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1 October 212 S T R I C T L Y P R I V A T E A N D C O N F I D E N T I A L

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5 A recently lowered 4Q12 price forecast reflects the idea that low price will need to solve low price as we start to hone in on the end of season storage trajectory Balance of 212 and 213 outlook Though lowering our fourth quarter price forecast for 212 can be considered risky from a forecasting perspective, the current level of the year-over-year storage surplus has created a likely scenario for a leg lower in price as we exit the peak summer months The front of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures curve will be wrought with choppiness and volatility during the shoulder season. Price-related demand this year will be facing off against weather-related demand experienced last year. There could be several weeks this summer where the year-over-year storage surplus could in fact build Additionally, we are currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding the potential for more coal fired powered generation to come back in order to meet baseload demand, displacing some of the current natural gas fired power generation. With coal stock piles reaching record-high levels, utilities have been faced with decisions on how to remedy these record levels in stock piles In leaving our third quarter forecast in place and lowering the fourth quarter, we are suggesting that more significant upside risk appears during the month of December when January 213 is trading prompt and when we could be crossing year-over-year parity in terms of working gas in storage inventories Our analysis of calendar 213 price formation has consistently assumed that the more bearish conditions became in 12, the more buoyant 13 could become. That contention is somewhat related to the low near-term prices causing a continuation of the rationalization of the upstream community in terms of gas directed drilling and somewhat related to the ongoing price-dependent organic growth in true demand and coal-to-gas switching. We hold our 13 price forecast in place, as our base case assumes that those two factors hold firm Detailed J.P. Morgan Natural Gas Price Forecast In $/MMBtu 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q Current Forecast* Previous Forecast** Actual To Date All forecasts are period averages. Actual to date prices are as of May 24, 212. *As of May 24, 212. **As of March 22, 212. Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy. 1

6 The one-off event of an extremely mild winter has resulted in the current storage overhang experienced today current EOS trajectory is ~3.9 Tcf but uncertainties prevail US natural gas storage Storage data, week ended October 5 In Bcf Five-Year Range Five-Year Average Week Ending Consuming East Consuming West Producing Total Lower-48 3,6 5-Oct ,725 3,1 Year Ago ,521 2,6 2,1 5-Yr Max ,658 1,6 1,1 6 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Source: EIA, JPMorgan Energy Research 5-Yr Mean ,461 5-Yr Min ,198 Source: EIA, JPMorgan Energy Research 2

7 Coal to gas switching has tightened the gas balance to a point that could potentially be enough to clear up much of the storage overhang Break-out of power generation from natural gas, coal and nuclear thousand MWH 4.% 4, 35, 35.% 3, 25, 3.% 2, 15, 25.% 1, 2.% 5, Jan-7 Jun-7 Nov-7 Apr-8 Sep-8 Feb-9 Jul-9 Dec-9 May-1 Oct-1 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan % Jun-12 Gas percentage Total Coal Natural gas Nuclear Source: EIA, JPMorgan Energy Research 3

8 Shale production growth dominates over other unconventional and conventional production sources Shale vs total dry gas production (MMcf/day) Make-up of shale production (MMcf/day) 7 3, Barnett Shale Woodford Fay ettev ille Hay nesv ille 6 Rest of Prod Shale Prod 25, Eagle Ford Marcellus Other Shale 5 2, 4 15, 3 1, 2 5, Source: Lippman Consulting, EIA, JPMorgan Energy Research Jan-7 Sep-7 May -8 Jan-9 Sep-9 May -1 Jan-11 Sep-11 May -12 Source: Lippman Consulting, EIA, JPMorgan Energy Research 4

9 Increased technology and gained efficiencies has structurally changed the supply side of the balance; horizontal drilling became the wave of the future Oil and gas-directed rig count by type of rig drilling # of rigs 25 7% 2 6% 5% 15 4% 1 3% 2% 5 1% Jan-2 Sep-2 May-3 Jan-4 Sep-4 May-5 Jan-6 Sep-6 % Horiz Directional Horizontal Vertical Total Source: Baker Hughes, JPMorgan Energy Research 5 May-7 Jan-8 Sep-8 May-9 Jan-1 Sep-1 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 %

10 Yet, changes in rig count do little to indicate change in production growth rates significant amount of wells awaiting completion Barnett Fayetteville Marcellus Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun Eagle Ford Haynesville Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Note: Production in MMcf/day Source: Baker Hughes, Lippman Consulting 6

11 Infrastructure will be key for supply growth in the near- to intermediate-term Haynesville producing wells vs wells awaiting completion Northeast pipeline expansions 25 Producing Wells Wells Awaiting Completion Bcf/day Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Source: Louisiana Department of Natural Resources, JPMorgan Energy Research Source: Bentek Energy LLC, JPMorgan Energy Research 7

