US Securities Industry Ten Years After. Brad Hintz October 2, 2018

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1 US Securities Industry Ten Years After. Brad Hintz October 2, 2018

2 Stock-trading desks at big banks have been enjoying their best year in a decade. - WSJ Wealth & Investment Management booked a 2017 Return on Equity of 21% - Wells Fargo. I am pleased first of all that we had two consecutive quarters where we reached a return on tangible equity above 15%," - CEO UBS We expect 2018 revenues to be higher by +8% on average. This will be driven by strength in equity trading, investment banking, and rate-based revenues. Merrill Lynch Research Jefferies Group LLC's second quarter results were strong. - JEF 8-K. Overall U.S. banking industry earned a record $48.3 billion during the second quarter, Well above the pre-crisis high of $38 billion. - CNN Big commercial banks are expected to post a stellar quarter in terms of profits.

3 US Securities Industry - Net Revenue. Source: SIFMA Database

4 US Securities Industry - Expense and Revenue Trends. 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% Net Revenue Compensation Other Expense Source; SIFMA Database.

5 Compensation and Headcount. Compensation to Net Rev. Front Office Headcount Source: SIFMA Database. Source: SIFMA Database.

6 Source; SIFMA Database. Broker Dealer Leverage has Declined.

7 Source: SIFMA Database. US Securities Industry Total Assets.

8 G-SIB Basel III Capital has Improved. Source: Moody s.

9 The Capital Base has Strengthened. Source: Moody s. 10/15/2018 9

10 Liquidity Improvement. Source: Moody s 10/15/

11 Industry CDS Spread. Source: Bloomberg

12 Challenges

13 Revenue Yield on Global Financial Assets E 2017E CAGR Rev. of Top 10 Banks from Coalition ($Bln) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ % Global Financial Assets ($Tln) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ % Yld. on Global Financial Asset 0.075% 0.050% 0.067% 0.072% 0.061% 0.065% 0.059% 0.056% 0.053% 0.051% 0.047% 0.080% 0.070% 0.060% 0.050% 0.040% 0.030% 0.020% 0.010% 0.000% E 2017E 10/15/2018 Source; Data from McKinsey Deutsche Bank Research, World Bank and Coalition. Hintz Computation. 13

14 Global Net Revenues from Capital Markets. Source: Coalition. 10/15/

15 Few US Banks Achieve Satisfactory ROEs. Cost of Equity WFC GS MS BAC C JPM % 12.7% 10.2% 0.1% 1.8% 4.1% 11.0% % 13.4% 10.4% 4.6% 4.9% 7.0% 8.6% % 13.0% 10.5% 5.1% 2.0% 3.5% 9.8% % 12.1% 7.2% 8.4% 6.4% 8.0% 10.2% % 11.2% 5.1% 7.9% 6.8% -3.2% 9.6% % 10.5% 8.5% 8.0% 6.8% 6.6% 9.8% Source: Mergent Online (Univ of Arizona Library), Hintz CAPM Computation.

16 Global Capital Markets Banks ROE and Cost of Equity.. Source: Data Moody s and Mergent (Univ of Arizona Library). 9/30/

17 US Securities Industry - ROE. Source: SIFMA Database. 10/15/

18 Margins and Capital.

19 Capital Markets Margins. A study of 15 broker dealers found that one-third had over 25% of their cost base allocated to corporate overhead. Industry Segment Margins Calculated Margins Regulatory Disclosure FICC Trading 37.2% 24.9% Equity Trading 28.2% 13.8% Investment Bnk. 31.4% 25.0% Filings show this margin. Total 33.3% 21.9% 15.2% Source: Coalition, SIFMA, Sanford Bernstein and Hintz. Large banks claim these margins. Statistics support these margins. 10/15/

20 Capital Markets Pre Tax Profit Margins. Calculated Industry Margins. 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Mergers & Acquisitions Equity Underwriting Trading margins are improving Debt Underwriting FICC Trading Equity Trading Wealth Management Asset Management These margin estimates were determined by multiple regression of US security industry pretax earnings versus six revenue sources over period Sources: SIFMA Database, Sanford Bernstein and Hintz.

