The OECD-DAC Evaluation Framework for Budget Support: Some lessons from Mali Andrew Lawson Director, Fiscus Limited

Transcription

1 The OECD-DAC Evaluation Framework for Budget Support: Some lessons from Mali Andrew Lawson Director, Fiscus Limited 2, HOLLOWAY ROAD, WHEATLEY, OX33 1NH Oxford, United Kingdom T: M : fiscus@fiscus.org.uk

2 Presentation Outline 1. Objectives: GBS/ SBS as contributions to a Government strategy 2. How budget support works understanding its effects 3. The 5 levels of the OECD-DAC evaluation framework 4. Conclusions on impact from Tanzania, Ghana & the IDD 7 country evaluation 5. How to improve attention to Impact 6. Tracing funding : Mali 7. Analysing outcomes: Mali 2

3 1. Objectives of Budget Support Budget Support is a contribution to a partner Government s strategy & programme of spending: It therefore shares its Objectives! Thus, Budget Support has four levels of objectives: In short term: empower Government in its relations with donors (giving power over use of funding) In medium term: transform the quality of Governance (By using a transparent budget/ policy process) In medium to long term: to enhance Government s capacity to deliver services and reduce poverty: In long term: promote growth & reduce poverty. 3

4 2. How Budget Support works: 3 types of effects Flows of Funds effects: Additional, Predictable Funding for public spending; More fungible funding through the budget rather than through earmarked projects Endogenous policy & institutional effects: The budget becomes more important Public policy processes become more transparent Exogenous policy & institutional effects Policy dialogue (and conditionality) changes policy choices External technical assistance strengthens processes 4

5 3. 5 levels of OECD-DAC framework Level 1: The GBS/ SBS inputs Level 2: The Direct Effects (on the relationship between external assistance, the national budget and national policy processes) Level 3: The Outputs (consequent changes in the financing and institutional structure for public spending and public policy) Level 4: The Outcomes (an enhancement in the capacity of Government to promote growth and poverty reduction). Level 5: The Impacts (in terms of sustainable economic growth, poverty reduction, and in the case of SBS, the achievement of sector development objectives.) 5

6 GBS/ SBS Inputs Non -GBS Aid Direct Effects On Aid/ Budget structure Domestic Policy & Spending Decisions External factors Induced Outputs (Strengthened budget & policy processes) Outcomes (better spending) & Impacts (poverty reduction)

7 4. Addressing the evaluation task A three-step Approach: Step One: - Evaluate the Inputs, Direct Effects and Outputs of Budget Support (Levels 1-3): Emphasis on Relevance, Efficiency, Effectiveness Step Two: - Evaluate the Outcomes & Impacts of the (GBS-supported) Government Programme (Levels 4 & 5) Emphasis on Impact & Sustainability Step Three: Assess links between GBS/ SBS and the Outcomes/ Impacts (Attribution) Emphasis on Relevance & Effectiveness. 7

8 5. Conclusions on Impact from Tanzania ; Ghana ; IDD ( ) Evidence of positive contributions to outcomes/ impacts: Reduced arrears & reduced domestic debt, with positive effects on private sector liquidity & composition of spending: - especially Tanzania & Ghana Increases in poverty-related spending, especially Education with resulting expansion of enrolments + per pupil spending: most past evaluations a) notable in Tanzania, Uganda, Ghana Generalised improvements in PFM systems: especially Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Mozambique. 8

9 5. Conclusions on Impact from Reservations about Poverty impact: Tanzania: - Evaluation expressed concerns over prourban focus of spending and over slowness of agricultural marketing liberalisation Ghana: Evaluation expressed concerns over weakness of GPRS and poverty policy in general and over policy mistakes in Health existing evaluations b) Seven country study: emphasised data difficulties. None of the evaluations were sufficiently well resourced to address Impact effectively. In all cases primary interest of audience was on inputs/ outputs & process issues. 9

10 6. How to improve assessment of Quantify more carefully the changes in funding composition (GBS/ Other Aid/ Domestic resources) and the changes in spending/ borrowing experienced Dedicate resources to examine Outcomes & Impact of Government Budget & Policy Support : Impact : Examine evolution of poverty and how it might be related to policy changes: useful to time GBS evaluation to coincide with Poverty surveys Examine sector specific outcomes: Education, Health, Infrastructure, Agriculture again timing evaluation to coincide with PERs/ sector work Examine changes in environment for private sector development and their relationship to policy changes. 10

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