Goldman Sachs Presentation to Bank of America Merrill Lynch Future of Financials Conference

Transcription

1 Goldman Sachs Presentation to Bank of America Merrill Lynch Future of Financials Conference R. Martin Chavez Chief Financial Officer November 4, 207

2 Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Statements Today s presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements are not historical facts, but instead represent only the Firm s beliefs regarding future events, many of which, by their nature, are inherently uncertain and outside of the Firm s control. Forward-looking statements include statements about potential revenue and growth opportunities. It is possible that the Firm s actual results, including the incremental revenues, if any, from such opportunities, and financial condition, may differ, possibly materially, from the anticipated results, financial condition and incremental revenues indicated in these forward-looking statements. For a discussion of some of the risks and important factors that could affect the Firm s future results and financial condition, see Risk Factors in our Annual Report on Form 0-K for the year ended December 3, 206. You should also read the forward-looking disclaimers in our Form 0-Q for the period ended September 30, 207, particularly as it relates to capital and leverage ratios, and information on the calculation of non-gaap financial measures that is posted on the Investor Relations portion of our website: Statements about our revenue and growth opportunities are subject to the risk that the Firm s businesses may be unable to generate additional incremental revenues or take advantage of growth opportunities. The statements in the presentation are current only as of its date, November 4,

3 Current State of our Franchise 207YTD in Review Net Revenues Pre-Tax Margin Diluted EPS 2 $22.4bn +$.8bn $24.2bn +230bps 30.8% 33.% +26% $.24 $ YTD BVPS 3 207YTD 206YTD 207YTD Annualized ROE 2 $ % +60bps $ % 0.3% 206YTD 207YTD 206YTD 207YTD 206YTD 207YTD Strong performance shows resilience of the business and operating leverage of the franchise YTD through September YTD included a $496mm reduction to provision for taxes as a result of the Firm s adoption of the share-based accounting standard, resulting in an increase to diluted EPS of $.20 and to annualized ROE of 0.9% 3 Book value per share (BVPS) 3

4 Current State of the Franchise 207YTD Net Revenue Mix Diversified mix of businesses with majority of net revenues from fee-based or more recurring sources Investment Management 9% Investing & Lending 20% Equities 22% Investment Banking 2% FICC Client Execution 8% I&L: Debt 2 excl. NII % Equities Client Execution 8% I&L: Equity Securities 4% FICC Client Execution 8% Investment Banking 2% Investment Management 9% EQ: Commissions & Fees 9% I&L: Debt NII 5% 2 ~60% from fee-based or morerecurring revenues EQ: Securities Services 5% YTD through September 30 2 Net Interest Income 4

5 Cost and Capital Management Driving Shareholder Value Key Drivers of Long-Term Shareholder Value Strong Return on Equity + Book Value per Share Growth Optimize Drivers of Shareholder Value Allocate Capital Operate Efficiently Dynamically shift allocations to maximize returns Defend returns in challenged revenue environments Maintain strong capital position to protect long-term franchise Deliver operating leverage in stronger revenue environments Return excess to shareholders Attract and retain top talent Invest for future growth Invest for future growth 5

6 Dynamic Capital Allocation Maintaining leadership in core competencies while reallocating capital to capture expanding opportunity set Adapt Market Making Franchise 3Q7 vs. 2Q3 Meet Client Demand +$7bn Increase Allocation to Lending 3Q7 vs. 4Q3 ~(5)% Optimize vs. Capital Constraints +$2bn +$bn ~(50)% FICC Market/Credit RWAs ICS Balance Sheet Maximize Benefit of Deposit Funding Corporate Loans Loans backed by Real Estate Loans to PWM 9.2% 4Q3 Strengthening Capital Ratios 2 3.0% 3Q7 In addition to our U.S. GAAP balance sheet, we prepare a balance sheet that generally allocates assets to our businesses, including ICS, which is a non-gaap presentation. See our Form 0-Q for the period ended September 30, 207 for more information about this non-gaap presentation. RWAs calculated on a fully phased-in basis under the Basel III advanced approach based on the Federal Reserve Board s final rule. 2 Common Equity Tier ratio calculated from 4Q3 to 3Q7 on a fully phased-in basis under the standardized approach based on the Federal Reserve Board s final rule 6