21 Segment Equity Usage. $200,000.0 $180,000.0 US Securities Industry Equity Capital Employed Based on Asset Usage of Business Segments. $160,000.0 $140,000.0 $120,000.0 $100,000.0 $80,000.0 $60,000.0 $40,000.0 $20,000.0 $0.0 Fixed Income Equity Wealth Mgnt Other Source: SIFMA Database 10/15/

22 Equity Capital Employed. But FICC is shrinking its capital use Sources: SIFMA and Large Bank 10Ks.

23 Wealth Management.

24 Wealth Management Wealth Mgt. Client Assets. Wealth Mgt. Net Revenues. $30.00 $80,000 $25.00 Wirehouse Discount Other $70,000 $60,000 $20.00 $50,000 $15.00 $40,000 $10.00 $30,000 $20,000 $5.00 Source; Aite Group. $10,000 Source; SIFMA Database $ $ /16/

25 Wealth Management Revenue Mix Change. Big 3 Wirehouse Net Rev. Big 3 Wirehouse PT Margin. $60,000 $50,000 28% 26% 24% Regional BDs $40,000 22% $30,000 20% 18% $20,000 $10,000 Net Int Other 16% 14% 12% $ % Source: Company Disclosure. Source: Company Disclosure. 10/16/

26 Investment Banking.

27 Domestic Investment Banking Net Revenues. US investment banking has rebounded with the US economy. Source; SIFMA Database and LOB analysis.

28 Net Revenues ($Bln.) Global Investment Banking Revenue Global Investment banking revenues growth have been slower in Europe and Asia. Source: Coalition.

29 The Trading Businesses.

30 $, millions Domestic Fixed Income Net Revenues. Source; SIFMA DataBase, Company Disclosure and Factiva

31 Reduction of Capital Intensive Assets. Illiquidity risk? 10/15/2018 Source; SIFMA DataBase and LOB analysis. 31

32 Customer Financing. Illiquidity risk? 10/15/2018 Source; SIFMA DataBase 32

33 Fixed Income ROE With and Without Underwriting Revenue. Improving Performance Source; SIFMA DataBase and LOB analysis.

34 $ Millions Domestic Institutional Equities Net Revenues. Source: SIFMA DataBase and LOB analysis

35 Cents Per Share Institutional Equities Blended Commission Rate. $ $ $ $ The margin decline in equity trading predates the 2008 financial crisis $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Source: MSIED, CSFB, Sanford Bernstein and Factiva.

36 Source; SIFMA Equity Trade Volumes Daily Avg., Mils. of Shares.

37 Institutional Equity ROE- With and Without Underwriting. Improving Performance Source; SIFMA database, company disclosure and LOB analysis

38 The Lay of the Land. Global GDP and Wealth is Growing. Acceptable Returns on Capital. Wealth Management. Investment Banking. Asset Management. Capital and Liquidity. Strong Capital Ratios. Improved Liquidity. Regulation is Barrier to Entry. Strong Internal Expense Control. Decline in Cross Border Financial Flows. Below Cost of Equity Returns. Fixed Income. Equity Sales and Trading. Revenue Shift from Front Office to CCP, Custodians and Exchanges. Legacy Technology Systems. Institutional Inertia Limits New Industry Utilities and Outsourcing. 38

39 Institutional Investor View. Institutional Investors are still not optimistic about the industry. A majority believe that the large banks will be unable to beat their cost of capital in next five years. Investors believe that bank regulation will continue to tighten around the globe and that new technologies will disrupt the banking, wealth management and capital market. Investors recognize that the banks have cut bank expenses and reduced headcount. Low ROE is evidence that the industry s efforts have been insufficient. Investors expect the number of bulge bracket banks and universal banks will decline in the next five years. Source: Survey by Broadridge.