Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Denmark. Concept Note. Danida. Danish Embassy in Kabul. Afghanistan Growth and Employment programme

Transcription

1 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Denmark Danida Danish Embassy in Kabul Concept Note Afghanistan Growth and Employment programme July/August 2013 Concept Note - Afghanistan Growth and Employment FINAL - incl Annexes

2 Map of Afghanistan Exchange Rates Afghani (AFA) : United States Dollar (USD) = Afghani (AFA) : Danish Kroner (DKK) = 9.95 DKK : USD = i

3 Acronyms and Abbreviations: ADF AREDP AGE ANDS ARTF CARD-F CDC DAIL EDP EMD GoA MAIL MCN MISFA MOF MRRD NPP PRT TMAF Agricultural Development Fund Afghan Rural Enterprise Development Programme (Danida) Afghanistan Growth and Employment Programme Afghanistan National Development Strategy Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund Comprehensive Agriculture and Rural Development Facility Community Development Council District Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock Economic Development Plans (CARD-F) Enterprise and Market Development (component of the NPP-2) Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Ministry of Agriculture Irrigation and Livestock Ministry of Counter-Narcotics Microfinance Investment Support Facility of Afghanistan Ministry of Finance Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development National Priority Programme Provincial Reconstruction Team Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework Contact persons: Klaus Thorup (First Secretary, Embassy of Denmark, Kabul) Tamim Bedar (Programme Officer, Embassy of Denmark, Kabul) Annexes: I. Updated process action plan II. Assessment according to the ten budget support principles III. Gender Equality Rolling Plan IV. Climate change and Environmental Screening Note V. HRBA Screening Note Strategic questions to guide the discussion a) Given that the security situation in Afghanistan is so fragile, is the focus on private sector approaches to agricultural development and food security appropriate? b) In a conflict environment where not all areas are accessible, how will field implementation, monitoring and evaluation be ensured in insecure areas? c) How will subnational governance structures and service delivery be linked to the programme, including the provision of extension services? ii

4 Concept Note Afghanistan Growth and Employment August 2013 Introduction 1. For , the DKK 260 million Danida Afghanistan Growth and Employment (AGE) programme will support economic growth for rural Afghans with an emphasis on improving the livelihoods of farming communities and other rural people deriving their incomes from agricultural value chains. Designed on the basis of the Danish support to Livelihoods in Afghanistan, principally to economic growth in Helmand, and the accumulated experience from the international community s support to agriculture and rural development in Afghanistan, the programme will respond to and align with Danish and Afghan policies and strategies. These recognise agriculture and the private sector as being the primary drivers of sustainable growth and employment. The programme will focus on supporting agribusiness, including access to markets, inputs, storage, services and credit, as well as technical support to increasing outputs and improved employment of resources. Summary of conclusions regarding the envisaged support 2. The Afghanistan Growth and Employment is aligned with the Afghanistan National Development Strategy, the Danish Afghanistan Plan and Denmark s Right to a Better Life development strategy by supporting economic growth through improving employment and income opportunities for rural people. Support will be provided to agricultural production, market-focused enterprise development, and access to credit. The programme is part of the Danish commitment to the Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework (TMAF) and is aligned to the Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS). 3. At the Kabul Conference held in July 2010, the Afghan Government translated the priorities of the ANDS into 22 National Priority Programs or NPPs. NPPs reflect shorter and medium terms goals for different sectors and are supported by inter-ministerial cluster coordination. The Agriculture and Rural Development Cluster s priorities for the implementation of the ANDS are outlined in four NPPs for agriculture, water resources, infrastructure and local governance. The AGE programme will align with NPP-2, the National Comprehensive Agriculture Production and Market Development Program. The AGE programme will initially include support to two specific NPP-2 programmes and later to general financing of the NPP-2 programmes and policies. 4. The overall objective of the programme is to contribute to poverty reduction and stability by improving sustainable agriculture production and productivity and increasing onand off-farm enterprises, contributing to food security, inclusive economic growth and reduced dependency of subsistence farmers and labourers on narcotic crops. The immediate objective of the programme is to support economic growth and poppy reduction through improved employment and income opportunities for rural people by means of enterprise development, access to markets, inputs, services, storage and credit. 1

