ﺑﺴﻢ اﷲ اﻟﺮﺣﻤﻦ اﻟﺮﺣﯿﻢ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﮐﻼن اﻗﺘﺼﺎد رﺷﺪ )ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ( ﺳﯿﺪ ﻋﻠﯽ ﻣﺪﻧﯽ زاده

Transcription

1 ﺑﺴﻢ اﷲ اﻟﺮﺣﻤﻦ اﻟﺮﺣﯿﻢ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﮐﻼن اﻗﺘﺼﺎد رﺷﺪ )ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ( ﺳﯿﺪ ﻋﻠﯽ ﻣﺪﻧﯽ زاده

2 ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ ﺣﻘﺎﯾﻖ آﻣﺎري رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺣﻘﺎﯾﻖ آﻣﺎري ﻧﺎﺑﺮاﺑﺮﯾﻬﺎي اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي رﺷﺪ اﺟﺰاي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﺮﺧﯽ ﺗﻌﺎرﯾﻒ رﺷﺪ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ رﺷﺪ

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37 Consumption and GDP Dollars (Billions) C Source: The Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP

38 Consumption, Investment and GDP Dollars (Billions) Source: The Bureau of Economic Analysis I C GDP

39 Consumption, Investment, Government Expenditures and GDP Dollars (Billions) G Source: The Bureau of Economic Analysis I C GDP

40 Consumption, Investment, Government Expenditure, Net Export and GDP Dollars (Billions) NX Source: The Bureau of Economic Analysis G I C GDP

41 Annual Real and Nominal GDP Dollars (Billions) Real Source: The Bureau of Economic Analysis Nominal

42 Quarterly Real and Nominal GDP Dollars (Bilions) Real Source: The Bureau of Economic Analysis Nominal

43 Wages Compensation Per Hour Source: The Federal Reserve Unit Labor Cost

44 Non-Farm Employees People Source: The Federal Reserve

45 Unemployment Rate Percent Source: The Federal Reserve

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48 Growth theory is about the LONG RUN. 50, 100, 1000 years! Business cycles is about the SHORT RUN. 5 years. Our main question is then: what determines the growth rate of different economies?

49 A useful approximation: log (1 + g) ~=g if g is close to 0 Define: gt is the growth rate of GDP from t to t + 1 Yt+1 = (1 + gt)yt log Yt+1 -log Yt =log(1+gt)~=gt Example: Suppose g is constant: Using the growth definition we obtain Y1 = (1 + g) Y0 Y2 = (1 + g) Y1 = (1 + g)2 Y0 Log Yt=tg+logY0 Yt = (1 + g)t Y0

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51 Determinants of Growth Is there some action a government of India could take that would lead the Indian economy to grow like Indonesia's or Egypt's? If so, what exactly? If not, what is it about the nature of India that makes it so? The consequences for human welfare involved in questions like these are simply staggering: Once one starts to think about them, it is hard to think of anything else. R.E. Lucas, Jr. (1988), On the Mechanics of Economic Development, Journal of Monetary Economics citations on Google Scholar!

52 Determinants of Growth Physical Capital: Machines, Buildings, Infrastructure. Human Resources: Labor supply, education, motivation, human capital. Technology: Science, engineering, management technique Natural Resources: Land, oil, minerals, quality of the enviroment. Institutions: Property rights, legal system, patent and copyright law. Culture: Social capital, entepreneurial energy, the protestant work ethic and the spirit of capitalism (Max Weber)

53 Sources for figures Barro, Robert J Growth in a cross section of countries, QJE Chari, Kehoe, and McGratten The poverty of nations: a quantitative exploration, NBER Working paper Easterly, William, et. al Good policy or good luck? JME Fischer, Stanley Globalization and its challenges, (Ely Lecture), AER. Hall, Robert E., and Charles I. Jones Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others? Quarterly Journal of Economics 114: Lucas, Robert E Trade and the Diffusion of the Industrial Revolution, NBER Working Paper No Parente and Prescott Changes in the wealth of nations, FR Bank Mpls Quarterly Review. Pritchett, Lant Divergence, big time. Journal of Economic Perspectives. Sachs, Jeffrey and Andrew Warner Economic reform and the process of globalization, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1: Sala-i-Martin, Xavier The world distribution of income: falling poverty and... convergence, period, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121: Barro, Robert J, 2013, Intermediate Macro Acemoglu, Introduction to Modern Economic Growth (2008) R.E. Lucas, Jr. (1988), On the Mechanics of Economic Development, Journal of Monetary Economics.