Crores 7,448 7,901 8,263 23,612 3 Gap (excluding true-up) Rs Crores 606 1,092 1,818 3,516 4 Average Cost of Supply (excluding true-up) Rs/kWh Impact of True-Up Amounts of Past Years a Impact of True Up for Discoms for FY Rs Crores b Impact of True Up for Discoms for FY Rs Crores c Impact of True Up for Discoms for FY Rs Crores d Impact of True up for MP Transco for FY Rs Crores e Impact of True Up for MPGenco for FY Rs Crores Total ARR (Including True Up) Rs Crores 9,130 9,630 10,098 28,858 6 Total Revenue Gap (including True-up) Rs Crores 1,682 1,729 1,835 5,246 7 Average Cost of Supply (including true-up) Rs/kWh However, despite the various measures taken to improve commercial and technical efficiencies, DISCOMs are unable to recover the costs incurred, which are compelling the DISCOMs to propose for an increase in the existing tariff. 20. The petitioners would like to reiterate their proposal to alter the mechanism for deriving Fuel Cost Adjustment (FCA) for recovery/adjustment of uncontrollable costs due to increase or decrease in the cost of fuel in case of coal, oil and gas based generating stations. The petitioners would like to resubmit that the existing mechanism to calculate FCA does not have any provision to recover the incremental power purchase. The petitioners also urge that the average power purchase cost should be in the formula instead of only variable costs, thus passing on the complete fixed costs on to the consumers as a legitimate cost. 21. Shri F.K. Meshram, Chief General Manager (Revenue Management) of MPPMCL; Shri P.K. Singh, Executive Director (Commercial) of MPPoKVVCL; Shri Kailash Shiva, Chief Engineer (Commercial) of MPPaKVVCL and Shri A.R. Verma, General Manager & Superintending Engineer (Commercial) of MPMKVVCL have been authorized to execute and file all the documents on behalf of the respective petitioners in this regard. Accordingly, the current filing is signed and verified by, and backed by the affidavit of respective authorized signatories. 5

6 PRAYER In view of the aforesaid facts and circumstances, the Applicant requests that the Hon'ble Commission may be pleased to: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) Take the accompanying ARR/Tariff petition of the above petitioners on record and treat it as complete; Consider and approve petitioner's ARR (including true-up amounts of all companies previous years) amounting to Rs. 9,130 Cr for East Discom, Rs. 10,098 Cr for West Discom and Rs. 9,630 Cr for Central Discom for the year FY ; Considering the aforesaid facts and circumstances the Hon ble Commission may be pleased to allow expenses of MPPMCL as stated to be allowed and include them as a part of power purchase cost of three Discoms, to meet the ends of justice; Consider and approve Petitioner s tariff proposal for FY to recover the costs for the ensuing year; Consider and determine the wheeling charges, voltage level and consumer category wise cross subsidy surcharge, additional surcharge and transmission charges for open access customers on the basis of ARR petition for FY and make applicable w.e.f the application date of the revised tariff; Condone any inadvertent omissions/ errors/ shortcomings and permit the petitioner to add/ change/ modify/ alter portion(s) of this filing and make further submissions as may be required at a later stage; and Pass such an order as the Hon'ble Commission deems fit and proper as per the facts and circumstances of the case. Date: - 02 nd February 2015 Shri F.K. Meshram, Chief General Manager (Revenue Management) MPPMCL, JABALPUR Shri P.K. Singh, Executive Director (Commercial) MP Poorv Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Co. Ltd., Jabalpur. Shri Kailash Shiva, Chief Engineer (Commercial) MP Paschim Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Co. Ltd., Indore. Shri A.R. Verma, GM & SE (Commercial) MP Madhya Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Co. Ltd., Bhopal. 6