5 5. The programme covers three years, , and is budgeted at DKK 260 million. It is designed to be lean and focused in order to minimise transaction costs to Denmark and to the Government of Afghanistan while at the same time promoting accountability, participation, non-discrimination and transparency through the application of robust and well-established systems for planning, implementation, budgeting and reporting. 6. The programme consists of three main components. Denmark will co-fund two key agricultural programmes under the National Priority Programme for market-driven agricultural development (NPP-2), currently led by DFID and USAID. The third component is a planned trust fund for general funding of the NPP-2. a) Comprehensive Agricultural and Rural Development Facility (CARD-F). The DFIDled national programme seeks to increase licit employment and income opportunities through more efficient agricultural and rural enterprise markets and to combat opium production by creating commercially viable and sustainable alternatives for farmers to earn licit incomes. CARD-F works through supporting and developing value chains in identified sectors on provincial and district levels. The Danish contribution of DKK 73 million in 2014 and 15 would co-finance the next phase of the programme. b) Agricultural Development Fund (ADF). The fund has been established by USAID and is overseen by the Ministry of Agriculture Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL). It provides loans throughout the agricultural value chain through a broad range of partner intermediaries, including not only banks, but also non-bank channels such as farm stores, leasing companies, food processors, etc. The proposed Danish support of DKK 60 million in 2014 and 15 would allow an additional 7,400 loans to be made to farmers organisations, agribusiness, small and medium enterprises and traders. c) Joint-financing of the Government National Priority Programme 2 (NPP-2). It is foreseen that a multi-donor joint financing facility for the NPP-2, the national priority programme for market-driven agricultural development, will be established in late 2014 or Support will be on-budget and not earmarked, but with Denmark having particular interest in the implementation of the Enterprise and Market Development Component (EMD). A contribution of DKK 90 million is proposed. The support is planned for 2015 and 16 and since CARD-F and ADF are both part of the NPP-2, support for these programmes will indirectly continue in All in DKK million Year/Component Total Component 1: CARD-F Component 2: ADF Component 3: NPP-2 General Funding Conclusions from preparatory analyses justifying the envisaged support Key experiences from previous support 7. Denmark s support to the agricultural sector has most recently been focused in Helmand Province as part of the Provincial Reconstruction Team s (PRT) effort to develop a market driven private sector value-chain approach, including an extensive analysis of the agriculture and food sector by the Senior Danida Economic Growth Advisor. 8. As a pilot in 2013, Denmark has funded the establishment of CARD-F in Helmand. CARD-F has since prepared analysis of opportunities and successfully piloted market responsive approaches to high-value vegetable production and poultry egg production by 2

6 women. The positive experiences encourage the proposed future support to CARD-F. Funding has also been allocated to ADF in 2013 as a pilot. So far experiences are mainly derived from working with ADF (in collaboration with CARD-F) in Helmand and the experiences are good. 9. Denmark has been supporting agricultural and rural activities under the existing Livelihood programme for a number of years. Support to the Livelihood programme has included the National Solidarity Programme (NSP), which establishes Community Development Councils (CDCs), empower and builds their capacity, and provides block grants directly to them. NSP is now funded via the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF) through the Danida Governance Programme. 10. Support has also been provided to the Microfinance Investment Support Facility (MISFA). The programme was positively evaluated in 2012 and as a sign of the success of the programme it is now self-sustainable and funds previously provided ensure the continuing operation of the programme. 11. Other key national programmes such as the Afghan Rural Enterprise Development Programme (AREDP) have been funded and have been relatively successful. However, the AREDP will undergo a revision in the coming years to focus the programme and due to current low disbursement levels, funding for AREDP is not needed. 12. Some of the key points that has accrued by the above and has informed the choices made for this programme, are: a) Providing support to input and credit suppliers, farmers, processors and traders along prioritised existing licit value chains (e.g. wheat, fruits, nuts, vegetables, red meat, poultry and cotton) can generate employment, stimulate growth and leverage in private sector investment. b) Support should be directed at the needs of the sector and the private sector, namely access to markets, inputs, services, storage, and credit. The approach should be market-driven and focused while minimise subsidy levels to ensure future sustainability. c) Approaches need to be flexible, administratively light, market-based and focused on market opportunities with full stakeholder ownership at all levels. 13. Denmark s support to Afghanistan in the period 2001 to 2012 was the subject of an external evaluation study published in The study concluded that support was relevant to Danish and Afghan policies and that support to multi-donor projects have kept administrative costs low while meeting commitments under the Paris Declaration/Busan Global Partnership, New Deal and ANDS. None of the programmes that Denmark supports would be able to function without external financing and programmes are still very dependent on donor funding. Geographical coverage of the national programmes was uneven, particularly in the conflict-affected areas of the South and South-East. Further, Denmark should look for ways of supporting the provision of income generating programmes to the poorest. Strategic conclusions from the sector analysis 14. The programme responds to the Danish Afghanistan Plan to include a programme for economic growth and employment with an agricultural focus, and to Denmark s Peace and Stabilisation Policy The key drivers for improving rural 3

