Crisis : the stakes for the Economy

Transcription

1 Europe-MENA Urban Network The Cities Meetings Preventing Major Urban Risks The Responsibilities of Mayors and Local authorities Crisis : the stakes for the Economy How can the economic costs of a major crisis be evaluated? How can cities protect themselves from the onset of a crisis? Roland NUSSBAUM Managing Director Mission des sociétés d assurance pour la connaissance et la prévention des risques naturels (MRN an association between FFSA and GEMA) Chairman Natural hazards working group, Property Committee of Comité Européen des Assurances (CEA) 1

2 OUTLINE Introducing MRN and CEA Municipalities and the insurance industry Four key messages Comments - illustrations to these messages Summary 2

3 1. Introduction to MRN and CEA 3

4 Introducing the association Mission Risques Naturels Mission des sociétés d assurances pour la connaissance et la prévention des risques naturels created 2000 between : Fédération Française des Sociétés d'assurance LES MUTUELLES D ASSURANCE 4

5 Mission Risques Naturels Activities, services & tools Knowledge management infrastructures : o MRN net portal o MRN GIS : studies with local authorities Prevention : risk awareness raising documents, directions for use of PPR** Policyholders information on links between insurance and prevention : brochures * Geographic Information Systems ** Plans de prévention des risques 5

6 Brochures aimed at risk awareness raising : 6

7 Provide access to hazard knowledge tools 7

8 MRN is also committed to A constant dialogue with all stakeholders networks for natural risk prevention in France : State and local authorities, Trade associations, Civil society, NGOs IPGR Constant experience sharing with other insurance markets, via chairmanship of the Natural Hazards working group of Comité Européen des Assurances (CEA) 8

9 A starting cooperation with similar association for Africa : CARC Centre Africain des Risques Catastrophiques created 2005 by Société Centrale de Réassurance (SCR) Casablanca, Morocco Together with : Algerian market Tunisian market (chairmanship of AIO) South African market Indian reinsurance company With the support of: World Bank CNUCED 9

10 1.2. Comité Européen des Assurances (CEA) o Official Trade association of european insurance markets o Natural Hazards Working Group, within Property insurance Committee 10

11 Natural Hazards working group: participating delegations 11

12 2. Local authorities and insurance industry Large municipalities are customers of the commercial lines corporate insurance business (public procurement rules in EU) Case of insurance mutuals created by municipalities (property, casualty and employee benefits) Case of small personnal lines insurance mutuals with statutory membership limited at municipality level : catastrophic risk spreading limitation 12

13 Insurability depends on Type of peril o Spatial delimitation? o Contractual denomination (Y/N) Hazard frequency / Loss magnitude Type and vulnerability degree of assets Mutualization degree of risks, according to : o type of perils o perimeter and duration of mutualization 13

14 3. Four key messages and their significance to local authorities (LA) 14

15 Key message 1 Insurance is a condition for development Catastrophe risk management, including risk financing through insurance techniques, is a condition for developement and not a consequence for development LA have a societal responsibility for creating better insurability conditions together with solidarity, within their resilience schemes, with potential support of UNO Agencies, IFIs (World Bank ) and EU or other bilateral development support programs 15

16 Key message 2 Natcat insurance schemes multiply More and more countries / markets around Mediterranean sea such as: Algeria, Italy, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Turkey are considering or developing natcat insurance coverage schemes Extensive experiences on LA implication with regulatory risk zoning, governance, public information to benefit from French municipalities 16

17 Key message 3 Insurance engineering tools are available Insurance companies and markets have developped dedicated risk knowledge tools to assess the exposure of their portfolios and organize potential crisis management = some technical similarities with LA approaches Specific LA dedicated to integrated risk management policies (eg. Floodplain managers) have been identified by insurers as professionnal risk managers with, in some cases, financial risk transfer functions to develop (specific defences for frequency floods involving upstream/downstream solidarity ) 17

18 Key message 4 Public Private Partnerships (PPP) are necessary In most mediterranean countries risk profiles, financial capacities required from reinsurance and insurance markets might not be sufficient for very extreme events: State and/or international solidarity might be necessary on top of insurance scheme LA to play a determinant role in these PPPs (see KM 1, 2, 3) 18

19 4. Comments - illustrations to key messages 19

20 4.1. Insurance is a condition for development (Illustration 1) «Exposure to natural catastrophes can be measured in terms of private assets which are no more dedicated to development, especially if there is no insurance available.» Prime minister of Granada Kobe UN-ISDR World Conference 2005 on disaster reduction 20

21 4.1. Insurance is a condition for development (Illustration 2) «Poor people should not be left to struggle alone against calamity : they deserve more access to meaningful financial risk-sharing arrangements such as insurance and reinsurance against disasters, through imaginative public private partnerships». Ian Egeland, UN - Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Kobe UN-ISDR World Conference 2005 on disaster reduction 21

22 atural catastrophes from 1950 to 2003 in the world ore than 100 victims or more than 100 millions US $ of losses 22

23 Evolution of claims paid in France in millions of per insurance scheme : catnat (floods, subsidence...) and TGN (storms) CATNAT TGN storms floods 3000 floods subsidence floods

24 4.2. Natcat insurance schemes multiply Financing tools for NH risk management Ex post : Ex ante : Individuals State budget = public solidarity, Recovery / reconstruction aid or loans (IFIs), NGOs = private solidarity insurance schemes (mutualization leveraged by compulsory solidarity) + integrated risk management policies Public or private funding 24

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26 4.3. Insurance engineering tools are available Economic tools for NH risk management Metering and modelling tools Ex ante : how much is the cost Ex post : how much could be the cost? o Micro : Ex post : loss adjustment Ex ante : vulnerability diagnostic o Macro : Ex post : Event cumulated cost 1st estimate, Event characterization (mapping and zoning) Ex ante : modelling of different occurrence scenarios using GIS 26

27 DE CZ Market proprietary zoning tools Public zoning tools used by the market Initial Trial Results in 2002 Results from NaFRA 2004 FR Key to maps Significant Risk = red Moderate Risk = yellow Risk reduced from significant to moderate. Low Risk = green Area above also reduced from moderate to low. Area circled includes risk assessment for river not previously mapped. Risk also better defined and some areas are now shown at significant risk. 27 UK

28 4.4. Public Private Partnerships (PPP) are necessary PPP s 3 segments / components Political o o Sustainable development objectives, integrating rights for compensation mechanisms, provided compliance to prevention and mitigation requirements Solidarity and insurability treatment options : compulsory extended coverage, public systems to address market excluded risks Financial : structuring of compensation schemes o o o o Autoinsurance (deductible) / microassurance (if required) Compensation schemes under responsibility of dedicated local authorities (in case of specific defences increasing the exposure of selected assets) Market insurance and reinsurance National and international solidarity (if necessary) Organisational and technical o Insurance pricing (premium / deductible) and conditions provide : Risk awareness raising economic incentive for individual and collective mitigation initiatives : Land use planning rules Construction rules Moral hazard reduction 28

29 To summarise Magnitude (cumulated) State and international solidarity ( + fund / claims management services) Market insurance services rare Local authority and individual frequency (+ insurance engineering services) frequent 29

30 Thank you for your attention