7 Table of Contents 1. Estimation of sales Method adopted for Estimation of Sales Category-wise sales projection Energy Requirement at Discom Boundary and Ex-Bus Energy purchased Conversion of annual sales to monthly sales MPPTCL Losses Distribution Losses Assessment of Availability Details of Generation Capacities allocated to Discoms Details of Generation Capacities allocated to MPPMCL Existing and Capacity Addition till FY Overall availability Inter-State Transmission Losses Management of Surplus Energy MoD and BackDown Energy Balance Details of Costs for Stations allocated to MP Discoms RPO Cost Estimation of Other Power Purchase Costs O&M Expenses - Discoms Employee Costs Administrative & General Expenses Repair and Maintenance Expenses Gist of O&M Expenses Investment Plan Discoms Other Costs/ Income Discoms Depreciation Interest and Finance Charges Other Income Return on Equity Bad and Doubtful Debts Income/Expenses of MPPMCL Income Revenue from operations (including Revenue Subsidy) Expenses Annual Revenue Requirement 89 7

8 9.1. Annual Revenue Requirement of MPPMCL Annual Revenue Requirement of Discoms Terminal Benefits (Pension, Gratuity and Leave Encashment) Provision Power Purchase Cost Adjustment (PPCA) Tariff Proposal for FY Salient Features of the Tariff Proposal Voltage-Wise Cost of Supply Commission Directives Voltage-wise Losses Methodology Calculation Determination of Cross-Subsidy Surcharge Compliance on Tariff Order FY TARIFF SCHEDULES 127 8

9 List of tables Table 1: Sales for the MYT Period FY to FY Table 2: LV-1 Domestic Unit Projection Table 3: LV-2 Non-Domestic Unit Projection Table 4: LV-3.1 PWW Unit Projection Table 5: LV-3.2 Street Light Unit Projection Table 6: LV-4.1 Non-Seasonal Industrial Unit Projection Table 7: LV-4.2 Seasonal Industrial Unit Projection Table 8: HV-1 Railway Traction Projection Table 9: HV-2 Coal Mines Projection Table 10: HV-3 Industrial and Non-Industrial Projection Table 11: HV-4 Seasonal Projections Table 12: HV-5 Projections Table 13: HV-6 Bulk Residential user Projections Table 14: Month-Wise Sales Profiles of Discoms Table 15: MPPTCL Losses: Past Data from MP-SLDC Table 16: Loss level targets (%) for Discoms (as per MPERC regulations) Table 17: Monthly energy requirement at Sate Boundary (MU) for FY'15- FY Table 18 Ex-bus energy purchases to be done in FY Table 19: Stations with MP Share which are allocated to MP Discoms Table 20: Past and Projected ex-bus availability of Stations with MP Share which are allocated to MP Discoms (MU) Table 21: Stations allocated to MPPMCL Existing and Capacity Addition till FY Table 22: Stations allocated to MPPMCL Projected-Ex Bus Availability till FY 16 (MU) Table 23: Overall availability till FY 16 (MU) Table 24: Management of Surplus Energy with Discoms for FY'15 and FY' Table 25 Ex-bus availability after backdown (MU) Table 26: Ex-Bus Purchases by Discoms from Various Sources Table 27 Tariff orders of MPPMCL allocated stations Table 28: Fixed and Variable Costs of Discom Allocated Stations for FY Table 29: Fixed and Variable Costs of MPPMCL allocated stations Table 30 Total Fixed Costs and Variable Costs of Discom Allocated Stations Table 31 Total Fixed and Variable Costs of fixed and variable costs of MPPMCL allocated stations Table 32: RPO Obligation for FY Table 33: Inter-State Transmission Charges Table 34: Intra-state Costs excluding Terminal Benefits Table 35: Actual Cash Outflow towards Terminal Benefits for all State Power Sector Utilities Table 36: Total Intra-State Transmission Costs and Allocation to Discoms (Rs Cr) Table 37: MPPMCL Costs: Details and Discoms Allocation (Rs Cr) Table 38: Total Power Purchase Costs - FY'15 to FY' Table 39: Employee Cost Table 40: Administrative and General Expenses-As per Regulation (Rs. Cr.) Table 41: MPERC fees Table 42: Repair and Maintenance Expenses-As per Regulation (Rs. Cr.) Table 43: Gist of O&M expenses-as per Regulation (Rs. Crores) Table 44: Capital expenditure Plan (Rs. Crores) Table 45: Scheme Wise Capitalization (Rs. Crores) Table 46: CWIP (Rs. Cr.) Table 47: Fixed Assets Addition (Rs. Cr.) Table 48: Depreciation -> as per regulation (Rs. Cr.) Table 49: Interest on Project Loans (Rs. Cr.) Table 50: Interest on Working Capital (Rs. Cr.) Table 51: Interest on consumer security deposit as per regulation (Rs. Crores) Table 52: Other Income (Rs. Cr.)