7 livelihoods, economic growth and employment in Afghanistan are found in agriculture and agribusiness and this is recognised in the Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS) as well as by the IMF, the World Bank and the donor community. Pursuing aid effectiveness by aligning with Government priorities and contributing to jointly financed programmes is a Danish priority in line with The Right to a Better Life, the Danida Programme Management Guidelines and Denmark s commitment to the TMAF. 15. The Afghan national strategy within the Agriculture and Rural Development (ARD) Cluster is captured within the National Priority Programmes (NPPs) which comprise NPP-1: Water and Natural Resource Management, NPP-2: Comprehensive Agriculture Production and Market Development Programme, NPP-3: Rural Access Programme; and NPP-4: Strengthening Local Institutions. Specifically NPP-2 is key to the development of the agricultural private sector and is explicitly focused on enabling growth and employment. Therefore NPP-2 forms the basis of the AGE Programme. 16. The decision to focus on an agriculture value chain development approach is also highly responsive to Denmark s Right to a Better Life Development Strategy with its focus on agriculture, food security, employment creation, and economic growth. The programme applies human rights based approaches in that the interventions it will support are inclusive, apply transparent and participatory planning, promote accountability through the rigorous monitoring and reporting systems, and generate opportunities for women s participation and marginalised groups. 17. The programme responds to the core themes of Danida s Green Growth Strategy with its focus on private sector approaches for agricultural development and food security, responding to market opportunities and optimising the use of resources for sustainable growth and development. The environmental impacts are expected to be neutral, and probably, as soils and water are more efficiently used for production, they will be positive. In terms of technology innovations for green growth, CARD-F s smartphone based Intelligent Service System for monitoring and evaluation is an example that is already being used. Others, such as off-grid renewable energy solutions to relieve constraints to agricultural production or business development could be supported later in the programme with unallocated funds. 18. The risk profile for the programme is high, reflecting: i) the fragile security situation and the potential for that to worsen as the International Security Assistance Forces withdraw in 2014; ii) the uncertainty about the outcomes of the upcoming elections in 2014; iii) that field operations and their monitoring is difficult; and, iv) that institutional capacities and service delivery are weak and corruption endemic. Budget support considerations 19. Sector budget support has been considered and is not assessed as a feasible option due to the lack of capacity and weak PFM in the relevant ministries, in particular MAIL. The response to the increased need for harmonisation, alignment and on-budget support is articulated in progressively funding on-budget through the Ministry of Finance and the use of trust funds. 20. Budget support is neither considered by other donors in the sector, nor by the relevant ministries at this point. Presently, focus among donors is on establishing trust fund arrangements and channelling funds through these while raising the level of discretionary funds available for the government. An Assessment of Public Financial Management in the 4

8 Education Sector was carried out in 2012 and included the above reservations of sector budget support, though the Ministry of Education is considered more capable than many other ministries in PFM. The study included an assessment of the five sector budget support principles. 21. Currently, CARD-F is not on-budget, but when MAIL s capacity allows and when general issues around budget execution are resolved, then CARD-F is expected to come onbudget. ADF is currently on-budget funded through the Ministry of Finance and operating as a fund. Multi-donor financing mechanisms have recently been established for both CARD-F and ADF. Component 3 will be on-budget joint financing by development partners, administered through a trust fund arrangement or similar. Preliminary overview of envisaged programme support Justification for the support % of Afghanistan s population is rural and around 50% of the labour force is directly involved in agriculture, or related activities. Agriculture accounts for 32% of the licit GDP. 70% of Afghans are reported as being food insecure. 36%, mostly rural, live in poverty. There are strong traditions of producing both staples (notably wheat) and also of high-value exports (e.g. dried fruit and nuts) but the war years have damaged the sector badly. Exports account for only 7% of trade and 61% of those are agricultural. Import of a wide range of food commodities has increased over time and there are good opportunities to target a proportion of this domestic market demand on a competitive basis, thus leading to increased self-reliance. Many of the skills required have been lost and poverty has forced many to sell their land. 23. For many farmers, opium production continues to provide the best returns to their farming efforts. Money derived from opium production and trade is also important to the Taliban and other insurgent groups. Few crops can compete with opium but there are experiences emerging from existing programmes, including in Helmand. These indicate that support to high-value chains, from production to market, can provide income profit margins and livelihood options that can become alternatives to opium. High-profit value chains include off-season vegetables, fruits and nuts, while increasing profits for lower-value crops can increase the overall income for farmers thus decreasing the allure of illicit activities. 24. Average agricultural growth at 4.9% has been steady, but volatile and modest. Despite huge investments by Government and partners, progress has not been impressive. Balanced approaches are required, but the analysis is that more attention should be given to supporting the development of the private sector. That includes applying focussed value chain approaches by facilitating access to markets, inputs, services, storage and credit. Strategy, Design and Modalities 25. The strategy is to align to the Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS) and to harmonise with other development partners and Government s undertakings by responding to the Agriculture and Rural Development Cluster s National Priority Programme 2 (NPP-2). Transaction costs will be reduced by contributing to joint-financing arrangements. The design of the programme is to commence with two NPP-2 components supporting existing programmes and one later component supporting the planned joint financing mechanism for general financing the NPP-2. Component 1: Comprehensive Agriculture and Rural Development Facility (CARD-F) 5

