México D.F., 7 Mayo 2013 NRILTD NUCLEAR RISK INSURERS LIMITED

Transcription

1 The Fukushima accident & its effect on nuclear insurance M G Tetley Nuclear Risk Insurers Ltd London México D.F., 7 Mayo 2013 NRILTD

2 CONTENTS 1. The Fukushima accident, March Nuclear insurance background. 3. Japanese nuclear liability regime. 4. Key lessons learned. 5. Accident management for insurers. 6. The Mexican context. 7. Where next for nuclear. 8. Conclusions. NRILTD 2

3 The Fukushima accident & its effect on nuclear insurance THE FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT NRILTD 3

4 Fukushima Daiichi (1) Fukushima Daini i(2) Onagawa NPP EPICENTER Tokai NPP NRILTD 4

5 Fukushima Daiichi NRILTD 5

6 Accident timeline Date Time Event 11/03/ Magnitude 9 earthquake occurs Reactors 1 3 3SCRAM Loss of all off site power Diesel generators activated Reactor cooling commences (units 1 3) 11/03/ Tsunami arrives highest water level + 14m above msl Loss of all electricity: station black out. 11/03/ Unit 1 core exposed. 12/03/ Unit 1 hydrogen explosion. 13/03/ Unit 3 core exposed. 14/03/ Unit 2 core exposed. 15/03/ Unit 2 core suppression chamber damaged; mass release of radiation. Unit 4 hydrogen explosion. NRILTD 6

7 What should have happened Power required to remove decay heat from reactors & spent fuel. 3 distinct power sources: Off site power availability via grid. Power available from adjacent units. Emergency diesel generators. Uninterruptible Power Supply (Battery pack) 8hrs to power critical safety indications, key valves, relays, emergency lighting etc. Control room (or emergency) should have functioned, allowing safe shut down of the reactors. Crisis management system implemented to ensure orderly evacuation under robust regulatory control. NRILTD 7

8 Fukushima inundated NRILTD 8

9 Radiation spread NRILTD 9

10 Accident cause IAEA report, June 2011: There were insufficient defence in depth depth provisions for tsunami hazards in particular severe accident management provisions were not adequate to cope with multiple plant failures Japanese Diet report, July 2012: The..accident was the result of collusion between the government, the regulators & TEPCO & the lack of governance by said parties. We concluded that the accident was clearly manmade NRILTD 10

11 The Fukushima accident & its effect on nuclear insurance NUCLEAR INSURANCE MARKET NRILTD 11

12 Nuclear insurance market Insurance of installations in country B Member 1 Member 2 Pool etc country B Member 1 Member 1 Member 2 Member 2 Member 3 Pool country A reinsurance reinsurance Pool country C Member 3 etc etc Insurance of installations in country A Insurance of installations in country C NRILTD 12

13 Liability & property Offsite legal obligations Liability insurance Onsite assets & cash flow Property insurance Fukushima Daiichi, Japan NRILTD 13

14 Pools: key principles Spread of risk. Market wide participation. Concentration of knowledge & expertise: cost efficiency. International capacity yet local market service. Appropriate claims handling system & extensive infrastructure. Reciprocal reinsurance. Maximum security & solvency for victims. NRILTD 14

15 Advantages of Pools I Standardised reinsurance conditions: Standard Rules developed & adapted to the needs of Pooling System; Outstanding security: net line participation & rigorous joining criteria. Joint & several liability of members (large majority) &/or reserve funds. Lower costs: standard inter pool commission. no other frictional costs. Global capacity of up to $3bn available immediately & simply. NRILTD 15

16 Advantages of Pools II Close cooperation between Pools & pool managers: reciprocity & inwards business; trust. Outstanding technical expertise: pool inspections & pool surveyors; claims handling & technological development; survey standards established for fire protection & for machinery breakdown (see: com) Industry specific expertise: Partners for Governments & international ti organisations (IAEA and OECD/NEA) in nuclear legislation. Claims handling. NRILTD 16

17 The Fukushima accident & its effect on nuclear insurance JAPANESE NUCLEAR LIABILITY NRILTD 17

18 Japanese nuclear liability Amount: 120bn for each event across Government & Pool covers NRILTD 18

19 Fukushima in numbers 2,000,000: number of people living within 80 km of Fukushima NPPs. 150,000: number of people evacuated. 167: number of workers exposed to > 100mSv radiation. 1.83m: number of claim made. 1,800 km2: area contaminated > 5mSv. 2.17trn ($22bn) paid to date; ultimately > $50bn could be paid out. NRILTD 19

20 The Fukushima accident & its effect on nuclear insurance KEY LESSONS LEARNED NRILTD 20

21 Insurers view of NPPs Pre 2011 insurance assumptions: Natural catastrophe t not the greatest t problem. PML: 1 unit lost in any event. Multiple sites would not accumulate. Post 2011 insurance assumptions: Beyond design basis accident. Common mode failure. Possibility of multiple site accumulation from natural catastrophe. NRILTD 21

