Victor Shkulev. Hachette Filipacchi Shkulev / InterMediaGroup President. ERA Annual Meeting

Transcription

1 Victor Shkulev Hachette Filipacchi Shkulev / InterMediaGroup President ERA Annual Meeting Verona, Italy, October 23 rd,

2 RUSSIAN ECONOMY: Macro Figures (est) 2008 (f) 2009 (f) (f) GNP Growth Rate 7,3% 7,1% 6,4% 6,6% 6,5% 5,7% 5,3% 5,2% Inflation 13,7% 11,7% 10,9% 9,7% 7,5% 6,5% 6,0% 5,5% Average Personal Income, $ $180 $244 $308 $384 $491 $588 $665 $729 Real Personal Income Growth Rate 10,9% 10,9% 12,6% 12,6% 13,4% 8,3% 8,0% 7,4% Population (mln) 144,2 143,5 142,8 142,4 141,9 141,4 141,0 140,6 Rate RUR/USD 30,68 27,99 27,80 27,00 26,50 25,90 26,40 27,50 2 Source: Russian Ministry of Economy and Trade, 2007

3 GDP Growth Rate in Russia vs. Europe and US 7,3% 7,1% 6,4% 6,6% 6,7% 5,1% 4,7% 4,4% 3,1% 3,2% 3,4% 3,2% 2,0% 2,5% 2,7% 1,8% 2,1% 2,5% 1,3% 1,4% 0,3% est. Europe USA Russia 3 Source:

4 GDP Growth in Russia ( ) GDP, bln RUB % +6.4% +7.1% % % +5.7% +5.7% % (est) 2008 (f) 2009 (f) 2010 (f) 2015(f) 2020 (f) 4 Source: Russian Ministry of Economy and Trade, 2007

5 Russian advertising market growth AD MARKET, bln RUR +12% +18% % % % % % % % (est) 2008 (f) 2009 (f) 2010 (f) 5 Source: AKAR Russia

6 Russian PRESS advertising market growth bln RUR +11% +16% % % % % +20% 34,6 +14% 39,3 44,6 23,8 28, % (est) 2008 (f) 2009 (f) 2010 (f) 6 Источник: TNS Gallup NRS * Urban population , 16+

7 Russian PRESS Audience Mln readers mln. ALL PRESS All press Newspapers Magazines 27 mln. NEWSPAPERS Thousand people mln. MAGAZINES vs vs 2004 All press 15% 9% Newspapers 31% 16% Magazines 26% 8%

8 Paper consumption growth (kg/capita) Russia vs. Europe & US -5.8% -1.1% -1.6% +1.1% -3.3% +1.4% +0.2% +2.3% +1.2% +1.7% +10.7% +10.8% +13.6% +7.1% +7.8% Europe 123,8 125,5 125,8 128,7 130,2 132,4 North America 325,5 306,7 303,3 298,3 301,6 291,6 Russia 23,3 25,8 28,6 32,5 34,8 37,5 8 Source:

9 Paper consumption (kg/capita) vs. GDP Russia vs. Europe&US (2020 forecast) Russia Source: Jaakko Pöyry Consulting, 2006

10 Media penetration: Russia vs. France Population 16 + Russia Population 15 + France TV (total): 88,9 % 96,8% Cable / Satellite 10,7 % 28,5 % Radio (daily) 78.3 % 83.0 % Magazines 47,4 % 94,8 % Newspapers 10,3 % 47.4 % Internet (monthly) 21, 9% 52.9% 10 Source: TNS Gallup, NRS all urban population 07/2, AEPM 06; Euro EPIQ 05/06; Médiamétrie : Radio Sept05/ June 2006, TV 2006, Internet November 2006

11 Print media penetration per type Russia vs. France Population 16 + Russia Population 15 + France Weekly magazine 25,3 % 84,0 % Monthly magazine 29,2 % 70.0 % Dailies 10,3 % 47.4 % 11 ИсточникTNS Gallup, NRS all urban population 07/2, AEPM 06; Euro EPIQ 06/07;

12 Print media penetration per type Russia vs. France Population 16 + Russia Population 15 + France Weekly magazine 25,3 % 84,0 % Small market share & low penetration Why? Shortage or lack of HSWO and Rotogravure printing capacities 12 ИсточникTNS Gallup, NRS all urban population 07/2, AEPM 06; Euro EPIQ 06/07;

13 Total Square 17.1 mln km 2 Time Zones 11 Russian Federation From West to East > km St.-Petersburg 650 km Moscow km Novosibirsk km Vladivostok 13 Source:

14 Population spread in Russia 13.5 mln people 90.3 mln people 12.2 mln. people 19.6 mln people 6.5 mln people 14 Source: GosComStat Russia, 2006

15 SC & LWC Paper Supply Chain Scandinavia China 15

16 Printing industry globalization key factors cheap work force with appropriate qualification acceptable time and price for delivery raw materials at reasonable price competition (price, quality, service) 16

17 Printing industry globalization: impact on Russia High quality and children books South-East Asia Monthlies Poland, Finland, Germany Weeklies, Dailies, cheap books locally 17

18 Printing facilities vs. population Russia vs. Europe (16 page HSWO press per 1 mln.) 9,0 8,0 7,8 7,0 7,0 7,1 6,0 5,6 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 Germany France UK Italy Russia 0,3 18 Source: ERA List of offset printers, 2004 & HFS-IMG internal data, 2007

19 The market requirements: better printing quality demand better paper quality demand pagination variability format variability 19

20 Printing of Russian magazines abroad (Import, $mln) % +4% +21% +5% +16% +14% +14% Forecast 2008 F 2009 F 2010 F 20 Источник: Federal Agency for the Press and Mass Communications

21 Russian publishing market leaders (2006) Average Circulation Total Pages Edition type Argumenty i Fakty Weekly Newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda (W) Weekly Newspaper ZhiznZaVsyuNedelyu Weekly Newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets Weekly Newspaper Ekonomika i Zhizn Weekly Newspaper Trud Weekly Newspaper 21 Source: TNS Gallup Adfact

22 Russian publishing market leaders (2006) Average Circulation Total Pages Edition type Antenna-Telesem Weekly Magazine & Newspaper 7 Dney (rotogravure) Weekly Magazine Liza Weekly Magazine 22 Source: TNS Gallup Adfact

23 Russian publishing market leaders (2006) Average Circulation Total Pages Edition type Cosmopolitan Monthly Magazine Za rulem (rotogravure) Monthly Magazine Glamour (rotogravure) Monthly Magazine Vokrug Sveta Monthly Magazine 23 Source: TNS Gallup Adfact

24 Antenna Telesem copies 24

25 new 4-color CSWO printing houses St. Petersburg Moscow N.Novgorod Ekaterinburg Novosibirsk 25

26 26 ANTENNA TELESEM CIRCULATION GROWTH

27 2007: Circulation issues Audience people Distribution 66 cities in Russia and 4 cities in CIS and Baltic Manufacturing 40 printing houses 27

28 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! 28