9 26. CARD-F is a national programme under an Inter-Ministerial Committee representing the Agricultural and Rural Development Cluster Ministries. DFID is the founding and, except for the Danish pilot in Helmand, the only donor. CARD-F has high government priority and is the mechanism for implementation of the Integrated Rural Development and Marketing sub-component under NPP-2. The programme supports participatory planning processes to identify potential value chains, and develop and finance economic development packages (EDPs) to create commercially viable and sustainable alternatives for farmers to earn licit incomes. The programme has been running for three years during which time 11 EDPs have been identified, five of which are currently being supported. In the value chains supported (rice, dairy, cotton, fruit and vegetables and poultry), legal employment and income opportunities are being generated through more efficient agricultural and rural enterprise markets and production. The programme focuses on developing access to markets, linking with input, storage and service providers, identifying credit opportunities and introducing efficient technical solutions such as low-maintenance, low-cost green houses. Potential exists in CARD-F building synergy with other NPP-2 components, particularly ADF. 27. The total support over the two-year period is planned to be DKK 73 million and would most likely be through a delegated partnership with DFID. Denmark s contribution would support the programme in the second phase of the programme starting in The contribution will be non-earmarked core funding for the national programme. Component 2: Agriculture Development Fund (ADF) 28. The fund is currently receiving on-budget support from USAID s Agriculture Credit Enhancement Programme. The ADF is implementing the NPP-2 Sustainable Agriculture Credit sub-component. To accelerate and increase the volume, value and structure of credit available to rural businesses and financial institutions, the ADF wholesales funds to financial intermediaries for on-lending. They in turn lend money to agricultural entrepreneurs, investors and businesses. The ADF makes a small number of loans directly to agribusinesses and small commercial farmers. It was established in 2010 and as of May 2013, 110 loans have been approved for USD 68 million, and USD 29 million of which has been disbursed. The total number of end beneficiaries of loans is so far estimated at 17, The ADF is overseen by the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL) and managed by the USAID Agricultural Credit Enhancement Programme until its full transition to MAIL. The transition is on-going and expected to be complete by The ADF needs an additional USD 60 million to become sustainable and a multi-donor funding mechanism has been established to receive the new capital required. 30. The level of support proposed is DKK 60 million over two years ( ). Based on existing calculations by USAID and extrapolating those, results directly attributable to Denmark s support as it is described below, would be an additional 7,400 loans being made to farmers organisations and agri-smes. The programme s contribution would be significant and would allow Denmark observer status on the High Council (Board) of the ADF. Component 3: Multi-donor joint financing facility for the NPP The multi-donor facility for general funding of the NPP-2 components is anticipated to be established in late-2014 or Support will be on-budget and not earmarked, but with Denmark having particular interest in the implementation of the Enterprise and Market 6

10 Development Component (EMD). The level of support proposed is DKK 90 million over two years ( ). 32. The EMD component is a well-articulated portfolio of interventions under the four headers: - Sub-component 1: Integrated Rural Economic Development and Marketing (CARD-F). - Sub-component 2: Rural Enterprise Development (AREDP). Support to rural enterprise development through savings groups, access to credit and support to SMEs. - Sub-component 3: Sustainable Agriculture Credit (ADF). - Sub-component 4: Afghanistan Land Authority (ARAZI). The component seeks to increase the amount, quality and security of Government-owned land available for licit economic use and investment. 33. Since both CARD-F and ADF are integral parts of the NPP-2, financing to them would continue in 2016 through the common financing facility. The Afghanistan Land Authority (ARAZI) has not previously received support from Denmark and it is not envisaged that support will be provided until the joint-financing mechanism is in place. The Afghanistan Rural Enterprise Development Programme (AREDP) has previously received support under the Livelihood programme. Some components in the AREDP programme have not been delivering as expected and a redesign is anticipated before a new phase of the programme commence in Disbursement levels are generally low, so no further support is needed in the current phase. Support for the next phase could be considered before the joint-financing is in place for NPP-2, in which case unallocated funds would be applied. Unallocated budget 34. The development environment in Afghanistan is highly dynamic, insecure and uncertain. An Unallocated budget is included to respond to opportunities that might emerge and that would complement the existing interventions as well as ensure flexibility in the insecure and risky environment. A number of green growth opportunities to support agribusinesses performance could arise if the development environment remains stable and programme processes continue to mature. An intervention to promote alternative energy solutions to relieve energy constraints to agribusinesses could be a future opportunity. Supporting a new phase of the AREDP, redesigned to address weaknesses that have been identified, is also a potential opportunity. Should complementing opportunities not arise, it is expected that the unallocated budget would be allocated towards continued support to Component 1 and 2 for 2016 or increased support to the NPP-2 trust fund. Other programmes assessed 35. Consideration has also been given to joining The Netherland s support to technical and vocational training and to providing additional support to the Microfinance Investment Support Facility of Afghanistan. Neither of those undertakings immediately require additional funding. With its private sector focus, the USAID agricultural development portfolio of projects was also considered. They have much to offer in terms of experience being gained, but no immediate need for additional funds. Finally, with energy being a major constraint to rural and business development and with a highly problematic energy infrastructure, an alternative energy initiative was considered, but a current, evident programme was not identified and should therefore be considered for later support instead. 7