10 Table 53: Return on equity as per regulation (Rs. Crores) It is submitted that the Commission as per its Tariff Regulations has allowed bad and doubtful debts to the extent of 1% of revenue from sale of power. However, the Commission may observe that the discoms have actually been writing off bad debts of amount more than the prescribed 1% of revenue. Considering the facts presented here, the Hon ble Commission is prayed to allow the complete 1% amount of revenue as bad debts as per the provisions of its Tariff Regulations.Table 54: Bad Debts - As per regulation (Rs. Crores) Table 55: Summary of ARR for MPPMCL (Rs. Cr.) Table 56: Summary of ARR of Discoms as per the Regulation (Rs. Crores) Table 57: Future Contribution rate of liability on account of Actuary Table 58: Calculation of Terminal Benefits Provisions (Rs. Crores) Table 59: Terminal Benefits Provisions Liability for Discoms (Rs. Cr.) Table 60: Terminal Benefits Provisions Liability for Discoms (Rs. Cr.) Table 61: Summary of proposed Tariff for FY Table 62: Category-wise proposed revenue for FY Table 63: Cost of Supply Calculation for East Discom for FY Table 64: Cost of Supply Calculation for Central Discom for FY Table 65: Cost of Supply Calculation for West Discom for FY Table 66: Cost of Supply Calculation for MP State for FY

11 1. Estimation of sales 1.1 Method adopted for Estimation of Sales For the purpose of projection of sales, the distribution licensees have category wise and slab wise actual data of the sale of electricity, number of consumers, connected / contracted load, etc. of the preceding four years i.e. FY , FY , FY , FY and available data of the FY i.e. up to the month of September The licensees, in the previous year s filing for FY , had projected the Sales based on the actual data of FY Since the actual data of FY is now available and it has been observed that the actual sales during FY have deviated significantly from the sales forecasted by the Licensee and those allowed by the Hon ble Commission during the previous filings and considering the increase in supply hours particularly in the rural areas during the current year, the licensees feel that it will be appropriate to revise the sales forecast for FY and thereafter project the sales for FY The sales for FY have been projected on the basis of the actual data of Number of Consumers, Connected Load and Consumption during the last 4 years and on the basis of revised estimate for FY The approach being followed is to analyze 3 year and 2 year Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGRs) and year on year growth rate of each category and its sub-categories in respect of urban & rural consumers separately. After analysis of the data, appropriate / reasonable growth rates have been assumed for future consumer forecasts from the past CAGRs of the Category/Sub-category by the three Discoms. The past CAGR on sales per consumer / sales per kw and connected load has been applied while forecasting the connected load and sales in each category/sub-category. The use of specific consumption i.e. consumption per consumer and / or consumption per unit load is the basic forecasting variable and is widely used in load and energy sales forecasting. The basic intent in using this model is that, the specific consumption per consumer and / or consumption per unit load captures the trends and variations in the usage of electricity over a growth cycle more precisely. This method has been recommended by the C.E.A. also. The forecast also considers the impact of schemes / plans of licensee such as the RGGVY (Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana), future Meterization Plan of urban domestic consumers and separation of feeders of Agricultural and other categories of consumers and increase in supply hours in rural areas. The projections for each tariff category and the relevant assumptions of the three Discoms have been discussed in the following sections. The overall sales forecast is as follows: 11

