What We Have Learned the Last 50 Years And Aren t Using. Presented by: Chris Stehno November 16, 2006
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1 What We Have Learned the Last 50 Years And Aren t Using Presented by: Chris Stehno November 16, 2006
2 The US Surgeon General 70% of the diseases and subsequent deaths in the U.S. are lifestyle-based 2
3 The CDC Lifestyle-based chronic diseases account for 75% of the nation s $1.4 trillion medical care costs 3
4 American Cancer Society Correlation between Lifestyle and Cancer Diet 35% Smoking 30% Sexual Behavior 7% Occupation 4% Alcohol 3% Sun Radiation 3% Other 18% 4
5 2004 INTERHEART Study Over 90% of the risk of a heart attack (myocardial infraction) is attributed to lifestyle factors Factors include: abnormal lipids, smoking, hypertension, abdominal obesity, consumption of fruits and vegetables, alcohol and regular physical activity Family history: thought by many to be the major risk, only accounts for 1% of the population attributable risk 5
6 Growth in Lifestyle-Based Diseases 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% 13.00% 8.30% 3.00% Lifestyle-Based Diseases Non-Lifestyle Diseases Health Insurance Premiums Kaiser Foundation / MedAlytics 6
7 Little Change in 50 Years The way we measure or assess health risks has not changed much in 50 years Even though most lifestyle-based diseases today are poorly correlated to individual and/or family medical histories, we still use medical history as our number one risk assessment tool In a typical medical predictive modeling setting we are only evaluating about 30% of the population 7
8 Definition of Lifestyle Diseases Lifestyle diseases (also called diseases of civilization) are diseases that appear to increase in frequency as countries become more industrialized and people live longer. (WHO) Lifestyle disease is a disease associated with the way a person or group of people lives. Lifestyle diseases include atherosclerosis, heart disease, and stroke; obesity and type 2 diabetes; diseases associated with smoking, alcohol, and drug abuse. Regular physical activity helps prevent obesity, heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, colon cancer, and premature mortality. (Stedman s Medical Dictionary) 8
9 Lifestyle-Based Diseases Lifestyle-Based Diseases/Conditions Diabetes Hypertension Cardiovascular Stroke COPD Maternity Most cancers Back pain Some mental health: Depression, Alzheimer s, etc. Others: Osteoporosis, Arthritis, etc. 9
10 Lifestyle-Based Analytics Lifestyle-Based Analytics (LBA) switches the method of detection focus from poorly correlated medical events to highly correlated lifestyle behaviors Similar predictive modeling techniques to traditional medical modeling 10
11 LBA Example Diabetes Profiling Example Diabetes Ratio Data Element Employee A Employee B A to B Age to 1 Vehicle Type MiniVan MiniVan 1 to 1 # of Children to 10 Outdoor Rec 4 plus No 1 to 25 Fast Food Rarely Frequent 1 to 40 Lifestyle Ind MI7 RE3 1 to 60 Hobbies Active Outdoor Reading 1 to Online Purchasing Sporting Goods Clothes 1 to
12 Maternity Example Traditional maternity factors are based on age/sex/geographic/family enrollment A simple Empirical model using number and ages of children can increase accuracy by over two-fold Additional lifestyle elements can dramatically improve accuracy by including financial indicators, household living parameters, square footage of house, number of bedrooms, type and size of vehicle, etc. 12
13 Maternity Model Sample Birth Rates 35 yr female 6.9% With 0 Children 6.0% With 1 Child 9.1% With a newborn 4.3% With a 2 yr old 15.4% With 2 Children 6.5% Ages 10 & 8 2.8% Ages 4 & 2 9.1% Boy & girl 5.8% Two girls 12.5% Range considering age & sex of children and spouse is from 1% to 29% 13
14 Lifestyle Data Sources 14
15 Currently in Place Applications and enrollment forms Individuals and groups Family information Age, sex and age differences in family members Employment Job description Height / weight Commute time Geography 15
16 HRA s and Other Surveys Excellent source for lifestyle-based data Several key problems Expensive to administer (>$10/ member) Additional cost tied to participation incentives Poor participation rates Questionable results on the unhealthiest population Timing issues for new business/members 16