11 Technical Assistance 36. In agriculture, rural development and the private sector, technical assistance remains important for programming, capacity development, implementation, management and administration. To allow Denmark to make a contribution to fulfilling that need in a manner that is flexible and responsive to need, a modest budget is included to provide specialist international or national technical assistance, of a short- or long term nature. However, security challenges should be carefully taken into account. Indicators 37. Indicators for the programme will be derived from the CARD-F and ADF documents, and the NPP-2 logical framework. They include changes in licit income and employment (women and youth disaggregated); amount of land cultivated; production and productivity; use of improved seed; volume of credit provision; numbers of SMEs registered; volumes and values exported; and, nutritional status. 38. Based on existing projections by USAID and DFID, the following results would accrue to the programme investment. For the ADF, an additional 7,400 loans to farmers organisations and agri-smes; and, for CARD-F, USD 45 million of benefits at Net Present Value. The results that would be expected from Component 3 and the use of the unallocated funds would be additional to these. 39. All three components will contribute to the realisation of the NPP-2. The expected results from the full financing and implementation of the NPP-2 include: - Sustained growth in legal rural incomes and employment by 28%; - Increased agricultural production and productivity by 20% over 5 years; - Credit system to farmers fully operational with at least USD 90 million of credit; - Decreased local market prices within 10% of the price in the nearest town; - Afghanistan Strategic Grain Reserve fully operational with at least 200,000 MT capacity; - 15,000 hectares of new land area coming into productive use; - Establishment of new community enterprises increased by 30%; and - 18 % voluntary reduction (not including eradication) in cultivation of opium poppy. - Reduction of the unemployment rate by 10%; - Improvement of female participation in economic activities by 5%; - Reduction of imports in basic agricultural products by 20%; - Promoting 3,900 new enterprise groups; - Facilitation and support to 340 SMEs. Preliminary budget 40. The preliminary budget for the programme, by component *, is: All in DKK million Year/ Component or Budget Line Total Percentage 1. EMD Integrated Rural Economic Development and Marketing - CARD-F EMD Sustainable Agricultural Credit - ADF NPP2 Enterprise and Development - Trust Fund Contribution Reviews, studies, evaluations, next phase preparation Technical Assistance and Specialists - Short and Long Term Unallocated Total *by year see paragraph 6 above. 8

12 41. The cost of training and contingencies is included in the budget for each of the components. To be responsive to changing needs, the budget for technical assistance will need to be as flexible as possible. Options for the unallocated funds will be assessed once implementation gets underway. A modest budget to support reviews, evaluations, studies and preparation of the next phase is also included. The budget will be further elaborated during formulation. Management structure 42. A Steering Committee with membership from the embassy in Kabul, Ministry of Finance and relevant line ministries (principally MAIL) will provide overall guidance to the programme, meeting annually to discuss policy and progress, to approve the annual budget and any reallocations of the budget. Staff from the most relevant stakeholder institutions may be invited as observers. Coordination at component level will use existing governance structures. For ADF the High Council, where Denmark will be accorded observer status. For CARD-F, the existing Steering Committee, which Denmark will have the opportunity to join. For an eventual joint financing of the NPP-2 EMD component, whatever governing body is established for that. The Embassy would continue to be active on the development partner group for agriculture and rural development. 43. CARD-F and ADF both use well-elaborated monitoring systems, including contracted third parties to undertake compliance and field monitoring. For the on-budget NPP-2 EMD Component, an assurance of the quality of the Government s monitoring and management systems will be an assumption for the implementation of the joint financing. Relation to other donors 44. Components 1 and 2 are existing undertakings, led by DFID and USAID respectively, while Component 3 would be administered by MAIL and a leading donor, most likely the EU delegation. With its focus on joining existing undertakings, the programme is fully aligned with the other development partners in the sector and to Government s policies, strategies and plans. Transaction costs will be minimised but to continue to be a credible partner in the policy dialogue and with other development partners, the Embassy will need to maintain a qualified presence. 45. An Agriculture Development Partners Group exists that meets monthly and is generally well-functioning. It is primarily attended by the EU (Chair), DFID, USAID, AusAid, Denmark, the Netherlands, Japan, Germany and Italy, while the World Bank participates occasionally. The ADB and UNDP do not attend. 46. The embassy is currently active in the group, and notably because of its commitment to normalisation of development assistance through support to national government programmes and its close relationship to government is considered a trusted partner. Work is being carried out by MAIL to introduce a sector-wide approach comprising programme and steering committees. The embassy plans to partake in this process and as a minimum hold observer status in the relevant committees. Risks, assumptions and prerequisites 47. The basic assumptions for the programme to proceed are that: 1) Government remains committed to agricultural development and private sector approaches for that; 2) the international community s and Government s commitments to the TMAF are maintained; and, 3) the private sector from farmers to processors and traders are willing to invest their time and money. Further, it is important that close cooperation and 9