7 Disciplined Capital Return Payout Ratios Average P/B of buybacks:.0x 02% 03% 93% 96% 76% 8% GS Avg: 92% U.S. Peer Avg: 49% ~$38bn Total capital return from 202-3Q7 (buybacks + dividends) 393.7mm Shares at 3Q7 lowest ever YTD Benefits of Share Repurchases to Key 207YTD Metrics,3 Book Value per Share +$.78 Earnings per Share +44% Return on Equity +270bps Capital return amount includes FY202 through 3Q7. 2 GS basic shares includes common shares outstanding and restricted stock units granted to employees with no future service requirements. 3 Adjusts reported common shareholders equity, average common shareholders equity, and basic and diluted shares to exclude the impact of share buybacks from FY202 to 3Q7. Common shareholders equity and average common shareholders equity include dividends that could have been paid on these additional shares. Assumes no change to reported net earnings applicable to common shareholders 7

8 Disciplined Expense Control Track Record Positions for Operating Leverage Change in Headcount: 3Q7 vs. 20YE Salt Lake City: ~,400 Irving/Dallas: ~400 Warsaw: ~500 Bengaluru: ~,900 New York, New Jersey, London, Tokyo, and Hong Kong: Headcount down ~800 since 20YE Committed to Delivering Operating Leverage ~30% of global headcount in strategic locations 2 of 4 largest offices are strategic locations ~$2.8bn 920bps in announced and completed initiatives reduction in average annual compensation ratio vs Comprised of $.9bn run-rate savings completed in and $0.9bn run-rate savings completed in Ratio of firmwide compensation and benefits expense to net revenues 8

9 Executing on Strategic Priorities Adapting Franchise to Drive Shareholder Value Delivering on a variety of strategic initiatives from a position of strength Debt Underwriting League Table Rank Assets Under Supervision (3Q7 vs. 4Q2) +32% Revenues #7 #4 3Q7TTM vs YTD ~$500 billion ~50% $.46 trillion Debt I&L Net Interest Income Asset Manager Sales Credits (206 vs. 202) 2.5x ~$.5bn +32% ~$600mm 202 3Q7TTM GS -2% Industry Source: Oliver Wyman 9

10 Investing in our Franchise Opportunities for growth Estimated Year 3 Net Revenue Opportunity FICC opportunity $.0bn+ Firmwide lending and financing efforts Marcus loan and deposit platform $.0bn+ PWM lending and GS Select $500mm+ Institutional lending and financing $500mm+ $2.0bn+ Investment Banking coverage strategy $0.5bn+ Investment Management $.0bn+ Equities clients coverage strategy Total firmwide net revenue growth opportunity $0.5bn+ $5.0bn+ Note: This presentation is intended only to reflect potential growth opportunities that the Firm believes may permit its businesses to generate additional incremental revenues. It does not provide earnings guidance or predict/forecast future activity levels, market share, revenues, pre-tax earnings or ROE. Included in our I&L segment 0

11 Forward Growth Strategy Framework for Assessing Whitespace Opportunities What Makes Us Well-Positioned Addressing client needs Better value and service Significant demand 2 Superior product Large addressable market Technology trends Leveraging GS competitive advantages Ability to attract and retain talent Clientfocused Risk management Scale of delivery Advice/structuring Technology Balance sheet capacity Adaptability Risk management culture 3 Accretive to shareholders Strong risk-adjusted returns through the cycle High confidence in execution Identifying actionable opportunities to benefit clients and drive accretive returns

12 Evaluating Growth Initiatives Key Opportunities Clear Client Need Competitive Advantage Accretive to Shareholders Marcus Consumer Lending $ bn Unsecured consumer loans to borrowers in target credit profile Technology Risk Management No physical branches No cannibalization Leverage bal. sheet / deposits Mid- to high-teens through-the-cycle ROE at scale Marcus Deposit Platform ~$2.5tn Retail savings, money market, and time deposits 2 Technology No physical branches No cannibalization Diversifies funding at discount to firmwide cost GS Select $2-3tn Estimated eligible collateral at RIAs and independent brokers 3 Technology No channel conflict Leverage bal. sheet / deposits Over-collateralized lending at attractive risk-adjusted returns Equities Clients Coverage Strategy ~$tn AUM at quant funds 4 Deep markets and operational risk management expertise High incremental margin given franchise scale Consumer lending addressable market per TransUnion and GS estimates. 2 Deposit addressable market per FDIC, company filings and GS estimates. 3 Registered Investment Advisor and Independent Broker eligible AUS collateral per Company filings and GS estimates. 4 Quantitative strategies AUM per Hedge Fund Research 2