12 Low price and volatility has encouraged organic growth in industrial demand Petrochemical, steel and fertilizer manufacturers are part of the industrial demand growth in the US Signs of life have emerged in industrial demand as gas consumers in the agriculture and petrochemicals space shift their businesses back to the US in an effort to reduce costs given the recent supply glut MMcf/month 7 US natural gas industrial demand We often point to the steel industry as a proxy for industrials. Steel manufacturing capacity utilization is currently near 8% just about 4% higher than levels realized during the global recession in 29. In fact, the steel industry is not only reaping benefits from lower costs for natural gas as a feedstock, but also finding new ways to integrate natural gas in the production of steel, in order to replace some costlier processes and materials For example, a major steel manufacturer in the US offered two alternatives to its blast-furnace steelmaking process: direct reduced iron (DRI) and electric arc furnace (EAF). In these processes, less costly iron ore stripped of oxygen can ultimately be used to replace coke and metallurgic coal both of which have experienced higher demand globally Jan-7 Sep-7 May-8 Jan-9 Sep-9 May-1 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Source: EIA, JPMorgan Energy Research

13 Natural gas is an important and ever-growing part of the power generation demand make-up in the US with reinstatement of CAIR and the upcoming implementation of MATs Mercury Air Toxic Standards more onerous than CSAPR US power generation by source (May) The final rule sets standards for all hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) emitted by coal- and oil-fired electric generating units (EGUs) with a capacity of 25 megawatts or greater. Natural Gas 3.1% Petroleum Liquids.3% Conv entional Hy dro 8.5% Other Renew ables 6.4% All regulated EGUs are considered major under the final rule. EPA did not identify any size, design or engineering distinction between major and area sources. Coal 34.4% Existing sources generally will have up to 4 years if they need it to comply with MATS. Source:EPA This includes the 3 years provided to all sources by the Clean Air Act. EPAs analysis continues to demonstrate that this will be sufficient time for most, if not all, sources to comply. Under the Clean Air Act, state permitting authorities can also grant an additional year as needed for technology installation. EPA expects this option to be broadly available. 9 Nuclear 2.% Source: EIA, JPMorgan Energy Research Future gas-fired generation projects MW Planned Project Under Construction Source: JPMorgan Equity Research Note: Data reflects projects only within the scope of the Equity desk s coverage universe

14 The fate of US LNG exports resides in the hands of politicians; it is unlikely we see another export approval license granted in the US until after the elections Major potential LNG facilities in NA Summary Bcf/d There are 11 liquefaction projects/sites that have been proposed or identified in the U.S. under FERC s radar. In Canada, there are currently 3 facilities (including Kitimat) Shell has recently proposed another liquefaction facility in British Columbia that will compete with the current Apache/EOG/Encana Kitimat project. Shell has partnered with several Asian companies for this project Sabine Pass Lake Charles Freeport Cove Point Source: FERC, JPMorgan Energy Research Calendar strip 215 $/M M Btu Cameron Gulf Coast Kitimat Corpus Christi 3.9 Jan-12 M ar-12 M ay-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan Energy Research There is currently only one facility in the US approved for export of domestic natural gas to all countries that have the ability to import the commodity. In recent months, the Sabine Pass liquefaction project has gained four longterm supply and purchase agreements, amounting to about 89% of the total nominal LNG volume. The customers developed through these agreements are BG Gulf Coast LNG, LLC, Gas Natural Fenosa, GAIL (India) Ltd., and KOGAS The project owner announced plans to secure financing from Blackstone Capital Partners VI L.P. for the facility The Sabine Pass liquefaction project will likely require $4.5-5 billion before financing costs for the completion of the first two trains. The completion of these trains is slated for late 215 early 216 Source: corporate reports, FERC, JPMorgan Energy Research 1

15 While impacts from NGVs on the balance are minimal currently, higher oil prices in the intermediate- to deferred-terms could shift demand significantly higher Mid-weight to tractor trailer vehicles are most likely to benefit from low natural gas prices at this time Nowhere is there more potential for dramatic volumetric or percentage growth than vehicle transport given the slow buildout of both fueling infrastructure and actual vehicles enabled for natural gas fueling Much of the noise and the lion s share of actual announcements in the media has been for compressed natural gas (CNG) for several reasons: Its preference in light to medium natural gas vehicles (NGVs) Fleets have been the first movers in terms of adoption due to the fixed territory in which to site a fueling station Source: NGV Global, JPMorgan Energy Research 11 West Virginia Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin is reportedly planning to issue an executive order to do a cost-benefit analysis of switching at least part of the state s vehicle fleet from gasoline and diesel to some sort of natural gas-fueled vehicles The more acute and meaningful demand-side impact of vehicle conversion will occur with the buildout of LNG truck fueling stations and adoption by heavy trucking. LNG fueling for those applications allows the vehicles to store more fuel on board with less tank weight than with CNG