12 Table 1: Sales for the MYT Period FY to FY East Discom Central Discom West Discom MP State TC Category FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 LV 1 Domestic 2,901 3,338 4,234 2,683 3,457 4,318 3,149 3,520 3,966 8,734 10,315 12,518 LV 2 Non-Domestic , ,002 2,361 2,799 LV 3.1 Public Water Works , LV 3.2 Street Lights LV 4 LT Industrial ,092 1,179 LV 5.1 Agriculture Irrigation Pumps 2,770 4,502 5,483 4,407 5,305 6,727 5,418 6,820 7,981 12,596 16,627 20,192 LV 5.3 Agriculture related Use Total (LT) 7,534 9,621 11,814 8,235 10,090 12,613 10,112 12,018 13,769 25,881 31,729 38,196 HV 1 Railway Traction , ,777 1,980 2,193 HV 2 Coal Mines HV 3.1 Industrial 1,962 2,055 2,199 1,796 1,832 2,008 2,070 2,070 2,070 6,478 5,957 6,277 HV 3.2 Non-Industrial ,007 HV 3.3 Shopping Mall HV 3.4 Power Intensive industries HV 4 Seasonal HV 5.1 Public Water Works and Irrigation HV 5.2 Other Agricultural HV 6 Bulk Residential Users Total (HT) 3,552 3,790 4,083 3,322 3,614 3,922 3,866 3,951 4,035** 10,740 11,355 12,041** TOTAL LT+HT 11,086 13,411 15,897 11,557 13,704 16,535 13,978 15,969 17,805** 36,622 43,083 50,237** ** 8MUs for the purpose of Synchronization and Start-up power under category HV-7 has been for West Discom only. Hence, the difference in total. 12

13 1.2 Category-wise sales projection LV -1: Domestic Assumptions for Projecting Unmetered Domestic Sales In the tariff order for FY , Hon ble Commission has petitioner s proposal to revise the benchmark of billing to unmetered domestic connections in rural areas to 75 units per month per connection. The petitioners have the same for projecting consumption of unmetered domestic connections. The projections of consumption of un-metered domestic connections in this petition have been as NIL for urban areas (since all domestic consumers in urban areas have been metered) RGGVY In addition to the growth rate assumed for domestic category, the impact of implementation of RGGVY has also been taken into account for future consumer/load/consumption projections for Central Discom. The implementation roadmap of the RGGVY forms the basis of future projections by the Central Discom. While no consumers and consumption has been estimated for East and West Discoms separately for RGGVY. However, the same has not been projected separately, but has been included in the overall projection for Domestic category. For Central Discom 2 lakh consumers and corresponding sales of MUs for FY have been projected. After factoring the growth in consumers the following projections has been arrived at for LV-1 category. Table 2: LV-1 Domestic Unit Projection Area Sub Category East Discom Central Discom West Discom FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 Urban Metered 1,411 1,791 2,330 1,857 2,180 2,560 1,878 2,085 2,315 Urban Un-metered Urban Temporary Urban Total 1,427 1,808 2,347 1,870 2,195 2,575 1,895 2,105 2,335 Rural Metered 891 1,186 1, ,070 1,647 1,105 1,291 1,568 Rural Un-metered Rural Temporary Rural Total 1,474 1,530 1, ,262 1,744 1,254 1,415 1,631 Total Metered 2,302 2,977 4,044 2,468 3,250 4,207 2,983 3,376 3,883 Total Un-metered Total Temporary Total Total 2,901 3,338 4,234 2,683 3,457 4,318 3,149 3,520 3, East Discom The growth percentages assumed for the category for FY are as shown below: Area Category Urban Rural FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) Consumer Current year growth Current year growth 5.99% rate has been 6.60% rate has been Metered Average Load (kw) No growth rate has No growth rate has per Consumer been been Average consumption 2 year CAGR has Nominal growth rate per consumer per 8.40% 1 been has been month Un-metered Consumer All unmetered All unmetered Average Load per consumers are consumers are 13

