Barry J. Barnett. Department of Agricultural Economics USA
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1 Risk Financing Mechanisms An Overview of Conceps and da Approaches Barry J. Barne Deparmen of Agriculural Economics Mississippi Sae Universiy USA Climae Change Climae change is expeced o change he cenral endency of imporan weaher variables. For example, models generally predic higher average emperaures. Bu regional projecions of average emperaures vary grealy. And projecions regarding he iming of changes vary grealy. Climae change is expeced o increase boh he probabiliy and he magniude of exreme weaher evens. Bu projecing changes in volailiy is even less precise han esimaing effecs on he cenral endency.
2 Climae Change Lower income counries (LICs) will be mos severely impaced. LICs generally: have economies ha are more dependen on agriculure; have limied social safey nes; and lile risk miigaion infrasrucure. Adapaion i Invesmens Reducing risk exposure: infrasrucure, educaion and raining o prepare for modified or alernaive livelihood sraegies, new producion echnologies (e.g., improved seed varieies), ec. Risk ransfer: insurance and oher sources of coningen financing o recover from he occurrence of an exreme even.
3 Adapaion i Invesmens Decisions i abou adapaion i invesmens mus also be made in concer wih decisions abou oher economic developmen invesmens. Economic growh in iself will end o faciliae adapaion. Relaively wealhier (poorer) counries and individuals will be mos (leas) able o adap o climae change. Risk Transfer Insurance markes are underdeveloped in mos LICs. Tradiional crop insurance or propery insurance is no viable. Sraighforward bu effecive mechanisms are needed o ransfer caasrophic weaher risks from LICs o inernaional reinsurance and capial markes. Currenly, much aenion on index- based risk ransfer mechanisms.
4 Weaher Index Insurance Insures agains a specific exreme weaher even, measured in a specified manner, occurring a a specific place during a specific ime. For example: insures agains cumulaive rainfall less han 100 mm measured a a specific weaher saion during he monh of July. Could be based on various weaher measures: emperaure, flood levels, saellie imagery, ec. Insures agains weaher evens ha are exreme relaive o he expeced value. Will no insure agains he longer run secular rend in weaher variables caused by climae change. Limiaion: Basis risk. Benefis of Insurance Insurance pricing i sends a clear signal abou he magniude of risk exposure. Insurance increases financial resilience o exreme weaher evens. Paymens can be used o: Coninue previous endeavors by replacing damaged asses; or Make capial invesmens needed o pursue alernaive endeavors.
5 Subsidies? Buyer should pay premiums based on risk exposure. Premium subsidies can acually slow adapaion. Creae disincenives for policyholder o adop risk reducing sraegies. Policyholders may even ake on more risk hereby increasing heir vulnerabiliy o climae change. Subsidies are leas disoring for: Sar-up coss. Adminisraive coss. Caasrophic layer of risk. Summary Economic growh will end o faciliae climae change adapaion. Adapaion invesmens mus be carefully allocaed across inervenions ha improve risk miigaion and/or risk ransfer. Exreme weaher evens may become more prevalen and severe wih climae change. Weaher index insurance is one mechanism for ransferring hese risks. However, adapaion involves much more han jus insurance! Weaher index insurance will no insure agains he longer run secular rend in weaher variables caused by climae change. Insurance premium m subsidies can acually all creae disincenives for adapaion. Any subsidies should be carefully focused o reduce he likelihood of his occurring.
6 Commens based on: Collier, B., J. Skees, and B. Barne. Weaher Index Insurance and Climae Change: Opporuniies and Challenges in Lower Income Counries. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance 34(2009): Barne, B.J., C.B. Barre, and J.R. Skees. Povery Traps and Index-Based Risk Transfer Producs. World Developmen 36(2008): Skees, J.R., B.J. Barne, and A.G. Murphy. Creaing Insurance Markes for Naural Disaser Risk in Lower Income Counries: The Poenial Role for Securiizaion. Agriculural Finance Review 68(2008):
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