Natural Disasters in the Caribbean: Assessing the Physical and Economic Impacts, Mitigation and Insurance

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1 Department of Economics Natural Disasters in the Caribbean: Assessing the Physical and Economic Impacts, Mitigation and Insurance Co-organized by the Chairs for Sustainable Development-EDF-Ecole Polytechnique and AXA-Large Risk in Insurance October 28 th, 2011 Location: Institut de Paléontologie Humaine 1 rue René Panhard, Paris 13 e M : Gare d Austerlitz Organizers: Dominique Bureau, Pierre Picard, and Eric Strobl Ecole Polytechnique Presentation of the workshop: The over 40 million inhabitants of the two dozen Caribbean islands are at the front line of vulnerability to natural disasters. More specifically, more so than any other region, the Caribbean is home to relatively frequent hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic outbreaks and landslides. Moreover, anticipated increases in temperature are expected to raise sea levels in the long term. But natural disasters can be particularly consequential for small economies, as one finds almost exclusively in the Caribbean. For example, with 70 percent of the region s population and an equal share of its infrastructure along threatened coastlines, the consequent 1

2 destruction of natural habitat and infrastructure through sea level rise and hurricanes is likely to endanger the very lifeblood of many of the Caribbean economies tourism and agriculture further increasing already widespread poverty. Estimates of the potential costs of future natural disasters have in fact ranged of up to $46 billion by 2100 and it has been postulated that many economies may fall into a perpetual state of recession in the face of inaction. But what are the real risks? How have, can, and will the region respond and prepare itself in response to the threats posed by natural disasters? What options for insuring and mitigating against these risks are available in the Caribbean? The search for answers to these questions has now sparked an emergence of academic, governmental, and private bodies specifically addressing the issue of natural disasters in the region. Nevertheless, the state of knowledge is still in its infancy. Purpose: This one day workshop intends to bring together the experts in industry, academia and government in the area to present and discuss the themes within this context. In particular, the invited speakers will focus on three believed to be most threatening types of natural disasters sea level rise, hurricanes and earthquakes - discussing their risk, implications, and potential mitigation options at hand. Audience: The audience is intended to be of both academic and non-academic nature, where presentations and discussion will be geared to be accessible to even non-experts. Invitations to attend will hence be sent to academic institutions (universities, research centers) as well as potentially interested non-academic organizations (EDF, AXA, OECD, EU, CARICOM), ranging from practitioners, economists, policymakers to natural scientists. It is anticipated to cater for an audience of around 100 guests. Speakers: While the list of speakers has yet to be finalized, the intention is to gather a healthy mix of both local (French and European based) as well as those directly coming from the Caribbean. Moreover, speakers will consist of experts from academia (ex: Ecole Polytechnique, University of West Indies, University of Birmingham, University de Martinique etc.) private institutions (EDF, AXA, Munich RE etc.), and relevant government bodies (CARICOM, World Bank, CCRIF etc.). 2

3 Schedule: 8h30-9h: 9h-9h15: 9h15-10h45: Registration Welcome Speech First Session Sea Level Rise Dr. Sonja Teelucksingh (University of West Indies): "A Rural Community Perspective of Climate Change in Developing Countries: State of Knowledge, Level of Concern and Perception of Risk" Professor Patrick Watson (SALISES, University of West Indies): Tourism Flows and Marine Biodiversity in Small Island Developing States: Evidence from Panel Data 10h45-11h: 11h-12h30: Coffee Break Second Session Earthquakes Professor John Mutter (Earth Institute, Columbia University): Nature s extremes in the Caribbean 12h30: Lunch Charley Granvorka (CEREGMIA, Universite des Antilles et de la Guyane): Haiti in the Aftermath of the Earthquake of January h30-15h: Third Session Hurricanes Dr. Rick Murnane (Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences) : The Influence of Climate Variability on Hurricane Landfall Rates Eric Strobl (Ecole Polytechnique) The Economic Growth Impact of Hurricanes in the Caribbean 15h-15h15: 15h30-17h: Coffee Break Fourth Session - Insuring Against Natural Disasters and Disaster Mitigation 3

4 Stacia Yearwood (Caribbean Risk Insurance Facility): CCRIF: A Disaster Mitigation Mechanism for Caribbean Countries Christine Herridge (International Resources Group) Public and Private Initiatives, Results and Challenges for Disaster Insurance and Mitigation. 17h-17h45: Roundtable Discussion 4

5 BIOGRAPHIES Charley G. Granvorka is a researcher and consultant at CEREGMIA, Universite des Antilles et de la Guyane working on various aspects of environmental economics as it relates to the Caribbean. She is currently completing her PhD thesis on the topic of plantation economics and calculable general equilibrium, comparing the cases of Haiti and St. Domingo. Christine Herridge is Manager in IRG s Relief and Reconstruction Division and directs IRG s ANE MOBIS contract with USAID providing Washington DC-based technical and administrative personnel and other services in support of USAID s efforts in the Middle East, Asia, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. She has more than 15 years of experience serving in international disaster management roles, creating alliances for disaster preparedness, and risk mitigation, in the Dominican Republic, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. Rick Murnane is the Program Manager for the Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) and a Senior Research Scientist at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences (BIOS). As Program Manager, Dr. Murnane leads RPI s efforts at transforming science into knowledge that can be used to assess risk from natural hazards. He received a Ph.D. in Geological and Geophysical Sciences from Princeton University. 5

6 John Mutter is a Professor jointly appointed in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and in the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and is Director of Graduate Studies for the PhD in Sustainable Development. He studies the role of natural disasters in sustainable development. Eric Strobl is Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at Ecole Polytechnique. He is also external research professor at SALISES and a member of CREST. His research interests lie, amongst other things, on the economics of natural disasters. He holds a PhD in Economics from Trinity College Dublin. Patrick K Watson holds a Doctoral degree in Mathematical Economics and Econometrics from the Université de Paris I (Panthéon-Sorbonne). He has been Director of the Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social & Economic Studies of the University of the West Indies since 2003 and now serves as University Director and Professor of Applied Economics. Prior to that, he served as Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences from 1995 to Stacia Yearwood is the Assistant Vice President of Analytics at Caribbean Risk Managers Ltd (CaribRM, the Facility Supervisor of Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility). Stacia joined CaribRM upon completion of her MSc in Actuarial Science from the University of Kent, Canterbury. Operating out of CaribRM s office in Barbados, Stacia utilises her analytical skills towards risk assessment and analysis specifically in the context of catastrophe risk management. 6

7 Sonja S. Teelucksingh holds a Ph.D. in Environmental Economics and Environmental Management from the University of York (United Kingdom). She is a Lecturer at the Economics Department of the University of the West Indies (St. Augustine) and an Associate Researcher with the Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies (SALISES). Her research interests are on natural resource management in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) with specific reference to climate change adaptation strategies, climate-compatible development policies, and the valuation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. 7

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