14 Temporary Consumer (in kw) Average consumption expected to be metered by the FY16 per consumer per month Consumer Average Load per Consumer (in kw) No growth rate has Average consumption been per consumer per month expected to be metered by the FY16 No growth rate has been Central Discom The growth percentages assumed for the category are as shown below Area Category Urban Rural FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) Metered Consumer Current year growth YoY growth rate and rate and growth rate growth rate due to 7.23% due to meterization 15.09% meterization of of unmetered unmetered consumers consumers Average Load (kw) No growth rate has No growth rate has 0% 0% per Consumer been been Average consumption per 9.48% consumer per month Un-metered Consumer Average Load per Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month Temporary Consumer 10.94% Average Load per Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month Current year growth rate has been 26.67% All unmetered consumers are expected to be metered by the FY16 Current year growth rate has been 11.63% No growth rate has been Current year growth rate has been All unmetered consumers are expected to be metered by the FY16 3 year CAGR is No growth rate has been West Discom The growth percentages assumed for the category are as shown below: Area Category Urban Rural FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) Consumer YoY growth rate has 3 year CAGR is 4.38% 9.37% been Average Load (kw) No growth rate has No growth rate has Metered per Consumer been been Average Current year growth 2 year CAGR is consumption per 7.03% rate has been 6.88% consumer per month Consumer Un-metered Temporary Average Load per Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer No growth rate has been 0.93% 2 year CAGR has been No growth rate has been No growth rate has been 14

15 Area Category Urban Rural FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) Average Load per Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month No growth rate has been No growth rate has been 15

16 LV -2: Non-Domestic The future projections are as below Table 3: LV-2 Non-Domestic Unit Projection Sub Category East Discom Central Discom West Discom FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 Metered Temporary Total , East Discom The growth percentages assumed for the category are as shown below: Area Metered Temporary Consumer Category Average Load (kw) per Consumer Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer Average Load per Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month Urban Rural FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) 4.49% Current year growth YoY growth rate has rate has been 9.38% been 9.39% 3 year CAGR is YoY growth rate has 0.97% been 15.00% Nominal growth rate has been No growth rate has been 5.00% Nominal growth rate has been No growth rate has been Central Discom The growth percentages assumed for the category are as shown below: Area Metered Temporary Consumer Category FY 16 (Projection) 4.42% Average Load (kw) per Consumer 11.08% Average consumption per consumer per month 5.00% Consumer Average Load (kw) per Consumer Average consumption per consumer per month Urban Description (FY 16) Current year growth rate has been Current year growth rate has been Nominal growth rate of 5% has been FY 16 (Projection) 5.81% 7.67% 4.33% 5.00% No growth rate has been Rural Description (FY 16) YoY growth rate has been Current year growth rate has been Current year growth rate has been Nominal growth rate has been No growth rate has been 16

17 West Discom The growth percentages assumed for the category are as shown below: Area Category Urban Rural FY 16 FY 16 Description (FY Description (FY 16) (Projection) (Projection) 16) Metered Consumer 2.28% YoY growth rate has been 3.32% 2 year CAGR has been Average Load (kw) per Consumer 7.80% 2 year CAGR has been No growth rate has been Average consumption per consumer per month No growth rate has been 3.13% YoY growth rate has been Temporary Consumer Average Load per No growth rate has No growth rate has Consumer (in kw) been been Average consumption per consumer per month 17

18 LV -3.1: Public Water Works Considering the anticipated increase in supply hours, the future projections are as follows: Table 4: LV-3.1 PWW Unit Projection Sub Category East Discom Central Discom West Discom FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 Municipal Corp Nagar Panchayat Gram Panchayat Temporary Total East Discom The growth percentages assumed for the category are as shown below: Area Municipal Corporation Nagar Panchayat Gram Panchayat Temporary Consumer Category Average Load (kw) per Consumer Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer Average Load per Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer Average Load per Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer Average Load (kw) per Consumer Average consumption per consumer per month FY 16 (Projection) 0.87% Urban Description (FY 16) 2 year CAGR has been FY 16 (Projection) No growth rate has been 3.02% 1.95% 8.24% 0.61% 2 year CAGR has been YoY growth rate has been No growth rate has been 2 year CAGR has been 3 year CAGR has been No growth rate has been No growth rate has been 14.71% 16.27% Rural Description (FY 16) No growth rate has been Current year growth rate has been No growth rate has been Current year growth rate has been No growth rate has been No growth rate has been Central Discom The growth percentages assumed for the category are as shown below: Area Municipal Corporation Category FY 16 (Projection) Urban Description (FY 16) FY 16 (Projection) Rural Description (FY 16) Consumer No growth rate has No growth rate has been been Average Load (kw) per Consumer 1.11% Current year growth rate has been 2.24% Current year growth rate has been Average consumption 5.99% Current year growth 13.26% Current year growth 18

