Plan-Making and Implementation AICP Exam Review

Transcription

1 Plan-Making and Implementation AICP Exam Review Gary A. Cornell, FAICP

2 Outline of AICP Exam Content Visioning and goal setting Quantitative and qualitative research methods Collecting, analyzing, and reporting data and information Demographics and economics Natural and built environment Land use and development regulations Application of legal principles Environmental analysis Growth management techniques Budgets and financing options GIS/ spatial analysis and Information systems Policy analysis and decision making Development plan and project review Program evaluation Communication techniques Intergovernmental relationships Stakeholder relationships Project and program management

3 Traditional Approach to Community Goals A Profitable Project Producer/Builder Consumer/ Residents Less time in the car! Clean Water, Healthy Air! No New Taxes! Other/ Special Interests Government/ Community

4 Collaboration Flexible Zoning Mixed-Use Community Focus on Activity Centers Walkable Community Producer /Builder Consumer/ Residents Other/ Special Interests Government/ Community

5 What is Visioning? APA Says Vision is the overall image in words that describes what the local government wants to be and how it wants to look at some point in the future, and that has been formulated with the involvement of citizens. From American Planning Association, Growing Smart Legislative Guide Book, Model Statutes for Planning and the Management of Change, 2002, p 7-25

6 Visioning is here to stay A Vision Describes shared desires Reflects highest standards Includes multiple perspectives Emphasizes community uniqueness Depends on commitment of many to achieve Provides a springboard for action From The Civic Index, National Civic League,1999, pp

7 Visioning should reflect Clear sense of past Positive thinking Big picture Community values Points of pride Visual descriptions (layman s language) Long time frame Aspirations Based in part on The Community Visioning & Strategic Planning Handbook, NCL, 2000, pp

8 Possible, Probable and Preferred Futures Outcome Possible Preferred Probable Time Glenn Heimstra

9 Visioning Tools Visioning Charrettes Website Keypad Voting Social Networks Photo Contest Strategic Planning Workshops

10 Visioning Initiates the Planning Process Visioning Comprehensive Plan = Overall Framework Inventory and Assessment of Existing Conditions Goals, Objectives, and Policies Land Use Plan Implementation Strategies Short-Term Work Program P u b l i c Functional Plans Transportation Water Supply Wastewater Treatment Solid Waste Management Stormwater Management Parks And Recreation Public Safety Capital Improvements Program Financial Capacity Analysis Capital Budget Implementing Ordinances Zoning Ordinances Development Regulations Adequate Public Facilities Building Codes Fees Administration Plan Reviews Permits Building Codes I n v o l v e m e n t

11 Role of Comprehensive Plan Provides a framework for Specific plans Natural resource protection Public improvement plans Private investment decisions Manages spillover impacts Public improvements Natural resource mgmt. Property Values Provides predictability Provides a basis for coordination/ cooperation

12 Implementing Your Plan Types of Implementation Strategies: Are you Rich, Strong or Beautiful? Capital Expenditures Regulation? Luck?

13 Implementing Your Plan Growth management through Expenditures Capital Improvements: Transportation Water, Sewer Public Safety, Libraries, Schools Parks, Hospitals Stormwater Management Financial Capacity

14 Capital Improvements Program Rolling 5 year list of capital improvement projects Current year moves into the annual budget and new projects are added in the out year Annual program of projects and revenues: Project list Responsible department Priority/ project ranking criteria Cost of land, engineering, construction Multi-year phasing, funds allocation Sources of capital funds

15 Implementing Your Plan Capital Finance Tools Pay as you go vs. Capital debt General Obligation Bonds Revenue Bonds Taxation Property Tax Sales Tax Tax Abatement Special Tax Districts Fees Impact Fees Tolls/ User charges Federal and State Grants Special Tax Districts and Tax Increment Finance

16 Budgets and Financing Strategies Level of service (LOS) standards. Concurrency enforces (LOS) standards Life cycle costing (capital, operating, maintenance) Planning Programming Budgeting Systems (PPBS) performance-based budgeting. Zero based budgeting (ZBB) from the ground up each year. Generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) Cutback management (across the board or triage)

17 Growth Management by Partnerships Forms of local governments, Council-Manager plan, Strong Mayor General purpose vs. special purpose local governments (e.g., Authorities, Special Districts, Community Development Corporations) Intergovernmental grants, including block and categorical. Regional forms of governance, Councils of Government, Metropolitan Planning Organizations Non-Government Organizations (Human Service and Economic Development Agencies, etc.)