17 Consumer Data The plethora of consumer data has dramatically changed our way of interacting with consumers Consumer data measured in Disk Storage per Person (DSPS) Mbytes/yr Mbytes/yr ,500 Mbytes/yr 17
18 Consumer Data Why? Primarily used for marketing, customer service and fraud purposes Graham-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 Requires opt-out Permitted by law Joint marketing agreements 18
19 Consumer Data Where? Government Public Records Census Financial Services Surveys Warranties Loyalty Programs Internet Purchases Subscriptions 19
20 Consumer Data Who? 95% of U.S. Households Historically: household-based Newest trend: individual-based Observed Implied 20
21 Consumer Data What? Traditional Demographics Age, sex, race, etc. Financial Homeowner, credit score, mortgage/auto/credit card balances, etc. Household Marriage status, number and ages of children, etc. 21
22 Consumer Data What? Lifestyle-Based Elements Physical activeness Running, walking, cycling, aerobics, golf, tennis, etc. Physical inactiveness Television time, computer time, board games, stamp and coin collecting, etc. Food purchases Fast food, diet food, gourmet, vegetarian, etc. Wine and other alcohol Self improvement Health/fitness, dieting/weight loss, etc. Mental wellness, personal improvement, etc. 22
23 Consumer Data What? Lifestyle-Based Elements Tobacco Occupation Travel Motor vehicle type Recreational vehicles Other 23
24 Data Regulations Data is not covered under HIPAA The data we use does not contain medical information Future possibilities for self-report medical data will need to be evaluated Fair Credit Reporting Act Applies to individuals Alternative FCRA approved data sets 24
25 Applications of LBA within Insurance 25
26 Marketing Consumer data evolution Most likely to purchase Market to individuals with the high propensity to purchase your product Most likely to retain Market to those most likely to buy and keep your product Most likely to remain healthy Market to the healthiest individuals who are most likely to buy and keep your product 26
27 Disease Management/Wellness An augment to traditional medical risk assessment Speed up the prediction A determiner of the next event Pre-diabetes Hypertension Measurement of obesity Day one assessment of new populations New plans New members 27
28 Underwriting Individual & Small Group Health Underwriting Augment current techniques Medium Group Health Underwriting Absence of medical data Preferred Underwriting Predictor of the healthy (preferred) Tele-Underwriting Criteria for identification Fraud Detection 28
29 Conclusion The real value of consumer data in the healthcare industry lies in its ability to predict lifestyle-based diseases Whether used as a HIPAA compliant identifier for health risks or as an early predictor of a disease state, we see the use of Lifestyle-Based Analytics accelerating rapidly within the healthcare arena as earlier adopters see significant competitive advantages 29
30 About Deloitte Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, a Swiss Verein, its member firms and their respective subsidiaries and affiliates. As a Swiss Verein (association), neither Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu nor any of its member firms has any liability for each other s acts or omissions. Each of the member firms is a separate and independent legal entity operating under the names Deloitte, Deloitte & Touche, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, or other related names. Services are provided by the member firms or their subsidiaries or affiliates and not by the Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Verein. Deloitte & Touche USA LLP is the U.S. member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu. In the U.S., services are provided by the subsidiaries of Deloitte & Touche USA LLP (Deloitte & Touche LLP, Deloitte Consulting LLP, Deloitte Financial Advisory Services LLP, Deloitte Tax LLP and their subsidiaries), and not Copyright by Deloitte 2006 & Touche Deloitte Development USA LLP. LLC. All rights reserved. 30
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This is an ERISA plan, and you have certain rights under this plan. Please contact your Employer for additional information.
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