19 Area Nagar Panchayat Gram Panchayat Temporary Category per consumer per month Consumer FY 16 (Projection) 3.53% Average Load per Consumer (in kw) 0.85% Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer Average Load per Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer 10.98% 12.95% 11.32% Average Load (kw) per Consumer 5.45% Average consumption per consumer per month 3.56% Urban Description (FY 16) rate has been 2 year CAGR has been 3 year CAGR has been YoY growth rate has been 3 year CAGR has been No growth rate has been YoY growth rate has been No growth rate has been Current year growth rate has been 3 year CAGR has been FY 16 (Projection) 7.96% 11.75% 12.92% 25.46% 3.03% 6.21% Rural Description (FY 16) rate has been No growth rate has been Current year growth rate has been 3 year CAGR has been 3 year CAGR has been No growth rate has been YoY growth rate has been Current year growth rate has been Current year growth rate has been No growth rate has been West Discom The growth percentages assumed for the category are as shown below: Area Category FY 16 (Projection) Urban Description (FY 16) FY 16 (Projection) Consumer 2 year CAGR has 2.46% been Average Load (kw) per Current year growth Municipal Consumer 1.08% rate has been Corporation 2.35% Average consumption No growth has been per consumer per month 1.64% Consumer 2 year CAGR has 6.28% been Average Load per Current year growth Nagar Consumer (in kw) 4.50% rate has been Panchayat Average consumption No growth rate has per consumer per month been Consumer 5.44% 21.60% Current year growth Gram Average Load per rate has been Panchayat 3.68% 1.68% Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month 5.78% Temporary Consumer Average Load (kw) per No growth rate has Consumer been Average consumption per consumer per month Rural Description (FY 16) No growth has been 3 year CAGR has been YoY growth rate has been No growth has been No growth rate has been No growth rate has been Current year growth rate has been YoY growth rate has been No growth rate has been No growth rate has been 19

20 V -3.2: Street Light Considering the anticipated increase in supply hours, the future projections are as below: Table 5: LV-3.2 Street Light Unit Projection Sub Category East Discom Central Discom West Discom FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 Municipal Corp Nagar Panchayat Gram Panchayat Total East Discom The growth percentages assumed for the category are as shown below. Municipal Corporation Area Category Urban Rural Nagar Panchayat Gram Panchayat Consumer Average Load (kw) per Consumer Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer Average Load per Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer Average Load per Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month FY 16 (Projection) 5.24% Description (FY 16) Current year growth rate has been FY 16 (Projection) No growth rate has been 5.98% Current year growth rate has been No growth rate has been 6.47% Current year growth rate has been No growth rate has been Description (FY 16) No growth rate has been Central Discom The growth percentages assumed for the category are as shown below: Area Municipal Corporation Nagar Panchayat Gram Panchayat Urban Category FY 16 FY 16 Description (FY 16) (Projection) (Projection) Consumer 5.88% Current year has been Average Load (kw) per 5.05% Consumer Average consumption 2 year CAGR has been 1.76% per consumer per month Consumer Current year growth rate 5.97% has been Average Load per YoY growth rate has been 3.56% Consumer (in kw) 12.46% Average consumption 13.94% per consumer per month Current year growth rate 34.96% Consumer 78.95% has been Rural Description (FY 16) No growth has been No growth has been 3 year CAGR has been No growth rate has been Average Load per 9.53% YoY growth rate has been 10.55% Current year growth 20

