Microdata on household vulnerability in Canada: 1999 to 2014
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1 Microdata on household vulnerability in Canada: 1999 to 2014 Jennifer Robson (Carleton) David Rothwell (Oregon State) Canadian Economics AssociaGon OHawa June, 2016
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5 Big trends: ü Income poverty down ü Net worth up ü DSR up How are subgroups doing? Who is vulnerable?
6 Microdata too Assets matter Basket of measures Liquidity Financial services Ability to handle shocks Missed payments
7 Data sources Survey of Financial Security (SFS) 1999, n= 21, , n= 9, , n= 20,000 Canadian Financial Capability Survey (CFCS) 2008, n= 27, , n= 12,600 Income, assets and debts of economic family Demographic characteristics of individual respondents Mix of family and individual financial resources and behaviors Individual knowledge
8 Indicators Indicator Description Source 1. At least 10% of assets are liquid Based on ratio of liquid assets to total assets. Total assets include pension assets on a termination basis. Liquid assets include cash deposits, investments outside of RRSPs, RESP savings and term desposits. 2. Negative or $0 net worth Based on equivalized net worth (including pensions). SFS 3. Low income and net worth Based on equivalized net worth and equivalized family income. Net worth is low if it is $0 or negative. Income is low if it is below ½ of the median or $16, Carrying a credit card balance Based on a $1 or greater balance in debt owed on all credit cards (including store cards). 5. Financial exclusion The respondent reports having no deposit account or no one in the economic family has a credit card. 6. Fringe financial services use 7. Having and sticking to a budget 8. Unable to cover an emergency expense 9. Missed loan or bill payments 10. Missed housing payments The respondent reports personal or family use in the last 12 months of any of payday loans, pawnshops or cheque cashers. The respondent reports that the economic family does have a budget and that it stays within that budget always or usually. The respondent is unable to name one or more methods (ranging from use of savings to formal and informal borrowing) to meet an emergency expense and reports that he or she would not be able to such an expense. The expense is set at $500 if family income is below $60,000 and $5,000 for family income of $60,000 or more. The respondent reports having fallen behind by two months or more on regular loan or bill payments in the last 12 months. The question may refer to either personal or family obligations. The respondent reports having fallen behind by two months or more on regular rental housing or mortgage payments in the last 12 months. The questions may refer to either personal or family obligations. SFS SFS SFS CFCS CFCS CFCS CFCS CFCS CFCS
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12 Trends? Indicator Change? 1. At least 10% of assets are liquid 2. Negative or $0 net worth 3. Low income and net worth 4. Carrying a credit card balance 1999 through Financial exclusion 6. Fringe financial services use 7. Having and sticking to a budget 8. Unable to cover an emergency expense 9. Missed loan or bill payments 2008 through Missed housing payments
13 Independent variables
14 Logistic regression All variables binary Stata version 14 Bootstrap method (replicate weights) Merged models and sub-populations by year
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19 Age Generally good to be older But not terrible to be young Lower odds of: Iliquidity, $0/neg net worth, low net worth + income, CC debts, unable to cover an emergency expense, missed payments Higher odds of financial exclusion in 2008 only and not sticking to budget Higher odds of not sticking to budget and falling behind on loans/bills, behind on housing in 2008 only.
20 Poverty Low income Lower odds: CC debt Illiquidity $0 or negative net worth (?) Higher odds: Financial exclusion Not in budget Unable to cover emergency Missed loan/bills ( 14) Missed housing Low net worth Higher odds: Illiquidity CC debt Social assistance Lower odds: CC debt $0 or negative net worth (?) Higher odds: Illiquidity Financial exclusion Unable to cover emergency Missed loans/bills
21 Homeownership Vaccine or pox? Lower odds of: $0 or negative net worth (?) Low income AND low net worth Financial exclusion Fringe banking Unable to cover emergency Missed loans/bills Missed housing Good news Higher odds of: Illiquidity Not sticking to a budget Not good news
22 Why bother? BeHer pinpoint nature and sources of risk BeHer angcipate demand for social welfare
23 How much bother? The Bank s DSR simulagons use the Ipsos Reid Canadian Financial Monitor (CFM) household microdata because they are available on a regular basis. (Dey, Djoudad and Terajima, 2008)
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