A Wildfire Risk Assessment for Belgium. Overview. The Wildfires of National Wildfire Action Plan. Notes. Notes. Notes. Notes

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1 A for Belgium Prof. dr. ir. ir. Arthur Depicker Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University December 11, 2018 (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University)December 11, / 21 1 (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University)December 11, / 21 The Wildfires of 2011 More than 2000 ha of nature destroyed les Hautes Fagnes 1399 ha de Kalmthoutse Heide 500 ha military domain in Meeuwen-Gruitrode 360 ha Mainly NATURA 2000 (a) de Kalmthoutse Heide (b) les Hautes Fagnes (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University)December 11, / 21 National Wildfire Action Plan Both good and bad practices were experienced need for a better coordination of wildfire respons need for adapted cartography July 5, 2011: initiation of the National Wildfire Action Plan 5 themes: risk analysis & cartography materials procedures and training emergency planning exercises (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University)December 11, / 21

2 National Wildfire Action Plan (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University)December 11, / 21 EU Legislation Regulation (EU) No 1305/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 December 2013 on support for rural development by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) and repealing Council Regulation (EC) No 1698/2005 preventive actions against fires should be undertaken in areas classified by Member States as medium or high fire risk. in the case of preventive actions concerning pests and diseases, the risk of a relevant disaster occurrence must be supported by scientific evidence and acknowledged by scientific public organisations. forest areas classified as medium to high forest fire risk according to the forest protection plan established by the Member States shall be eligible for support relating to forest fire prevention. (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University)December 11, / 21 1 (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University)December 11, / 21 Data Collection Sources Federal Public Service Internal Affairs: newspaper articles: , online newspaper articles: , archives of the Royal Library in Brussels 756 wildfire interventions registered Mainly human causes! 273 useful spatial data points GPS coordinates were retrieved after 1994 but are these reliable? Recommendations future data collection register GPS coordinates and perimeter correct labelling of wildfire interventions (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University)December 11, / 21

3 CHAPTER 2 THE CONCEPT OF WILDFIRES 15 Fire Season wildfires provided by the Directorate-General of the Federal Public Service Internal A airs is assumed to be complete % of wildfires Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Figure 2.5: The relative frequency of the 744 wildfires ignitions between and (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University)December 11, / Wildfire Management in Belgium In 2011, a series of wildfires raged through de Hoge Venen (the High Fens), de Kalmthoutse Heide (heathland) and the military domain in Meeuwen, destroying respectively 1000, 500 Wildfires Between and 360 ha. In total, ha of land were burnt that year, mainly NATURA 2000 sites (Schmuck et al., 2012). The experience with the suppression of these fires learned that there was a lack of coherent operation procedures. Moreover, the fire fighting teams needed more specific training, procedures, material and a risk map. On July 5, 2011, the National Action Plan Wildfires 70 was introduced by the Directorate-General of the Federal Public Service Internal A airs in order to evaluate and improve the risk analysis and cartography, materials, 60 procedures and training, emergency planning, and exercises. To each theme, a workgroup was Number of interventions dedicated, in order 50 to solve the problems e ciently and coherently (Federal Public Service Internal A airs, 2013). 40 Risk Analysis and Cartography number of interventions between In 2011, the emergency planning services of the provincial governors compiled a risk map 20 with 32 risk zones. The selection of risk areas was based on common sense and discussions 10 between the participants in the dedicated working group. This approach resulted in a number of problems, among which the lack of uniformity that is needed for collaboration between intervention teams of di erent regions. In Chapter 3, more scientifically elaborated approaches Year (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University) December 11, / 21 Spatial Wildfire Data (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University) December 11, / 21 Spatial data Region Province Number of ignitions Flanders Wallonia Antwerp 71 Flemish Brabant 19 West-Flanders 6 East-Flanders 6 Limburg 113 Hainaut 5 Walloon Brabant 3 Liège 15 Luxembourg 21 Namur 14 Brussels 0 Total 273 (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University) December 11, / 21

4 1 (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University) December 11, / 21 Risk determinants (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University) December 11, / 21 Belgian wildfire risk map P(I C i ) = P(I ) P(C i I ) P(C i ) P(I ) = average annual number of interventions total number of cells P(C i I ) = number of interventions on C i total number of interventions P(C i ) = area of C i total area I is an intervention event C i is a combination of land cover, soil, and land use Wildfire risk map Intervention probability map (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University) December 11, / 21 Risk classes Risk Interval ( 10 6 ) Land cover Land cover & soil Land cover, soil & land use Low < Intermediate High Very high > Average P ( 10 6 ) (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University) December 11, / 21

5 Risk map robustness How robust is the risk map? How important is the size of the data set? Mean intervention 6 probability (x 10 ) Number of data points Upper limit of data selection period Upper limit of data selection period (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University) December 11, / 21 Belgian wildfire risk map Low Intermediate High Very high No data (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University) December 11, / 21 Provincial breakdown Region Province Low Intm. High Very high Flanders Wallonia Antwerp Flemish Brabant West-Flanders East-Flanders Limburg Hainaut Walloon Brabant Liège Luxembourg Namur Brussels (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University) December 11, / 21 Towards a pan-european wildfire risk map 1 What? 1 EGFF working group 2 Risk determinants 3 Proxies and data sources 4 JRC Technical report Basic criteria to assess wildfire risk at the pan-european level on 1)-3) 2 How? 1 Methodology 2 Implementation 3 Dissemination (Faculty of bioscience engineering Ghent University) December 11, / 21

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