13 integration with local governance levels are established, specifically with relevant line ministry offices in the provinces, for the programmes to become sustainable and part of the overall Government structures. 48. Development assistance in Afghanistan today is a high-risk undertaking given the volatile security situation, the uncertainty about the outcomes of the upcoming elections in 2014, and national security after the withdrawal of international troops. Weaknesses in budget execution, service delivery and corruption are also risks to the programme. 49. A significant worsening of the security situation would most likely infer a reduction in investment in agriculture, a reduced ability to produce and market value-added products, and increased food insecurity. An increase in poppy production would also be expected. The ability to run field programmes would be limited and the innovation of new approaches halted. Development assistance would give way to humanitarian assistance. 50. The following table summarises the risks to the programme, and their mitigation: Risk Level Response 1. Decline in national security and Flexibility in programme design that allows shifting civil order. Major resources between components. Accept reduced ambitions and, worst-case scenario, implement using nongovernmental modalities. Nationalise / indigenise by building national and local staff capacities. New activities (eg. renewable energy) unlikely. In an extreme instance, the inability to provide field support, monitor, evaluate and verify prudent fund use 2. Economic growth rates stagnate or decline. Markets contract. Investment confidence dwindles. 3. Corruption and other governance failures worsen. 4. Development partners and government fail to identify a joint financing mechanism for NPP Development of MAIL and DAIL capacities slower than anticipated and needed to keep the NPP-2 on-track. Minor Major Minor Minor could result in programme closure. Preparedness to scale down expectations. Development innovations (eg. renewable energy) unlikely. Flexibility in programme design that allows shifting resources between components. Accept reduced ambitions and, worst-case scenario, implement using nongovernmental modalities. Continue to maintain strong controls on procurement and financial management. Encourage the use of innovative monitoring. Conservatism in initiating Component 3. In an extreme instance, this could result in programme closure. No initiation of Component 3 Conservatism in initiating Component 3. Continue to promote and support robust producer, SME and trade activities that are less reliant on public service provision and rather use commercial or business interests and motivation. 51. The risk environment is in line with Denmark s commitments to support economic development in fragile states, as expressed in its Peace and Stabilisation policy. The new Danida Risk Management Tool will constitute the basis of the risk assessment to be elaborated during programme formulation. 10

14 Annex 1: Process Action Plan Title of programme support: Afghanistan Growth and Employment Date: 24/ Activity/Output Timing Unit responsible Status (Available / to be prepared) Preparation phase Sector/thematic study April 2012 May, August, October, 2012 January 2012 July 2013 Evaluation Unit, MFA PRT Advisor, Helmand PRT Done Assessment according to the ten budget support principles Embassy Included Concept Note in Gender Equality Plan July 2013 Embassy Included in Concept Note Environmental screening note January 2012 Embassy Included in July 2013 Concept Note Other preparatory studies Concept note July 2012 Embassy Done Programme Committee Meeting August 2013 KVA/MFA Confirmed (Min. 1 year before Board presentation) Formulation and appraisal phase Organisational capacity assessment(s). (List the specific capacity assessment activities) Draft partner programme documentation / Component descriptions Draft Danida Programme Support Document Appraisal process - Appraisal mission - Other appraisal activities Appraisal report Meeting of the Board of Danida and minutes Final partner programme documentation / component descriptions Final Danida Programme Support Document Board Presentation Note forwarded to the Board of Danida Ministers cover for Appropriations Formal agreement with partners September- October 2013 September- October 2013 September- November 2013 November 2013 November January 2014 February 2014 February-March 2014 February-March 2014 March 2014 March-April 2014 April-May 2014 GoA, other donors, joint donor, Embassy/Consultants Partner Embassy/Consultants UFT UFT or joint MFA/UGS Partner, Embassy/Consultants Embassy Embassy Embassy Embassy 11

15 Annex 2: Contents of Assessment according to the ten budget support principles Assessment according to relevant principles at sector/thematic level 3. Solid poverty reduction strategy and the will to implement it The ANDS, the ANDS is the Afghanistan s Poverty Reduction Strategy Plan, from 2008 sets out the strategic goals and is the guiding framework for development cooperation in Afghanistan. The ANDS has been widely endorsed, but lacked concrete plans for operationalisation of the development priorities. The Kabul Process, conceptualised in 2009, set out to operationalise the ANDS. At the Kabul Conference (held in July 2010), the Afghan Government translated ANDS development priorities into 22 National Priority Programs or NPPs. NPPs reflect shorter and medium terms goals for different sectors and are supported by inter-ministerial cluster coordination and should be developed in a sustainable and fiscally responsible manner. The Agriculture and Rural Development Cluster s priorities for the implementation of the ANDs are outlined in three NPPs, for agriculture, water resources and infrastructure. These are coherent and align with higher levels of policy. The AGE programme will align with NPP-2, the National Comprehensive Agriculture Production and Market Development Program The Kabul Process has re-vitalised the international commitment to the Afghan ANDS, but with much more emphasis on Afghan-led process. The Kabul Process, and in particular the NPPs, is a welcome step forward in terms of building consensus around Afghanistan s national development strategy and define concrete steps on how to reach the country s development goals. While political commitment has been expressed throughout the Process, the capacity of the administration to implement that remains problematic, not in the least in the Ministry of Agriculture, MAIL. A Capacity Building for Results programme for MAIL is in draft. Its successful implementation will be critical to increasing on-budget and later sector budget support in the sector. 4. Positive experiences with development cooperation generally and budget support specifically, as well as ongoing documentation of concrete development results Sector budget support has been considered and is not assessed as a feasible option due to the lack of capacity and weak PFM in the relevant ministries, in particular MAIL. The response to the increased need for harmonisation, alignment and on-budget support is articulated in progressively funding on-budget through the Ministry of Finance and the use of trust funds. 12