22 Post 2011 assumptions I Plant Specifics Emergency power to be self sufficient; air cooled generators better than water cooled. Diverse heat sink for emergency cooling (dedicated reservoir, atmosphere). Passive autocatalytic hydrogen recombination units for LWRs. Plant Design Common mode failure (CMF) was the key problem (diverse power & diverse cooling both lost). Not just Tsunami or earthquake; any CMF from either internal or external hazard (e.g. fire, poison gas, solar flare, cyber attack, missile, il terrorism, sabotage) Independent assessment of safety critical system design; confirm adequate safety margin. NRILTD 22

23 Post 2011 assumptions II Severe Accident Management: Plant under site operator control. Diverse monitoring of critical safety functions:! reactivity,! cooling,! containment,! Shielding. Diverse, segregated provision of safety equipment. Severe accident management guidelines; training in application by all parties on & off site. Possibility of multiple site accumulation from natural catastrophe. NRILTD 23

24 The Fukushima accident & its effect on nuclear insurance THE MEXICAN CONTEXT NRILTD 24

25 Laguna Verde NPP 22 X 650 MW BWR: same basic design as Fukushima. 10 years younger: entered service levels of nuclear protection. Recent 120% EPU project to extend life & increase output. Waste stored on site: an issue for environmentalists? Regulated by La Comisión Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias (CNSNS) NRILTD 25

26 CNSNS emergency NRILTD 26

27 V emergency planning Plan de emergencia interno (PEI): safeguard workers, equipment & public. Plan de Emergencia Radiológica Externo (PERE): minimise or avoid radiation exposure to environment & public. Post Fukushima us activities: t spent fuel work,,sbo extension (4 72 hrs), reactor & containment improvements; all to US NRC standards by Major cat event: hurricane. 27

28 Mexican earthquake Laguna a Verde NPP NRILTD 28

29 Highway 180 Xalapa 30km ring Veracruz 29

30 The Fukushima accident & its effect on nuclear insurance NUCLEAR ACCIDENT MANAGEMENT FOR INSURERS NRILTD 30

31 Insurers role after an accident Insurers capital at risk: Operator!Safeguarding f of payment authority. Need for comprehensive infrastructure:!national & international, nuclear pools have cross border agreements;!immediate, long term Nuclear &N & secure. Total claims handling service Insurers to ensure continuity & consistency with State payout. Important Public Government for victims & perhaps for politicians. NRILTD 31

32 Claims handling I Most laws require compensation for nuclear accident victims; system must be efficient & large scale ( 00,000s millions of claims). Independence of risk transfer market a political advantage. Operators compromised: financially & politically (e.g. TEPCO). Interface between Governments (higher layers) & insurers (statutory amounts). Pools, as market entities, have infrastructure available for swift implementation & fair adjustment. NRILTD 32

33 Claims handling II Contracts in place with key partners, covering all performance requirements. Key is working together with operator & other emergency authorities e.g. police, medical professionals. Annual testing of claims management system. Information & exception reporting. Call centre, website, smartphones, social media all have to be used. NRILTD 33

34 UK claims portal NRILTD 34

35 NRI claims system Internet/IT Adjuster Legal Academics HM Govern ment NRI members NRI Management reports & information Clients: NDA EdF Westinghouse URENCO GE Healthcare Imperial College Rolls Royce Etc. NRILTD 35

36 Difficulties experienced Sufficient numbers in tests. Client apathy & conflict: Operator is liable reputation & P.R. Insurers capital. No prioritisation in UK. Smaller clients. Government focus. Objective: have the pool system accepted as the UK standard for all clients, claims & losses. This would fulfil l our treaty obligation. NRILTD 36

37 The ideal plan? Classification & notification of emergencies. Monitoring & information management. Emergency management & operations. Mitigation & protection: Protecting emergency workers; Medical response & countermeasures externally. Evacuation? Communication: keeping the public informed. Testing. Industry suffers from lack of trust. NRILTD 37

38 The Fukushima accident & its effect on nuclear insurance WHERE NEXT FOR NUCLEAR? NRILTD 38

39 Nuclear: future new build? Lithuania Poland Turkey Jordan Saudi Arabia Nigeria Bangladesh Vietnam Malaysia U.A.E. Thailand Indonesia NRILTD 39

40 Public opinion 30% 20% 10% 0% Unknown Oppose Japan: 04 06/ /2011 Jun 11 Apr 11 UK opinion: 03/2013 Support 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 72.0% 70.0% 68.0% 66.0% 64.0% 62.0% 60.0% USA: support for nuclear 02/ /201208/ % 56.0% Feb 11 1 Abr 11 1 Jun 11 1 Ago 11 1 Oct 11 1 Dic 11 1 Feb 12 Abr 12 Jun 12 Ago 12 Public opinion is recovering Particularly where there s little cat exposure NRILTD 40

41 The Fukushima accident & its effect on nuclear insurance CONCLUSIONS NRILTD 41

42 Conclusions A large nuclear catastrophe could cost in excess of $50bn. Insurers, government & operators will need to work together to manage a large event. Insurers are well placed to be the trusted, independent & well resourced compensation focal point following an event. Comprehensive emergency planning needs to be in place ideally before the event! NRILTD 42

43 The Fukushima accident & its effect on nuclear insurance Questions MGTetley Nuclear Risks Insurers Ltd NRILTD 43

44 Gracias por su atención México D.F., 7 Mayo 2013 NRILTD