21 Consumer (in kw) rate has been Average consumption No growth rate has been Nominal growth rate 1 per consumer per month has been West Discom The growth percentages assumed for the category are as shown below: Area Municipal Corporation Nagar Panchayat Gram Panchayat Consumer Category Average Load (kw) per Consumer Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer FY 16 (Projection) 17.85% Urban Description (FY 16) Current year growth rate has been FY 16 (Projection) No growth rate has been 7.93% Average Load per Consumer (in kw) 7.09% 3 year CAGR has been YoY growth rate has been 17.35% Average consumption No growth rate has been per consumer per month Consumer Current year growth rate 3.83% has been Average Load per Consumer (in kw) No growth rate has been Average consumption per consumer per month 1 Rural Description (FY 16) No growth rate has been No growth rate has been Current year growth rate has been No growth rate has been No growth rate has been Nominal growth rate of 10% has been 21

22 LV -4.1: Non- Seasonal Industrial The future projections are as below: Table 6: LV-4.1 Non-Seasonal Industrial Unit Projection Sub Category East Discom Central Discom West Discom FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 Upto 25HP Above 25HP to 100HP Above 100HP Temporary LT Ind Total East Discom The assumptions for sales forecast for the category are given below: Area Upto 25HP Above 25HP to 100HP Above 100HP Temporary Category FY 16 (Projection) Urban Description (FY 16) FY 16 (Projection) Consumer 3 year CAGR has been 2.22% 4.64% Average Load (kw) per 3 year CAGR has been 0.54% Consumer 1.09% Average consumption per 2 year CAGR has been 1.29% consumer per month 5.31% Consumer 3 year CAGR has been 10.61% 9.15% Average Load per Current year growth Consumer (in kw) 6.74% rate has been 3.35% Average consumption per No growth rate has consumer per month been 1 Consumer 25.03% 3 year CAGR has been 21.64% Average Load per 0.47% Consumer (in kw) 2.04% Average consumption per No growth rate has consumer per month been Consumer Average Load (kw) per No growth rate has Consumer been Average consumption per consumer per month Rural Description (FY 16) 3 year CAGR has been Current year growth rate has been 3 year CAGR has been 2 year CAGR has been Nominal growth rate has been 3 year CAGR has been 2 year CAGR has been No growth rate has been No growth rate has been Central Discom The growth percentages assumed are as follows Area Upto 25HP Consumer Category Average Load (kw) per Consumer Average consumption per consumer per month FY 16 (Projection) 5.19% 1.52% 1.64% Urban Description (FY 16) Current year growth rate has been 3 year CAGR has been Current year growth rate has been FY 16 (Projection) 4.28% Rural Description (FY 16) 3 year CAGR has been 0.53% YoY growth has been 9.73% 22

23 Area Above 25HP to 100 HP Above 100HP Temporary Consumer Category Average Load per Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer FY 16 (Projection) 9.45% 0.29% 2.17% 13.19% Average Load per 2.09% Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer Average Load (kw) per Consumer Average consumption per consumer per month 11.11% Urban Description (FY 16) Current year growth rate has been 3 year CAGR has been YoY growth rate has been 3 year CAGR has been 2 year CAGR has been No growth rate has been FY 16 (Projection) 4.48% 2.38% 3.86% 1 No growth has been 1.63% 1.49% 3 year CAGR has been 1 Rural Description (FY 16) 3 year CAGR has been YoY growth rate has been 2 year CAGR has been No growth has been Nominal growth rate of 10% has been 2 year CAGR has been 3 year CAGR has been Nominal growth rate of 10% has been West Discom The growth percentages assumed are as follows: Area Up to 25HP Above 25HP to 100 HP Above 100HP Temporary Consumer Category FY 16 (Projection) 1.43% Average Load (kw) per Consumer 2.74% Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer Average Load per Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer 0.28% Urban Description (FY 16) YoY growth rate has been Current year growth rate has been No growth rate has been Current year growth rate has been FY 16 (Projection) 5.61% 0.25% 2.43% 5.83% No growth has been 2.31% 1 Average Load per Consumer (in kw) 3.17% Nominal growth rate of 10% has been Current year growth rate has been No growth rate has been 1.00% Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer Average Load (kw) per No growth rate has Consumer been Average consumption per consumer per month Rural Description (FY 16) 2 year CAGR has been YoY growth rate has been 3 year CAGR has been YoY growth rate has been No growth has been Nominal growth rate of 1% has been No growth rate has been No growth rate has been 23

