A Simulation based Decision Model for Designing Contract Period in Energy Performance Contracting

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1 A Simulation based Decision Model for Designing Contract Period in Energy Performance Contracting Presenter: Qianli Deng (Shally) Ph.D Candidate, University of Maryland, College Park Co author: Dr. Qingbin Cui Associate Professor, University of Maryland, College Park Dr. Xianglin Jiang Associate Professor, Fudan University, China 11/06/2014

2 Overview I. Problem Statement II. Factors affecting contracting period decision III. Models for simulation IV. Case Study of the University of Maryland Campus V. Conclusions and future research 11/6/2014 2

3 I. Problem Statement 11/6/2014 3

4 I. Problem Statement 40% 11/6/2014 4

5 I. Problem Statement 40% 40% 11/6/2014 5

6 I. Problem Statement Definition An EPC is a partnership between an Owner and an Energy Service Company (ESCO). EPC utilizes the future energy savings revenues to repay the initial energy efficiency investment. 11/6/2014 6

7 I. Problem Statement Definition An EPC is a partnership between an Owner and an Energy Service Company (ESCO). EPC utilizes the future energy savings revenues to repay the initial energy efficiency investment. Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) 11/6/2014 7

8 I. Problem Statement Definition An EPC is a partnership between an Owner and an Energy Service Company (ESCO). EPC utilizes the future energy savings revenues to repay the initial energy efficiency investment. Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) Energy Management Contracting (EMC) 11/6/2014 8

9 I. Problem Statement Definition An EPC is a partnership between an Owner and an Energy Service Company (ESCO). EPC utilizes the future energy savings revenues to repay the initial energy efficiency investment. Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) Energy Management Contracting (EMC) Energy Savings Performance Contracting (ESPC) 11/6/2014 9

10 I. Problem Statement Energy Service Company (ESCO/ESCo) 11/6/

11 I. Problem Statement Energy Service Company (ESCO/ESCo) 11/6/

12 I. Problem Statement Energy Service Company (ESCO/ESCo) Energy Conservation Measures (ECMs) Lighting Upgrades, Water Conservation, HVAC, Building Envelop, Windows Upgrades, Insulation, Mechanical Improvement, etc. 11/6/

13 I. Problem Statement Energy Performance Contracting (Siemens Building Technologies, 2010) 11/6/

14 I. Problem Statement Energy Performance Contracting (Siemens Building Technologies, 2010) 11/6/

15 I. Problem Statement How long the contracting period should be? Energy Performance Contracting (Siemens Building Technologies, 2010) 11/6/

16 I. Problem Statement Trade off in contracting period design exists 11/6/

17 I. Problem Statement Trade off in contracting period design exists Theoretically 1) Owners expect short contracting period 2) ESCOs expect long contracting period 11/6/

18 I. Problem Statement Trade off in contracting period design exists Theoretically 1) Owners expect short contracting period 2) ESCOs expect long contracting period Practically 3) Uncertainties of energy price, energy conservation measures performances, operation and maintenance activities, measurement and verification practices 11/6/

19 I. Problem Statement Energy Policy Act (2005) The whole contracting period of EPC shall not exceed 20 years to allow longer payback periods for retrofits. 11/6/

20 I. Problem Statement Energy Policy Act (2005) The whole contracting period of EPC shall not exceed 20 years to allow longer payback periods for retrofits. State Energy Conservation Offices 10 years > 7 states (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, etc.) 15 years > 11 states (DC, Hawaii, Maryland, etc.) 20 years > 8 states (Alabama, Delaware, Florida, etc.) 25 years > 3 states (Arizona, Colorado, Idaho) 35 years > 1 states (New York) 11/6/

21 II. Factors affecting contracting period 1) Investment? 11/6/

22 II. Factors affecting contracting period 1) Investment? Initial capital investment + Operation & Maintenance investment 11/6/

23 II. Factors affecting contracting period 1) Investment? Initial capital investment + Operation & Maintenance investment 2) Revenue? 11/6/

24 II. Factors affecting contracting period 1) Investment? Initial capital investment + Operation & Maintenance investment 2) Revenue? Energy cost savings (Amount of energy savings + Energy price) 11/6/

25 II. Factors affecting contracting period 1) Investment? Initial capital investment + Operation & Maintenance investment 2) Revenue? Energy cost savings (Amount of energy savings + Energy price) 3) Profit sharing? 11/6/

26 II. Factors affecting contracting period 1) Investment? Initial capital investment + Operation & Maintenance investment 2) Revenue? Energy cost savings (Amount of energy savings + Energy price) 3) Profit sharing? Contract design (Guaranteed energy cost savings + Profit sharing percentage + Excess profit sharing beyond guarantee) 11/6/

27 II. Factors affecting contracting period Energy Performance Contracting (Siemens Building Technologies, 2010) 11/6/

28 II. Factors affecting contracting period Contract design St G G St G G St G G ( S G) (1 )( S G) t t 11/6/

29 III. Simulation model 11/6/

30 III. Simulation model 11/6/

31 III. Simulation modeling 11/6/

32 III. Simulation modeling 11/6/

33 III. Simulation modeling 11/6/

34 III. Simulation modeling 11/6/

35 III. Simulation modeling 11/6/

36 III. Simulation modeling I C I OM P E I O R O NPV O ( ) ( ) NPV E I E R E 11/6/

37 III. Simulation modeling 11/6/

38 III. Simulation modeling 11/6/

39 III. Simulation modeling 11/6/

40 IV. Case study April 2009 Comprehensive Energy Efficiency and Guaranteed Savings Program 11/6/

41 11/6/

42 IV. Case study Sample paths of energy savings performances 11/6/

43 IV. Case study Sample paths of shared energy savings performance 11/6/

44 IV. Case study Relations between contracting period and NPV of profit 11/6/

45 IV. Case study Sensitivity Analysis Initial capital investment Annual guaranteed savings 11/6/

46 Sensitivity Analysis (continue) Owner s expected profit share within guarantee Owner s expected profit share beyond guarantee Owner s expected rate of return ESCO s expected rate of return 11/6/

47 V. Conclusion 11/6/

48 V. Conclusion This research provides an way to determine the length of contracting period in energy performance contracting (EPC) 11/6/

49 V. Conclusion This research provides an way to determine the length of contracting period in energy performance contracting (EPC) Varied uncertainty factors within the contracting period are considered 11/6/

50 V. Conclusion This research provides an way to determine the length of contracting period in energy performance contracting (EPC) Varied uncertainty factors within the contracting period are considered Worth popularizing in simulation performance based contracting 11/6/

51 V. Future research 11/6/

52 V. Future research 11/6/

53 Questions? 11/6/

54 THANK YOU! Presenter: Qianli Deng (Shally) University of Maryland, College Park Office:

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