Development of Shale Oil and Gas
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1 SHale gas Exploration and Exploitation induced Risks Risk Management in the Development of Shale Oil and Gas Prof Ruth Allen - Director RSKW Second Annual Meeting Blackpool - June 5-7, 2017 This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No
2 Risk Management Shale Oil and Gas 1 What is risk? Talk Content 2 Examples of perceived and non-perceived risk 3 Risks in shale oil and gas exploration 4 Risk quantification 5 So what? - Risk management thoughts 2
3 What is risk? 3
4 What is Risk? ISO 31000:2009 effect of uncertainty of objectives (deviation from the expected financial, environmental, social, health and safety etc. goals) coordinated activities to direct and control an organisation with regard to risk a situation involving exposure to danger 4
5 Perceived Risks Queen Victoria s Train Journey.it goes so fast you won t be able to breathe. Great Western Railway (I.K. Brunel) linked Bristol with London Paddington in June of Bypassed Windsor - noise and smoke Headmaster at Eton - "must be to the greatest degree injurious" to both health and discipline at the school. The Queen wrote.. "In half-an-hour, free from dust and crowd and heat, and I am qute quite charmed with it." 5
6 Unknown Risks Things not thought risky that were Clunk-Click seat belt campaign 1971 Drink-Drive Drive Campaign
7 Unmanaged Risk? 7
8 Real or Perceived Risks? FACTS AND INFORMATION 8
9 Risks or Myths and Legends? 9
10 Risk Management in Shale Oil and Gas The SHEER project analyses best practices for assessing and mitigating the environmental risks related to the exploration and exploitation ti of shale gas. This includes development of a probabilistic procedure for assessing short and long-term risks associated with groundwater contamination, air pollution and induced seismicity. 10
11 New Processes. New Risks 11
12 Risk management process The ISO 31000:2009 Risk management process (ISO, 2009) 12
13 Risk Management in Shale Oil and Gas - Water 13
14 Risk Management in Shale Oil and Gas - Water Factual Review History of development, licensing Resources and Reserves Role of innovation and technology Water management infrastructure Supply and demand in last 5 years Overview of regulatory framework General Analytical Approach Pestle Analysis Political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental SWOT Assessment Internal and external Scenario Development High, medium, low 14
15 Risk Impact/Probability Chart High Low High High High Impa act Low Low High Low Low 0% Probability 100% 15
16 Risk Management in Shale Oil and Gas High importance - very unlikely to happen. Do what you can to reduce the impact if they do occur. Have contingency plans in place in case they do. High Low High High High Critical importance. These are your top priorities, and risks that you must pay close attention to. Impa act Low Low High Low Low 0% Low level importance Probability Risks that you can often ignore. 100% Moderate importance if these things happen, you can cope with them and move on. Try to reduce the likelihood that they'll occur. 16
17 Risk Management in Shale Oil and Gas High importance - very unlikely to happen. Do what you can to reduce the impact if they do occur. Have contingency plans in place in case they do. High Low High High High Critical importance. These are your top priorities, and risks that you must pay close attention to. Impa act Low Low High Low Low 0% Low level importance Probability Risks that you can often ignore. 100% Moderate importance if these things happen, you can cope with them and move on. Try to reduce the likelihood that they'll occur. 17
18 Risk Management in Shale Oil and Gas High importance - very unlikely to happen. Do what you can to reduce the impact if they do occur. Have contingency plans in place in case they do. High Low High High High Critical importance. These are your top priorities, and risks that you must pay close attention to. Impa act Low Low High Low Low 0% Low level importance Probability Risks that you can often ignore. 100% Moderate importance if these things happen, you can cope with them and move on. Try to reduce the likelihood that they'll occur. 18
19 Risk Management in Shale Oil and Gas High importance - very unlikely to happen. Do what you can to reduce the impact if they do occur. Have contingency plans in place in case they do. High Low High High High Critical importance. These are your top priorities, and risks that you must pay close attention to. Impa act Low Low High Low Low 0% Low level importance Probability Risks that you can often ignore. 100% Moderate importance if these things happen, you can cope with them and move on. Try to reduce the likelihood that they'll occur. 19
20 Risk Management in Shale Oil and Gas 20
21 Risk Management in Other Sectors Water Meter replacement programme High proportion of reactive spend Managing asset failure: Reactive Proactive asset type Predictive asset criticality, target assets highest likelihood of failing first Asset cohort groups Criticality model operational, financial, reputational Reduced reactive cost, mitigated Four Box impact of customer/operational/ reputational issues. Model Saving 21
22 Risk Management in Other Sectors Station Asset Management Optimised investment and customer feedback scores ( saving) Risk scoring based on such factors as: Safety Environmental Operation Cost of Repair Replacement Value Probability of Failure Criticality Range of actions: Run to fail to Immediate action Four Box Model Reduced reactive cost, mitigated impact of customer/operational/ reputational issues, optimal investment timing 22
23 Assess all inter-related risks (Roux & Seaton, 2013) 23
24 So What? SHEER research programme Consider perceived and real risks Myth and legend facts and information - validated d Address the REAL issues Messages need to be simple, reinforceable and validated by data There is not a one size fits all communication Be thorough this is serious Lot of world class experts here today Use them Ask questions and share information Enjoy it!.and finally. 24
25 Risk and Forecasting Keep it Simple 25
26 References Considine, T., Watson, R., Considine, N., Martin, J., Environmental Impacts during Marcellus shale gas drilling: causes, impacts and remedies. Shale Resources and Society Institute Environment Agency, Regulating for people, the environment and growth (accessed May 2017) ISO, ISO 31000:2009, Risk management Principles and guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva, Switzerland Roux, L. and Seaton, J., Strategic Risks associated with developing a European Shale Gas Industry. Executive summary strategic risk shale gas Europe. Research Centre for Energy Management (RCEM) (accessed December 2016) US EPA, Hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas: impacts from the hydraulic fracturing water cycle on drinking water resources in the United States. United States Environmental Protection Agency Report EPA/600/R F; (accessed February 2017). US CSB, Drilling Rig Explosion and Fire at the Macondo Well. United States Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board, Report No I-OS (April, 2016). 26 R. Allen, RSKW - Blackpool ## th June
27 Risk in the shale oil & gas development cycle E.g. Groundwater risks arise in every part of the oil and gas cycle : initial abstraction for use downhole disposal long-term protection of an aquifer from degradation in well integrity over time. (US EPA 2016) 27
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