18 Communication Techniques Public Meetings/ Speakers Bureau Effective public presentations - Powerpoint/ GIS - Graphic presentation of data (3-D charts) - 3-D Visualization, V.I.Codes Newsletters, Public TV channels, Video , websites, Face Book, blogsites Public access to Public Information, Notices, Agendas, Minutes Sunshine laws and public records.

19 Growth Management by Regulations What are we talking about? What s going to happen here?

20 Zoning & Land Development Regulations The DNA of your Community Criteria Comprehensiveness Plan Consistency Administration/ Enforcement Staffing Level

21 Zoning & Land Development Regulations Consistency with Goals of Comprehensive Plan 1. Mix and arrangement of Land Uses 2. Density of Development 3. Redevelopment vs. New Development

22 Zoning & Land Development Regulations Consistency with Goals of Comprehensive Plan 3. Location of Development Comprehensive Plan Future Land Use Map Natural Resource Protection Coordination of Land Use and Public Facilities

23 Zoning & Land Development Regulations Consistency with Goals of Comprehensive Plan 4. Quality of New Development 5. Timing of Development 6. Fiscal Considerations for a Healthy Tax Base

24 Zoning & Land Development Regulations Environmental Issues Declining air and water quality Loss of farmland and green space Increasing risks from natural hazards Overburdened natural resources Equity- Environmental Justice Sustainability Climate Change

25 Natural Resource Protection State and Federal Regulations Clean Water Act Clean Air Act Endangered Species Act NEPA and little NEPAs RCRA Coastal Zone Management Flood Insurance (FIRM) Environmental Permits Federal Wetlands NPDES (Point/ Non-Point/TMDL) Soil Erosion and Sedimentation Controls Stream buffers

26 Environmental Impact Assessment NEPA - National Environmental Policy Act applies to federal projects Analytic process that determines the impact that a project or action will have on various environmental systems (Alternatives) May or may not require that those impacts be mitigated FONSI Finding of No Significant Impactshorter process- NEPA process satisfied CATEX Categorical Exclusion small project no impact study warranted

27 Zoning & Land Development Regulations Legal Issues State/ Federal Constitution and Statutory Authority State Enabling Act Dillon Rule/ Home Rule Police Powers Takings Balancing Test Equal Protection Due Process Zoning Procedures Act Comprehensive Plan Consistency

28 Zoning & Land Development Regulations Financial Implications Land Use Controls Affect the Cost of Development and the Value of Land 100% to the City to property developer to future consumers to Taxpayers 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Population County Budget Increase % Change in Population in population % Change vs. county in City Budget budget

29 Zoning & Land Development Regulations Political Issues The Actors City Council Planning Commission Board of Appeals Property Owners Developers and Attorneys Neighbors and Neighborhoods

30 Zoning & Land Development Regulations Role of Planning Commission Appointed by City Council or County BOC Recommending Body Public Hearings and fact-finding Comprehensive Plan Zoning text and map amendments Conditional Use Permits

31 Zoning & Land Development Regulations Role of Board of Appeals Appointed by City Council or BOC Quasi-Judicial Body Public Hearings and fact-finding Appeals of Administrative Decisions Variances and hardships Special exceptions

32 Zoning & Land Development Regulations Zoning Basics What s in a Zoning Ordinance? 1. Zoning Map 2. Zoning Districts Uses Density/ lot area Lot dimensions Setbacks and open space Lot coverage and impervious surface Building height limits House size

33 Land Development Regulations Zoning Basics What s in a Zoning Ordinance? 3. Standards for Special Uses 4. Buffers 5. Parking 6. Sign Controls 7. Design Guidelines 8. Administrative procedures

34 Zoning & Land Development Regulations Development Process 1. Comprehensive Plan Consistency 2. Zoning Conformance or Rezoning 3. Subdivision / Plat Review 4. Recording/ Lot Sale 5. Site Engineering/ Land Development Review/ Permitting 6. Installation /Approval of Public Improvements/ Inspections 7. Building Codes/ Plan Review 8. Building Permits/ Inspection 9. Certificate of Occupancy