16 Budget support is neither considered by other donors in the sector, nor by the relevant ministries at this point. Presently, focus among donors is on establishing trust fund arrangements and channelling funds through these while raising the level of discretionary funds available for the government. However, several high-profile on-budget ARTF financed programmes for in the agricultural and rural sector have performed poorly in terms of budget management and this experience leads the WB to conclude that the ARTF will not take additional funds for financing NPP-2. Therefore, planning for another financing mechanism for NPP-2 has started, most likely in the form of a trust fund administered by the EU. An Assessment of Public Financial Management in the Education Sector was carried out in 2012 and included the above reservations of sector budget support, though the Ministry of Education is considered more capable than many other ministries in PFM. The study included an assessment of the five sector budget support principles. Currently, CARD-F is not on-budget, but when MAIL s capacity allows and when general issues around budget execution are resolved, then CARD-F is expected to come on-budget. ADF is currently on-budget funded through the Ministry of Finance and operating as a fund. Multi-donor financing mechanisms have recently been established for both CARD-F and ADF. Component 3 will be on-budget joint financing by development partners, administered through the aforementioned trust fund arrangement or similar. 8. Expert appraisal of quality and capacity in public financial management The latest PEFA is from 2008 and was generally positive, though with issues around budget credibility remaining problematic: With its 2012 corruption perception ranking of 174/174 indicating a very serious problem that is a challenge to the credibility of the Government and its administration, GoA has taken steps to counter this major challenge through different anti-corruption measures (e.g. 13

17 the Strategy and Policy for Anti-Corruption and Administrative Reform). Signs of improvements are that a growing number of international partners increasingly use national systems to channel the support to the Afghan Government, well aware that finance and procurement processes can still be improved. This implies that there are still risks attached while operating in Afghanistan, from traditional projects to on-budget support mechanism. There are on-going efforts to improve PFM in Afghanistan, most notably through the Public Financial Management Reform (PFMR), financed through the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF) and managed by the World Bank. The PFMR addresses fiscal sustainability through strengthened domestic revenue collection and aims at developing capacity to improve budget execution. Capacity to implement effective programming and increasing accountability and transparency in public finances are other aims of the PFMR. There are already signs of increased capacity as budget expenditures have improved by an estimated 10-20% according to MoF. The relevant ministries, particularly MAIL, are suffering from low capacity, including in PFM. At this point, budget support does not seem relevant, while on-budget support will increasingly prepare the ministries for more PFM responsibility and involvement and in the long term possibly sector budget support. 9. Mutual observance of agreed obligations Currently there are no mechanism in place to observe donor performance against Afghan and international commitments (other than the TMAF). The Joint Review might be an opportunity to promote the harmonisation agenda further in Afghanistan. There is a development partner group for agriculture, though the UN and ADB are absent in that. There is no Sector Working Group yet, but there are moves afoot to create one. In the absence of a SWG, GoA s capacity to direct development and to be more insistent on pursuing aid effectiveness is underdeveloped. 10. Consensus among all budget support donors regarding approach (incl. rules for transfer and monitoring) and conditions for general budget support There are currently no budget support donors in the agricultural sector and it is not foreseen that budget support will be introduced in the short term. However, on-budget support has been increasing and trust fund modalities are gradually being introduced and used for support. Summary of the SBS assessments Sector Budget Support does not appear feasible at present and is unlikely to become so over the period of programme support. However, it is envisaged that in the third year of the programme, support will be given through an on-budget joint-financing mechanism to support the general implementation of the Agricultural and Rural Development National 14

18 Priority Programme 2. Such a mechanism will increase the budgetary discretion of the Government and could in the longer term eventually pave the way for the introduction of sector budget support in the agricultural and rural sector. 15

