Namibia Mid Year Budget Review 2017/18. Standard Bank presentation by Ms Naufiku Hamunime, Economist, Standard Bank
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1 Namibia Mid Year Budget Review 2017/18 Standard Bank presentation by Ms Naufiku Hamunime, Economist, Standard Bank
2 EMERGING OUT OF RECESSION: THE CASE FOR INDUSTRY MID YEAR BUDGET REVIEW November 2017 Naufiku Hamunime
3 With primary commodities accounting for over 50 percent of exports, the Namibian economy remains at the bottom of the global value chain. - Calle Schlettwein, Budget Speech, March 2017
4 NAMIBIA S MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE Gross Domestic Product (%) Fishing & Mining Namdeb, Skorpion Zinc Contraction in all Primary Sectors Construction & Consumption Boom CSO Diamond Quota -1.8 Financial crisis The perfect storm
5 DRIVERS OF NAMIBIA S RECESSION Construction Slowdown Reduced Government Spending
6 HISTORICAL FISCAL TRENDS: WAGE BILL PERSONNEL EXPENDITURE AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL EXPENDITURE (%) Filled Staffing Positions by Vote as at 2017 Works Agriculture, Water & Environment & Tourism Urban & Rural Health & Social Services Education, Arts & Culture Finance Personnel Expenditure (N$ m) Total Expenditure (N$ m) 6,129 6,725 7,708 8,920 10,693 11,987 14,346 17,535 21,988 24,000 24,442 28,095 15,155 17,827 22,464 25,353 28,891 37,672 40,157 47,576 58,846 61,946 61,495 62,541 Defence Safety & Security Home Affairs &
7 HISTORICAL FISCAL TRENDS: DEVELOPMENT VS. OPERATIONAL BUDGET 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Budget Breakdown Operational Development Development Budget by Subdivision 19% 4% 77% Goods & Services Acquisition of Capital Assets Capital Transfers Development (N$ m) 1,876 2,075 2,966 4,472 5,221 8,070 6,715 8,146 8,691 9,812 6,933 6,306 Operational (N$ m) 11,800 14,550 18,167 19,461 22,353 27,771 31,045 37,183 50,154 52,133 54,562 55,427
8 HISTORICAL FISCAL TRENDS: STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES 2016 Allocations to State Owned Enterprises (N$'000) NTA, SME, NSFAF, Transnamib, Namibia Airports Company, Air Namibia, NUST, UNAM, NBC,
9 HISTORICAL FISCAL TRENDS: SOCIAL SPENDING 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Budget Share by Sector Social Public Safety Administrative Economic Infrastructure Social Sector Education, Arts and Culture Gender Equality Health& Social Services Sport, Youth & National Services Veterans Affairs Poverty Eradication Higher Education, Training & Innovation Public Safety Home Affairs Safety & Security Defence Justice Judiciary ACC Attorney General Infrastructure Sector Works Transport ICT Economic Sector Finance Mines & Energy Environment & Tourism Industrialization & Trade Agriculture, Water & Forestry Fisheries Land Reform NPC Public Enterprise Administration Office of the President Office of the Prime Minister National Assembly Auditor General International Relations National Council Labour Relations Urban & Rural Dev Electoral Commission
10 DRIVERS OF NAMIBIA S RECESSION Construction Slowdown Reduced Government Spending
11 MANAGING UNDER RECESSION Opportunity to Restructure Reduce Expenditure Improve Allocative Efficiency Increase Productive Efficiency
12 REDUCE EXPENDITURE Total Expenditure (N$ m)
13 IMPROVE ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY PERSONNEL EXPENDITURE AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL EXPENDITURE (%) /18 Share of Downward Revisions (N$, %) 25% 121,354, ,441,000 75% Development Operational Allocations to State Owned Enterprises 100% 80% 60% 40% Budget Share by Sector % % Social Public Safety Administrative Economic Infrastructure
14 MANAGING UNDER RECESSION Opportunity to Restructure Prioritize Reduce Expenditure Industrial Dev Improve Allocative Efficiency Increase Productive Efficiency
15 VISION 2030 Namibia aims to be a knowledge-based industrialized country where manufactured goods and services constitute 80% of GDP, and processed goods account for at least 70% of total exports. PERCENTAGE CONTRIBUTION TO GDP (%) 2016 TOTAL EXPORTS (%) Manufacturing Mining & Quarrying Minerals Food and Live Animals Manufactured Products Re-exports Other Commodities
16 BUDGETING FOR INDUSTRIALISATION BUDGET ALLOCATIONS AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL EXPENDITURE (%) Industrialisation, Trade & SME Development Safety & Security Defence
17 NAMIBIA S INDUSTRIAL POTENTIAL Lions of the Move II: Realizing The Potential of Africa s Economies McKinsey Global Institute, September 2016 industrialization. In the first phase, sectors in which In line with Namibia s industrial policy, Growth at home advocates a targeted approach towards Namibia already has some sort of comparative advantage will be targeted. These sectors include agriculture and agro-processing, chemical industries, mineral processing and automotive industry. - Growth at Home Industrial Strategy Page 7, 2015
18 NAMIBIA S INDUSTRIAL POTENTIAL 2016 GDP contribution of Agriculture, manufactured food and beverages Total workforce employed in Agriculture & Fishing Agriculture, Water & Forestry Expenditure by Major Category (N$ 000) Capital Transfers Acquisition of Capital Assets Subsidies & Current Transfers Goods & Other Services Construction & Renovations Personnel Expenditure
19 MANAGING UNDER RECESSION Opportunity to Restructure Reduce Expenditure Improve Allocative Efficiency Increase Productive Efficiency
20 THANK YOU 5 Simmonds Street Johannesburg 2001 / P O Box 7725 Johannesburg 2000 Tel +27 (0) / Fax +27 (0) / Mobile +27 (0) standardbank.com
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