35 Zoning & Land Development Regulations Role of Development (Subdivision) Regulations 1. Lot Design Standards 2. Public Improvements Standards 3. Environmental Standards 4. Permits and Inspections 5. Administrative Procedures

36 Development Plan & Project Review Development processes/ Terminology Rezoning, Special Use Permits, Subdivision, Variances, Boards of Adjustment, Special Use/Special Exception, Conditional Approvals, Appeals, Design Review, Site plan review, Development Review, Historic Preservation review. Discretionary (legislative) vs. ministerial actions Site plan review process Consistency with zoning, special use/ conditions of zoning, lot size, frontage, setbacks, parking, signs Consistency with development requirements- subdivision, public facilities and dedication, drainage, tree protection, ROW, grading, engineering, architectural standards Development terms: PUDs, development agreements, subdivision plats (preliminary, final); performance bonds, maintenance bonds

37 Euclidean Zoning: Problem Statement Traditional zoning with use-separated districts: Emphasizes use separation Encourages auto-oriented development Is not pedestrian-oriented Does not allow mixed-use development Forces homogeneous development In-flexible prescriptive standards Weak tools for quality of design

38 Innovative Land Use Controls Planned Unit Development Open Space Conservation Subdivisions Smart Growth Toolkit: www:atlantaregional.com

39 Mixed-Use Development

40 What is Mixed-Use Development? Combination of Complementary uses Horizontal or Vertically Integrated Significant proportions of each use Internally-connected Externally-connected

41 Benefits of Mixed Use Development Increases convenience Provides alternatives to car trips More efficient use of land (no buffers) More efficient use of public infrastructure Reduced traffic demand Shared parking

42 Form-Based and Smart Codes The Transect

43 A. Descriptive statistics Types of data Four types of measurement scales Nominal (classifications- males vs. females) Ordinal (rank from highest to lowest) Interval (ages: 0-4, 5-9, 10-14) Ratio (continuous data supports exact computations - division and multiplication) Primary data vs. secondary data Enumeration or census vs. sample

44 Measures of central tendency Mean Sum of items / Count of items Median Sort items high to low Select middle item, or average of two middle items Mode What value occurs most often? Bimodal distributions

45 Measures of dispersion Range High value minus low value Variance Subtract the mean from each value Square each difference Sum the squares of the differences and divide by the number of cases Standard deviation Take the square root of the variance Can relate to original units

46 B. Inferential statistics What can we infer about a population given a sample size and a sample statistic? A population parameter is a (usually unknown) summary measure of a characteristic of a full population A sample statistic is a corresponding summary measure of a sample characteristic (usually known or calculated).

47 Let's say these are the ages of the people now in this room. Case Age Case Age Case Age Case Age Case Age

48 Frequency Distribution Number of cases Age

49 Basic calculations: The range is = 19 The mean is 2945 / 100 = The variance is = 7.55 (difference) 7.55 squared is (difference squared) Sum all 100 differences squared and divide by 100 = The standard deviation is the square root of the variance = 5.56 The cases are bimodal. 11 people are 22 and another 11 are 29.

50 Now, let s take a random sample of 10 cases Cases: 28, 70, 11, 81, 54, 66, 5, 6, 63, 37 Ages: 34, 26, 29, 37, 21, 24, 33, 28, 32, 28 The mean of these 10 cases is but our population mean was Inferential statistics help us understand how reliably a (known) sample statistic represents a (usually unknown) population parameter.

51 Now let s take another sample of 10, and another, and another, and If we took many, many samples of 10, most would have means near 29.45, with a few much lower and a few much higher. Over many samples, the mean of all the samples would come closer and closer to the population mean. This is the central limit theorem. We can graph a frequency distribution of the mean over many samples, which is called a sampling distribution.

52 Number of samples Sample Mean Samples of size 20 If we took samples of 20, the curve would be narrower and higher. More samples would be closer to the real population mean, and fewer would be much lower or much higher

53 Sample size and confidence limits The standard error of the mean depends on the standard deviation of the population and the size of the sample. The smaller the SD of the population, the smaller the error. The larger the sample size, the smaller the error. Choosing an adequate sample size depends on the two factors listed above. You may want to be 90% certain that the mean of the sample will be within one year of the mean of the population.