13 Marcus Lending Addressing a Clear Consumer Need Attractive opportunity in a large market where modest share can yield meaningful business Total Credit Card and Unsecured Consumer Loans Interest-Earning Balances Potential Addressable Market $950bn $570bn $ bn Card Transactor/ Promotional Balances ~40% Interest- Earning Balances ~60% Outside Target Credit Profile ~60% Within Target Credit Profile ~40% GS 3-Year Consumer Lending Opportunity: $3bn Potential Market Share: Total Consumer Lending Potential Market Share: Addressable Market ~% ~6% Source: TransUnion Industry Insights Report: Quarterly Overview of Consumer Credit Trends, Second Quarter 207 Reflects ~$bn of loans originated as of June 30, 207 plus estimated 3-year consumer loan growth opportunity 3

14 Marcus Lending Addressing a Clear Consumer Need Key Pillars Value Transparency Customizable Simplicity Features Banks Fin Tech Lenders Lower interest rate than credit cards No origination fees Payment flexibility for on-time payers No late fees No unsuccessful payment fees Choose monthly payment amount upfront Select payment date upfront and change it Automated online application Simple language to explain product Some Some Some Some We co-created our personal loan product alongside the consumer Some Some 4

15 Marcus Lending Leveraging a Core GS Competency: Risk Management Risk Focus Permeates Business Product Design & Customer Focus Product and design experience attract quality customers Data leveraged to better understand customers Proprietary decision model Dynamic Credit Risk Platform Online Applications from Customers Dynamic Pricing Continually refine risk-based pricing across >50 distinct segments Re-Underwriting Through Customer Lifecycle Real-time monitoring of individual and portfolio data to evaluate risk and adapt framework for future credit decisions Issued Loans Tech Architecture Allows seamless integration of data sources and adjustments to algorithm Business model focused on risk-adjusted returns 5

16 Marcus Lending Leveraging a Core GS Competency: Scale and Technology GS Advantages Scalable Customer Benefits Interactions across channels connected in one database Nimble Highly-Automated Platform No Legacy Products or Infrastructure Customer Experience Agile Development and Adaptation Quickly add new features, products, and services Meeting unmet consumer needs Unique features including payment deferral Customer feedback onboarded in timely fashion Consumer Footprint 6

17 Marcus Lending Accretive to Shareholders Key Portfolio Highlights Loan Amount Mix ($ Balance),2 $.96bn originations ~33,000 loans ~4 years avg. tenor ~2% avg. APR 0K-5K 24% 5K-0K 8% 5K-20K 22% 25K-30K 25% 20K-25K 2% Avg. Loan Amount ~$5K Net Interest Margin Credit Losses Operating Expenses Pre-Tax ROA Illustrative Industry Through-the-Cycle Economics 3 ~0% ~4% ~2.5% ~3.5% Mid- to High-teens ROE As of November 9, 207 life to date 2 Represents aggregate dollar amount of loans in each size band 3 Based on competitor public disclosure and sell-side research of personal loans at scale. Numbers expressed as a percentage of loans 7

18 Summary of YTD Firmwide Performance and Growth Initiatives Strong YTD performance and growth initiatives position the firm for further return expansion Revenue Growth Pre-tax Earnings Growth ROE Expansion 207YTD +$.8bn YoY +$.bn YoY +60bps YoY Estimated Impact of 3-Year Growth Initiatives $5bn+ net revenue opportunity $2.5bn+ incremental pre-tax income 50bps+ ROE expansion 2 ROE 0.3% 30%+ marginal ROE 2 Note: This presentation is intended only to reflect potential growth opportunities that the Firm believes may permit its businesses to generate additional incremental revenues. It does not provide earnings guidance or predict/forecast future activity levels, market share, revenues, pre-tax earnings or ROE. YTD through September Assumes pre-tax earnings of $2.5 billion, taxed at our marginal rate, and estimated incremental $5bn attributed equity 8

19 Goldman Sachs Presentation to Bank of America Merrill Lynch Future of Financials Conference R. Martin Chavez Chief Financial Officer November 4, 207