19 Annex 3: Afghanistan Growth and Employment Programme Gender Equality Rolling Plan Basic information Programme title Growth and Employment Programme Sector Growth and Employment - Agriculture Country Afghanistan Budget (Danida s contribution) DKK 260 million Starting date and duration April/May 2014 Phases in the programme cycle and documentation Preparation phase GERP annexed to the concept note Action required Include the following information: Donor harmonisation and alignment in the area of gender. Gender equity is a policy priority and there are strategies, action plans and institutional arrangements to address the issue, including in the ANDS, The National Action Plan for Women in Afghanistan (NAPWA) , and in the National Priority Programmes for agriculture and rural development. In the agriculture sector, all significant donors buy-in to the importance of gender equity in Afghanistan s transformation, aligning themselves with GoA s policies and strategies. Until further progress is made in the normalisation of development, harmonisation and coordination of efforts will remain less than optimal. Availability of sex-disaggregated data. In all of the interventions proposed for AGE support, the reporting of sex-disaggregated data is standard practice in terms of recording participation, eg. attendance at trainings or meetings, savings, accessing credit, membership in enterprise groups, employees, etc. ADF-ACE, CARD-F and AREDP consistently present case studies of activities that have benefited women. The quality of the data and of collection methods has not been assessed. There is less availability of data at outcome and impact level. Assessment of major gender issues at national and sector level. With a gender inequality ranking of 175/186, it is an important characteristic of poverty in Afghanistan. Only 3.3% of permanent fulltime workers are female: - the vast majority of women do not participate in paid economic activities making them highly dependant on their husbands or families. Female headed households are further disadvantaged. Women s participation in decision making in the household, at community level and in politics, is very low. In only 2.8% of firms do women participate in ownership. Land and livestock are key assets for rural livelihoods and for rural employment and though there is a growing body of work on land and, Responsibility The Danish Representation 16

20 Phases in the programme cycle and documentation Action required to a lesser extent, livestock issues in Afghanistan, researchers say that further work to understand the gender dimensions is required. Opportunities/constraints for addressing these issues. When surveyed, Afghans respond that they would like a more equitable society, but bringing about this change is clearly challenged by entrenched tradition and beliefs, capacities, resources and other priorities. For real economic empowerment of women, land, labour, finance and product markets need to be made to work for them. The programme will prioritise addressing gender equality, but sustaining progress will require that the transformation of Afghanistan is profound and lasting; beyond what can be influenced by this programme alone. Several of ADF, AREDP and CARD-F s interventions are in areas known to have a high-level of impact on improving gender equity. For example: savings groups and providing access to credit; micro enterprises for food production and processing that can be done close to the family home, such as poultry or processing and drying of fruits and nuts; establishing enterprise groups; and, training and education. Value chain approaches that are based on a careful analysis of gender issues and opportunities can also go a long way to increasing the likelihood of positive gender outcomes, where the backyard poultry value chain is a good example of that. Gender Studies to be used/up-dated/prepared including Country Gender Analysis (Gender Toolbox booklet 4), Sector Gender Analysis (Gender Toolbox booklet 5). The World Bank s March 2005 National Reconstruction and Poverty Reduction the Role of Women in Afghanistan s Future is a major piece of work that also informed GoA s National Action Plan for the Women of Afghanistan (NAPWA) During the period of programme formulation, a more complete mapping of the analysis will be undertaken. Proposed gender equality objectives/outputs to be addressed by the programme. The monitoring and evaluation framework for NPP-2 will include gender-segregated indicators to monitor effective and equitable participation of women in the agriculture and rural development sector. It is proposed that the AGE programme adopt those. The framework remains to be elaborated but several indicators are mentioned, for which gender disaggregated data should be presented: Improved income performance is measured by incremental gross income generated by beneficiaries; Improved employment performance, given by number of full-time equivalent jobs created. Examples of other indicators that would be expected are: women s access to credit; women s employment; and, women s participation in trainings, enterprise groups, governing committees; During programming, the gender equality objectives and outputs will Responsibility 17

21 Phases in the programme cycle and documentation Formulation and appraisal phase GERP and programme support document, partner document/ component description Appraisal report Implementation phase Review Aide Memoire Completion phase Completion report Action required be more completely elaborated, also to ensure alignment and harmonisation. Describe how gender issues will be addressed in the programme, Specify gender specific purpose, strategy, activities, expected outputs and financial allocations of planned interventions (Gender Toolbox booklet 5 provides examples of how to mainstream gender in selected sectors). List identified gender equality indicators aligned with national targets on gender. List how gender equality will be included in proposed monitoring and evaluation systems. Include the scope of gender-specific work in TOR for the appraisal mission. Assessment of the proposed objective, strategy, activities and expected outputs as regards mainstreaming of gender in the programme. Revision of the draft programme document as needed. Assess whether gender has been considered in the preparation of action plans and in the reporting format as part of regular reporting and monitoring mechanisms. Assess progress achieved in addressing gender issues in the programme; achievements of relevant outputs/activities etc. Recommend changes as required. Document whether the programme has achieved its gender objectives using specific data. Responsibility The Danish Representation The appraisal team The Danish Representation The Danish Representation The review team The review team The Danish Representation 18