54 C. Forecasting methods Intuitive methods Delphi Scenario writing Extrapolation methods Assume future change of same amount added or subtracted per year (or decade) Assume future change of same percentage increase (or decrease) per year (or decade, or any period)

55 Theoretical methods Dependent variable or y variable: the variable being predicted Independent variable(s) or x variable(s): the variable(s) used to predict Bivariate regression (one x variable) Multiple regression (two or more x variables)

56 Bivariate regression Assumes a straight line can be used to describe the relationship between the independent (x) variable and the dependent (y) variable. y = a + b*x a is the line s y intercept b is the line s slope R 2 measures how well the line fits the data and ranges from 0.0 to 1.0

57 Bivariate regression We want to predict the number of autos per household. This is our data for 10 census tracts. Income is listed in thousands of dollars. Tract Avg HH Avg # of Income Autos per HH

58 Multiple regression uses more than one x variable y (house sale price) = x 1 * Square footage + x 2 * Number of bedrooms + x 3 * Number of bathrooms + x 4 * Accessibility to employment + x 5 * Location in historic district When an x coefficient is positive, higher values of x lead to higher values of y; when negative, lower

59 D. Population analysis and projection An estimate is an indirect measure of a present or past condition that can not be directly measured. A projection (or prediction) is a conditional statement about the future. A forecast is a judgmental statement of what the analyst believes to be the most likely future.

60 Non-component projection methods Extrapolation with graphs Time series regression, with time (year) as the independent (x) variable Ratio methods comparing to similar areas Share methods using proportions of regional or state projections

61 Time series regression to project US population US Population y = x Population (Y) y = *x Predicted change in x for a one unit change in y Year (X) Each year, we add 2.02 million people.

62 Cohort component models We divide the population into cohorts by age (five years), sex, and race/ethnicity. Population change is subdivided into three components: births, deaths, migrants Calculate birth rates, survival rates, and migration rates for a recent period Extend those rates into the future, possibly adjusting them upward or downward Birth and death data is readily available; migration data is difficult, apart from Census years.

63 Migration notes Migration can be projected as a function of changes in employment. Net migration = Inmigration - outmigration Net migration can estimated by the residual method: 1990 population: 100, population: 120, to 2000 births: 5, to 2000 deaths 3,000 How many 1990 to 2000 inmigrants? (18,000)

64 E: Economic analysis Economic base theory Assumes two kinds of industry Basic or export: sells to customers outside the area of analysis Service or non-basic: sells to customers within the area Economic base multiplier Total employment / basic employment A multiplier of 4.0 says that 4 total jobs are created for every additional basic job

65 Location quotients LQs compare the local concentration of employment in an industry to the national employment in that industry LQ i = Local employment in industry I Total local employment in all industries National employment in industry I Total national employment in all industries

66 More on location quotients Alternate formula: LQ i = Local percent of employment in industry i National percent of employment in industry I Interpreting LQs If LQ i is greater than 1.0 we can assume an export or basic industry If LQ i is less than 1.0 we can assume we import some goods or services If LQ i = 1.0, the region produces just enough to serve the region, and no more

67 Shift share analysis Shift share analysis interprets changes in an industry s local employment (over a period of x years) in terms of three components: National share: how much would local industry employment have changed if it mirrored changes in total national employment Industry mix: how much additional would it have changed if it mirrored national industry employment Local shift: how many additional jobs did the local industry gain or lose, presumably due to local competitive advantage or disadvantage.

68 F. Project analysis and benefit cost analysis Many public projects have high initial costs, then produce benefits for many years. $1,000 of benefits in 10 years is less valuable than $1,000 of benefits this year, because we could invest today s $1,000 and earn 10 years worth of interest. Discounting reduces benefits (and costs) in future years to account for the time value of money.

69 Discounting and Net Present Value Annual benefits Initial construction cost Year 3 maintenance cost

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72 NPV Decision Criteria 1. If NPV is positive, we should undertake the project. 2. Benefit cost ratio = 17, / 16, = Begin with the projects with the highest BC ratios.

73 Questions? Comments?