Inflation. David Andolfatto

Transcription

1 Inflation David Andolfatto

2 Introduction We continue to assume an economy with a single asset Assume that the government can manage the supply of over time; i.e., = 1,where 0 is the gross rate of money creation 1 implies expanding money supply 1 implies contracting money supply New money created at date = ( 1) 1 = (1 1 )

3 How is money injected/withdrawn? The answer to this question generally matters (although, it is often neglected) In reality, the Fed (and most central banks) are restricted to use to purchase assets (primarily government bonds, but in some cases, also private securities) We cannot investigate asset swaps yet because we have only one asset For now, assume that the fiscal authority manages the economy s money supply (fiscal authority has the power to tax and purchase goods and services)

4 The government budget constraint Let denote government purchases and let denote net government tax revenue I allow the government to pay interest on money; let denote the gross nominal interest rate +( 1) 1 = +[ 1 ] Note that money is like a perpetual bond (has no maturity date)

5 Rearrange the expression above... " + 1 # = In what follows, assume that = 0 and that is a lump-sum tax administered on the old (if 0 then is a transfer) If = then is sufficient to finance interest on debt (so =0) If then 0 Sometimes the restriction 1 is imposed (zero lower bound)

6 Define = 1 A policy is a sequence { } =1 satisfying " # Ã = 1! In a stationary equilibrium, = (constant) In this case, a policy can be represented by a triplet ( ) satisfying " # = 1

7 Individual decisions A young person s budget constraints: + = +1 = or combining... + = +1 = +1 Π Π = Π

8 Equilibrium conditions Money demand function is characterized by usual tangency condition: Ã +1 Π +1 +1! = +1 Π +1 for all 1 (1) Market-clearing condition: = for all 1 (2) Government budget constraint: " = 1 # Ã! for all 1 (3)

9 Combine (2) and (3) to form and now combine with (1)... Ã = +1 Π +1 " # 1 " #! = +1 Π +1 Market-clearing condition implies... Combining... Ã Π +1 = " #! =

10 Which reduces to... ( +1 )= (4) +1 Condition (4) is a first-order difference equation in { } =1 We restrict attention to policies such that ( )=( ) and steadystates = ; condition (4) then reduces to ( ) = (5) Observation: Any policy (in this class of policies) that sets = will implement the Golden rule allocation

11 Note that the equilibrium (steady-state) inflation rate in this economy is given by Π = Definition: money is said to be superneutral if permanent changes in have no effect on real allocations contrast this with the definition of money neutrality Note that money is superneutral here if new money is injected by way of interest

12 The inefficiency of inflation Set =1and consider some 1 Because this is an endowment economy, inflation will have no effect on the real GDP It will, however, distort the allocation ( ) relative to the GR allocation But what are the welfare effectsofthispolicy(lump-sumtransfertothe old, financed by printing money)?

13 Let ( ) denote the GR allocation; it satisfies ( ) = +(1 ) = The competitive monetary equilibrium satisfies where (ˆ ˆ ) = ˆ +( )ˆ = ( )ˆ ˆ = [1 1] ˆ = [1 1] ( ˆ ) Substitute into budget constraint... ˆ +( )ˆ = ( )[1 1] ( ˆ )

14 and rearrange to derive ˆ +(1 )ˆ = That is, the competitive equilibrium lies on the resource constraint (and on the budget constraint) Now, since 1 it follows that ( )= (ˆ ˆ )= Conclusion: ˆ and ˆ and lower welfare (display on diagram)

15 Permanent vs temporary money injections Recall that a one-time to the initial old is neutral in this model the money supply is expected to increase once and forever, so pricelevel jumps up, but no permanent inflation On the other hand, an increase in implies { } the money supply is expected to increase in every period forever, leading to inflation (and a jump up in the price-level why?) I emphasize expected to make clear that population has to believe that the policy will be carried through

16 Does money cause inflation, or vice-versa? I have taken the traditional approach of assuming an exogenous money supply path But it may make more sense to think of government adopting a policy rule which dictates how the future money supply is to evolve in response to past, current, and/or expected economic variables Suppose, for example, it is policy to fully accommodate inflation (inflation expectations) Then pick an arbitrary Π and it will cause { } to adjust accordingly

17 The limits to seigniorage Seigniorage refers to the purchasing power a government is able to create by printing money also referred to as the inflation tax In most developed economies, seigniorage is small potatoes relatively more important for lesser developed economies Limits to seigniorage similar to the limits of any distortionary tax (people substitute out of taxed activity)

18 Financing government purchases Recall government budget constraint " + 1 # = Now set =1and =0 Define = and rewrite GBC as = " 1 1 # Assume that government simply consumes

19 Individual decision-making is unchanged, so determined by ( Π 1 +1 )=Π 1 +1 Market-clearing and stationarity gets the usual Π = ; define ˆ ( ) by ( ˆ ( )ˆ ) =( ) The properties of ˆ ( ) depend on the nature of preferences, but if substitution effect is strong, then ˆ is a decreasing function of (inflation) It follows that [1 1 ] ˆ ( ) is first increasing in then decreasing in (Laffer curve)

20 Let maximize [1 1 ] ˆ ( ) Note that 1 Maximum seigniorage revenue is given by [1 1 ]ˆ ( ) and feasibility requires [1 1 ]ˆ ( ) And for any such there generally exist two money growth (inflation) rates 1 satisfying =[1 1 ]ˆ ( )=[1 1 ]ˆ ( ) Allocation associated with high inflation rate is Pareto inferior

21 Currency substitution The limits to how much a government can extract by way of a distortionary tax depends on how easily individuals can escape the tax by substituting into other activities In the model above, individuals substitute out of the cash good ( ) into the non-cash good ( ) this affects the size of the tax base = In a model with multiple currencies (e.g., USD and Argentine peso), people may have an opportunity to substitute into competing currencies (unless prohibited by law, which is frequently the case)

22 Inflation and output Russell and Banerjee, JM 2008

23 Output and inflation appear to be positively correlated in the short-run, and negatively correlated in the long-run To explore the impact of inflation on output, we need a theory of output determination Assume that the young are endowed with time and that time can be used to produced output units of time produces units of output at disutility cost ( ) is a productivity parameter, is an increasing, strictly convex function

24 Let 0 ( ) denote the marginal disutility of labor The marginal product of labor is given by the parameter, Assume, for simplicity, that the young do not care about current consumption; preferences are = ( )+ ( +1 ) is a preference parameter and is increasing, concave, marginal utility of future consumption is 0 ( +1 )

25 Budget constraints... or, = +1 = = +1 = Π +1 Π +1 Plug into objective... max ( ( )+ Ã +1 1!) +1 Π +1 Π +1

26 Marginal cost/benefit calculation (first-order condition): 0 ( )= +1 Π +1 0 ( +1 ) We can simplify this considerable (with only some loss of generality) by assuming linear ( ) = so that 0 ( ) =1 In this case, employment is determined by 0 ( )= +1 Π +1 (6) Employment is increasing in and decreasing in Π

27 With determined by (6), demand for real money balances is = Real GDP is given by Imposing market-clearing and stationarity, we have 0 ( ) = An increase in the (long-run) money growth rate (inflation) leads to a lower level of employment and GDP