24 LV -4.2: Seasonal Industrial The future projections are as follows: Table 7: LV-4.2 Seasonal Industrial Unit Projection Sub Category East Discom Central Discom West Discom FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 Upto 25HP Above 25HP to 100HP Above 100HP Total East Discom The growth percentages assumed are as follows: Area Upto 25HP Above 25HP to 100HP Above 100HP Consumer Category Urban Rural FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) Average Load (kw) per Consumer Average consumption per consumer per month 7.77% Consumer Average Load per Consumer (in kw) 1.91% 3 year CAGR has been No growth rate has been 0.16% Current year growth rate has been 3 year CAGR has been Current year growth rate has been 8.85% 1.99% Average consumption per consumer per month 0.07% 1 Consumer Average Load per Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month 3 year CAGR has been No growth rate has been 3 year CAGR has been Current year growth rate has been 3 year CAGR has been 3 year CAGR has been 2 year CAGR has been Nominal growth rate has been 3 year CAGR has been No growth rate has been Central Discom The growth percentages assumed are as follows Area Upto 25HP Above 25HP to 100 HP Consumer Category Average Load (kw) per Consumer Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer Average Load per Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per Urban Rural FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) No growth rate No growth rate 2.51% Current year growth YoY growth rate 1.01% rate has been has been 11.93% 2 year CAGR has 9.54% been 0.59% 1 No growth rate has been 2 year CAGR has been Nominal growth rate of 10% has been 3.97% No growth rate has been YoY growth rate has been 24

25 Area Above 100HP Category consumer per month Consumer Average Load per Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month Urban FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) FY 16 (Projection) 0.13% No growth rate has been 2 year CAGR has been No growth rate has been Rural Description (FY 16) No growth rate has been West Discom The growth percentages are assumed as follows: Area Category Urban Rural Description (FY FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) FY 16 (Projection) 16) Consumer 5.00% Nominal growth Upto 25HP rate of 5% has been Average Load (kw) per Consumer No growth rate has been Above 25HP to 100 HP Above 100HP Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer Average Load per Consumer (in kw) No growth has been Average consumption per consumer per month Consumer Average Load per Consumer (in kw) Average consumption per consumer per month No growth rate has been 25

26 LV -5.1: Agricultural The projections for LV 5.1 Agricultural category are as follows Area Sub Category East Discom Central Discom West Discom FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 Urban Metered General Urban Metered Temporary Urban Unmetered General Urban Unmetered Temporary Urban Total Rural Metered General Rural Metered Temporary Rural Unmetered General 1,896 3,518 4,433 3,488 4,495 5,852 4,340 5,587 6,676 Rural Unmetered Temporary Rural Total 2,528 4,131 5,044 4,149 5,050 6,416 5,177 6,499 7,590 Total Metered General Total Metered Temporary Total Unmetered General 2,108 3,857 4,839 3,719 4,725 6,140 4,542 5,862 7,021 Total Unmetered Temporary Total Total 2,770 4,502 5,483 4,407 5,305 6,727 5,418 6,820 7,981 For unmetered temporary agriculture consumers under this category, the assessed consumption is as per the norms stipulated by Hon ble Commission in the tariff order for FY The same is shown as below: Urban Urban Rural Rural Three Phase Single Phase East Discom The growth rates assumed for future projections and revised estimates for this category by east discom are as follows: Area Metered General Consumer Load Category Urban Rural FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) FY 16 (Projection) Description (FY 16) 2 No growth rate has been Nominal growth rate of 20% has been 5.00% 2 Nominal growth rate has been Consumption per HP No growth rate has been No growth rate has been Unmetered Permanent Consumer Load 6.00% 1 Nominal growth rate of 6% has been Nominal growth rate of 10% has been 6.00% 1 Nominal growth rate of 6% has been Nominal growth rate of 10% has been 26